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EURUSD only

  • #215,241
  • Sep 16, 2025 12:17am Sep 16, 2025 12:17am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
From here on forwards I would say: If bears can't kick in around 1.1780/90 asap, another bull rally can show...
That's not good for me at all. So ist das Leben, eh.
  • #215,242
  • Sep 16, 2025 12:18am Sep 16, 2025 12:18am
Key Takeaways:

  1. EUR is very oversold on positioning.
  2. High short exposure increases risk of short squeeze if any bullish catalyst occurs.
  3. USD positioning is neutral, so any reversal in EUR could drive a sharp EURUSD move.
  4. Current setup suggests bearish bias for EURUSD, but reversal potential exists due to crowded shorts.

  • #215,243
  • Sep 16, 2025 12:23am Sep 16, 2025 12:23am
Quoting Insider00
{quote} That's not good for me at all. So ist das Leben, eh.
Die dicke Dame hat noch nicht gesungen.. Es sieht etwas ekelhaft aus für Bären aber da könnte noch 'ne Gelegenheit poppen.. Kopf hoch mein Freund
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #215,244
  • Sep 16, 2025 12:35am Sep 16, 2025 12:35am
1.17884 marks the 6M swing high. Looking back, the last time price went to this area it left a 24.6 Pip wick on the 4H ultimately leading to a -343 Pip downtrend. From my perspective I believe that the market may reverse once the area is wicked again however I am looking for more confluences to back up my statement.
  • #215,245
  • Sep 16, 2025 12:40am Sep 16, 2025 12:40am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
From here on forwards I would say: If bears can't kick in around 1.1780/90 asap, another bull rally can show...
1788 is the previous high and should be respected i think
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #215,246
  • Sep 16, 2025 12:54am Sep 16, 2025 12:54am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Die dicke Dame hat noch nicht gesungen.. Es sieht etwas ekelhaft aus für Bären aber da könnte noch 'ne Gelegenheit poppen.. Kopf hoch mein Freund
ZEW could have caused a small or larger loss of my position. I stopped at 1.1716 and stubbornly believed in a move to 1.16242. I didn't see, but to be honest, I didn't want to see, the market signals for an upward move to 1.18–1.1960. Like don Quijote de la Mancha.
No more crying, back to making money.
  • #215,247
  • Sep 16, 2025 1:00am Sep 16, 2025 1:00am
Quoting johncen
{quote} 1788 is the previous high and should be respected i think
bulls momentum is super sonic
  • #215,248
  • Sep 16, 2025 1:48am Sep 16, 2025 1:48am
A bearish divergence is forming on H4. It is likely that there will be a decline now.
  • #215,249
  • Sep 16, 2025 1:50am Sep 16, 2025 1:50am
Quoting innoswai
{quote}bulls momentum is super sonic
yea no sign of bear
july high got taken
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #215,250
  • Sep 16, 2025 1:59am Sep 16, 2025 1:59am
Quoting Henryk
A bearish divergence is forming on H4. It is likely that there will be a decline now.
Later by noon there will be very important news Regarding EU let us see the results
  • #215,251
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:02am Sep 16, 2025 2:02am
Understand one thing in trading, when everyone is talking about how bullish the market is or how "oversold" it is based on their RSI- you should probably start to look for positions in the opposite direction
Retail traders are always wrong at extremes and EURUSD is at a Bearish extreme for commercials meaning retail traders are at a Bullish extreme, let that sink in.
OI Trader
  • #215,252
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:24am Sep 16, 2025 2:24am
Quoting fxchasing
Understand one thing in trading, when everyone is talking about how bullish the market is or how "oversold" it is based on their RSI- you should probably start to look for positions in the opposite direction Retail traders are always wrong at extremes and EURUSD is at a Bearish extreme for commercials meaning retail traders are at a Bullish extreme, let that sink in.
No! No! and No!

One must always trade based on his/her quality analysis... not based on people, news or some holy grail indicator...
Those might work here and there yes, but it never serve as a reliable source.. That habit can fool you big...

