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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #581
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:02am Aug 15, 2007 6:02am
Quoting Isotonic
so the weeky is up and the daily is down and you can sell it all the way down to support (like i've been doing).

Yea, agree Iso, but a loss of 1.3250 would also invalidate the weekly, that's why I'm curious about that level =)

I'm still looking for a long setup, obviously, but I am open to any suggestions by the market of where it's headed


And since jacko has an excellent gut feeling about these things as well as an eye for the chart I thought I'd just ask his opinion about where he feels a "turning point" lies =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #582
  • Edited 6:52am Aug 15, 2007 6:11am | Edited 6:52am
At last i have manage to read thru all the pages... it sertently took time, but is was worth it...
People tend to make easy things hard to master... might be the nature of human kind. Who knows...

I think that this way to trade could be profitable for anyone who use it.

But Mr. Jacko.... i have some tought that i would find intresting to find out what you think about.
It's about the Anti Hedge strategy.

First i would like to make some quotes from Mr. Jacko
Quote
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
Quote
4. PUT AN ORDER IN AT THE EXACT SAME FIGURE AS YOUR STOP LOSS (if you were originally "short" then place a "short" order) This ensures that when the market comes back, as it invariably does, you have a DEFINATE order in place to put you back in the market where you were originally...and you are now in the same direction as the market is moving..
Quote
But I am also starting to notice that it doesn't really matter anymore where I buy or sell.
The anti-hedging strategy is FAR, FAR, FAR more important.
As one can see there is some rules to follow to use this strategy.



1. Enter on dips
2. Enter at round numbers
3. Enter at 50% fib.
4. Only enter in the major trend for the TF one choose.



But what about priotity then...?

Wich enter-setup is more imoprtant then another?



Let's say i enter at the round numer 1.3400. Set my SL at 1.3350 as trailing.



The price goes to 1.3417 (my SL is now at 1.3367) but there the price turns and retrace al the way back to my SL at 1.3367 and i lose 33 pips.



The price moves even lower by the required 50 pips. By now the price is 1.3317 and i place my buy order at 1.3367 (the price i was stoped out).

BUT...the price moves even lower... it reaches all the way back to 1.3266.... let's now play with the tought that 50% fib is around 1.3285...and ofcourse we have the round number at 1.3300.



Now we have a buy order at 1.3367 accordingly to the Anti Hedge strategy... and remeber that the AH is far far far more important...



But we also have the other enter-setup to take in considiration.
I.e. The enter of 50% fib. and the enter of round numbers.



So in this case.... what would be the best to do? Enter at 50%, the round number or just wait till it hits my buy order?

I suppose you trade this with discration. But for some FX-trader there is lack of experience that makes it difficult to use discration... or gut feeling.



Therefore it would be good to know what priority the enter-setup has in the above mentioned exemple.



Regards / JoLi
  • #583
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:26am Aug 15, 2007 6:26am
[quote=jolimoney;1538799]At last i have manage to read thru all the pages... it sertently took time, but is was worth it...
People tend to make easy things hard to master... might be the nature of human kind. Who knows...

I think that this way to trade could be profitable for anyone who use it.

But Mr. Jacko.... a have some tought that i would find intresting to find out what you think about.
It's about the Anti Hedge strategy.

First i would like to make some quotes from Mr. Jacko

Hi Jolimoney!

Thanks for asking this question again, please read my post 565. I could not understand that nobody was asking that question. Of course I trade on my own gutfeeling, but it would be interresting how Jacko, who is the real master in this strategie is handling it.

Regards Erkro
  • #584
  • Aug 15, 2007 9:50am Aug 15, 2007 9:50am
Quoting erkro

.....................

Hi Jolimoney!

Thanks for asking this question again, please read my post 565. I could not understand that nobody was asking that question. Of course I trade on my own gutfeeling, but it would be interresting how Jacko, who is the real master in this strategie is handling it.

Regards Erkro
Hi erkro,

I apologise for not answering your post 565. I was a little distracted by another matter and didn't really read it properly.

However, I will reply to jolimoneys post above, (but remember that I type VERY slowly...). I will draft a reply now


.
  • #585
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:02am Aug 15, 2007 10:02am
You could look at the 50% retrace a different way.
I suppose it's all about opinions!
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  • #586
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:35am Aug 15, 2007 10:35am
Quoting jolimoney
At last i have manage to read thru all the pages... it sertently took time, but is was worth it...
People tend to make easy things hard to master... might be the nature of human kind. Who knows...
I think that this way to trade could be profitable for anyone who use it.
But Mr. Jacko.... i have some tought that i would find intresting to find out what you think about.
It's about the Anti Hedge strategy.

