EURUSD only

On your tv show, do you talk about me?

My crystal ball is broken???

Common Bull just 4 pips, how hard can it be?!

If the price falls, I'm observing the possibility of the price reaching the 200 Average and oscillating "until tomorrow" between it and the 20 Average, Chart M15.

And it is blastoff!!!!!

Of course I do
Tacos are the fundamental core of trading
Without truly mastering the art of tacos no one can succeed
In trade

I went short again at 1.1797, if any M1 candle closes above 1.1800 I'm out.

50 pips will do just fine, was able to have some decent exits for a change today within 5 pips of the days high (as of now at least) Flat for the day, will attempt to do it again tomorrow.

Sur le Monthly (long terme)
La structure reste baissière. On voit des sommets descendants et les prix évoluent toujours sous la zone de résistance majeure. La dynamique générale reste orientée vers le bas, donc le biais principal est toujours vendeur tant que le marché ne casse pas les zones clés à la hausse.
Sur le Weekly (moyen terme)
On observe une correction haussière dans ce contexte baissier. Le prix a rebondi depuis une zone de support et pousse vers le haut, porté par la demande acheteuse. C’est une phase de retracement (pullback) au sein de la tendance globale.
Résumé du setup :

1. Monthly → Bearish (tendance baissière de fond, pression vendeuse dominante).
2. Weekly → Correction haussière (pullback dans la tendance, potentielle continuation baissière à surveiller).
3. Les acheteurs dominent à court/moyen terme, mais la vraie décision se fera sur les zones de résistance weekly/monthly.

Stratégie possible : attendre la fin de la correction weekly pour reprendre le sens de la tendance mensuelle (short sur zone de résistance).

EUR/USD Strategic Analysis & Signal: Navigating the Fed-ECB Policy Chasm (Week of September 22, 2025)


Executive Summary

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently defined by a powerful and expanding monetary policy divergence between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. This fundamental chasm has established a clear bullish trajectory for the pair, overshadowing concerns about a marked slowdown in Eurozone economic growth. The Federal Reserve's recent initiation of an easing cycle, framed as a "risk management" cut but underscored by weakening labor market data, stands in stark contrast to the ECB's resolute decision to pause its own cutting cycle. This dynamic has become the market's primary narrative, providing a structural tailwind for the Euro.
The technical landscape offers firm confirmation of this fundamental bias. Price action is contained within a well-defined bullish structure, and the pair is presently testing a critical confluence of technical support. This posture suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with pullbacks likely to be viewed as buying opportunities by institutional participants.
The week commencing September 22, 2025, is poised to be a pivotal period for the currency pair. The economic calendar is dense with high-impact events, including a series of speeches from key central bank officials from both the Fed and ECB. The week's activity will culminate in the release of the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This data release represents the most significant near-term catalyst and carries the potential to either reaffirm the current trend or trigger a sharp reversal.
The primary strategic approach is to identify and execute long positions on corrective pullbacks into established support zones. A comprehensive trading plan, however, must account for alternative outcomes. A contingency plan for a bearish reversal is therefore outlined, predicated on a failure of critical technical levels and a hawkish surprise from U.S. inflation data. The prevailing market conditions necessitate a nimble and disciplined approach, with a rigorous focus on risk management.

Section 1: The Great Monetary Policy Divergence: Fed Easing vs. ECB Pause

The dominant force propelling the EUR/USD exchange rate is the widening gulf in monetary policy between the two most influential central banks in the world. An analysis of their recent decisions, rhetoric, and forward guidance reveals a clear and fundamentally significant divergence. The Federal Reserve has officially pivoted to an easing stance, while the European Central Bank has signaled a firm pause, creating a structural advantage for the Euro that is likely to persist in the medium term.

