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  • #212,761
  • Aug 11, 2025 2:38pm Aug 11, 2025 2:38pm
H1
The 2 Andrews' forks indicate a bullish direction, and the purple support/resistance line confirms this. I would only expect a downward trend if the price breaks out of the pitchforks and breaks through the purple sup/res line.
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  • #212,762
  • Aug 11, 2025 6:18pm Aug 11, 2025 6:18pm
EURUSD's decline faded slightly below the middle band. Today, we await the release of US CPI data, which could impact USD price volatility.
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I trade at FXOpen
  • #212,763
  • Aug 11, 2025 6:59pm Aug 11, 2025 6:59pm

  1. CORE CPI US M/M

DATA ANALYSIS BY MONTH
AUG 12, 2025 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% RESULT 0.1 DECREASE 0.2-0.1= 1 DECREASE BY 1 POINT -1-1=-2
Jul 15, 2025 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% RESULT 0.2 INCREASE 0.1+0.1= 1 INCREASE BY 1 POINT +1=-1
Jun 11, 2025 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% RESULT 0.1 DECREASE 0.2-0.1= 1 DECREASE BY 1 POINT -1=-2
May 13, 2025 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% RESULT 0.2 INCREASE 0.1+0.1= 2 INCREASE BY 2 POINT +1=-1
Apr 10, 2025 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% RESULT 0.1 DECREASE 0.2-0.1= 1 DECREASE BY 1 POINT -1=-2
Mar 12, 2025 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% RESULT 0.2 DECREASE 0.4-0.2= 2 DECREASE BY 2 POINT -2=-1
Feb 12, 2025 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% RESULT 0.1 INCREASE 0.1+0.1= 2 INCREASE BY 2 POINT +2=01
Jan 15, 2025 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% RESULT 0.1 DECREASE 0.3-0.2= 1 DECREASE BY 1 POINT -1
-VE WRONG +VE

CONCLUSION 1ST DATA SHOW BEARISH 90% BEARS
DATA 2 CPI M/M
Aug 12, 2025 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% RESULT GAIN 1-3=2
Jul 15, 2025 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% RESULT GAIN 1+2=3
Jun 11, 2025 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% RESULT GAIN 2-1=1
May 13, 2025 0.2% 0.3% -0.1% RESULT GAIN -1+2=1
Apr 10, 2025 -0.1% 0.1% 0.2% RESULT GAIN 2-2=-1
Mar 12, 2025 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% RESULT GAIN 3-5=2
Feb 12, 2025 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% RESULT GAIN 1+4=5
Jan 15, 2025 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% RESULT GAIN 1+3=4
CONCLUSION 2ND DATA BEARISH 80% BEARS

CPI Y/Y

Aug 12, 2025 2.8% 2.7% RESULT =0
Jul 15, 2025 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% RESULT +3
Jun 11, 2025 2.4% 2.5% 2.3% RESULT +1
May 13, 2025 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% RESULT -1
Apr 10, 2025 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% RESULT -4
Mar 12, 2025 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% RESULT -2
Feb 12, 2025 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% RESULT +1
Jan 15, 2025 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% RESULT +2

conclusion of 3rd data show that there is 50% chance of buyer 50% seller


PAIR SELECTION TIME 5:30 PAKISTANI TIME

EUR/USD USD/JPY

DIRECTION UP (BUY) DIRECTION DOWN (SELL)

  • #212,764
  • Aug 12, 2025 1:28am Aug 12, 2025 1:28am
Quoting WM4X
H1 The 2 Andrews' forks indicate a bullish direction, and the purple support/resistance line confirms this. I would only expect a downward trend if the price breaks out of the pitchforks and breaks through the purple sup/res line. {image}
Hey,
How can we rely solely on technical analysis like those Andrews' forks and purple sup/res line without paying attention to fundamentals?
I believe the market is usually just a playground for banks and big sharks who paint these analytic figures to trap retail money and cash us out.
What's your take on blending TA with fundies for a more solid view?

