Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

USDJPY rally: yen avoids risk

The USDJPY pair surged to 148.80, with political imbalance weighing on the yen outlook. Find out more in our analysis for 3 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair is rising rapidly
2. The market is monitoring political issues and pricing in these risks
3. USDJPY forecast for 3 September 2025: 148.90

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate climbed to 148.80 midweek. The yen reached a one-month low amid political uncertainty in Japan.

Hiroshi Moriyama, secretary of the ruling party and close ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, announced his resignation. This fueled speculation about Ishiba’s potential departure, with pressure mounting after his election defeat. Among possible successors is Sanae Takaichi, known for her support of low interest rates.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino emphasised on Tuesday that the central bank will continue to raise rates gradually but noted the persistence of elevated global risks. This signals no urgency in tightening policy.

Investors now await fresh wage data, which should provide additional signals on the future course of monetary policy.

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JP 225 forecast: the uptrend has shifted to a short-term downtrend

The JP 225 index continues its correction within a downtrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan Tokyo CPI for August rose by 2.5% year-on-year
2. Market impact: this result is positive for the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year in August 2025, in line with forecasts but lower than the previous reading of 2.9%. For the Japanese equity market, this result matters. Easing inflation signals reduced pressure on consumers and businesses, which may act as a positive factor for domestic demand. However, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target (around 2.0%), supporting arguments for a cautious review of monetary policy.

For the JP 225, the sectoral impact is mixed. The consumer sector (retail, restaurants, and everyday goods) benefits from lower inflationary pressure, which supports purchasing power. Export-oriented companies may also gain if expectations of a softer Bank of Japan stance put downward pressure on the yen, improving competitiveness abroad. Conversely, the financial sector may face limits, as slower inflation reduces the likelihood of aggressive interest rate hikes, restraining bank margins.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Gold (XAUUSD) continues its rally: Fed rate outlook provides support

Gold (XAUUSD) prices stand at 3,550 USD by the end of the week. Pressure on the Fed is opening new opportunities for the precious metal. Find more details in our analysis for 5 September 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to climb, hitting new record highs
2. Expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts provide strong support for gold
3. XAUUSD forecast for 5 September 2025: 3,564 and 3,578

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) rose to 3,550 USD per ounce on Friday and remains near record highs, showing a weekly gain of over 3%. Support for the metal comes from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Weakness in the labour market – falling job vacancies, rising layoffs, and an increase in initial jobless claims to a two-month high – has strengthened expectations of Fed easing. The market is now pricing in not only a September rate cut but also up to three moves by the end of the year. This is favourable for gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index enters a downtrend within the correction phase

The growth momentum of the DE 40 index has slowed. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s factory orders for July 2025 fell by 2.9%
2. Market impact: this signals potential difficulties in industry and mechanical engineering for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s factory orders for August 2025 showed a sharp decline, with the actual reading at -2.9% versus the forecast of +0.5% and the previous level of -0.2%. This result indicates a significant drop in industrial demand, reflecting weaker domestic and external activity in the country’s key economic sector. For the German equity market, this signals potential challenges for industry and mechanical engineering, which traditionally form the backbone of the economy.

Negative orders dynamics lower expectations for future output and exports, reducing the investment appeal of companies linked to heavy industry, machinery, and component supply. For the DE 40 index, the overall impact is assessed as negative. The decline in orders undermines expectations for steady corporate earnings growth and may reinforce investor caution.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: prices attempt to break above resistance and set a new all-time high

The US 500 continues to rise but has not yet managed to overcome the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls for August came in at 22 thousand
2. Market impact: for the US equity market, this has a rather positive effect in the medium term

Fundamental analysis

The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls data for August 2025 showed 22 thousand new jobs, well below the forecast of 75 thousand and significantly weaker than the previous 79 thousand. This result signals a slowdown in labour market dynamics, which has multiple implications for the US stock market.