First i would like to make some quotes from Mr. Jacko

As one can see there is some rules to follow to use this strategy.
1. Enter on dips
2. Enter at round numbers
3. Enter at 50% fib.
4. Only enter in the major trend for the TF one choose.

But what about priotity then...?
Wich enter-setup is more imoprtant then another?


Let's say i enter at the round numer 1.3400. Set my SL at 1.3350 as trailing.

The price goes to 1.3417 (my SL is now at 1.3367) but there the price turns and retrace al the way back to my SL at 1.3367 and i lose 33 pips.

The price moves even lower by the required 50 pips. By now the price is 1.3317 and i place my buy order at 1.3367 (the price i was stoped out).

BUT...the price moves even lower... it reaches all the way back to 1.3266.... let's now play with the tought that 50% fib is around 1.3285...and ofcourse we have the round number at 1.3300.

Now we have a buy order at 1.3367 accordingly to the Anti Hedge strategy... and remeber that the AH is far far far more important...

But we also have the other enter-setup to take in considiration.
I.e. The enter of 50% fib. and the enter of round numbers.

So in this case.... what would be the best to do? Enter at 50%, the round number or just wait till it hits my buy order?

I suppose you trade this with discration. But for some FX-trader there is lack of experience that makes it difficult to use discration... or gut feeling.

Therefore it would be good to know what priority the enter-setup has in the above mentioned exemple.
Regards / JoLi
Hi Jolimoney,

I have tightened up the spacing on your post and highlighted the numbers to try to explain your questions more clearly.

Firstly, I do not trade a "purely mechanical" program or system.
I use my discretion.
However....I believe that I use that discretion in a logical and rational way (which may appear mechanical...see example below).

Secondly, lets use your example above to demonstrate what my thinking processes are in such a situation (in this case, I am assuming that I am still believing in the "long" trend, but that the market is retracing/correcting downwards)

In your example, the market has:
1. Set off the "long" trade at 1.3400
2. Market rises to 1.3417 (dragging Trailing Stop Loss up to 1.3367)
3. Market falls to 1.3367 (triggering TSL at 1.3367) Loss of 33pips incurred
4. Market continues to fall to 1.3317 (A-H strategy kicks in. Stop Buy order placed at 1.3367)
5. Market continues to fall to 1.3266
6. We now have two extra entry points (round number of 1.3300 and the 50% Fib at 1.3285)

The question that you have asked is which are the higher priority entry points....1.3367 or 1.3300 or 1.3265

Okay....its really an issue of YOUR individual risk profile and how much you want risk safety (or confirmation that the old trend is still in force) for bigger potential profit .

In this example,
1. the safest option is to wait for the A-H trigger at 1.3367 because it is the point that has the strongest confirmation that the correction has completed and the major trend has re-asserted itself.
2. the second safest option is the round number of 1.3300 because it will have a strong (but not the strongest) confirmation that the correction has completed and the major trend has re-asserted itself.
3. the least safest option, in this example, is the 50% Fib at 1.3285

However, as can seen from the above, the potential profits of option 1 is 82 pips lower than option 3.

So again, I say, its really an issue of YOUR individual risk profile and how much you want risk safety (or confirmation that the old trend is still in force) for bigger potential profit.


.
  • #587
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:45am Aug 15, 2007 10:45am
Quoting jacko
Hi Jolimoney,

I have tightened up the spacing on your post and highlighted the numbers to try to explain your questions more clearly.

Firstly, I do not trade a "purely mechanical" program or system.
I use my discretion.
However....I believe that I use that discretion in a logical and rational way (which may appear mechanical...see example below).

Secondly, lets use your example above to demonstrate what my thinking processes are in such a situation (in this case, I am assuming that I am still believing in the "long" trend, but that the market is retracing/correcting downwards)

In your example, the market has:
1. Set off the "long" trade at 1.3400
2. Market rises to 1.3417 (dragging Trailing Stop Loss up to 1.3367)
3. Market falls to 1.3367 (triggering TSL at 1.3367) Loss of 33pips incurred
4. Market continues to fall to 1.3317 (A-H strategy kicks in. Stop Buy order placed at 1.3367)
5. Market continues to fall to 1.3266
6. We now have two extra entry points (round number of 1.3300 and the 50% Fib at 1.3285)

The question that you have asked is which are the higher priority entry points....1.3367 or 1.3300 or 1.3265

Okay....its really an issue of YOUR individual risk profile and how much you want risk safety (or confirmation that the old trend is still in force) for bigger potential profit .