1.1 The Federal Reserve's Dovish Pivot: A "Risk Management" Cut

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its September 17 meeting by delivering its first interest rate reduction of 2025, a move that was widely anticipated and fully priced in by financial markets.1 The committee lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a new range of 4.00% to 4.25%.1
While the cut itself was expected, the accompanying rhetoric from Fed Chair Jerome Powell was carefully calibrated to manage market expectations. Powell characterized the move not as the beginning of a predetermined, aggressive easing cycle, but rather as a "risk management" adjustment.5 This language is intended to preserve policy flexibility and prevent the market from pricing in an overly dovish path. However, the underlying economic data, particularly the clear deterioration in the U.S. labor market, suggests that this is likely the first step in a more sustained series of cuts.
This interpretation is strongly supported by the Fed's own forward guidance. The updated Summary of Economic Projections, including the "dot plot," explicitly signals a path toward further accommodation. The median projection from FOMC participants now pencils in two additional rate cuts before the end of 2025, with at least one more to follow in 2026.1 This explicit guidance provides a clear roadmap for the market, solidifying the dovish narrative and weighing on the U.S. Dollar.
Further underscoring the committee's dovish tilt is the presence of internal dissent. The decision to cut by 25 basis points was not unanimous. Governor Stephen Miran, a recent appointee, voted for a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction.1 This dissent is significant because it reveals a dovish skew within the FOMC, suggesting that the internal debate is centered on the
pace of easing, not on whether to ease at all. The path of least resistance within the committee is clearly toward more, not less, monetary accommodation.

1.2 The European Central Bank's Steady Hand: A Decisive Pause

In a stark and deliberate contrast, the European Central Bank has adopted a posture of stability. The Governing Council has held its three key interest rates unchanged, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.00%.2 Senior policymakers have been clear in their communications that the rate-cutting cycle, which saw 200 basis points of easing between June 2024 and June 2025, has likely concluded for the time being.5
The ECB's official statements consistently emphasize a "data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach," and they have explicitly stated they are "not pre-committing to a particular rate path".14 This methodology stands in contrast to the Fed's more prescriptive forward guidance via the dot plot. The ECB's stance is one of cautious observation, waiting for a significant change in the economic data before contemplating another policy move. The ECB Watch tool, which gauges market expectations, reflects this reality, showing a 97.3% probability that rates will remain on hold at the upcoming October 28 meeting.15
This cautious stance is rooted in persistent concerns about inflation. Prominent ECB officials, including Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and Slovak central bank governor Peter Kazimir, have remained vocal about the upside risks to inflation. They cite potential pressures from the services sector, the impact of international tariffs, food prices, and expansive fiscal policies as reasons to "keep a steady hand".5 ECB President Christine Lagarde has gone so far as to state that the "disinflationary process is over," a powerful signal that the bar for any further rate cuts is now exceptionally high.12