From a macroeconomic perspective, such a weak reading indicates declining demand from employers and potential cooling of the economy. For the US 500, this can act as a double-edged factor. On the one hand, weakness in employment may increase concerns about the sustainability of economic growth. On the other hand, a softer labour market could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a looser monetary policy than previously anticipated.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 forecast: the uptrend continues, but resistance has not yet been broken

After reaching a new all-time high, the trend in the US 30 index remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US PMI for August came in at 55.5
2. Market impact: for US equities, this result signals a cautious investor sentiment

Fundamental analysis

The US unemployment rate stood at 4.3% in line with market forecasts but above 4.2% in July. From a macroeconomic perspective, this indicates a gradual cooling of the labour market: a moderate rise in unemployment eases wage pressure and reduces service-sector inflation. In terms of financial conditions, this is generally favourable, as expectations of a softer monetary policy path increase, Treasury yields tend to decline, and funding costs for companies decrease. At the same time, the fact that unemployment is rising points to a slower pace of economic growth.

For the US 30, the signal is mixed. If markets interpret the figure as evidence of a soft landing, we may see a short-term improvement in risk appetite driven by lower yields and stronger expectations of Fed easing. However, if focus shifts to risks for growth momentum, the index could show a more restrained performance given its heavy weighting in cyclical sectors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the uptrend has returned, with a new all-time high expected

The JP 225 index has resumed growth within its upward channel. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s quarterly GDP for August grew by 0.5% year-on-year
2. Market impact: this result is positive for the Japanese equity market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s Q2 GDP showed growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, above the forecast of 0.3% and the previous reading of 0.1%. This result signals that the Japanese economy is showing signs of recovery after a slowdown, which can boost investor confidence and support equities.

For the JP 225 index, this data is a broadly positive factor. GDP growth indicates stronger domestic demand and more resilient production and export dynamics, directly supporting revenues of Japan’s largest corporations included in the index. The financial sector benefits from rising economic activity, as it increases demand for loans and investment services. Industrial and export-oriented companies also gain support from higher global and domestic demand for Japanese goods.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD at a ten-month peak: growth may continue

The AUDUSD pair is consolidating around 0.6660 on Friday. The Australian dollar has every chance to close the week with its best result since April. Discover more in our analysis for 12 September 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The Australian dollar benefits from the weakening of the US dollar
2. Inflation risks in Australia support the RBA’s cautious stance on rates
3. AUDUSD forecast for 12 September 2025: 0.6669

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate has slightly declined, hovering near 0.6660, close to its highest level since early November 2024. The pair is on track to show its best week since April. Support for the AUD has come from improved risk appetite and expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut in the US.

US statistics showed stable inflation in August, while a rise in jobless claims confirmed weakness in the labour market. High metal prices, particularly for gold and silver, provided additional support for the Australian currency.

Domestic news in Australia showed that consumer inflation expectations rose in September after a decline in the previous month. This signals more resilient demand and renewed inflationary risks. RBA Governor Michele Bullock pointed to signs of somewhat stronger growth in the private sector, calling it a positive for the economy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index moves into a sideways channel

The DE 40 stock index has entered a sideways channel. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the ECB key interest rate remains at 2.15% per annum
2. Market impact: for the German equity market, this signals no additional borrowing cost pressure, which is seen as a stabilising factor

Fundamental analysis

The ECB decision to keep rates unchanged at 2.15% signals status quo in monetary policy. For the DE 40 index, this reduces short-term uncertainty and helps form a neutral sentiment among investors.

The financial sector, including banks and insurance companies, faces limited margin growth potential as lending yields remain stable. Industrial companies and exporters benefit from favourable financing conditions, which support investment in production and external trade. The consumer sector also gains indirect support: unchanged rates keep credit conditions affordable, sustaining household demand.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent continues upward momentum amid supply disruption risks

Brent quotes remain in a phase of steady growth, influenced by geopolitical factors and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decisions. The exchange rate currently stands at 67.23 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 16 September 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Investors await the Fed meeting and anticipate an interest rate cut
2. A Federal Reserve rate cut could stimulate economic activity and fuel demand
3. Possible EU sanctions may complicate logistics and reduce crude supply availability on the global market
4. Brent forecast for 16 September 2025: 67.50

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are moderately rising, posting a third consecutive positive trading session after rebounding from the 65.50 USD support level. The market remains under pressure from geopolitical risks linked to Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure, which heightens fears of supply disruptions and potential global output cuts.

