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Trend Follower 5 Minute System

  • #141
  • Aug 13, 2007 4:47pm Aug 13, 2007 4:47pm
Signaltrendfollower gave me a short alert on Euro/Usd at 8.15pm GMT+1
Geoff
  • #142
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:05pm Aug 13, 2007 10:05pm
I just received three alerts about 10pm cdt. NzdUsd, AudUsd,NxdJpy and EurAud. But all are way inside the slopeline so are no good to me. ......
  • #143
  • Aug 13, 2007 11:07pm Aug 13, 2007 11:07pm
While we are waiting for the markets to cooperate, what is the correct way to pronounce lageurre? well my alerts going off as i type let me see here......4 alerts. nzdjpy, ma's crossed but inside slope.nzdusd, same thing, usdjpy macd crossed. audjpy macd crossed. And now the audusd, inside slopeline and laguerre however it is pronounced, is still above .75...........
la gary? La gair? Lagger? And why does it have this name anyway?.......by the way it is about 11pm here when these alerts are sounding. I am gmt -6 So its 5am in london..............JimDandy.

There are three kinds of people. Those who can count and those who can't.
  • #144
  • Aug 14, 2007 2:10am Aug 14, 2007 2:10am
Hi Guys

I must have missed the slope/entry relationship - what do you need - only to enter short if the close is above the slope line (to get a good entry) or of it is below as another confirmation - let me know and I'll put it into the EA (obviously and vice-versa for a long entry)

Do you want this in realtime signal or (as present) if the close of the previous bar meets this criteria?

Cheers

Paul
  • #145
  • Aug 14, 2007 2:20am Aug 14, 2007 2:20am
Quoting pmurfin
Hi Guys

I must have missed the slope/entry relationship - what do you need - only to enter short if the close is above the slope line (to get a good entry) or of it is below as another confirmation - let me know and I'll put it into the EA (obviously and vice-versa for a long entry)

Do you want this in realtime signal or (as present) if the close of the previous bar meets this criteria?

Cheers

Paul
Hi Paul,

Can you put this in a realtime indicator (with green and red arrows) instead of an ea. I think this would be more helpful to most of us.

Thanks,
Wim
  • #146
  • Aug 14, 2007 2:33am Aug 14, 2007 2:33am
To the best of my knowledge The Wicker said the slope was not a rule of
the system but something to watch out for at exits etc. However if the price is below slope when looking to short and above when looking to go long I guess it is extra confirmation although I think quite a few valid trades would be missed.
Geoff
  • #147
  • Aug 14, 2007 2:36am Aug 14, 2007 2:36am
Quoting GEOFFREY62
To the best of my knowledge The Wicker said the slope was not a rule of
the system but something to watch out for at exits etc. However if the price is below slope when looking to short and above when looking to go long I guess it is extra confirmation although I think quite a few valid trades would be missed.
Geoff
I agree Geoff, it is not a rule. The more rules you add, the less opportunites the system will generate.
  • #148
  • Aug 14, 2007 2:46am Aug 14, 2007 2:46am
Hi Jim Dandy
If I remember correctly 5am london time is outside of the trading hours for this system. In the Wickers rules times are open of european to close of US,
perhaps this is why you are getting lots of signals but none of which are valid.
Kind regards
Geoff
  • #149
  • Aug 14, 2007 3:01am Aug 14, 2007 3:01am
Guys

What a difficult bunch to please ! LOL!

Ok I'll put an option in to say whether you want the slope as part of YOUR signal - then everybody can use it as desired ... and for Wim I'll add some nice arrows to mark the entries on the chart ... might take me a day or so watch this space ...

Paul


p.s. 5mins is a bit of a short timeframe for me this is working very well on 30 min charts for me
  • #150
  • Aug 14, 2007 3:31am Aug 14, 2007 3:31am
Thanks Paul for your efforts.

Wim
  • #151
  • Aug 14, 2007 4:00am Aug 14, 2007 4:00am
Guys

Exactly what logic do you want ...

slope +ve close above slope signal LONG
slope +ve close below slope signal FLAT
slope -ve close below slope signal SHORT
slope -ve close above slope signal FLAT

will that surffice>

Paul
  • #152
  • Aug 14, 2007 4:03am Aug 14, 2007 4:03am
Hi Paul,

You souldn't take the slope into account. Already rules enough.
The slope isn't an entry rule by the original developer. It's an exit rule.
  • #153
  • Aug 14, 2007 4:23am Aug 14, 2007 4:23am
I tend to agree. Other views ????

