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EURUSD only

  • #213,801
  • Aug 26, 2025 1:21am Aug 26, 2025 1:21am
Quoting Jeks
Hello everyone! For the EURUSD pair, the resistance level of 1.1720 turned out to be quite strong, holding the price back from further upward movement after several attempts to break through it. Now, according to my calculations, the resistance level holding back growth may be the level of 1.1639, near which the price is currently located. Therefore, I will watch the price reaction to this level, where in the case of a rebound from it downwards, the first target for sales may be the support level of 1.1589, in the case of its breakthrough, the second...
I see this channel for my positions, but I am not blind or deaf to the knowledge and experience of others.
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  • #213,802
  • Aug 26, 2025 1:30am Aug 26, 2025 1:30am
This is what i am looking at and waiting for a cut back into the downward channel
Still maintain we are Visiting friends at 1.15200 ish
Market is dominantly Bearish in my opinion
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Waiting for trades is OK. Most People spend their life waiting for nothing!
  • #213,803
  • Aug 26, 2025 1:34am Aug 26, 2025 1:34am
Quoting qefeqfqfq3fg
{quote} +13 Pips only, Reverse Position. Edit: Sorry to keep changing Bias, but there are too many key levels as of right now and all are being respected. My 2 cents is that the spike up encountered resistance at a 30-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG), causing price to retrace. Currently, EUR/USD is moving toward a 30-minute bearish Order Block (OB), which could act as a target for the pullback and suggest a potential continuation of downward movement. I will be taking this Sell Order to a TP of 1.16169 and a SL of 1.16526 given that the 30m OB is respected....
TP Hit, +31.4 Pips, Not Bad for the day. So far I'm up +151.1 Pips this week.
  • #213,804
  • Aug 26, 2025 1:36am Aug 26, 2025 1:36am
Quoting DeJaBlue
This is what i am looking at and waiting for a cut back into the downward channel Still maintain we are Visiting friends at 1.15200 ish Market is dominantly Bearish in my opinion {image}
I see things in the same direction. Preparing for short between 1.163x - 1.164x. Probably after opening London session.
Songo
  • #213,805
  • Aug 26, 2025 2:17am Aug 26, 2025 2:17am
Just gonna put it out there. We could be seeing a broadening wedge.

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The EU took out the tops from August 13th and August 15th after breaking the lows of August 11th, but wasn´t able to break above the July highs. Nevertheless everybody expected a continuation on the upside. I believe that we might take out the lows from last Friday and then we´ll see, where we go from there.

Looking at the overall picture and Dow Trend Theory, we are currently in neutral territory.

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On the day chart we had an uptrend (green) which was broken, when the downward move broke below the 1.1450 area. We do not have a down trend as for that we need a second low below 1.1390. In my books it currently is a 3 leg correction. So uptrend broken, downtrend not established.

Now let´s zoom into the 4h chart

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We have seen a nice uptrend from the 1.1390 area (green arrows) up to 1.1730. The following down trend would have been fine, if it would have stayed above 1.1590 (first yellow circle), but with that break below the uptrend ended and we had an established down trend, which would have needed to stay below 1.1675 (second yellow circle). That was taken out by the reactions to the Powell speech on Friday. So uptrend done, downtrend done.


So currently we are in completely neutral territory. I visualized on the right hand side, what an established up or down trend looks like.

If you see something like this, ideally at some point you see a trend acceleration as mentioned yesterday. This is how a bull or bear flag can establish into something else entirely and then the market can move very fast.

If the Powell speech would have been different, we could have seen this acceleration to the down side last Friday.

