Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

US 500 forecast: index hits new all-time high and begins correction

The US 500 index approached the 6,500.0 level, and with each new all-time high, the likelihood of a downward correction increases. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US NFP for July came in at 73 thousand
2. Market impact: slower employment growth and a high unemployment rate create uncertainty, which may trigger volatility and investor caution

Fundamental analysis

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure came in at 73 thousand, significantly below the expected 106 thousand, although still above the revised previous value of 14 thousand. This reflects a slowdown in job growth and worsening hiring dynamics. The three-month average job growth is just around 35 thousand, marking the weakest level since the onset of the 2020 pandemic. This suggests a notable cooling in the labour market and could signal a broader economic slowdown.

This serves as a negative signal for the US 500 index, since weak labour data often correlates with slowing economic activity and declining corporate earnings. The technology sector may come under pressure, as company growth depends heavily on a strong economy and robust consumer demand.

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Bullish correction in GBPUSD slows near resistance at 1.3350

Investors remain cautiously optimistic about GBPUSD amid a weakening US dollar, with the price currently at 1.3306. Discover more in our analysis for 6 August 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The US ISM services PMI fell to 50.1 in July
2. The ISM report indicates almost complete stagnation in the services sector
3. GBPUSD forecast for 6 August 2025: 1.3090

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate has been strengthening for the fourth consecutive session, forming a moderate bullish correction. However, the price remains below the key resistance level at 1.3350.

The US dollar remains under pressure following the unexpected drop in the ISM services PMI to 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June. The market consensus had expected an increase to 51.5. The release suggests a near standstill in services sector growth, highlighting the negative impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index set to reach a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has completed its correction and resumed upward movement. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s current account for June stood at 3.436 trillion JPY
2. Market impact: this indicates a healthy economic structure and currency balance support, which generally boosts investor confidence

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s latest current account data showed a surplus of 3.436 trillion JPY, well above the forecast of 2.940 trillion JPY and the previous figure of 2.258 trillion JPY. The growth in the current account indicates that Japan exports significantly more goods and services than it imports, or receives substantial income from overseas investments.

The JP 225 index, which includes the largest and most liquid stocks on the Japanese market, typically reacts positively to improving macroeconomic indicators. A growing current account reflects external stability, which increases investor risk appetite and supports stock growth, especially in stable and fast-growing sectors of the economy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USDJPY remains in a narrow range for five consecutive sessions

The USDJPY rate remains in a narrow range amid disagreements within the BoJ over the timing of future rate hikes. The current quote is 147.33. Find out more in our analysis for 8 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. BoJ members are split over the timing and pace of future rate hikes
2. BoJ raised its inflation outlook and improved its economic forecast
3. Growth in household spending in Japan slowed sharply in June
4. USDJPY forecast for 8 August 2025: 150.50

Fundamental analysis

Today, the USDJPY rate is rising slightly, while remaining within the range that has held for five consecutive trading sessions. Buyers continue to defend the key 146.65 support level. The US dollar is strengthening after the release of the BoJ’s July meeting minutes, which revealed that board members are divided on the timing and pace of future rate hikes.

The central bank kept its interest rate at 0.5%, raised its inflation forecast, and presented a more optimistic assessment of the economic outlook. Some BoJ officials warned of rising inflationary pressures and supported a gradual rate hike to avoid abrupt tightening. Others argued for maintaining the current accommodative stance, citing significant uncertainty over whether economic forecasts will materialise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index has formed a downtrend, but it is likely to be short-term

The DE 40 stock index continues to correct after an uptrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s balance of trade for June 2025 totalled 14.9 billion EUR
2. Market impact: a decline in the trade balance compared to forecasts and previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity, which will negatively affect the shares of exporting companies

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s trade balance for June 2025 came in at 14.9 billion EUR, below the forecast of 17.8 billion EUR and the previous reading of 18.6 billion EUR. The trade balance is the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period. A positive figure indicates that Germany exported more goods than it imported. A drop in the trade balance compared to both the forecast and the previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity. This may indicate weak external demand for German goods, which is a negative factor for the German economy and its large export-oriented companies.