In this example,
1. the safest option is to wait for the A-H trigger at 1.3367 because it is the point that has the strongest confirmation that the correction has completed and the major trend has re-asserted itself.
2. the second safest option is the round number of 1.3300 because it will have a strong (but not the strongest) confirmation that the correction has completed and the major trend has re-asserted itself.
3. the least safest option, in this example, is the 50% Fib at 1.3285

However, as can seen from the above, the potential profits of option 1 is 82 pips lower than option 3.

So again, I say, its really an issue of YOUR individual risk profile and how much you want risk safety (or confirmation that the old trend is still in force) for bigger potential profit.


.
Mr.Jacko....

That was just the kind of answer i wanted.

I now clearly understand how to use the AH-strategy in a case like the above mentioned.

Once again

THANK YOU!

/ JoLi
  • #588
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:53am Aug 15, 2007 10:53am
Quoting jolimoney

....................
Now we have a buy order at 1.3367 accordingly to the Anti Hedge strategy... and remeber that the AH is far far far more important...

But we also have the other enter-setup to take in considiration.
I.e. The enter of 50% fib. and the enter of round numbers.
So in this case.... what would be the best to do? Enter at 50%, the round number or just wait till it hits my buy order?
I suppose you trade this with discration. But for some FX-trader there is lack of experience that makes it difficult to use discration... or gut feeling.

Therefore it would be good to know what priority the enter-setup has in the above mentioned exemple.
Regards / JoLi
Hi Jolimoney,

There was another point that I felt that you have mis-interpreted me...where you seemed to infer that there may be cases where a round number or Fib number would be a higher priority than the A-H number.

I think that you have missed the point: the A-H strategy is:
1. A DISCIPLINED ACTION PLAN
2. to ENSURE THAT AS A TRADER, YOU GET BACK INTO THE MARKET (very important if you have been stopped out of your last trade)
3. PLUS IT ENSURES THAT YOU GET BACK IN AT THE POINT OF WHERE YOU WERE STOPPED OUT (therefore recouping all and any losses)
4. PLUS IT PUT YOU BACK IN THE MARKET IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAJOR TREND.

For me, as a trader, it is ALWAYS in place. However, that does not preclude me from taking trades at other levels if I want to increase my risk profile (that is, if I am feeling greedy !!!!)


.
  • #589
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:14am Aug 15, 2007 11:14am
Quoting jacko
Hi erkro,

I apologise for not answering your post 565. I was a little distracted by another matter and didn't really read it properly.

However, I will reply to jolimoneys post above, (but remember that I type VERY slowly...). I will draft a reply now


.
Hi Jacko!

Thanks a lot for your answer. I thinked that you use it in this way, but I wanted to go sure.

I think I beat you in typing VERY SLOWLY, but if we type slowly and trade fast (many Pips) I think that's no problem.

Thanks again.

erkro
  • #590
  • Aug 15, 2007 12:04pm Aug 15, 2007 12:04pm
One final point, then I will stop posting and taking up valuable ForexFactory broadbandwidth.

When I want to go "long" but the market is in a (hopefully temporary) decline/retracement, I try not to catch a "falling knives". I prefer to let the market show me that it HAS turned.

Having said that, the market is very delicately balanced on the 300 bar daily trend line with touches at 1.2483 (Oct 13 2006), 1.3262 (June 13 2007) and 1.3455 (Aug 15 2007).

The market is currently at 1.3464 after bottoming (?????) at 1.3456. The market touched 1.3503 some two hours ago. If it hits 1.3500 again, I am a buyer.


A BIG CALL !!!!!!!!!

I believe that a stop Buy 1.3500 is a good buy. Certainly worth a trade.

However, I could be wwwwwrong !!!!

PS I am betting using some of my 500 pip winnings (from 1.3300 to 1.3800). So far, I have given 50 pips back (1.3650 to 1.3600). I am prepared to now risk another 50 pips that 1.3500 on the second touch is a good buy.
If it doesn’t touch 1.3500, then I can cancel the trade.