BTW I'm running an auto-trader based on this now ... I'll report back how it is doing in due course - as always with programming such things the exit is the tricky thing to do ... right now I have two simple exit strategies 1) a hard stop loss of 30 pips plus the spread and 2) when the slope changes direction. If the slope is going the wrong way on entry it does not use it an an exit until it does go the right way and then flips back again against the trade. The entry checks the spread is no more than 1.5 times the usual spread - this stops any trading during news when the spread opens too much ...

For exits, I'm going to look at including the pivots/support/resistance in due course and possibly an ATR trailing exit
Paul
  • #154
  • Aug 14, 2007 4:48am Aug 14, 2007 4:48am
Hi to all, (my first post at ForexFactory)
First let me say how much I am enjoying playing with this system, so many thanks to TheWicker for sharing.

SLOPE
I don't like to go if the slope is wrong side of the price, but the author said this was optional so it would be nice if pmurfin were to do as he said and make it and option. As I understand it the direction of the slope does not matter when entering trades so long as the rest of the criteria say go but some of us dont want to go unless the the current value of the slope is <= to the price for long trades and vice versa.

PIVOT POINTS
I find all the pivot points and support/resistance lines very confusing. Can't seem to work out what they all are? some have D/W/M prefixes so I guess these are daily, weekly, monthly but the colours don't match? and some don't have a prefix but appear to match the daily pivots I calculate independantly???

SUNDAY DATA
On my chart (I'm UK based) about an hour of sunday data is showing and and it looks like this is being used to calculate daily pivots for monday. Anyone else noticed this?

Ed
  • #155
  • Aug 14, 2007 4:59am Aug 14, 2007 4:59am
Hi Ed

it's interesting previously to this I was playing with my own Moving Average based system - it got great entries becase I did what was counter intuitive ... to go short the price had to be ABOVE my short term moving average with the overall trend - as I defined - SHORT. This picked the retracements very nicely indeed and would save many many points ... when only taking trades on the correct side of the slope you can be in danger of taking trades too far away (e.g after a long bar) ... maybe we should take trades in the "vicinity" of the slop line ... well just food for thought!

  • #156
  • Aug 14, 2007 5:14am Aug 14, 2007 5:14am
Hi Paul,

Many many thanks by the way for all your efforts. (meant to mention that in my first post).

Yes vicinity may be better. The main thing for me is that I'm not comfortable taking a trade if the slope is too far the wrong side of the price. But exactly how far is too far? I don't know.

Ed
  • #157
  • Aug 14, 2007 6:14am Aug 14, 2007 6:14am
A good example is happening right now (at time of posting) I've just let a short trade signal pass on eur/usd because the slope was well below price.

Let's see how it works out.... ;o)

Ed.
  • #158
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:22am Aug 14, 2007 7:22am
The last sentence shows that wicker says its a general rule, not a rule of the system. Actually yesterday i had a good short signal and the slope was not below the price and I took the short trade and it worked out well. Just have to use discretion i guess.

Right now we got a GBP/USD short signal and price is below the slope lets see how it plays out. I believe though that a stronger signal happens when the price is in accordance with the slope.

Quoting TheWicker
It's not a valid Trend Follower trade. If we were to trade all the signals regardless of the positions of green and red lines of the guppy, you would get busted. Yes you would get profitable trades, yes you would get losing trades! But all comes down to eliminating more false signals and trade only those high probability trades. The more trading that you do, the more spread you will have to pay!!! That means if you only opened 5 trades a day, you will already be about -20 pips for that day, regardless of the result of the trade. We are looking for high probability trades! Guppy is a very important factor of the system so one must follow it. The trade was profitable indeed, but it was a breakout trade, we don't trade these for the reasons stated above. We do catch trades +100 pips with trend follower, it happened before and it will happen in the future. Usually those are on gbp/usd, but to catch such a big move, it must move at least about 150 pips. It doesn't happen every day, so we just have to be patient.

To sypultraz: I haven't even noticed it. It is true that the price should be below the slopeline indeed. It is not a rule for the system, but more a general rule. If you see this again be careful on taking the trade.
  • #159
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:35am Aug 14, 2007 7:35am
GBP/USD short worked out well and didn't take slope into consideration so it should not be included as a rule of the system just a general rule so I would not include it in the EA Paul.

Thanks
  • #160
  • Aug 14, 2007 7:43am Aug 14, 2007 7:43am
Hi Guys
Very interesting stuff on the thread at moment but something we shoul be aware of is different trading platforms give different signals. At the moment
the short on gbp which Jay mentioned on my platform(ALPARIUK) the price
was way above slope line when signal occured. Apart from that am having
great fun with the system
Geoff
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