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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #5,421
  • Edited 7:21pm Aug 14, 2007 7:04pm | Edited 7:21pm
This is the first time I have taken such a long time frame trade too... so truth is, my stop is huge and my trade size is very small... so actually I don't know whether it is worth for the money... I am doing it this time on principle of the matter... because the PB was there and it looked like a good one to me...

mbqb11 says if you make trade on monthly... look at that trade only on a monthly basis... do not close out until your target is hit OR check status of the trade ofter one month on the monthly time frame... I fully expected this trade to last 2- 5- months... I am up pips now, but maybe it will be up and down till I hit targets... my targets are 8160 and 7960...

Zooming even further out on the charts I think I see an even bigger H & S pattern...

A few more pips and I will move stops to lock in some profit... may change targets later too if need be.
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  • #5,422
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:17pm Aug 14, 2007 7:17pm
Sounds good, thanks. And goodluck in your trade!!!

Quoting Tiki Trader
This is the first time I have taken such a long time frame trade too... so truth is, my stop is huge and my trade size is very small... so actually I don't know whether it is worth for the money... I am doing it this time on principle of the matter... because the PB was there and it looked like a good onw to me...

mbqb11 says if you make trade on monthly... look at that trade only on a monthly basis... do not close out until your target is hit OR check status of the trade ofter one month on the monthly time frame... I fully expected this trade to last 2- 5- months... I am up pips now, but maybe it will be up and down till I hit targets... my targets are 8160 and 7960...

A few more pips and I will move stops to lock in some profit... may change targets later too if need be.
  • #5,423
  • Aug 14, 2007 9:20pm Aug 14, 2007 9:20pm
  •  007
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: "Undisciplined Trader" | 49 Posts
No one recently pays attention on eur/usd ??? hopes not, otherwise you guyz might regret for being missed out this great set-up....... by the way, i took a short trade @ 1.3600 aiming for 1.3380 with risk-free, I think it's a bit late for the party but still better than never.

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/6181/eurusdaq3.gif
  • #5,424
  • Aug 14, 2007 10:02pm Aug 14, 2007 10:02pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Zooming even further out on the charts I think I see an even bigger H & S pattern...

A few more pips and I will move stops to lock in some profit... may change targets later too if need be.
bigger H&S...? where?

I am planning on entering on a retrace of the break down, if it happens. If not, eh, whatever. But retraces must occur--the question is how much much.
  • #5,425
  • Aug 14, 2007 10:19pm Aug 14, 2007 10:19pm
I've really learned something from the markets the last two weeks: I (we) have to know when to trade! All of last week, almost all pairs were in consolidation mode, back and forth, and no real trending action happening. Compare that with the first 3 days of this week already! While I've been working on other things and didn't get to look at charts from a James16 price action perspective much this week, there were several daily IBs that broke, and are still going. Easily could have locked in hundreds of pips and dollars right now.

What this teaches me is that I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money! Somewhere else I read that it's hard to be a trader because we have ingrained in our minds that we must work several hours per day. But trading daily charts can be very profitible, and it only takes maybe an hour per day (for me anyway, for other experienced traders probably less) of analysis to cover everything! Making money on 1 hour per day seems too good to be true, so we force trades during periods of consolidation when the market doesn't know where it's going (so how could we?), and we lose money.

Sure, there were opportunities last week, but not that many really with daily charts, and I just can't do 4HR charts, as all the action seems to happen smack in the middle of my REM sleep. :-) I mean, think about it--just an average of one or two well placed daily trades per week on average should get you enough pips to easily get several hundred per month. Why scrap on 4HR and 1HR charts, unless you just have the time and desire to do so, or live in a non-US time zone? :-)
  • #5,426
  • Aug 15, 2007 2:55am Aug 15, 2007 2:55am
Josh

Here is zoomed out monthly AUD/USD... won't say I am a big expert... but doesn't that look like a big ol H & S ?? I am quite often wrong... so don't go by me !!! especially don't trade what I say...
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  • #5,427
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:07am Aug 15, 2007 3:07am
Quoting JoshDance

What this teaches me is that I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money! Somewhere else I read that it's hard to be a trader because we have ingrained in our minds that we must work several hours per day. But trading daily charts can be very profitible, and it only takes maybe an hour per day (for me anyway, for other experienced traders probably less) of analysis to cover everything! Making money on 1 hour per day seems too good to be true, so we force trades during periods of consolidation when the market doesn't know where it's going (so how could we?), and we lose money.

I think it was Trader888 in the How to be a trader for a company?
Thread. Some very interesting stuff.

And
Quote
"I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money"
albeit a bit differently phrased has become part of 2 signatures now

I cut it down to "no setup = no trade".