1.3 Impact on Interest Rate Differentials and Forward Outlook

The direct and unavoidable consequence of this policy divergence is the compression of the interest rate differential between the United States and the Eurozone. As the Federal Reserve lowers its policy rate while the ECB holds steady, the yield advantage that has long favored holding U.S. Dollar-denominated assets over their Euro-denominated counterparts systematically erodes. This narrowing differential makes the Euro relatively more attractive on a yield basis, encouraging capital flows out of the Dollar and into the Euro.15
Financial markets have already internalized this new reality. Current pricing suggests that the market has discounted approximately 75 basis points of total Fed easing through the remainder of 2025, which now serves as the baseline expectation.4 This implies that for the U.S. Dollar to experience a fresh wave of weakness, the Fed will either need to signal an even more aggressive easing path than is currently anticipated, or the incoming U.S. economic data must deteriorate at a faster-than-expected pace.
The Federal Reserve's current policy predicament stems from the conflicting nature of its dual mandate, which requires it to pursue both maximum employment and price stability, defined as a long-term inflation rate of 2%.1 At present, these two objectives are in direct opposition. The U.S. labor market is showing unambiguous signs of weakening, with slowing job gains and a rising unemployment rate.18 Simultaneously, inflation remains "somewhat elevated" above the 2% target, a situation exacerbated by ongoing trade tariffs.1 Fed Chair Powell himself has acknowledged the difficulty of this environment, describing it as an "unusual" situation where the central bank's tools "can't do two things at once".4 The decision to cut rates in the face of above-target inflation is a clear signal that the Fed is currently prioritizing the employment side of its mandate. The committee appears more concerned about the risk of a sharp economic downturn than the risk of persistent inflation.4 This creates an asymmetric risk profile for the U.S. Dollar. The market is positioned for a continued dovish stance driven by weak data. A significant upside surprise in economic data, such as a hot inflation report, could force the Fed to walk back its dovish rhetoric, potentially triggering a sharp and violent U.S. Dollar rally. Conversely, further weak data will merely confirm the Fed's current path, likely leading to a more gradual and orderly decline in the Dollar. The higher-volatility event risk is therefore skewed toward a hawkish surprise.
In this global context, the ECB's decision to pause is not merely a neutral act; it is functionally hawkish. Central bank policy is always relative. By holding its policy rate steady while its primary global counterpart is actively easing, the ECB's stance becomes relatively more restrictive. The bank has successfully anchored medium-term inflation expectations around its 2% target, with staff projections for 2026 and 2027 sitting comfortably at 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively.12 Having achieved its primary objective, the ECB has little incentive to cut rates further unless a major, unforeseen shock to the Eurozone economy materializes. This policy stability, contrasted with the Fed's reactive easing, provides a firm fundamental anchor for the Euro. The single currency is no longer appreciating solely on the back of positive domestic developments, but rather due to its stability and the ECB's perceived policy credibility relative to a Fed that is now firmly in an easing mode.

Section 2: Macroeconomic Cross-Currents: A Tale of Two Economies

A comparative analysis of the U.S. and Eurozone economies reveals a complex and divergent landscape. The U.S. is exhibiting signs of stagflation—a challenging combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation—which is compelling the Federal Reserve to act. The Eurozone, while experiencing a sharp growth slowdown, is supported by a remarkably resilient labor market, affording the European Central Bank the luxury of patience. The market's current price action indicates a clear prioritization of this monetary policy reaction function over the headline growth figures themselves.

2.1 United States Economic Health Check: Stagflationary Signals

The primary justification for the Federal Reserve's dovish pivot is the clear and accelerating deterioration of the U.S. labor market. The August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report was a significant disappointment, showing an addition of only 22,000 jobs, far below the consensus estimate of 75,000.18 Compounding this weakness, the figures for previous months were revised downward, with the June data now showing the first net monthly job loss since December 2020.18 The headline unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021.18 This cooling trend is the central pillar of the Fed's rationale for easing monetary policy.4
Despite this slowdown in employment, inflationary pressures remain stubbornly persistent. The year-over-year headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August registered 2.9%, while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was even higher at 3.1%.20 Both figures are significantly above the Fed's 2% target. This persistent inflation is being exacerbated by the economic impact of trade tariffs, which are being passed through to consumer prices.6 Real-time inflation nowcasting models from the Cleveland Fed suggest that September's CPI will remain elevated at around 3.0%.25
The outlook for U.S. GDP is mixed, highlighting a degree of uncertainty. On one hand, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a running estimate of real-time growth, is forecasting a robust annualized growth rate of 3.3% for the third quarter.26 This is a strong figure and has been revised up from earlier, more pessimistic estimates. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters presents a more subdued outlook, with a median forecast of just 1.3% for Q3 growth.28 This wide divergence between a real-time model and a survey of economists underscores the current uncertainty surrounding the U.S. growth trajectory.

2.2 Eurozone Economic Resilience and Risks

The Eurozone economy has experienced a dramatic slowdown in economic activity. According to the third estimate from Eurostat, quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 was a mere 0.1%, a steep deceleration from the 0.6% expansion recorded in the first quarter.29 This weakness was broad-based, driven by contractions in the bloc's largest economies, Germany (-0.3%) and Italy (-0.1%).29 The slowdown is largely attributed to lingering uncertainty over global trade measures, which has prompted greater caution among both businesses and households.29
However, in stark contrast to this weak growth picture, the Eurozone labor market remains a significant source of strength and stability. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to a record low of 6.2% in July 2025, highlighting a tight and robust jobs market.31 Employment continued to expand in the second quarter, albeit at a more moderate pace of 0.1%.30 This underlying resilience in the labor market provides the ECB with a crucial justification for holding interest rates steady, as there is no immediate crisis on the employment front that would necessitate urgent policy action.