The DE 40 index, which consists of the largest German companies, will come under pressure due to the worsening trade balance. Since most of the index companies operate in export-driven industries such as automotive, engineering, and chemical, a decline in exports will hurt their financial performance and negatively affect their share prices.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: quotes approach resistance, but the downtrend continues

The US 500 index remains in a downtrend, which is unlikely to be long-term. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in July
2. Market impact: for the US stock market, such data has a mixed effect

Fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is a key indicator of the service sector, which accounts for more than 70% of US GDP. The July 2025 reading of 50.1 shows that the economy in the service segment continues to grow, but very weakly, and is almost on the verge of stagnation. The figure came in below the forecast of 51.5 and barely changed from the previous 50.8, indicating a lack of strong growth drivers and possibly declining business confidence in the industry.

For the US stock market, such data has a mixed impact. On one hand, weak service sector figures cool expectations for corporate earnings growth in consumer-facing industries and raise concerns about the sustainability of domestic demand. This could put negative pressure on the broad US 500 index, especially in cyclical sectors that depend on economic activity.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY falls below 148.00

The USDJPY pair is declining, moving below 148.00 following the release of US inflation data. Find more details in our analysis for 13 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in line with forecasts
2. Current trend: moving downwards
3. USDJPY forecast for 13 August 2025: 148.50 or 147.00

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen strengthened after the release of US consumer inflation data, which matched forecasts, rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. This boosted market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month.

In Japan, business sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in August following a trade deal with Washington. The agreement reduced US tariffs on cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a Japanese investment package worth 550 billion USD.

Bank of Japan board members remain divided over the timing and pace of future rate hikes. While some policymakers favour maintaining the current accommodative policy for now, they also pointed to uncertainty over whether current economic forecasts will materialise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index has formed an upward channel and targets a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index hit a new all-time high and continued its upward trajectory. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s current account for July totalled 1.348 trillion JPY
2. Market impact: overall reaction for the broad equity market is neutral to restrained

Fundamental analysis

While the current account remains in surplus, it is significantly lower than both the consensus and the previous reading. The decline signals less favourable external conditions and higher import costs, which may limit corporate profit margins. At the same time, a likely soft yen partially offsets the effect by supporting exporters. As a result, the balance of factors for the index is mixed: there may be heightened sensitivity to news about global demand and energy prices.

For the JP 225, this means a mixed backdrop: export-oriented industries benefit from a weaker yen in the short term, while energy-intensive and import-dependent segments face shrinking margins. The index’s further trajectory will depend on global trade trends, energy price dynamics, yen movements, and the Bank of Japan’s assessment of the balance between policy normalisation and support for economic growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Trump pressures, inflation rises: how Powell will determine the fate of EURUSD

The euro continues to strengthen ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with the EURUSD rate likely to climb further to 1.1800. Find more details in our analysis for 18 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The euro continues to strengthen
2. Financial markets await the Jackson Hole Symposium
3. EURUSD forecast for 18 August 2025: 1.1800

Fundamental analysis

The euro is holding steady around 1.1700 as markets remain wary of geopolitical developments. The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to feature a speech by Jerome Powell, which could shed light on the Federal Reserve’s future actions. Powell is caught between calls for rate cuts (particularly from Trump) and the risks of rising inflation. His ability to maintain the Fed’s independence by relying on data rather than political pressure is crucial.

Following strong US fundamentals (growth in wholesale prices and retail sales), markets adjusted expectations for a significant September rate cut. This has provided the euro with additional stability against the dollar, fuelling further EURUSD gains.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: prices approached resistance but failed to break through and reach a new all-time high

The US 500 remains in an uptrend, which is highly likely to become medium-term. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 0.9% in July
2. Market impact: rising producer costs have a negative effect on the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US PPI for July rose by 0.9% from the previous month, well above the forecast of 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.0%. PPI growth is a significant signal, as it reflects higher producer costs, which may be passed on to the end consumer. Overall, this strengthens inflationary pressure and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more hawkish stance in monetary policy.