As for EURUSD - weekly BEOB was a setup, then an IB => breakdown of those two coulda been a viable entry. The short I had the other day I already closed again at 1.3505.
I am watching 1.3250 like a hawk instead and any reaction off of 1.3440-50.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,428
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:20am Aug 15, 2007 5:20am
Quoting JoshDance
I've really learned something from the markets the last two weeks: I (we) have to know when to trade! All of last week, almost all pairs were in consolidation mode, back and forth, and no real trending action happening. Compare that with the first 3 days of this week already! While I've been working on other things and didn't get to look at charts from a James16 price action perspective much this week, there were several daily IBs that broke, and are still going. Easily could have locked in hundreds of pips and dollars right now.

What this teaches me is that I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money! Somewhere else I read that it's hard to be a trader because we have ingrained in our minds that we must work several hours per
I mean, think about it--just an average of one or two well placed daily trades per week on average should get you enough pips to easily get several hundred per month. Why scrap on 4HR and 1HR charts, unless you just have the time and desire to do so, or live in a non-US time zone? :-)
You hit the nail on the head Josh!
That's my thinking too. A lot of people who are new to the game, get killed because they have the need to trade. They can't stay aside for a few days when no good setups are coming up. They have to trade something. (I'm still guilty of this sometimes)

But if you pick the best setups (which might only be a few a week or less) you can be really profitable and consistent which is key.
Cherry pick the trades and you won't regret it. When you take A trades and B trades and C+ trades too, your balance is all over the place.

Tom
  • #5,429
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:55am Aug 15, 2007 5:55am
The results of my third month of trading daily PINs are in.

Last month, the final four trades improved my overall result to + 1532 pips and a return of 11.5 times the risk per trade. The 4 trades that were still open when I last reported all made a positive contribution.

This month hasn't been so good. I identified 43 PINs, 18 of which were losers. Overall the result was -869 pips, equivalent to a total loss of 12 times the risk per trade on trades in the direction of the main trend. My strategy of taking all PINs in the direction of the trend came unstuck when most of the trends reversed.

I think this result just confirms what has been said many times before in this thread - you have to trade only the best set-ups & then apply good money management & risk management. Two months of fantastic results demoing all PINs had lulled me into a false sense of security.

I have now done a lot more backtesting of PINs & remain convinced that they give a positive edge. I just need to work on my selection skills so that I select the best ones & pass on the rest.
  • #5,430
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:23am Aug 15, 2007 6:23am
Quoting Tiki Trader
This is the first time I have taken such a long time frame trade too... so truth is, my stop is huge and my trade size is very small... so actually I don't know whether it is worth for the money... I am doing it this time on principle of the matter... because the PB was there and it looked like a good one to me...

mbqb11 says if you make trade on monthly... look at that trade only on a monthly basis... do not close out until your target is hit OR check status of the trade ofter one month on the monthly time frame... I fully expected this trade to last 2- 5- months... I am up pips now, but maybe it will be up and down till I hit targets... my targets are 8160 and 7960...

Zooming even further out on the charts I think I see an even bigger H & S pattern...

A few more pips and I will move stops to lock in some profit... may change targets later too if need be.
0.8000 is a huge support area on both weekly and monthly, also the monthly 365EMA is in that area. Still 200 pips to go. Good luck and keep your stop tight!
Take a report.
  • #5,431
  • Aug 15, 2007 7:44am Aug 15, 2007 7:44am
Quoting JoshDance
I've really learned something from the markets the last two weeks: I (we) have to know when to trade! All of last week, almost all pairs were in consolidation mode, back and forth, and no real trending action happening. Compare that with the first 3 days of this week already! While I've been working on other things and didn't get to look at charts from a James16 price action perspective much this week, there were several daily IBs that broke, and are still going. Easily could have locked in hundreds of pips and dollars right now.

What this teaches me is that I do NOT have to trade, even for weeks at a time, to make money! Somewhere else I read that it's hard to be a trader because we have ingrained in our minds that we must work several hours per day. But trading daily charts can be very profitible, and it only takes maybe an hour per day (for me anyway, for other experienced traders probably less) of analysis to cover everything! Making money on 1 hour per day seems too good to be true, so we force trades during periods of consolidation when the market doesn't know where it's going (so how could we?), and we lose money.

