Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

Thought the watermark was a nice touch.

Alrighty now. Done for sure.

Now I be done.

Gold 1-min. I am including a mq4 file for the vix fix. Not sure if it runs in real time as I do not have a live/demo mt4 connection. I have the editor and an IG platform with enough data to see if the indi loads or not. The other indis are a double stochastic and an RVI - relative volatility indicator. Some of the MAs use a linreg as the base input.

Gold is not my focus. I do this on occasion as a side project.

This is my focus. Price as depicted by range bars. One nice thing about range bars is the ability to sync, up to a certain point, various indicators across all "time" frames or more specifically bar sizes. I have three moving averages sync'd across my three charts. These are the longer-term Blue, the medium-term Green which can be viewed as the primary cycle, and the Mid-Point Orchid. The mid-point is significant as it does perform as a dynamic mean. It is the point where price reverts to and often moves from. Rarely will there be an occasion where price goes right through this point. This is trading and it can and has happened.

All I post is specific to the instrument I trade, the concepts and process can be duplicated on most any instrument. What I have done is what I set out to do after I came to the realization I cannot trade naked charts. My initial attempts, as those previously, were with time charts. It was not until I did some immersion in renko and range bars that I got to this point.

Wish you well this week. Should have some fireworks with the fed. Even if it's priced in already. I can only guess. I'm gonna be cautious of chop and ranges. Stay green.

Used the last 3 days to finish the system. Today was observe it in more volatile conditions. All is good.

Using the High/Low of the previous week to set the 0/100 levels for a fib. I just extended this fib from the high and low with standard fib extensions.

One more try at explanation. Will attempt to keep it simple. Broken record part, this methodology is adaptable across instruments and chart types to a degree. Works best on range bars. No parameters will be posted. Ask/participate/receive. I am defining this system as a throwback to the old school days of 90s, early 2000s when a system such as this was all the thing. I use three moving averages across all three charts. These are sync'd across the charts about as much as I can feasibly get them. These are the Blue which is longer-term, the Green which defines the cycles, and the Violet which is the mid-point of the system. The oscillator is the rate of change of the violet mid-point in histogram form. This replaces the MACD on all charts.

The long-term chart is a 34-range bar chart. Naturally used to see the bigger picture. The fibs are also set off this chart. The fib is calculated using the prior week High/Low. The extensions come off the 0% and 100% as expected. Equity indexes adhere to levels for the most part. They almost seem designed for pure technical analysis. That is about it. How I trade and have set this system up, there is no need to look for structure breaks or any other such thing. The levels are launch areas and target areas which should be clearly seen.

Concept time and how I have addressed it. Mean reversion. In simple terms this is price coming back to a mean or average. The question is, what is that point. Each instrument would have a different point. What is it for this one. Through a process I decided to use the median point defined by the Vegas Tunnel calculation for its median point. The inputs for this are adjusted for the chart bar size. This is the violet line on the charts. Through observation I decided this is a point to trade to and from. This is essentially the mean for this instrument.

The next will use the 10-range and go more into the guts of this thing. Tomorrow some time. Plan on completion some time this weekend.

[1]

I was going to use the 10-range first then drop down to the 3-range, when I realized I would end up going over the same basic things with both. The 10-range is set up to mimic the 3-range as close as I can get it and maintain the validity of the system. I have found that when you fine tune too much in one area it tends to throw other areas off. Need to identify as closely as possible the balance point. You can trade the 10-r the same, keeping in mind the need for a bit bigger stop and that the entries will likely not be as precise. All the previous concepts are still valid for the discussion going forward, such as Buy-side/Sell-side. The only difference is I have changed my approach toward the mid-point in that it now is an initial target or launching point.

The price panel of the chart has been fairly stable. The only significant addition is the fib based off the prior week high and low. The oscillator panels have changed significantly over time. This has been an at times a seemingly impossible endeavor. I would say the task has been finally accomplished. What is kind of amazing is that the top two use just price. No extra tweaking of price to make the oscillator fit. Nice. The first is the double stochastic, the second is the RVI, Relative Volatility Indicator. The latter has introduced a chart reading method I never used much, but is clear here and that is divergence. The last replaces the MACD. This is a ROC, rate of change, of the mid-point. The last indicator is price itself.

When I really think about what this system is, what at first glance looks to be a hot mess, is an amalgamation of much of what I have learned and opined about how the market works. As all the attempts to learn others methods have basically been abject failures, I have created my own reality in tackling this little conundrum we call the markets.

No, I have not figured how to automate this to MY satisfaction. Yet.

Learning to "code" in c# has been interesting. That is ninjatrader's coding language.

[2]

Crazy to restrict myself to one range for explanations. Especially when I can't fit enough of the 3-range sometimes. Oh well.
The name of the game is "Where's Waldo". Waldo being price. Any casual observation of price movement during the day and it should be obvious that for most instruments on most days price movement is a constant give and take in its up and down moves. In order for me to see this movement better I created a dynamic framework that price moves in.

This first pic is the 34-range showing price moving up in a Blue-Long cycle then topping out and changing into a Blue-Short cycle. Within the Blue-Long are a couple long and short Green cycles. Working alongside this dynamic framework is the static framework. This consist of the weekly fib, weekly pivots, daily pivots, daily high, low, open, and close. As you can see the framework is exhaustive and thorough. A point of notice is that the Green and the new mid-point are relatively close and move in unison. This would be a case of me discovering something after it was discovered apparently. The mid-point is the median value from the vegas tunnel calculation. I have declared this as the dynamic mid-point or mean of my system. This point becomes a main focus for an initial target for entries toward and a potential point to take entries from. This concept works in naturally as entries are mostly to the mean or from the mean.



This next pic is the 10-range that covers the area outlined above. I marked it up to show some major points. I will use this to explain some more.

[3]

The 10-range showing price moving down from Friday. It eventually tested the 50% fib (fibs are based off prior week high and low), made a Long Gold cross, and pushed up about 20 pts. It then did a Short Gold cross. The chart ends around where I usually start with the next expected cycle being Long Gold.



The 3-range showing a closer view of the point of entry and the Gold cycles leading to it. You can see the Weekly PP and the Green providing a base with price being Long Green at this point. We are also at the bottom of the MP Zone (mid-point). From here a good target would be the Blue and the overnight open.



An even closer look. Through observation I have concluded a few things with my oscillators that hold true for the most part. Divergence right before entry between price and the RVI. When the DblStoch crosses above (below) the 50.



Showing the move to the possible target area. This plays out all the time in various, yet similar forms. Any spot between the arrows is an entry. Don't need to be exactly perfect.

[4]

The Long Gold finished out and moved into a Short Gold. This was definitely some sloppy PA and left for a later discussion. It has led to a potential Long Gold. With price being Long Green and Long NY Open, sitting in the MP Zone, and testing the Blue make a good argument to just look for Longs.



Closer look at the set up. Price, DblStoch, and RVI are all angled up indicating a Long move. Red slid above Gold. All the MAs are derivatives of price and being such certain behavior is indicative of certain potential moves. This is one. The area outlined in the rectangle is indicative of price moving sideways in the MP Zone.



The set up is there. Price is moving to the Buy-Side of Gold. Like it says, just take it.