Bottom line. We are in neutral territory. One could argue, we have an established short trend on the 30 minutes, but that would only be the first leg down of a potential trend on the higher time frame. To make the chaos complete, it would make total sense to take out the lows from Friday and then move back higher but staying below yesterdays high (to complete the broadening wedge). There is a good chance we will stay in that zone until the next NFP.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #213,806
  • Aug 26, 2025 2:25am Aug 26, 2025 2:25am
Two examples of potential flags not materializing and trend accelerates (yesterday and this morning)

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  • #213,807
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:18am Aug 26, 2025 3:18am
Ill break the ice
Short @ 1.16205
I maintain there is no bullish momentum Bears are just waiting for opportunities.
SL 1.16365 recon this is the pivot.
See how it goes
Waiting for trades is OK. Most People spend their life waiting for nothing!
  • #213,808
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:23am Aug 26, 2025 3:23am
I've been SHORT since 1.1644, and I hope the price will respect the 1.1625 level and the bulls won't overshoot, even though they're trying very hard.
A series of lower lows will continue, and we will break 1.1600 eventually
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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #213,809
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:28am Aug 26, 2025 3:28am
Quoting halkins
I've been SHORT since 1.1644, and I hope the price will respect the 1.1625 level and the bulls won't overshoot, even though they're trying very hard. A series of lower lows will continue, and we will break 1.1600 eventually {image}
I agree. I have been short since 1.1658 and added at 1.1720, looking for 1.1450 target.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #213,810
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:33am Aug 26, 2025 3:33am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I agree. I have been short since 1.1658 and added at 1.1720, looking for 1.1450 target.
But the BEARS are struggling now at 1.1600, which makes me a little worried.
Each time they try to sell, BULLS are buying back aggressively at 1.1600
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #213,811
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:36am Aug 26, 2025 3:36am
Quoting halkins
{quote} But the BEARS are struggling now at 1.1600, which makes me a little worried. Each time they try to sell, BULLS are buying back aggressively at 1.1600
Yes. There is this obsession with EU going to 1.20 right away... I see it going down to the 1.12 area before it breaks to new highs.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #213,812
  • Edited 3:55am Aug 26, 2025 3:43am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting halkins
{quote} But the BEARS are struggling now at 1.1600, which makes me a little worried. Each time they try to sell, BULLS are buying back aggressively at 1.1600
agree, something seems a bit off. No continuation yet. waiting for me it is!

EDIT: Short at 1.1616 SL 1.1643
This information is not intended as investment advice
  • #213,813
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:59am Aug 26, 2025 3:59am
Quoting Terges
{quote} agree, something seems a bit off. No continuation yet. waiting for me it is! EDIT: Short at 1.1616 SL 1.1643
Waiting for trades is OK. Most People spend their life waiting for nothing!
  • #213,814
  • Aug 26, 2025 3:59am Aug 26, 2025 3:59am
Meanwhile, on H1...

No loss and no significant gain from yesterday's long entry... Is well.. Now I am on sidelines and waiting for progress...

Bulls need a breakout above 1.1647... at least a climb into the previous flag channel, which hasn't happened yet!

Bears can keep their short orders open for now and watch if candles are willing to close below 1.1597 or not...
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #213,815
  • Aug 26, 2025 4:05am Aug 26, 2025 4:05am
EU playing out to my London open strategy.
to learn more about the strategy market open price then retest on market open price during London open.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ction-strategy?
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first-boss SELL HIGH BUY LOW!!!
  • #213,816
  • Aug 26, 2025 4:06am Aug 26, 2025 4:06am
Made a bit from that asian session move, got in right before the big spike up, I closed that out at +30pips gave almost all of that back to the markets trying to trade the chop. right now im waiting for a retrace to 1.16347 then ill short till 1.15660+ area
  • #213,817
  • Aug 26, 2025 4:09am Aug 26, 2025 4:09am
Quoting halkins
I've been SHORT since 1.1644, and I hope the price will respect the 1.1625 level and the bulls won't overshoot, even though they're trying very hard. A series of lower lows will continue, and we will break 1.1600 eventually {image}
CANCELLED - LH broken
Unfortunately, at the moment, BEARs lost the battle on 1.1600
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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #213,818
  • Aug 26, 2025 4:18am Aug 26, 2025 4:18am
Closed manually -10 pips
Waiting for trades is OK. Most People spend their life waiting for nothing!
  • #213,819
  • Aug 26, 2025 4:21am Aug 26, 2025 4:21am
I took long at 1.1622 and BE now
  • #213,820
  • Aug 26, 2025 4:33am Aug 26, 2025 4:33am
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