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The Swamp

  • #124,241
  • Aug 10, 2025 6:53pm Aug 10, 2025 6:53pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} It’s a strange situation, and Zelensky has already come out saying that no territories can be given away. It’s hard for me to understand what kind of meeting he could have with Putin as long as he has promised to impose sanctions against Russia in a few days. I was thinking that if he wanted a meeting, they had already agreed on everything, but it doesn’t seem that way. Anyway, E/U opened the same. If there were room for peace, I believe the EUR/USD would jump sharply at first.
Send weapons. If oil drops the people will take care of Putin
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,242
  • Edited 8:55pm Aug 10, 2025 8:37pm | Edited 8:55pm
Oil. 54.82 has a lot of room below it to 33, or even 23.60. If a global downturn comes. Smoot Hawley

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, signed into law in June 1930, significantly increased import tariffs in the United States, further exacerbating the conditions of the Great Depression.
Tariff rates

  1. The act raised the average tariff on dutiable imports (goods subject to tariffs) by about 20%, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. However, the impact was actually greater due to deflationary pressures during the early 1930s, which increased the effective tariff rate by an additional 30%.
  3. The combined impact of the Act and deflation led to a 12-20% reduction in imports.
  4. Some sources suggest the tariffs raised around 900 import tariffs by an average of 40% to 60%.
  5. A study calculated that the act raised average tariff rates by about 2.5 percentage points from the already high rates under the Fordney-McCumber Tariff of 1922.

Impact on the Great Depression

  1. While it did not cause the Great Depression, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act worsened the economic downturn.
  2. It contributed to a global trade war, as over 25 countries responded with retaliatory tariffs on American goods.
  3. As a result, international trade plummeted by about two-thirds between 1929 and 1934.
  4. US exports fell from $7 billion in 1929 to $2.5 billion in 1932.

In short, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act significantly increased the cost of imports, contributing to a sharp decline in international trade and further intensifying the economic hardships of the Great Depression.
In a short period of time the 2.5% added a decade to the depression. In a short period of time Trump added much more than 2.5%. If it was done slowly over years, it would hurt less. But not at this current speed.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,243
  • Aug 10, 2025 9:33pm Aug 10, 2025 9:33pm
eu sustained above 1663 may be a breakout
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,244
  • Aug 10, 2025 9:36pm Aug 10, 2025 9:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
eu sustained above 1663 may be a breakout
looks like it~ i m waiting for a hour close above
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,245
  • Aug 10, 2025 9:46pm Aug 10, 2025 9:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
eu sustained above 1663 may be a breakout
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The close in 15m is a 6h close.. That give a decent clue
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,246
  • Aug 10, 2025 10:01pm Aug 10, 2025 10:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image} The close in 15m is a 6h close.. That give a decent clue
eu closed 1666.. other than the 666, it looks bullish above 1663. The chf didnt make it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,247
  • Aug 11, 2025 5:19am Aug 11, 2025 5:19am
a whole new revenue stream. a tariff on American companies that export to china...by the American government

Under the agreement, Nvidia will pay 15% of its revenues from H20 chip sales in China to the US government. AMD will also give 15% of revenue generated from sales of its MI308 chip in China to the Trump administration, which was first reported by the Financial Times.51 mins ago
Nvidia and AMD to pay 15% of China chip sales to US - BBC
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #124,248
  • Aug 11, 2025 5:23am Aug 11, 2025 5:23am
the bo 1663 was rejected hours ago. the 12h closed below it, the 12h closed on the bullish side of 1637. So its either going to break 1637, or into 1663 again.. sustained above 1663 today is still a b/o. the chf looks more usd bullish, but it will follow the euro is my guess.
1h chart,, the green candle with the arrow close is the 12h close. back below 1663
the chf is above 8088. the bull side. earlier it didnt make that 6h bear b/o. Its showing it now north above 8088. But the 12h didnt close above 8088. nor did the eu below 1637
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,249
  • Aug 11, 2025 6:12am Aug 11, 2025 6:12am
Quoting axecap
a whole new revenue stream. a tariff on American companies that export to china...by the American government Under the agreement, Nvidia will pay 15% of its revenues from H20 chip sales in China to the US government. AMD will also give 15% of revenue generated from sales of its MI308 chip in China to the Trump administration, which was first reported by the Financial Times.51 mins ago Nvidia and AMD to...
Yeah, the guys against new taxes. Plus it allows the chips they wanted to keep out china.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,250
  • Aug 11, 2025 7:13am Aug 11, 2025 7:13am
Quoting Avir
Commander's Market Log 2 – EUR/USD Analysis Week of 11–15 August 2025 Prepared with Triforce Analysis (Grok, GPT, Gemini & Copilot) Overall Technical Bias: Cautiously Bullish Early → Potential Inflection Midweek [hr] 1. Multi-Timeframe Technical Snapshot Weekly: Price is holding above the key psychological 1.1600 level and the 21 EMA, which has served as dynamic support. Momentum indicators show slowing upside, but no confirmed reversal yet. If 1.1600 holds, structure favors a retest toward 1.1705 (R3). Daily: Current candle is testing last...
Good Afternoon, Traders
As expected, my Support & Resistance levels held up — well-tested in prior sessions — and now my Commander’s Confluence Zones (first live test) are showing promise as well.
Closed my long during the Asian session and flipped short at 1.1671, targeting the 1.1630–1.1644 DeMark Pivot area. London initially bounced it, but that level eventually gave way, triggering my next hedge at 1.1630.
I’m now flat, eyeing a possible exit from my short near or at 1.1609 (DeMark Support). However, last week’s open around 1.1594 remains a valid downside target if momentum continues.
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,251
  • Aug 11, 2025 7:18am Aug 11, 2025 7:18am
I'm looking for 1.1612 to buy _ pending all in place