Table 2.1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators Comparison (US vs. Eurozone)

IndicatorUnited StatesEurozoneSource Snippets
GDP Growth (QoQ, Q2 2025)+0.8% (annualized +3.3%)+0.1%30
GDP Growth (YoY, Q2 2025)+2.1%+1.5%30
Headline Inflation (YoY, Aug 2025)2.9% (CPI)2.0% (Aug) / 2.1% (ECB Proj. 2025)5
Core Inflation (YoY, Aug 2025)3.1% (Core CPI)2.4% (ECB Proj. 2025)12
Unemployment Rate (Latest)4.3% (Aug 2025)6.2% (Jul 2025 - Record Low)18
Employment Change (Latest)+22k (Aug NFP - Weak)+0.1% QoQ (Q2 - Slowing but Positive)19
A surface-level reading of the macroeconomic data presents a paradox. The U.S. economy, based on recent GDP estimates, is growing significantly faster than the Eurozone.26 A purely growth-based valuation model would logically favor the U.S. Dollar. Yet, the EUR/USD is in a strong and sustained uptrend. This apparent contradiction is resolved by understanding that the market is not trading the current economic reality, but rather the
policy reaction to that reality. The market is a forward-looking mechanism. The weak GDP figures from the Eurozone are not a surprise; they are a known negative and have been largely priced into the currency. More importantly, this weakness is not yet severe enough to force the ECB to abandon its pause, especially given the strength of the labor market. In contrast, the deterioration in the U.S. labor market is a newer and more powerful catalyst that is actively forcing a change in Federal Reserve policy. The market is not trading the fact that U.S. growth is currently higher; it is trading the fact that the weakening U.S. labor market is compelling the Fed to embark on an easing cycle, which is expected to lead to weaker U.S. growth and a structurally weaker U.S. Dollar in the future.
The resilience of the Eurozone labor market is the key factor that grants the ECB its policy flexibility. In a typical economic slowdown, a negative feedback loop can take hold: slowing growth leads to job losses, which in turn leads to lower consumer spending, resulting in even slower growth. The Eurozone is currently experiencing the first part of this sequence—slowing growth—but has so far avoided the second part—significant job losses. The unemployment rate remains at a record low.31 This breaks the negative feedback loop and provides the ECB with immense latitude. The Governing Council is not under immediate pressure to act pre-emptively to support the labor market. This structural strength allows the ECB to remain singularly focused on its inflation mandate, justifying its "steady hand" approach. As long as unemployment remains contained, the ECB can afford to maintain a relatively higher policy rate than the Fed, providing a durable and fundamental source of support for the Euro.

Section 3: Technical Landscape: Mapping the Bullish Trajectory

A thorough analysis of the EUR/USD price chart provides strong technical confirmation for the fundamentally driven bullish thesis. The multi-timeframe trend is clearly positive, key momentum indicators signal underlying strength, and the pair is currently testing a well-defined support zone that offers a potential low-risk entry point for trend-following strategies. Acknowledging alternative scenarios is a critical component of risk management, and a contrarian technical outlook provides a clear framework for identifying a potential trend reversal.

3.1 Multi-Timeframe Trend Analysis (Daily & Weekly)

The prevailing price structure on both the daily and weekly timeframes is unambiguously bullish. Since bottoming in early March 2025, the pair has carved out a solid uptrend, characterized by a consistent and orderly pattern of higher highs and higher lows.15 The price is currently trading within a well-defined rising trend channel, indicating increasing optimism among investors.37 Furthermore, the price remains comfortably above key long-term moving averages, such as the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, which are now acting as dynamic support on any pullbacks.2
Recent price action has been driven by the FOMC meeting. The pair rallied strongly into the event, reaching a peak near the 1.1920 level before correcting lower in the aftermath of Chair Powell's cautious commentary.38 This pullback has brought the price down to a critical support zone to begin the week of September 22, presenting a classic "buy-the-dip" opportunity for traders looking to align with the dominant trend.7

3.2 Critical Support and Resistance Zones

Identifying key price levels is essential for defining risk and reward parameters. The current chart structure presents several critical zones that will likely govern price action in the week ahead.