Higher financing rates, in turn, can negatively affect the equity market by making stocks less attractive than bonds and increasing borrowing costs for businesses. For the US 500 index, the effect of such data is likely to be restrictive. Stronger inflation expectations could trigger a correction in the index, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) falls ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium

Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to decline, moving towards 3,317 USD. Demand for safe-haven assets has weakened significantly. Find more details are in our analysis for 20 August 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) is edging down, preparing to reach a new three-week low
2. Easing geopolitical tensions and a surging USD have drawn part of market interest away from gold
3. XAUUSD forecast for 20 August 2025: 3,311 and 3,265

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, gold (XAUUSD) prices fell to 3,317 USD per troy ounce, nearing their three-week low. Pressure on the metal came from expectations of easing geopolitical tensions and a stronger US dollar.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump stated that he does not plan to send ground troops but admitted the possibility of air support as part of efforts to resolve the conflict with Russia. Investors now focus on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. Additional market cues may also come from the FOMC minutes due later on Wednesday.

Rate futures indicate the likelihood of two Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, with the first possibly coming in September.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: index continues to rise within an ascending channel, correcting after reaching a new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index hit a new all-time high and started a correction. Today’s JP 225 forecast is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s Q2 2025 GDP grew by 0.3%
2. Market impact: this is a positive signal for the stock market, as growth exceeded expectations

Fundamental analysis

Data shown on the chart indicates that Japan’s quarterly GDP growth was 0.3%, above the forecast of 0.1% and the previous figure of 0.1%. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth signals more resilient economic activity in the country. This suggests increased domestic demand, exports, or investments, which creates a positive backdrop for corporate profits and, consequently, the stock market. Stronger macroeconomic data may also reduce recession concerns, reinforcing investor confidence.

For the JP225 index, this positive GDP surprise could contribute to further price growth. The strengthening of sustainable economic growth expectations increases the likelihood of stock market gains. However, investors may also consider potential risks of Bank of Japan’s monetary tightening if the positive momentum proves persistent.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US Tech forecast: the index continues to rise, but correction risks grow

The uptrend in the US Tech stock index has shifted into a downward correction. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.

US Tech forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US manufacturing PMI preliminarily came in at 53.3 in August
2. Market impact: this data strengthens expectations for overall economic momentum, which may be viewed positively by equity investors

Fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI reached 53.3 points in August 2025, significantly above the forecast of 49.7 and the previous reading of 49.8. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity. This result signals that the industrial sector is in a growth phase with increasing demand for goods.

Although PMI directly relates to industrial production, its positive reading indirectly impacts the high-tech sector. Rising manufacturing activity requires more automation, digitalisation of processes, and the use of advanced technologies. This boosts demand for semiconductor products, cloud services, software, and industrial robotics. As a result, the tech-heavy index may find additional support.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD poised for breakout: thanks to Powell and rate-cut expectations

The EURUSD pair reached July highs near 1.1721, with market sentiment clearly risk-on. Find out more in our analysis for 25 August 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair accelerated its rally after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
2. Markets now expect Fed monetary easing with more enthusiasm than before
3. EURUSD forecast for 25 August 2025: 1.1800

Fundamental analysis

At the start of the last week of August, the US dollar came under pressure, while the euro strengthened. The EURUSD pair climbed to 1.1728, marking its highest level since late July.

Following Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, markets sharply revised their Fed rate expectations. The probability of a September cut now stands at 85%, compared with significantly lower odds earlier. By the end of the year, investors are pricing in 54 basis points of easing, up from 48 basis points a week ago.

Investors remain focused on the labour market, which, according to Powell, is showing an unusual balance, with both demand for and supply of workers slowing. Employment will serve as the key indicator for future Fed decisions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: after rebounding from support, the index aims to hit its new all-time high

The US 500 remains in an uptrend, with quotes poised to break above the resistance level. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US initial jobless claims came in at 235 thousand last week
2. Market impact: this has a dual effect on the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

US initial jobless claims stood at 235 thousand last week, above the forecast of 226 thousand and the previous reading of 224 thousand. The rise in claims indicates some weakening of the labour market. Higher applications may signal a slowdown in economic activity.