Alternatively, if it stays where it is or goes lower and doesn’t hit 1.3500 within the next couple of hours, then I may even consider changing to a seller

.
  • #591
  • Aug 15, 2007 12:29pm Aug 15, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Jolimoney,

There was another point that I felt that you have mis-interpreted me...where you seemed to infer that there may be cases where a round number or Fib number would be a higher priority than the A-H number.

I think that you have missed the point: the A-H strategy is:
1. A DISCIPLINED ACTION PLAN
2. to ENSURE THAT AS A TRADER, YOU GET BACK INTO THE MARKET (very important if you have been stopped out of your last trade)
3. PLUS IT ENSURES THAT YOU GET BACK IN AT THE POINT OF WHERE YOU WERE STOPPED OUT (therefore recouping all and any losses)
4. PLUS IT PUT YOU BACK IN THE MARKET IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAJOR TREND.

For me, as a trader, it is ALWAYS in place. However, that does not preclude me from taking trades at other levels if I want to increase my risk profile (that is, if I am feeling greedy !!!!)


.
Hi Jacko,

Thanks for helping us learn your system.

I was hoping you could help me clarify one area that I am a bit confused

about concerning the 50% retracement level that you use.

When you look at a Daily chart do you look at several lows and figure the

50% retacement to the current high and then try to see if any of them

match a round number and a resistance area?

Or are you focusing on the more obvious 50% retrace that would be 1.3262

to 1.3851?



Thanks again,
Camptrader
Camptrader
  • #592
  • Edited Aug 16, 2007 8:57am Aug 15, 2007 12:49pm | Edited Aug 16, 2007 8:57am
Hi and Thank you!

I really love your approach to life and trading. When I read Desiderata I wanted to show it to my Mom and she smiled and said that she used to have it on her wall.

I've been looking at trading companies (brokers) recently. Could you share with us which ones you currently use, even if you they don't get your highest endorsement? From one of your posts it sounded like you use a few different ones. Thank you very much!

Have a great day,

JES
All Is One
  • #593
  • Aug 15, 2007 12:57pm Aug 15, 2007 12:57pm
Jacko

your last few replies just made the lightbulb come on. Now I get it. Many thanks to fellow pippers who asked the q's that brought it all together.

I think I will stick with non aggressive approach till confidence builds.


nick
  • #594
  • Aug 15, 2007 2:15pm Aug 15, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting jacko

.....
Alternatively, if it stays where it is or goes lower and doesn’t hit 1.3500 within the next couple of hours, then I may even consider changing to a seller

.
:surprised This is a big piece of news! :surprised

Is it a joke... Jacko?

From my point of view we are still on a "north" trend, very easy to see on a 4 hour chart. My young five year old daughter, Serena, told me...

But if you feel now like a seller I'm going to delete my buy order at 1,3550.

Anyway, you are doing a great job here Jacko. Thanks again!

Obi Wan.
  • #595
  • Edited 9:28pm Aug 15, 2007 3:03pm | Edited 9:28pm
Quoting jacko
One final point, then I will stop posting and taking up valuable ForexFactory broadbandwidth.

.
WHAT?!! Jacko, your posts add value to FF bandwidth. Most posts at FF are just noise, so your posts definitely help increase the signal to noise ratio in a very positive direction!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #596
  • Edited Aug 16, 2007 1:22am Aug 15, 2007 3:06pm | Edited Aug 16, 2007 1:22am

Quoting SeekingLight
Hi jacko,

I would just like to ask whether you would start looking to revise your opinion at a close below 1.3250 or what your personal "point of downturn" is.
Just curious how you view your charts and whether your fundamental analysis trumps the chart or the other way around (the deficit is still there and so on).

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Well put SL!

I too would like to hear Jacko's answer to this, especially the part I've bolded in red.

(Thanks Jacko!)

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #597
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:49pm Aug 15, 2007 5:49pm
Correct me if I'm wrong but earlier in the thread he has said that he looks at the fundamentals but he always comes back to what the chart is telling him. So the chart (price) is primary.
  • #598
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:03pm Aug 15, 2007 6:03pm
On my charts, price is at daily trendline from Jan. 07. Maybe, just maybe
  • #599
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:08pm Aug 15, 2007 6:08pm
i think e/u has changed a trend, it has peaked at 1.3851, target of this big retracement is 1.27xx-1.28xx.
  • #600
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:43pm Aug 15, 2007 6:43pm
I have been following these posts for quite some time now, and I am curious how you all are doing in this kind of market?

It seems to me that the conditions right now would be rough for the strategy.

I have been lucky, been working too much to lose anything that matters.

Clockwork71
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