An additional supportive factor comes from the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting. Investors are pricing in a rate cut, which could boost economic activity and fuel demand.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 forecast: the uptrend continues, resistance remains unbroken

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains unstable. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in August
2. Market impact: the current reading may have a mixed effect on the US equity market

Fundamental analysis

The US core CPI for August 2025 showed growth of 3.1% year-on-year, matching analysts’ forecasts and remaining unchanged from the previous month. This reflects persistent inflationary pressure in the economy, excluding volatile food and energy categories.

The index’s stability at above 3% highlights that inflation remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of around 2%. This signals to markets the need to maintain tight monetary policy. For US stocks, the data sets a neutral-to-restrained tone: on the one hand, the lack of deterioration (no sharp inflation spike) reduces the risk of aggressive Fed tightening, but on the other hand, inflation staying above target caps expectations of an imminent policy easing.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: prices approach the upper boundary of the upward channel

The JP 225 index continued to rise within the upward channel and hit a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s balance of trade for August came in at -242.5 billion JPY
2. Market impact: this result carries a positive signal for the Japanese equity market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s balance of trade for August 2025 stood at -242.5 billion JPY, better than the forecast of -513.6 billion JPY but weaker than the previous reading of -118.4 billion JPY. Although the trade deficit remained, the gap turned out nearly half as small as expected. This indicates stronger external economic conditions than anticipated and reduces concerns about pressure on the trade sector.

For the JP 225 index, the impact is mixed: on the upside, the result exceeded expectations, which supports confidence in Japanese companies’ export activity. On the downside, the deficit still widened compared to last month, reflecting reliance on energy and raw material imports.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY steady: volatility fades, but risks remain

The USDJPY pair has stabilised around 148.00. Although inflation data improved slightly, market tension remains. Find more details in our analysis for 19 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair recouped losses and is stabilising
2. The market awaits the Bank of Japan’s decision and assesses fresh inflation data
3. USDJPY forecast for 19 September 2025: 148.26

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is consolidating at 148.00 on Friday amid expectations of the Bank of Japan decision. The market generally expects the key rate to remain at 0.5%, although the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike in October is gradually increasing amid economic resilience.

Core inflation in Japan slowed to 2.7% in August, the lowest since November 2024. The decline is mainly due to the resumption of government subsidies for electricity and gas, as well as price adjustments for food products. At the same time, the rise in rice prices remains the main factor of inflationary pressure: in August, the price increased by 68.8% year-over-year, following jumps of almost 100% in June and 90.7% in July.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) storms all-time high

XAUUSD prices continue to strengthen, climbing above their all-time high into the 3,720 USD area as the US dollar weakens following the Fed’s rate cut. Discover more in our analysis for 22 September 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: gold has set a new all-time high around 3,720 USD
2. Current trend: strong upward momentum persists
3. XAUUSD forecast for 22 September 2025: 3,750 or 3,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes reached a new all-time high at 3,720 USD per ounce. Investors are now awaiting key US inflation data and commentary from several Federal Reserve officials this week to assess the outlook for monetary policy.

Last week, the Fed cut rates for the first time this year, lowering its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, while signalling room for further easing due to labour market weakness. Markets are currently pricing in two more 25-basis-point cuts this year, with one in October and another in December.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY: dollar strengthens, but gains capped by resistance

The USDJPY rate remains in consolidation within a sideways range, with the market focused on upcoming Fed remarks and key US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 147.81. Find out more in our analysis for 23 September 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Bank of Japan kept its key rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting
2. The regulator highlighted a moderate economic recovery in Japan
3. The BoJ pointed to risks associated with global trade policy
4. USDJPY forecast for 23 September 2025: 149.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is strengthening while remaining within a sideways range as sellers defend the key resistance level at 148.15. Market focus is on upcoming Fed commentary ahead of fresh US inflation data.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran noted that the current federal funds rate is too high and should be reduced to protect the US labour market. Scheduled for Tuesday are speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman. On Friday, market participants will focus on the August report on US personal income and outlays, which includes the core PCE price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD under pressure: domestic news looks unimpressive

