Mental9ty Trading Journal

Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Jul 28, 2025

Global markets ended last week on a strong note. U.S. stock indexes climbed to record highs as investors cheered the prospect of trade deals (a U.S.–EU tariff framework and the U.S. - Japan tariff cut) and the strength of big tech and AI-driven earnings. Trump is in Scotland this week pending meetings with the ECB President and a meeting with the UK Prime Minister. This highlights a cautious risk-on market sentiment, driven by a weak US dollar and strong performances in risk-sensitive assets like EURUSD, AUDJPY, and BTCUSD. Major central banks are holding rates steady or cutting rates, supporting risk assets.

In my mind, I’m thinking of a risk-on stance for the coming week, favouring positions that benefit from a weaker dollar and stronger risk currencies. Key economic events, including US Employment, the Fed and BOJ rate decisions, will be crucial to watch, given their potential to sway market directions amidst ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.


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Update:
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I should really do this more often but here is an example of following my plan - This doesn't happen very often (I lose smaller positions more, but let the winning ones run), but you can see where I took my initial trade thinking about a support level (black line), but then chickened out and closed because it was so close to NFP (I don't trade news events).

I then had the thought that what about the lower level of support that started the previous day? I then zoomed back out on my charts to validate my theory and confirmed that it would be a good place to take a shot for the long side.

I'm currently still in this trade which is running around 190+ pips and I plan to hold this above the previous high

Working on my thoughts for next week atm.

Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Aug 4, 2025

After last week's news results (I’m still laughing at Trump and Powell’s TV meeting) - I think the market is in a heightened level of uncertainty at the moment. Especially after the central bank decisions and disappointing U.S. economic data (previous jobs data had to be revised down by a massive number). The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened to 98.69, while major central banks maintain cautious stances as trade tensions continue to influence global monetary policy decisions. The Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts (despite Trump's back slap on Powell), combined with ongoing trade developments and month-end flows, suggests heightened volatility ahead. Risk sentiment remains fragile with mixed signals from major economies and geopolitical uncertainties continuing to influence capital flows.

This week's focus will include the Bank of England's anticipated rate cut on August 7 (which would mark the third rate reduction in 2025) occurring against a backdrop of quarterly earnings reviews and month-end institutional rebalancing flows.

Of course we still have geopolitical tensions (Israel-Lebanon, Russia-Ukraine) and BRICS commodity shifts drive safe haven demand. We’ll also need to remember to trade cautiously while we’re in thinner summer liquidity for the upcoming weeks.

Last week I mentioned that I was cautiously risk-on and I think this should remain until I see a complete market reversal.


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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Aug 11, 2025

This week, everyone’s eyeballs are glued to U.S. inflation and an RBA rate decision. Inflation expectations move rates, rates move currency value. A weak U.S. CPI could mean Fed easing sooner, but also sparks a chain reaction like dollar softness, risk-on sentiment, capital flowing toward EM or higher-yielders. So markets are positioned for potential dollar weakness and a tilt toward growth assets - pending data. Last week's weak US jobs (and revision data) and manufacturing data didn't just signal a slowdown, they increased fears of recession, prompting markets to price in aggressive Fed rate cuts, which weakens the dollar but could spark risk-on rallies if inflation cools. Because we're in the summer months, I'm betting on a choppy week where the dollar softens mildly, euros and aussies could perk up on risk rebounds, and we might be seeing that effect in assets like bitcoin which is currently rebounding back into highs. Overall, As I’ve mentioned over the past week or so, I remain risk-on but with a parachute just in case!


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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Aug 18, 2025

Markets are entering the week expecting easier U.S. policy and calmer trade wars. In simple terms, traders are betting the Fed will cut rates soon, making the dollar feel weak (it’s around the high-97s on the DXY index). Everyone's also waiting to see what cards Jerome Powell will play at Jackson Hole. At the same time, the U.S. and China extended their tariff truce for 90 more days, which is like postponing a fight – a relief for companies planning holiday-season orders. All this suggests money will chase higher-growth assets outside the U.S.: Europe and emerging markets should get more flows. My thinking is that the dollar will remain under pressure (Fed cutting and political noises are headwinds) while those other currencies – euro, yen, even bitcoin may enjoy some tailwind (bullishness). Look out for EoM money flows/profit taking

Let’s also not forget that Trump and Putin met in Alaska over the weekend and we have Zelenskyy meeting Trump in the White House on Monday 18th along with a team to back him up for Round two of what hopefully won’t be another awkward encounter if no cease fire deal is struck.