Sure, there were opportunities last week, but not that many really with daily charts, and I just can't do 4HR charts, as all the action seems to happen smack in the middle of my REM sleep. :-) I mean, think about it--just an average of one or two well placed daily trades per week on average should get you enough pips to easily get several hundred per month. Why scrap on 4HR and 1HR charts, unless you just have the time and desire to do so, or live in a non-US time zone? :-)

to be honest - my first week of demoing started with 25 trades!!! first week!! the 2nd went down to about 15 - last week ( my 10th week) i traded only once, but in few entrances - that were all very very good setups - daily setup that came after a 4h pin and a 1 hour 150 retrace, this week i made my 1st trade this morning - after the break of the monthly PB on the USDCAD, i am considering to enter another trade on the daily basis - if it shows a setup - these are just examples - i improved my account in about 5% (i don't know if it is much or enough to anyone - it is for me) in the last 3 weeks of picking only the best setups!!! i mean the best by that i am looking on a PA setup which we all know - TBH TBHLC PB IB I4B - all of these, once i see them and regarding S/R i decide by a feeling also but also by the move of the last few days if i am ready to put my 1% risk on this trade - i have lost hunderds of pips in the last few weeks - lost in a sense of not taking them, but i am OK with that, i dont care taking only what i decide to take as long as i lose less.

hope that helps to someone

Michael
  • #5,432
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:20pm Aug 15, 2007 3:20pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I am more and more of the opinion that the good Pin Bars are really compressed head and shoulders patterns... as some else on this thread mentioned a ways back...
and i strongly believe that pin bars/ hammers/shooting stars works because of the momentum involved in such a price action
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #5,433
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:48pm Aug 15, 2007 3:48pm
And again about the monthly PB on this pair... I am now within 16 pips of my first target at 8160... + 290 pips right now... this pair has dropped like a rock for the last few days... I had no idea I would be to this point so fast... so there is that momentum MrDemark talks of too...

I don't trust USD/CAD much, but I would go so far as to say that pair is taking aim at the 150 ema on daily charts right now... And in my simpleton way of operating, I see USD/CAD turning to the upside... thie higher gas prices this year have not materialised, and so while all will say it is more complicated than this... I say, AND sometimes TRADE USD/CAD according to gas prices...
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  • #5,434
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:52pm Aug 15, 2007 3:52pm
Taking aim on ema 150 daily
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  • #5,435
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:54pm Aug 15, 2007 3:54pm
Quoting Mr demark
and i strongly believe that pin bars/ hammers/shooting stars works because of the momentum involved in such a price action
yep. Without the proper order flow that these patterns create, price will not follow through
  • #5,436
  • Aug 15, 2007 3:59pm Aug 15, 2007 3:59pm
mbqb11

So would that confirm my idea of a good PB being a compressed H & S ??? Well, maybe not my idea.... yours probably !!! Think that's where I heard it !!!
  • #5,437
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:01pm Aug 15, 2007 4:01pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
mbqb11

So would that confirm my idea of a good PB being a compressed H & S ???
depending on how you want to look at it. It might not show up on the charts. For example if price spikes up 60 pts then back down instantly. You have a pinbar but not HS pattern on your chart. The concept of a PB being compressed HS still is a valid observation, if that helps you understand what you are doing better.
  • #5,438
  • Aug 15, 2007 4:40pm Aug 15, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Taking aim on ema 150 daily

Yep this is top of my forward planning list.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #5,439
  • Aug 15, 2007 5:33pm Aug 15, 2007 5:33pm
As for the Pin timing/"delay": I personally allow a PB + IB then double-trigger to be okay. Mike is stricter in this regard I believe. I'm also fine with a 2 bar PB + 2 bar smaller PB at retrace + double-trigger takeoff. But those are usually a bit more iffy.

One has to once again be careful with the more advanced stuff and bar merging and timeframe mixing and whatnot. End of the day you start seeing things and Caspar the friendly ghost is your best buddy or something.

Anyway, if a PB doesn't trigger ASAP then there's obviously something wrong. We want STRONG rejections, not "meh, mayyyyyyyybe I'll eventually come around some day" I'd say.

I wouldn't think in days but in bars as always. Staying on the same timeframe. Then it's like I wrote above.

Hope this helps.

As always when I write anything - keep in mind this is all PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE and preference. I am by no means a perfect nor flawless trader even if clever posting of those trades that DO work out can make it seem like that sometimes

I am still very much a beginner.

Just have to mention that from time to time


Take care,

SeekingLight[/quote]

Hi SeekingLight,

Back in post 5270 you mentioned "double-trigger" and "double-trigger take off" What did you mean by there terms?

Thanks Ray
  • #5,440
  • Aug 15, 2007 6:26pm Aug 15, 2007 6:26pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
And again about the monthly PB on this pair... I am now within 16 pips of my first target at 8160... + 290 pips right now... this pair has dropped like a rock for the last few days... I had no idea I would be to this point so fast... so there is that momentum MrDemark talks of too...

I don't trust USD/CAD much, but I would go so far as to say that pair is taking aim at the 150 ema on daily charts right now... And in my simpleton way of operating, I see USD/CAD turning to the upside... thie higher gas prices this year have not materialised, and so while all will say it is more complicated than this... I say, AND sometimes TRADE USD/CAD according to gas prices...
Congrats!!! I took an identical signal on the NZD/USD and am at +520. It did drop fast!
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