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The Swamp

  • #125,101
  • Sep 26, 2025 4:42am Sep 26, 2025 4:42am
Quoting gatorinla
Its not looking like a bounce.. A unlikely bounce to 1731/51 is a sell area to me something looks to sit at 1651 Above 1736.8 is the Bullish side of it. Not revisiting 1736 dont happen too often (even if it falls after) These mostly get rechecked as R. Than again these last few days of a quarter dont follow a lot of rules. I may be tooting this horn too much. Don't be surprised if it revisits 173x again. It's not unusual. That does not mean to go long.
1651 sustained below is what bears want.
17 hs ago
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,102
  • Sep 26, 2025 4:45am Sep 26, 2025 4:45am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1651 sustained below is what bears want. 17 hs ago
i m not sure if we can close the week below 1651, its ideal situation but recently bear failed to impress every single time and most of the reversal happened on Friday. still recall the nfp pump on 1st Aug which reversed the whole downward movement. I hope we can close neat 1651, a doji will work.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,103
  • Sep 26, 2025 5:19am Sep 26, 2025 5:19am
lets see if it breaks down this time
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,104
  • Sep 26, 2025 5:31am Sep 26, 2025 5:31am
Stops to 1683 for me
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,105
  • Sep 26, 2025 7:37am Sep 26, 2025 7:37am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 1.1600 this week ? still short not taking profits here.
I think we can go lower than 1.16
1.167 good for adding short. not a trading advice
Didn't take any profits on also on UJ. Greedy man
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #125,106
  • Sep 26, 2025 8:01am Sep 26, 2025 8:01am
1691 is curious
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,107
  • Sep 26, 2025 8:17am Sep 26, 2025 8:17am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i m not sure if we can close the week below 1651, its ideal situation but recently bear failed to impress every single time and most of the reversal happened on Friday. still recall the nfp pump on 1st Aug which reversed the whole downward movement. I hope we can close neat 1651, a doji will work.
Lets look at this 1.1556 that needs to close below (to break the q uptrend). You had 1736.9 as a level. The rise from 1736x was about 181 pips. If this is all you have The 2 further numbers are 362 apart. Making the center about 1736.9. So if toward the lower number from the center it to is also 181 pips. The center between these to points in about 1.1646 or 90.25 pips. if you divide it once more.. Its about 45 pips. That can loosely make a place to look for some R about 1691. The green line earlier was a little higher. So if your bullish u want to be above that.. if your bearish you want to be below 1691 and you want to break 1646.. What's the low since starting the move from 1.1918?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,108
  • Sep 26, 2025 8:32am Sep 26, 2025 8:32am
Quoting gatorinla
1694/95ish is that green tl.. {image}
Lets see if it caps the high
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,109
  • Sep 26, 2025 8:34am Sep 26, 2025 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1651 sustained below is what bears want. 17 hs ago
sustained below 1646 would be better. and 1601 may bounce back to 1646
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,110
  • Sep 26, 2025 10:01am Sep 26, 2025 10:01am
The 6h close was 1691
I think the separator was 1691.55.. From the best I can tell. The close sightly below the center
That may give 1646 a better shot, over 1736.9
Its really too close
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,111
  • Sep 26, 2025 10:17am Sep 26, 2025 10:17am
1680 could support,, below could help 1646
The latest day structure was bearish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,112
  • Sep 26, 2025 10:31am Sep 26, 2025 10:31am
Quoting gatorinla
1680 could support,, below could help 1646 The latest day structure was bearish {image}
we need bear to show up but seems like they have taken their profit.
i m not thinking about lower low today but bear needs to close the day/week as low as they possibly can to keep the daily/weekly structure bearish
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,113
  • Sep 26, 2025 10:43am Sep 26, 2025 10:43am
Come on bear!
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,114
  • Sep 26, 2025 2:01pm Sep 26, 2025 2:01pm
So its a bull day to end the week, broke my second downward trendline… 2 more hours to go. But puts 1715 1736 bsck on the table…

bear will have to defend these levels.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,115
  • Edited 2:12pm Sep 26, 2025 2:02pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} we need bear to show up but seems like they have taken their profit. i m not thinking about lower low today but bear needs to close the day/week as low as they possibly can to keep the daily/weekly structure bearish
I got another algo with a different bearish close. a close below that may make 1729 key.. below 1684x it could fall to 1630. Above 1703.4 leans toward 1729.. It has similar levels to 1540.. But this one the q close below 1729 on the bear side.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,116
  • Sep 26, 2025 2:15pm Sep 26, 2025 2:15pm
Quoting johncen
So its a bull day to end the week, broke my second downward trendline… 2 more hours to go. But puts 1715 1736 bsck on the table… bear will have to defend these levels.
The last day structure to me was bearish as was the week. The month bullish but atm pa is below it (pending close Tuesday). The Q May be 1729 or 1556
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,117
  • Sep 26, 2025 2:37pm Sep 26, 2025 2:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The last day structure to me was bearish as was the week. The month bullish but atm pa is below it (pending close Tuesday). The Q May be 1729 or 1556
yea still more a correction to me than reversal, bear flag still the case. 2 more days to go til month end. Let see where we will be!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,118
  • Sep 27, 2025 4:31am Sep 27, 2025 4:31am
big players continued to hold more shorts, both non commercial and commecrcial players added more shorts
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #125,119
  • Edited 6:38am Sep 27, 2025 6:23am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea still more a correction to me than reversal, bear flag still the case. 2 more days to go til month end. Let see where we will be!
if above 1729 Tuesday. It will miss the structure I have. In this case 1747 would likely be taken by Wednesday. Pa would be back above 1736 again, Bullish places. The Q is still open pa went near 270 pips or 3/4 pips toward 1556, 181 at 1736. The mid point. Tuesday it with/if bears help it should be below 1556, or above 1736.9 with bulls. This second algo considers under 1729 a bearish quarter close. The problem with this quarter close now. Is its also pulled from a 6 month close. The 6 month close is not until the year ends
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #125,120
  • Sep 27, 2025 12:33pm Sep 27, 2025 12:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if above 1729 Tuesday. It will miss the structure I have. In this case 1747 would likely be taken by Wednesday. Pa would be back above 1736 again, Bullish places. The Q is still open pa went near 270 pips or 3/4 pips toward 1556, 181 at 1736. The mid point. Tuesday it with/if bears help it should be below 1556, or above 1736.9 with bulls. This second algo considers under 1729 a bearish quarter close. The problem with this quarter close now. Is its also pulled from a 6 month close. The 6 month close is not until the year ends
Yes indeed, if bull back above 1736 i will be cautious with bear. Bull did managed to pull back to 1700 level so its less bearish on the weekly close. I hope bear can do well to secure a monthly close at a lower level before the B wave starts.

govt close/fear of weaker nfp may not support the dollars though
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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