Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

I'm going to use this pic to discuss a concept that is a main entry setup. It would have resulted in two possible longs on this move. One abt 50 ticks, the other abt 30. +80 or so ticks minus 4 to 6 ticks in fees and commish. Micros will squeeze you a bit.

Mt 23:12

Whoever exalts himself will be humbled; but whoever humbles himself will be exalted.


I think this is appropriate. I mentioned almost from the start that this was to keep me honest. Trading and all it entails can be an egotistical soul crushing endeavor.

As you watch price, its momentum or speed or lack thereof are important to take notice of. When the market is moving in certain cyclical ways you can at times "predict" areas where price may show a change in that momentum. Even if not sure where price may land the framework gives you some definite possibilities. Combine this with the fact that most of this instrument's moves are between the 55 fib envelopes. Here, as the text says, you should realize sooner than later this is the end of the last down move.

Many think you can't trade at this level. With the Chill Index it is no problem. From the time when price tagged the green to crossing to the buy side of the red was abt 4 minutes.

The crossing of the red is not an entry. A PA pattern is what you need to look for now. That pattern is price moving in the direction of the cross, getting some space, then pulling back. The first is easy. The second and third are arbitrary.

As I progressed, one of the things that remained constant has been the Gold cross then the pullback was added. At this stage this concept can be used with some Red crosses.

I know one thing, all these people who buy/sell and hold to prove their analysis was right are wasting time and money. That is some kind of investing and could be put to better use in that category.

Trading. Speculation. Get your bag and stash it. That is trading.

Will pick up with space and pullback after some zzzzzzzzzz.

Ps 128:1

Blessed are all who fear the LORD,
and who walk in his ways.

So, price bounces along the green for a bit until the red comes down into play. And this is what trading is if you have most any type of methodology at all. It becomes a hurry up and wait process.

This area is what I call equilibrium for obvious reasons. It is a "mathematical" balance area where the value of price and the MAs, which are derivatives of price come together. This point was an entry point when I was learning the Paradox system in a more original form. Yes, this is why I trade this way because my best received instruction was in an environment similar to this.

After the cross, the expectation is for price at some point to move in the direction of the cross - buy/sell side. Here we can make a good guess where potential "resistance" may come into play. In this case the gold around the 21-fib level would be a good guess.

This is the "Space" move. Price will make an obvious separation from the area where it was. This is a combination of vertical, up/down, and horizontal, linear time, movement by price.

Yeah, after all that, we have our cross, initial move to create space, and are waiting for a pullback.

The area in the oval is the cross point. Here price moved "sideways" to create the cross. The other type of cross would be a more vertical slice right through.

That point has an interesting value as a potential entry area in a pullback. Does not work every time. It is quite cool when it does. ... PA

Every time a lefty has a brain aneurysm this song pops into my head

And there it is. The pullback. This one came back to a balance point. Entry would be as it pulls away.




The phenomenon.

On this entry I am discussing and on the previous short entry are examples of where price makes a basically sideways move to cross the red. Extend a line, put a limit order, and most times this works.

And that brings us back to where I start.

(A) Price hits green and stalls.

(B) Price moves sideways to cross the Red. As it makes separation to create some space this would be a time to place that limit order. PA conditions.

(C) There is the pullback. This one worked. From here you need to manage your own trade.

(D) What do ya know. This is the pullback of the Gold cross.

(E) Nice target.

booyah ... disabled private messaging

Rough unedited playback video showing this system in motion.

Made a slight tweak.
40-period hma, that uses a mean of 8 as the base. The mean is simply the high + low of period / 2.

I call it the Waldo-Mean. Goes with the theme of "Where's Waldo".

Everything is based on the concept of irregular cycles at the lowest level of price movement. This is visualized on a range chart. I have chosen to look at price in blocks of three ticks. This is all based on last price. Most would know this as close price. It is the price of the last transaction.

There is NOTHING else involved. No time element to distort price action.

From there I built a system around what I was seeing.

First almost 19 seconds from 10:00 ET Friday.