Best regards
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #215,253
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:27am Sep 16, 2025 2:27am
Bulls are very strong zero signs of bears
  • #215,254
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:30am Sep 16, 2025 2:30am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} No! No! and No! One must always trade based on his/her quality analysis... not based on people, news or some holy grail indicator... Those might work here and there yes, but it never serve as a reliable source.. That habit can fool you big... Best regards
Yes! Yes! and Yes!
I never mentioned that you should trade based off indicators lol, they don't work. You have to understand COT data if you want to be successful. I have said before I am a swing trader so obviously COT data won't work if you are scalping. Never use indicators, it's retail rubbish. What I am saying is when people say that a market is oversold based OFF OF AN INDICATOR you should not listen. You cannot tell if a market is actually overbought or oversold based from an RSI and so on...
Also if you aren't looking at fundamentals such as COT Reports you will be in for a very big surprise
OI Trader
  • #215,255
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:47am Sep 16, 2025 2:47am
Quoting fxchasing
{quote} Yes! Yes! and Yes! I never mentioned that you should trade based off indicators lol, they don't work. You have to understand COT data if you want to be successful. I have said before I am a swing trader so obviously COT data won't work if you are scalping. Never use indicators, it's retail rubbish. What I am saying is when people say that a market is oversold based OFF OF AN INDICATOR you should not listen. You cannot tell if a market is actually overbought or oversold based from an RSI and so on... Also if you aren't looking at fundamentals...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2025-09-16 094030.png Size: 6 KB

Exactly, FF positions: 91% short, 9% long… and market still bullish. Retail squeeze in action.
  • #215,256
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:49am Sep 16, 2025 2:49am
Quoting fxchasing
{quote} Yes! Yes! and Yes! I never mentioned that you should trade based off indicators lol, they don't work. You have to understand COT data if you want to be successful. I have said before I am a swing trader so obviously COT data won't work if you are scalping. Never use indicators, it's retail rubbish. What I am saying is when people say that a market is oversold based OFF OF AN INDICATOR you should not listen. You cannot tell if a market is actually overbought or oversold based from an RSI and so on... Also if you aren't looking at fundamentals...
Every gambler without "exception" says that after plums come melons. And how many of these players have become rich and lived happily? Stop making COT a fountain of knowledge. It's a lie! If I tell you to jump out of the window, will you jump? Here are people with their knowledge, experience, big losses, but also profits, with paper and pencils on the table so they can take notes and draw graphs. We always started from scratch and talked about all our mistakes together, but we also talked to them about our profits. We weren't ashamed of our losses. Turn on your brain, a healthy normal brain!
And now I have to think about how to reduce the loss of my position in sales, and I don't need such comments with COT demagoguery. I use several views, many articles, forecasts, and indicators, and COT it´s nothing for me!
  • #215,257
  • Sep 16, 2025 2:52am Sep 16, 2025 2:52am
Quoting s.jalili
{quote} {image} Exactly, FF positions: 91% short, 9% long… and market still bullish. Retail squeeze in action.
Many say that the market doesn't go against traders. So maybe it's the traders who go against the trend, constantly looking for shorts as the price rises.
  • #215,258
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:03am Sep 16, 2025 3:03am
Quoting Insider00
{quote} Every gambler without "exception" says that after plums come melons. And how many of these players have become rich and lived happily? Stop making COT a fountain of knowledge. It's a lie! If I tell you to jump out of the window, will you jump? Here are people with their knowledge, experience, big losses, but also profits, with paper and pencils on the table so they can take notes and draw graphs. We always started from scratch and talked about all our mistakes together, but we also talked to them about our profits. We weren't ashamed of...
Then keep buying EURUSD!
OI Trader
  • #215,259
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:05am Sep 16, 2025 3:05am
Quoting s.jalili
{quote} {image} Exactly, FF positions: 91% short, 9% long… and market still bullish. Retail squeeze in action.
You should just look at the underlying asset which would be EUR futures and DXY futures, then you would see that EURUSD is only in supply from today
OI Trader
  • #215,260
  • Sep 16, 2025 3:08am Sep 16, 2025 3:08am
Quoting Cavar
{quote} Many say that the market doesn't go against traders. So maybe it's the traders who go against the trend, constantly looking for shorts as the price rises.
Well it was pointless shorting EURUSD up until now as its been in no mans land.. COT is not a timing tool.. it's your directional bias.
OI Trader
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