1. Key Support Cluster (1.1725 - 1.1750): This is the most important near-term zone on the chart and represents a powerful confluence of technical factors. A successful defense of this area is paramount for the bullish thesis to remain intact. This cluster is composed of:
   1. A significant prior resistance level from a prolonged consolidation period, which is now expected to act as support.7
   2. An ascending trendline drawn from the recent series of higher lows.7
   3. A key Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1748.7
   4. The 50-day simple moving average, which is also situated in this vicinity, adding another layer of dynamic support.39

2. Secondary Support (1.1650 - 1.1660): A decisive break below the primary support cluster would bring this secondary level into focus. This zone represents a lower-level support, and a failure to hold here would signal a more significant bearish correction, seriously challenging the integrity of the overall uptrend.8
3. Immediate Resistance (1.1830 - 1.1850): This area marks the year-to-date highs and the peak from the week preceding the FOMC decision.2 A clean and sustained break above this level is the required confirmation that the next leg of the rally has begun.
4. Primary Upside Target (1.1915 - 1.1920): This level represents the high of the volatile spike that occurred immediately following the FOMC announcement. It is a key local top and will likely act as a significant psychological and technical barrier.8
5. Major Psychological Target (1.2000): This is the key round-number psychological level and a major long-term resistance area. It is the primary target for many bullish analysts and represents a logical objective for a sustained bullish move.9

3.3 Oscillator and Momentum Indicator Analysis

Momentum indicators provide insight into the health and velocity of the prevailing trend.

1. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The 14-period RSI on the daily chart remains in positive territory, with readings consistently above the 50 centerline. This indicates that bullish impulses have dominated recent price action and that upside momentum is intact.15
2. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram continues to print above the zero line, and the MACD line is above its signal line. This confirms the overall bullish bias and reflects the underlying strength of the trend.8
3. Stochastic Oscillator: On some timeframes, the Stochastic oscillator is noted to be in or near the overbought zone.8 This does not necessarily signal an imminent reversal, but it does suggest that the recent rally may be extended in the short term. This reading aligns perfectly with the current price action, which is undergoing a corrective pullback to test support, potentially to alleviate these overbought conditions before the next move higher.

3.4 A Contrarian Perspective: Elliott Wave Analysis

For the purposes of comprehensive risk management, it is crucial to consider alternative scenarios that challenge the primary thesis. One source presents a bearish Elliott Wave count that offers a roadmap for a potential trend reversal.39 This analysis interprets the recent rally to the 1.1916 area not as an impulsive move, but as the completion of a corrective "double top" formation.
Under this bearish scenario, the market is at the beginning of a five-wave decline. The first major target of this projected downward sequence is the 1.1290 level. A key confirmation for this bearish count would be a decisive break below the secondary support level at 1.1650. While this is not the primary forecast, it serves as an invaluable risk management tool. It provides a clear invalidation point for the bullish thesis and outlines a potential path for a bearish reversal, allowing traders to define their risk parameters and prepare for an alternative outcome.
The current price location around 1.1740 is not arbitrary; it is a technically significant juncture where multiple, independent technical indicators align. This phenomenon, known as confluence, creates a high-probability trade location. The research identifies at least four distinct technical elements converging in the 1.1725-1.1750 area: prior resistance that has flipped to support, a multi-week ascending trendline, a key Fibonacci level, and a major moving average.7 When price pulls back to such a robust confluence zone following a clear impulsive move higher, it represents a classic trend-following entry setup. The probability of this level holding as support is significantly higher than that of a random level on the chart. For both swing and daily traders, this area provides a well-defined zone to consider initiating long positions with a logical and relatively tight stop-loss placement just below the cluster, offering a favorable risk/reward profile.
The market's behavior around the FOMC announcement provides a clear insight into institutional positioning. The initial reaction to the widely expected 25-basis-point cut was a sharp spike higher to 1.1920, a move likely driven by short-covering and high-frequency trading algorithms reacting to the headline.38 However, Chair Powell's cautious "risk management" rhetoric failed to provide the necessary fuel for a sustained breakout, as the market had been hoping for a more aggressively dovish signal.38 The subsequent sharp reversal from the 1.1920 high back down towards the 1.17s demonstrates that larger players, or "financial institutions," used the liquidity and volatility of the event to take profits on long positions that had been established in anticipation of the news.38 This price action provides a clear "tell." It shows that while the underlying trend remains bullish, the market is not willing to chase prices at new highs without a fresh catalyst. This reinforces the strategic validity of a "buy-the-dip" approach, as it suggests institutions are more likely to reload their long positions on pullbacks to established support rather than buying breakouts at elevated levels. The 1.1920 level is now firmly established as a zone of significant supply.