Happy trading!
  • #212,765
  • Aug 12, 2025 1:44am Aug 12, 2025 1:44am
Quoting s.jalili
{quote} Hey, How can we rely solely on technical analysis like those Andrews' forks and purple sup/res line without paying attention to fundamentals? I believe the market is usually just a playground for banks and big sharks who paint these analytic figures to trap retail money and cash us out. What's your take on blending TA with fundies for a more solid view? Happy trading!
A trader has no other way than seeking for "high probability".... Superb skills of technicals + fundamentals can not bypass that..

Since there is always risk, a successful trader must FOCUS/DETECT/FIND/DIG OUT/CATCH/ANTICIPATE/SEE/DECIPHER specific areas where the probability of gains are highest and possibility of losses are minimum and by avoiding or outmaneuvering the moments where fundamentals kick in and mess up technicals!

My approach of avoiding a majortiy of fundamental events and focus only on the most important news events + using angled lines together with certain wma lines mostly on the H1 chart is just to achieve that! But of course there could be a gazillion other ways that are maybe worse or better than my approach but as long as it works one must go for it. The rest is to improve and optimize that method...

*and speaking of the HOW, would be a long story to explain where this thread is not the place for!

My two cents...

That said... we better focus on EURUSD...

Thanks
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #212,766
  • Edited 2:17am Aug 12, 2025 2:01am | Edited 2:17am
H4 is Bearish - ATR 36 pips

Key Resistance Levels: 1.1618 - 1.1639 -1.1662 -1.1693
Key Support Levels: 1.1595 - 1.1527 - 1.1454 - 1.1410

Short at 1.1614 SL 1.1653. We should be in for a long run. Go Bears!
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This information is not intended as investment advice
  • #212,767
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:02am Aug 12, 2025 2:02am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} A trader has no other way than seeking for "high probability".... Superb skills of technicals + fundamentals can not bypass that.. Since there is always risk, a successful trader must FOCUS/DETECT/FIND/DIG OUT/CATCH/ANTICIPATE/SEE/DECIPHER specific areas where the probability of gains are highest and possibility of losses are minimum and by avoiding or outmaneuvering the moments where fundamentals kick in and mess up technicals! My approach of avoiding a majortiy of fundamental events and focus only on the most important news events + using...
Love your smart move dodging minor news chaos! Your adaptable, optimizing mindset is inspiring, and I’m eager to explore EURUSD more with your guidance. I actually use a bot trader that decides trades based on technicals, but I turn it off and on following the news too—seems to align with your approach! Anyway, thanks for sharing!
  • #212,768
  • Edited 4:34am Aug 12, 2025 2:12am | Edited 4:34am
hi guys
let's see

***** PICTURE CHANGED *****
Sorry, i post wrong pic.
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  • #212,769
  • Aug 12, 2025 2:51am Aug 12, 2025 2:51am
Fundamentaly
The EUR/USD is influenced by upcoming US CPI data (expected at 2.6% headline, 3.2% core), which could strengthen the USD if hotter than anticipated, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
Eurozone factors include declining Sentix Investor Confidence to -3.7, signaling weakness, while a potential US-Russia meeting has improved sentiment slightly, supporting the pair above 1.1600. Broader 2025 forecasts highlight USD strength from trade deals and economic disparities, favouring a bearish long-term outlook, but short-term Fed cut odds (86% for 0.25% in September) weaken the USD.
Technicaly
The pair trades around 1.162, down 0.04% today, forming a bullish flag pattern with potential breakout above 1.1700 targeting 1.1825. RSI at 44 suggests sell pressure, MACD sell, but STOCH neutral; support at 1.1500, resistance at 1.1700.
Weekly range: 1.1550-1.1730, neutral to slightly bullish.
  • #212,770
  • Aug 12, 2025 3:08am Aug 12, 2025 3:08am
Quick H4 Outlook

  1. Channel and bears seem to be intact.. Therefore:
  2. I am anticipating attacks to ~1.1577 first before we go back to retest ~1.1660...
  3. I watch from sidelines because price strolling at median areas of channels is not a high-probability place to open orders...