Alfa Signal:

Zelenskyy suit = Likely deal
Zelenskyy no suit = No deal
I've got my popcorn ready

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Aug 25, 2025

Last week I continued my risk on call, but unfortunately I round tripped a trade I had a fortnight ago only for the markets to rip up the day after I was TPd . However, markets definitely turned noticeably more “dovish risk-on” after Fed chair Powell opened the door to possible rate cuts (markets immediately priced a September cut). Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech essentially said "maybe we'll cut rates, maybe we won't, but we're definitely watching the job market like hawks," traders are pricing in a whopping 91.5% chance of a September cut. That knocked the US dollar down and pushed risk assets up - crypto included, while central banks in Europe and Japan are showing more mixed signals (ECB whispering cuts later, BOJ leaning hawkish). In my mind, the week ahead tilts risk-on with cut hopes juicing AUD/JPY carries, but watch end-of-month flows such as pension rebalances which could dump into bonds, spiking volatility.. Including the volatility around US data (the jobs report and inflation reads) that will determine whether the Fed actually moves. Overall, the dollar softens if data cooperates.


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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Sep 1, 2025
Last week was mostly ranging due to the holiday season as institutions took summer holidays in the sun somewhere.. This week, I’m still looking at markets leaning mildly risk-on into the week of Sep 1 because the Fed has signalled a higher chance of rate cuts starting in September. This reduces the dollar’s yield advantage and helps risk assets (equities, EM FX, crypto).

But.. There are a few challenges to a risk-on move because we are in the last month of the quarter, which is the last quarter for the US fiscal calendar - also we have end of month rebalancing which could see the markets turn risk-off. I also see some downside risk in equities (See Major Incides slide). Liquidity is also tight (reverse repo usage near zero) and the upcoming U.S. jobs report is the binary event that could flip everything back to risk-off in a second.

I actually expect markets to display some choppiness this week, but I will hold my bias to the long side.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Sep 8, 2025

So far I’m seeing weak US jobs + markets pricing quicker Fed easing = lower real yields and carry, which should support equities, EM FX, and commodity-linked FX (AUD, NZD) in the near term. But, US CPI (Thu 11 Sep) is the binary event because if CPI surprises high, markets might move immediately to risk-off (USD bounce, JPY safe-haven, treasuries sell).

With month-end rebalancing flows approaching and major central bank meetings creating binary outcomes, it might be wise to reduce position sizes, favor defensive currencies like JPY and CHF, and avoid aggressive directional bets until clarity emerges. For the meanwhile I’ll set my bias to neutral long at least until the 17th September.

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Guys, this is a question about trading psychology, let’s see if you can help me out.
First of all, I’m writing it here because I don’t know if there’s a section or page to talk about these topics—if you could help me with that, I’d be really grateful.
And here’s my situation: I do trading and I have been profitable, but now I feel stuck because I’ve gone through personal situations that haven’t allowed me to trade or stay as connected to the charts. How have you managed to move forward from this kind of situation?
Thank you very much.

Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Sep 15, 2025

The primary catalyst this week will be the Federal Reserve's highly anticipated rate decision on Wednesday, where a 25 basis point cut to is all but confirmed. This dovish pivot, combined with the ECB holding rates steady at 2.0% and both the BoE and BoJ maintaining their respective policy rates, might drive USD weakness and volatility spikes. Trump's tariff threats on China and India for buying Russian oil add spice, potentially boosting safe-haven flows to the dollar/yen/swiss while hurting riskier pairs like AUDJPY. Money-wise, expect EoQ rebalancing and profit-taking by September 30, as funds lock in gains before Q4 volatility hits.

Although I am long term risk-on during these coming days and weeks, I will remain more neutral as I do expect increased volatility that could see bearish moves.

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Hello..
I see you have asked this elsewhere as well, no issue Here are some things that have helped me:

1. Use the forexfactory search - plenty of helpful resource


2. Discipline - Build into your working day, a discipline that you can repeat on a regular basis depending on your trading style. Write an internal contract with yourself that you will follow for at least 30 days. Around 30 days is the time they say it takes to build a habit.

Personally - Forex can be a brutal wake up call and at times it has forced me to take a break from the charts. In order to build the habit of coming back I just limit my size and just follow my rules - There were times that I failed, but as long as I continued to work on building that discipline and following my rules it help me with keeping up to date with charts.