Section 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning

Gauging the prevailing market mood and the positioning of key participants provides a crucial layer of analysis. It serves as a check on the primary thesis, helping to determine whether the current trend is widely accepted and supported by significant capital flows, or if it is running into skepticism and vulnerable to a reversal. An examination of speculative positioning and institutional forecasts suggests that the current bullish trend in EUR/USD is healthy and has further room to run.

4.1 Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Analysis

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provides a detailed breakdown of positioning in the futures market. This data is a valuable indicator of market sentiment, particularly the positioning of large, sophisticated traders. The data is released each Friday and reflects positions held as of the close of business on the preceding Tuesday.40
The latest COT report reveals that non-commercial traders—a category that includes large speculators such as hedge funds and asset managers—hold a significant net-long position in Euro futures.41 The most recent data, for the week ending September 12, 2025, shows speculative net-long positions at 125,700 contracts, a notable increase from the 119,600 net-long contracts reported in the prior week.41
A growing net-long position among this cohort of traders is a confirming signal for the bullish trend. It indicates that "smart money" is positioned for further upside in the Euro and is actively deploying capital to support this view.43 This alignment between price action and speculative positioning suggests that the current uptrend is well-supported and not merely a short-term anomaly.

4.2 Analyst Consensus and Institutional Forecasts

A survey of institutional analyst forecasts cited in the research reveals a strong consensus that favors continued EUR/USD strength, though dissenting views exist, providing a balanced perspective.
The prevailing sentiment among major financial institutions is bullish:

1. ING: In the near term, analysts at ING are calling for the EUR/USD to climb back to the 1.1850 handle in the coming days.16
2. Danske Bank: Taking a longer-term view, Danske Bank sees the pair on a continued upward trajectory, targeting the 1.23 level on a 12-month horizon.16
3. RBC Capital Markets: Analysts at RBC have an even more bullish long-term forecast, projecting a climb to 1.24 by the end of 2026, predicated on a structural decline in the U.S. Dollar.16
4. Forex.com Analysts: Multiple analysts from this source expect the pair to continue its ascent toward the major psychological level of 1.20 in the coming days and weeks.9
5. Trading Economics: The global macro model from Trading Economics projects that the EUR/USD will trade at 1.17 by the end of the current quarter, suggesting consolidation around current levels.44

It is essential for a balanced analysis to acknowledge bearish outliers. Credit Agricole holds a more pessimistic view on the pair, forecasting a retreat to 1.10 by the end of next year.16 This forecast likely places a heavier weight on the Eurozone's weak underlying growth fundamentals and may be discounting the powerful influence of the current monetary policy divergence.
The sentiment and positioning data, when viewed in aggregate, suggest that the current uptrend is in a healthy state. The COT report is often most useful as a contrarian indicator when positioning reaches historical extremes. An excessively large net-long position can signal that a trade has become "crowded," leaving few marginal buyers and making the trend vulnerable to a sharp reversal. The current net-long position of 125,700 contracts, while clearly bullish, is not at a level that would be considered a historical extreme.41 This indicates that while speculators are confident in the uptrend, the market is not yet exhibiting signs of euphoria or irrational exuberance. This aligns with the analyst consensus, which is broadly bullish but not universally so, as evidenced by the dissenting view from Credit Agricole. This degree of skepticism is often a characteristic of a healthy, sustainable trend. The current sentiment landscape suggests that the uptrend has further room to run before it becomes exhausted, supporting the strategic approach of staying with the prevailing trend.