My two cents

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #212,771
  • Aug 12, 2025 3:17am Aug 12, 2025 3:17am
Inserted Video
  • #212,772
  • Aug 12, 2025 4:18am Aug 12, 2025 4:18am
Quoting purplezero
hi guys let's see {image}
i try it, sl hit, but the dax "give it back" cpi today..not so easy

https://discord.gg/MvKGYKwP

our free group here
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  • #212,773
  • Aug 12, 2025 4:23am Aug 12, 2025 4:23am
Quoting purplezero
{quote} i try it, sl hit, but the dax "give it back" cpi today..not so easy https://discord.gg/MvKGYKwP our free group here {image}
sorry - this was the idea, with broken trendline in m1
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  • #212,774
  • Aug 12, 2025 4:46am Aug 12, 2025 4:46am
Quoting s.jalili
{quote} Hey, How can we rely solely on technical analysis like those Andrews' forks and purple sup/res line without paying attention to fundamentals? I believe the market is usually just a playground for banks and big sharks who paint these analytic figures to trap retail money and cash us out. What's your take on blending TA with fundies for a more solid view? Happy trading!
My thoughts translated in a chart. There are key areas that currency trades on the open market do not fall within the fiscal policies and its contrast with the central banks. What we can do as retail traders is to identify areas that clearly show price is out of sync with Euro or USD. The supply and demand areas can be seen on the charts and previous rejection zones. The sentiment of the markets at the moment are causing sudden moves so it is better to trade within the daily sentiment then try to trade the long term trend. That said, I know of some people who have traded the swing, but am not sure if that is pure luck or judgement, given that we have had some wild swings since the beginning of the year. I start with the 8H as that tells me what happens in each session, then go down the time frames for a trade. At the moment we seem to be retracing back to the last demand zone and Choch.
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Take 1 step forward, two small steps back
  • #212,775
  • Aug 12, 2025 4:54am Aug 12, 2025 4:54am
in short since 1.16139 stop is 25 pips and tp is 1.15137 which is a couple pips under last tuesdays low
BTMM
  • #212,776
  • Aug 12, 2025 5:18am Aug 12, 2025 5:18am
Quoting Aadanehy1
in short since 1.16139 stop is 25 pips and tp is 1.15137 which is a couple pips under last tuesdays low
exited, i dont like pa rn, im going to enter again when given the opportunity
BTMM
  • #212,777
  • Aug 12, 2025 5:21am Aug 12, 2025 5:21am
Quoting Aadanehy1
{quote} exited, i dont like pa rn, im going to enter again when given the opportunity
Reflecting on my own chart. We have a wick off of 62% retracement of the last impulse move, creating a rejection of that price. We are also getting close to news so the safest trade is not to trade, I think?
Take 1 step forward, two small steps back
  • #212,778
  • Aug 12, 2025 5:23am Aug 12, 2025 5:23am
Quoting s.jalili
{quote} Hey, How can we rely solely on technical analysis like those Andrews' forks and purple sup/res line without paying attention to fundamentals? I believe the market is usually just a playground for banks and big sharks who paint these analytic figures to trap retail money and cash us out. What's your take on blending TA with fundies for a more solid view? Happy trading!
The fundamentals draw the D1 and above charts. If you are a day trader, only technical analysis matters (which is becoming increasingly difficult due to algorithms, charts are not as nice as they used to be); fundamental factors are almost irrelevant. This is especially true these days, just think of Trump's tweets.
Intraday, we are essentially trading "noise," which can easily override fundamentals.
This is just my opinion.
  • #212,779
  • Aug 12, 2025 5:27am Aug 12, 2025 5:27am
Meanwhile, on H1...

For now, 1.1623 shall act resistant... and we can anticipate a new lower low, BUT we must watch if there is hesitance or not!
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #212,780
  • Aug 12, 2025 5:44am Aug 12, 2025 5:44am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Meanwhile, on H1... For now, 1.1623 shall act resistant... and we can anticipate a new lower low, BUT we must watch if there is hesitance or not! {image}
cpi in about two hours, might not see lower low or pa above 162x before that
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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