Hope this helps

Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Sep 22, 2025

The Fed cut rates 25 bps mid-September but signalled a cautious pace of easing; markets are pricing more gradual cuts which has pushed longer-dated yields up while equity traders booked profits into month/quarter positioning. Both mildly firmer yields + profit-taking has kept the USD stronger, and you can see that DXY has reacted strongly from a technical support level. We’ll check this coming week's calendar for potential curveballs like PMIs but Friday's Core PCE release is the week's crown jewel for markets because along with key central bank speeches, any upside surprise could force markets to reprice Fed cut expectations.

So far it's looking mildly bullish for risk-on trades, but watch quarter-end flows pulling money into safe havens as I explained last week. For this reason mainly, I’ll be more defensive.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Sep 29, 2025

Markets ended the week pricing a doubled set of signals: a stronger-than-expected U.S. growth revision (Q2 GDP revised higher) that props up yields and the dollar, but a cautious Fed tone that keeps rate-cut hopes alive.

At the same time, Japan moved to calm its bond market (cutting planned super-long JGB issuance), and crypto endured a sharp deleveraging. Combine quarter-end profit-taking and large institutional rebalances with looming major events (US payrolls, RBI & RBA decisions) and you get a week where short-term USD strength and safe-haven jitters are the dominant trade, but with quick reversals possible if payrolls disappoint.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Oct 6, 2025

U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. This meant that we could see data volatility and empty calendar surprises. I took a couple of positions which were stopped out as the market just ranged through the week and ‘wicked’ me out of positions.

The week ahead looks cautiously risk-on, with US shutdown drama adding volatility, but steady yields and bullish tech setups suggest dips are buyable. The dollar still remains under pressure near-term while EUR and JPY as well as commodity-linked crosses like AUD/JPY push hold higher; crypto (BTC) may have found institutional squeeze higher reaching all time highs. I'll still be watching for end-Q3 rebalancing flows into safer assets, but I think there is still a tug of war between risk on and off.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Oct 13, 2025

Thankfully after taking two break even trades last week, I noticed that being long was not the trade. After switching bias, I was able to profit from GU shorts. After last week’s market pull back (or crash some would call it), it could be that we are due for a correction. Risk sentiment has been seen softening and we still have the US political shock as well as the geo-political tug of war. There’s long dated yields coming down, safe-haven flows into JGBs/Gold while we see risk assets like BTC diverging (big time).

We could be seeing the beginning of a DXY trend reversal, when looking over the quarter period, so we’ll need to look out for potential USD strength. For now, I’ll stay neutral until I have a clear sense of direction.



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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Oct 20, 2025

The US and China are in a high-stakes staredown (with China's rare earth export controls vs. Trump's threatened 100% tariffs), the Fed's about to cut rates again while the government's still shut down after two weeks, and gold just hit $4,300+ per ounce because everyone's nervous. Meanwhile, Bitcoin cratered 15% from its recent peak as traders ran for the exits. I think we will see another choppy week which could see DXY strengthen but might see equities move higher still.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Oct 27, 2025

We've got four major central banks making policy decisions, the Trump-Xi summit happening at APEC (which could either ease or explode trade tensions), and the US government shutdown hitting day 26, making reliable economic data rare.
I see markets entering this week in a cautious risk-on mood. A softer U.S. inflation report and hawkish central bank comments have set the stage as the Fed is widely expected to cut rates, which has nudged the dollar down and equity funds into inflows.

There's also month-end and quarter-end flows on October 31 to think about which adds another layer of complexity, where institutional portfolio rebalancing could trigger unexpected volatility as managers square their books for reporting.

All in all I think week boils down to a cautiously optimistic vibe for risk assets, but with the dollar flexing its muscles amid Fed uncertainty.

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Forex Outlook: Week Beginning Nov 3, 2025

This week's outlook is shaped by a strengthening US Dollar and a prevailing "risk-off" sentiment. I was looking for risk-on as it looked like evidence pointed to a weakening dollar, but it seems the DXY (US Dollar Index) was better positioned for a potential bullish breakout above a key technical resistance level I showed last week . At the same time, risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin show bearish technical signals . This setup suggests a market environment favouring the US dollar, driven by its safe-haven status and expectations of sustained higher US interest rates which could see investors looking for higher bond yields (expressed in a stronger dollar). The coming week's US economic data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will be critical in either confirming or challenging this narrative. However we still do have the US government shutdown blocking official reports, so private news could cause stronger than expected market reactions.

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