The GBPUSD pair dropped to 1.3505. Investors are avoiding risks amid worsening conditions. Discover more in our analysis for 24 September 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The GBPUSD pair declines amid market doubts about the Bank of England’s stance
2. Domestic political contradictions also undermine the stability of the pound
3. GBPUSD forecast for 24 September 2025: 1.3450

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, the GBPUSD pair is falling to 1.3505 after a survey reflected a slowdown in business activity in the UK in early September. Companies reported a decline in momentum and confidence amid rising risks of tax hikes before the end of the year.

The preliminary S&P Global UK composite PMI fell from 53.5 points in August to 51.0 in September.

The pound struggles to sustain growth even against the backdrop of positive investor sentiment and British equities at record levels. Markets are pricing in only 7 basis points of Bank of England rate cuts before the end of the year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index approached the upper boundary of the ascending channel and hit new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index continues to rise within the ascending channel. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the Bank of Japan policy rate remains at 0.50%
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, in line with forecasts and the previous level. This decision signals continued cautious normalisation of monetary conditions without additional tightening that could significantly increase capital costs for corporations. Short-term uncertainty declines, and the risk premium on Japanese equities generally remains stable.

For the JP 225, the impact can be described as neutral to positive. The decision was widely expected, which supports investor appetite for risk assets and allows markets to focus on corporate earnings and global demand. The yen remains a key factor: a stable or weaker currency boosts export revenue conversion, traditionally providing support for the index.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD disappointed by expectations: the market agrees with the Fed

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1677 on Friday. Investors have become more optimistic regarding the Fed’s rate outlook. Discover more in our analysis for 26 September 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair ends the week with a noticeable decline
2. The overall Federal Reserve rate outlook has turned more optimistic
3. EURUSD forecast for 26 September 2025: 1.1644

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1677 at the end of the week.

Investors are awaiting the release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s key inflation gauge, which should provide new guidance on future policy.

On Thursday, data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims by 14 thousand to 218 thousand, significantly better than forecasts. The statistics indicate companies’ reluctance to lay off staff. Revised GDP figures also confirmed 3.8% annualized growth in Q2, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years, supported by strong consumer spending.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index breaks out of the sideways channel and continues to decline

The DE 40 index approached a resistance level, but the downtrend continues. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 came in at 87.7 points
2. Market impact: the figures create a restrictive backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s ifo Business Climate Index for September 2025 stood at 87.7 points, below the forecast of 89.3 and lower than the previous figure of 88.9. This reflects weakening optimism among German companies, with cautious expectations regarding business activity, domestic demand, and external conditions. The decline highlights ongoing pressure from high costs, weak exports, and global economic uncertainty.

For the German equity market, these figures form a restrictive backdrop. Declining business sentiment could reinforce investor caution, particularly in industry, machinery, and exports, which are traditionally sensitive to shifts in the business climate. Much will depend on the ECB’s next steps — any monetary easing could help support the German economy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent falls into the hands of the bears: rising supply signals nothing good

Brent slipped to 66.42 USD per barrel. The market is filled with negativity ahead of additional supply entering the market. Discover more in our analysis for 30 September 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Brent crude declines under pressure from geopolitics and OPEC+ rhetoric
2. Additional supply on the global market will push prices down even faster
3. Brent forecast for 30 September 2025: 65.40

Fundamental analysis

Brent crude fell to 66.42 USD per barrel on Tuesday, extending the decline of the previous session. Prices are under pressure from expectations of increased global supply and discussions of a possible ceasefire in Gaza.

Media reports suggest that at Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ may approve an additional output increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November.

Another factor was the resumption of oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan. Flows through the Iraq–Turkey pipeline were restored on Saturday after a US-brokered agreement between regional authorities, Baghdad, Turkey, and foreign companies.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team