Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

[5]

This is a quick, almost reset. A move to the MP is preferred, but you take what is given. There is divergence at that hit to the top of the MP Zone. A pause just below the MA is not uncommon and with the other indications is an acceptable entry spot.



Depending how you worked this one is what your results are. I don't go much into that aspect as it is a personal taste thing in how one manages trades. Me, if I think it might keep going I will try to milk it. I do have limits to how much I am willing to allow the market to take back.

Time charts suck.

NQ Looks ok for a start.

I put a vwap on with std dev bands. On the 3-range is also a cumulative delta based on bid/ask. I admit I do not mess with volume much, but I wanted to see how what I put together without volume compares with these two volume based indis. Along with that comes the always the constant desire to improve if possible and feasible. On creating a system without volume that rivals one that uses volume I have done it. As far as can these two volume indis improve what I have and it is possible. Not much but that slight increment.

So yeah, I am a bit of a genius. It is what it is.

The vwap I am using gives the option for day, week, or month. I like using the week parameter on some things. Here is the 34-range showing last week. The vwap starts at the start of the week and builds from there. Rather interesting. A new week starts the process all over.

Hey Forex Factory,

why do you highlight this "news" story when she is not a voting member and has little influence.

After observing the volume indis today I can see they are not needed as they do not add much if anything. I will keep the weekly vwap on the 34-range for now. Everything else with volume is gone.

Conclusion on the vwap. As I thought, the vwap does not add anything significant to the system. Not to say it can't help someone. My system has unconsciously mostly taken volume into account. I say this based on my indis and the vwap running close enough to not have any real advantage.

Price basically moves in irregular spurts culminating in either a "sideways" move of a random period or a V/Inverted-V. This is a simplistic way to look at PA, but it is how price moves. Sometimes these moves form into longer/larger trends. Most of this is relative to the observer and at what level price is being observed. Many of these moves and stops and pauses come at a level of some type be it pivots or O, H, L, C, or fib levels. All these characteristics can be found to some degree in about any instrument that is traded. What we need to do is figure out how to interpret all that.

The first pic is the 10-range from Friday with the fib levels set as I use them. The second pic is the same view with some rectangular areas highlighted. These areas are often precursors to tradable moves.

Dropping to the 3-range we see the behavior is the same. This PA is what gives us the raw moves that I analyzed and built a system around. This plays out in some variation to this every day. To me the only uncertainty at this point are the random unscheduled "news" drops. And it's not these in themselves but the often moronic reactions to them.

10-range

10-range


3-range

3-range

10-range of the same period with the system dropped on it.

Going to drop to the 3-range in a bit. Hopefully impart some wisdom.

Before I get there, this is the 34-range showing this past week. The violet is the Mid-Point. The Blue is the long-term and the Green is the short-term. Looking at the Blue and Green you can see how they contain price in various forms of "cycles". Since everything is a derivative of price, including time bars, you should be able to see the ma's as just a version of price it becomes easier to see how things fit (or not). What it boils down to is cycles within cycles, which is Price in the Green in the Blue. Yeah it could get a little confusing.

On the 3-range it is mainly the Gold cycle with the Red assisting and occasionally taking the lead. Again, while I go through this, the concepts work on most any instrument. They even work on time bars. The indis are not as clean. Also, I built the system around price to suit my trading style (short-term). With some thought one could do the same to fit their own needs.

Here is the 3-range going into the 09:45 time point. This is my "start" point for the day. As you go through the day awareness of static levels is a must. Two things to take note of here is the very obvious dip below the Green. Price has been on the Long side so this could likely portend a turn to the Short side. The other, more important, is price moving to the Short side of the Gold. Time to look for a short trade.

Singing in a honky tonk cafe, nobodies hearing what you play, their too busy drinking anyway,

ya' gotta keep on smilin', brother, keep on smilin'

I do scroll in.





This area had an entry. Price bouncing on the support side of the weekly R1. The DblStoch dropped to almost oversold. Taking the line up ro a potential entry you can see that is the high side. An alternative would be a buy limit near the Waldo Line. There was enough time to do that quick task. Then work the trade until it crossed to the Sell side. Alternative here is to just TP the 100% fib.

Move forward in time some and zoom back out. The Long-Gold cycle is clear and yes we are on the Short side of Gold.

It is important to check the bigger picture on a regular basis. If zoomed in all the time you lose sight of the forest because of the trees.

"Come to me, all you who labor and are burdened,
and I will give you rest.
Take my yoke upon you and learn from me,
for I am meek and humble of heart;
and you will find rest for yourselves.
For my yoke is easy, and my burden light."

Matt 11:28-30