Edit : this is what i am looking at
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,252
  • Edited 11:03am Aug 11, 2025 10:18am | Edited 11:03am
Above 1575, I favor longs. It looks like it may test that area. More just a wick close. A larger close if crossed close. Once crossed rejected back above 1575 may be a a bounce. It can be an area to monitor. Below 1575 sustained bearish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,253
  • Aug 11, 2025 5:20pm Aug 11, 2025 5:20pm
Quoting Avir
Commander's Market Log 2 – EUR/USD Analysis Week of 11–15 August 2025 Prepared with Triforce Analysis (Grok, GPT, Gemini & Copilot) Overall Technical Bias: Cautiously Bullish Early → Potential Inflection Midweek [hr] 1. Multi-Timeframe Technical Snapshot Weekly: Price is holding above the key psychological 1.1600 level and the 21 EMA, which has served as dynamic support. Momentum indicators show slowing upside, but no confirmed reversal yet. If 1.1600 holds, structure favors a retest toward 1.1705 (R3). Daily: Current candle is testing last...
TRIAL WORKED : It played out nicely today (11-08-25)
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,254
  • Aug 11, 2025 5:22pm Aug 11, 2025 5:22pm
Today's S/R 12/08/25
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,255
  • Aug 11, 2025 5:46pm Aug 11, 2025 5:46pm
1H


1. Trend Structure

  1. We’ve got a series of lower highs from 7th Aug onwards — price is respecting a descending trendline (purple line from top right).
  2. This is shaping into a larger symmetrical triangle breakdown — the last breakout was bearish.
  3. The recent bounce is coming from the 200 EMA/SMA area (purple moving averages).

2. Key Levels

  1. Resistance zone: Around 1.1657 – 1.1689 (previous high + SMA 34).
  2. Immediate resistance: 1.1624 – 1.1632 (horizontal structure + retest of broken support).
  3. Support zone: 1.1584 – 1.1591 (bottom of your purple highlighted box).
  4. Extended downside target: If 1.1584 breaks, we could see 1.1530 – 1.1515 (bottom of box).

3. Indicators

  1. MACD (both windows): Bearish momentum is slowing — histogram bars are shrinking toward zero, but signal lines are still below zero → early signs of possible consolidation or reversal.
  2. RSI (10): Bounced from oversold territory (~30), now around 56 → recovery momentum, but not yet overbought.

4. Bias

  1. Short-term: Potential for a retest of 1.1624 – 1.1632 before deciding direction.
  2. Medium-term: Still bearish bias unless price breaks & closes above 1.1657.
  3. CPI risk: If data surprises USD-weak, triangle break to upside possible. If USD-strong, likely drop toward 1.1584 → 1.1530.

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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,256
  • Aug 11, 2025 7:36pm Aug 11, 2025 7:36pm
I had hoped while here it could reach 1575 to set it as a nice support. It missed it. It may still reach it. But if if dont/cant get sustained back above the support at 1601. It may be a b/o. on the short term day sustained below 1601 may be a bearish b/o. It would need to stay below the support at 1575.. If not it clearing 1601 would likely carry it higher off 1575/1601.. I think its bullish above 1575. So 1601 could support it to a higher run already. I'm holding out for close to 1575, it came within 15. i didnt take it.. 1673 ish has some R.. 1655 has some too. Losing 1637 earlier today, and dropping here was not probable. That's why i hoped it could reach 1575ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,257
  • Aug 12, 2025 6:26am Aug 12, 2025 6:26am
it may be too far.. my ea is shooting for 80 pips here
chf/jpy.. testing it, it has about a 70 win rate. The r/r was decent looking.. average pf 7.8
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,258
  • Aug 12, 2025 8:42am Aug 12, 2025 8:42am
Quoting gatorinla
So 1601 could support it to a higher run already. I'm holding out for close to 1575, it came within 15. i didnt take it.. 1673 ish has some R.. 1655 has some too. Losing 1637 earlier today, and dropping here was not probable. That's why i hoped it could reach 1575ish
1601 held out.. it made it to 1655
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,259
  • Aug 12, 2025 8:53am Aug 12, 2025 8:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1601 held out.. it made it to 1655
Trump picking again on Powell.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,260
  • Aug 12, 2025 8:56am Aug 12, 2025 8:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1601 held out.. it made it to 1655
almost hit your 1673 as well~
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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