Signs of labour market cooling can ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further, supporting expectations of stable or even lower interest rates. For the US 500, this data may trigger a mixed reaction in the short term. The technology and growth sectors may benefit, as they gain from prospects of looser monetary policy, while consumer-focused sectors may come under pressure due to expectations of weaker purchasing power.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD under pressure: market full of doubts

The GBPUSD pair retreated to 1.3461 midweek. Market focus is on Fed independence concerns and the Bank of England’s strategy. Discover more in our analysis for 27 August 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The GBPUSD pair corrected after its rally in early August as doubts over US monetary policy resurfaced
2. The market is watching the foundations for potential BoE rate decisions
3. GBPUSD forecast for 27 August 2025: 1.3432

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, the GBPUSD rate fell to 1.3461. Pressure on US short-term yields and threats to Fed independence created a negative backdrop for the US dollar, supporting the outlook for its weakening over the coming year.

The decisive risk factor will be who Donald Trump nominates to replace the vacant Fed Governor seat, which will determine the extent of political influence over monetary policy.

Investors are also closely watching developments in France, where the minority government faces a possible dismissal next month.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the uptrend continues, but a short-term correction is possible

The JP 225 index hit a new all-time high and then entered a correction. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s core inflation rate for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year
2. Market impact: market reaction may range from neutral to moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s national core CPI came in at 3.1% year-on-year, compared to a forecast of 3.0% and the previous reading of 3.3%. The indicator shows that inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target, although it continues to ease from earlier levels. While risks of persistent inflation remain, the pressure is gradually declining.

For the JP 225, this reading may have a mixed effect. On one hand, slower inflation versus the previous month reduces the risk of abrupt monetary tightening and supports risk appetite. On the other hand, a reading above forecast keeps alive the possibility of rate hikes, limiting equity revaluation. Overall, the effect for the JP 225 is neutral to moderately negative in the short term, as expectations for higher rates and bond yields increase.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD poised to surge: Aussie challenges the dollar amid Fed turmoil

With the USD weakening, the AUDUSD pair may continue its upward trajectory towards 0.6580. Discover more in our analysis for 29 August 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The AUD continues to strengthen against the USD
2. The Australian PMI and retail sales support the Aussie
3. AUDUSD forecast for 29 August 2025: 0.6580

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favors the Australian dollar, which continues to recover against the USD, with the pair currently trading near 0.6530. The weakness in the USD is driven by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and political risks surrounding the US central bank. This has created a favorable backdrop for the Aussie’s growth and boosted the chances of a continued uptrend.

Australian macroeconomic data also keeps the AUD supported. Inflation accelerated to 2.8% in July, lowering the likelihood of an RBA rate cut. Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar strengthened before entering a correction. The AUDUSD outlook also considers the positive impact of PMI and retail sales data, which sustain domestic optimism and reinforce AUD’s gains against the USD.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index enters a downtrend within the correction phase

The growth momentum of the DE 40 index has slowed. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s unemployment rate for July 2025 stood at 6.3%
2. Market impact: this supports consumer stocks

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s unemployment rate for August 2025 came in at 6.3%, in line with both forecasts and the previous reading. The stability of the indicator confirms that the German labour market remains resilient despite internal and external economic challenges. For the German stock market, this stability is highly significant. A steady unemployment rate points to sustained household demand, which underpins domestic consumption.

For the DE 40, the impact of this figure varies by sector. The financial sector reacts positively to labour market stability as it reduces credit risks. Industrial companies and exporters benefit indirectly since steady domestic demand can offset fluctuations in external markets. The consumer sector also stands to gain as stable employment supports household solvency and drives demand for goods and services.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: after rebounding from support, the index aims to renew its all-time high

The US 500 once again hit a new all-time high within the ongoing uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: The US core PCE price index came in at 2.9% in July
2. Market impact: for the US stock market, this has a mixed effect in the medium term

Fundamental analysis

The latest figures for the core PCE price index in the US show a yearly increase of 2.9%, in line with forecasts and slightly above the previous 2.8%. This index excludes food and energy components and serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge when assessing inflation risks and shaping monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the cash allocation of US mutual funds has dropped to a record low of 1.4%, below the 1.5% level seen before the 2022 bear market. After a short-lived rise in April, fund cash positions resumed their more than three-year downtrend. For context, between 2008 and 2020, the average cash share was roughly twice as high. With funds almost fully invested and lacking significant reserves to buy on potential pullbacks, the market remains vulnerable if sudden volatility spikes occur.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team