Section 5: Synthesis, Strategy, and Potential Signal

The culmination of the fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis points toward a coherent and actionable trading strategy for the week of September 22, 2025. The weight of the evidence supports a continuation of the bullish trend in EUR/USD, driven primarily by the profound monetary policy divergence. However, the week ahead is fraught with significant event risk that demands a disciplined approach to risk management, including a clear plan for an alternative, bearish scenario.

5.1 The Week Ahead: High-Impact Event Risk

The economic calendar for the upcoming week is heavily populated with events that have the potential to inject significant volatility into the market.

1. Central Banker Speeches: The week will be punctuated by numerous speeches from officials at both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.5 Markets will be highly sensitive to any deviation from the established policy narratives. Key speakers to watch include Fed Chair Powell, Governor Williams, and the dissenting Governor Miran, as well as ECB President Lagarde and influential board members Schnabel and Nagel.
2. Eurozone PMIs (Tuesday): Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data for Germany and the broader Eurozone will provide a timely, forward-looking read on the health of the bloc's economy. While the labor market has been a source of strength, these survey-based indicators will be scrutinized for any signs of further economic deterioration or, conversely, stabilization. Better-than-expected readings could provide a temporary, independent boost to the Euro.9
3. U.S. Core PCE (Friday): This is the marquee event of the week and the most significant known risk factor. As the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has the highest potential to shift market expectations regarding the future path of U.S. interest rates. A reading at or below consensus would reinforce the current dovish narrative and likely propel EUR/USD higher. However, a significant upside surprise could reignite fears of persistent inflation, challenge the rationale for the Fed's easing cycle, and trigger a sharp and aggressive rally in the U.S. Dollar.7

Table 5.1: High-Impact Economic Calendar (Week of Sept 22, 2025)

Date & Time (ET)CurrencyEventImportanceConsensusPotential Market ImpactSource Snippets
Tuesday, Sept 23EURHCOB Flash PMIs (Ger. & EZ)HighN/ABetter than expected supports EUR; worse pressures EUR.5
Tuesday, Sept 23USDS&P Global Flash PMIsMediumN/AFocus on employment and prices paid components.46
Tuesday, Sept 23USDFed Chair Powell SpeechHighN/AAny deviation from "risk management" rhetoric will move markets.46
Friday, Sept 26USDCore PCE Price Index (MoM)Very HighN/AHigher than forecast = Bullish USD. Lower than forecast = Bearish USD.7

5.2 Primary Trading Scenario (Bullish Continuation)

The integrated analysis suggests that the primary trend is upward, but the market is showing a preference for buying on weakness rather than chasing breakouts. Therefore, the optimal strategy is to wait for price to pull back to established support levels before initiating long positions.

1. Strategy: Buy on corrective pullbacks ("buy the dip").
2. Entry Signal: The proposed entry signal is a clear bullish price action confirmation (such as a bullish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear reversal pattern on the 4-hour or daily chart) following a successful test of the key support cluster located between 1.1725 and 1.1750.
3. Stop-Loss: A daily close below 1.1690. This placement positions the stop just below the critical support cluster and recent swing lows, providing the trade with a reasonable buffer while ensuring a clear invalidation of the setup if the key support zone definitively fails.
4. Price Targets:
   1. T1: 1.1830 (Near-term resistance and the year-to-date high). At this level, it would be prudent to move the stop-loss to breakeven.
   2. T2: 1.1915 (The post-FOMC spike high, a key area of supply).
   3. T3: 1.1995 (Just below the major psychological 1.2000 level, a logical area to take final profits).

5.3 Alternative Scenario (Bearish Reversal)

A comprehensive strategy must account for the possibility that the primary thesis is wrong. This alternative scenario would likely be triggered by a fundamental shock, such as a much hotter-than-expected U.S. Core PCE report, leading to a technical breakdown of the bullish structure.

1. Strategy: This is a counter-trend reversal strategy, requiring a higher degree of confirmation.
2. Entry Signal: A confirmed daily close below the 1.1690 level. A break of this magnitude would signify a failure of the entire key support cluster and would likely trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders from existing long positions, adding to the bearish momentum.
3. Stop-Loss: A daily close back above 1.1760. This places the stop above the broken support zone, which would now be expected to act as formidable resistance.
4. Price Targets:
   1. T1: 1.1600 (The next significant horizontal support level).
   2. T2: 1.1500 (A major psychological level and a prior support zone).
   3. T3: 1.1290 (The first major target derived from the contrarian Elliott Wave analysis, which would represent a full-blown trend reversal).

5.4 Concluding Remarks and Risk Management

The weight of the available evidence, driven by a profound and widening monetary policy divergence, points toward a continued appreciation of the EUR/USD exchange rate. The technical picture is in firm alignment with this fundamental view, offering a clear, high-probability entry zone for well-defined long positions.
For swing traders, the primary risk to this outlook is a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve expectations, most likely catalyzed by Friday's PCE data. It is imperative to adhere to the defined stop-loss levels. Traders may also consider scaling into positions in tranches rather than entering with a full position size at a single price point to mitigate entry timing risk.
For daily traders, the focus should be on managing risk around the high-impact data releases. Holding large, leveraged positions into events like central banker speeches or the PCE release is inadvisable. The prudent approach is to trade the market's reaction to the news, not the anticipation of it, using the defined technical levels as key intraday pivot points. The primary bullish thesis remains valid and actionable as long as the critical 1.1700 handle holds as support.

Quick H1 Trade Plan for Tuesday

1. Keep buying dips as long as 1.1750/78 area acts supportive...

Hopefully, I continue after London opening...

Peace

I'll try to see if I can break out of the recent sell-offs around 1.1765... If I get there, I'll buy.


Happy trading, everyone!

EURUSD price movement is near the upper band, RSI is almost overbought, yesterday's price increase was quite significant with a long-bodied bull candle, a break of the high allows for the continuation of the trend, but a pullback is also possible.

Taking the opportunity to share a bit of my draft for this buy entry...
We can see that something is brewing right now at the resistance. The "Axis" in my chart, from what I see, is where I intend to make a buy.
A strong rally could occur until it breaks through the three resistances, starting a new cycle at the brown LT line...
Note: this Blue Vertical Line, for possible range, is the same size as the upper candlestick...


...

seems like we are attempting to break through the first resistance now. It is bullish to me

I was observing: The bulls broke through resistance; the blue line near the price is just the wick of the H1 candle I mentioned earlier. The price could reach today's opening level and continue rising, or continue moving from where it is... Perhaps the buy for the pivot has already occurred in the 1.1765 region... This also doesn't rule out a breakout of support, the light blue line...
However, the bias is more towards climbing.

Price just closed last week's Gap
Maybe he'll be back for today's opening...
1.17979

Based on H1, 1.1796 is my nearest support...

I stepped down to M5, to look for precise long entry...

*If any H1 candle closes below 1.1796 I would get rid of long order...

I thought it would be an easy, short trade down to 1.1780, but it turns out the market changed its mind and someone started buying around 1.1790.
I had to close my position halfway...

For me, no more openings until 8:30AM because the European PMI, especially the German one, always likes to stir things up, so both bulls and bears have a chance to win something this morning, depending on the outcome.

Today's packed with news events. Not looking to actively trade today. Still holding my buy position from yesterday's Frankfurt Session open and it's still looking good.

H1 candle close happened below 1.1796... I closed long with little profits... Now on sidelines!

*I can continue buying only if a candle closes above 1.1796 or somewhere lower around 1.1777....