The Swamp

Financial Juice slipping an ad into the squawk mid-session can feel like a jump scare

I’ve just moved my stop loss from breakeven (1.1660) down to 1.1655, locking in 10 pips profit.
If this gets triggered, we’ll be heading into the bottom of the hour with just 1 minutes to go.

lc in 1h,, something should happen.. pa is still above 1638

5 min in this h.. its looking bullish above 1638.

its widening the space from 1624..thats not usually what a bear would do this late. Its leaning bullish. As long as it dont take back 1637..It looks like up. This current candle will close a 6h candle

Stop loss was hit at 1.16155, locking in +10 pips. I’m flat going into the weekend — charts are closed, and so am I.

Had my lunch and came back to see EUR momentum tempting me to go long — so I did!

1. 
   [] First entry: L @ 1.16563
   [] Second entry: L @ 1.16571

Both positions are currently in the green.
Targeting a clean break above today’s high at 1.1680. Around 40 pips beyond that lies my final target for the day — ideally before 9 PM London.
All alarms are set, Squawk and TickStrike on full volume. If we get the break above 1.1680, I’ll take a couple of hours’ nap before my last night shift for at least a month (starts 2:30 AM).
[HR]
Commander’s Market Log — https://djemkumar.com/

It’s time for me to catch some sleep.
I’m really feeling sleepy, so I’ll call it a day here.
Wishing everyone a good evening and a great weekend.
Currently working on a special Drum & Bass mix for a friend — this will be my first-ever DnB mix!
Hopefully it will be ready before Monday’s market open.
This will be my last snip for the week.
Look out for my mix next week:
djemkumar.com
SoundCloud & Mix cloud: @DJMK
[hr]
Commander’s Market Log — https://djemkumar.com/
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment/image/5018402

If EUR spikes upward, my alarms will go off and wake me — so you might see me back here a bit later.
If not, I’ll see you all in the morning.

Have a Lovely weekend everyone


Caution: Hi-powered sounds ahead!

Keep your volume low… or not.

4EMILY | Drum & Bass 2025 – Part One

A week of late nights, pounding bass, and pure focus.
No loudspeakers — just me, my Pioneer DJ headphones, decks, and the dark.
While the family slept, I crafted every drop and transition.
This isn’t just a mix… it’s a promise to Emily for her festival weekend.
She’s out there right now — and this is her afterparty soundtrack.

Listen now on SoundCloud: 4EMILY D&B 2025 – Part One
47 minutes of high-voltage Drum & Bass built to keep the energy alive until sunrise.

Turn it up, feel the rush, and ride the waves!
Mixed by: DJ EM K
https://djemkumar.com

Trump to meet Putin in Alaska on August 15
They probably have a draft now. Strange that gold stood up so high.
EUR/USD makes more sense now. S&P500 could raise again next week also with Europeans.

That's a really hard war to stop. Very nice

hi Gator do u have the latest cot report?

It stagnated Friday. 1637 was retested. It managed to close above 1637. The CHF closed below 8088x.. Both in that context, on the usd bearish side. A Monday move will often beat adr.

now you got one. Scroll down
https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

Does it matter if Ukraine is not part of it? I think so. Ukraine law dont allow giving up land. Trump is transactional for what he gets (Trump only cares about Trump). Most people would die before giving up their land, or freedom. People fighting for their land, and family fight harder. The 3 day war is 3 years plus now. Putin has/had all yes men. People who won't tell him the truth. They agree with everything he says. Trump is trying to make America in that image. When your too scared to tell the boss he is wrong. You end up destroying/losing it all.

Commander's Market Log 2 – EUR/USD Analysis
Week of 11–15 August 2025
Prepared with Triforce Analysis (Grok, GPT, Gemini & Copilot)

Overall Technical Bias: Cautiously Bullish Early → Potential Inflection Midweek
[hr]
1. Multi-Timeframe Technical Snapshot
Weekly: Price is holding above the key psychological 1.1600 level and the 21 EMA, which has served as dynamic support. Momentum indicators show slowing upside, but no confirmed reversal yet. If 1.1600 holds, structure favors a retest toward 1.1705 (R3).
Daily: Current candle is testing last week’s highs after a corrective pullback. RSI ~52 gives room for more upside before overbought territory. MACD is flat but above zero, suggesting consolidation before the next move. Critical support sits at 1.1580–1.1600; a break below opens 1.1530 and possibly 1.1445 (weekly support).
Hourly: 1H shows tight consolidation (1.1626–1.1662) after a prior impulse. MACD & RSI neutral — market is waiting for a catalyst. Short-term pivot: 1.1640. Above = bullish toward 1.1680–1.1700.
[hr]
2. Fundamental Risk Events & Scenarios
Key Drivers This Week:

1. Tues, Aug 12: US CPI (m/m & y/y – Core & Headline) → Will set USD tone.
2. Thu, Aug 14: US PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims → Back-to-back key prints, expect volatility.
3. Fri, Aug 15: Trump–Putin Alaska Meeting → Major geopolitical wildcard.

Bullish Path (Primary Bias until Aug 14):
If CPI isn’t “too hot,” EUR/USD could drift toward 1.1680–1.1705 (R3) midweek. Daily close above 1.1705 may extend to 1.1760 (weekly resistance).
Bearish Reversal Trigger:
A hot CPI + hawkish Fed expectations could break 1.1600 support. Daily close below 1.1580 risks a drop toward 1.1530 or 1.1445.
[hr]
3. Commander’s Confluence Zones & Pivots
Commander’s Daily Pivot: 1.1649
Resistance Levels:

1. R1: 1.1670
2. R2: 1.1700
3. R3: 1.1721

Support Levels:

1. S1: 1.1620
2. S2: 1.1599
3. S3: 1.1569

De Mark Levels:

1. S: 1.1660
2. Pivot: 1.1644
3. R: 1.1609

Commander’s Confluence PowerZone: (*Trying this for the first time – My own)

1. 1.18825 - 1.18895
2. 1.17915 - 1.17985
3. 1.17145 - 1.17215
4. 1.16585 - 1.16655
5. 1.16235 - 1.16305
6. 1.15815 - 1.15885
7. 1.15465 - 1.15535
8. 1.14485 - 1.14555

Commander’s Live chart with all the numbers:
Live Trading View Chart: Click Here to View
[hr]
4. Commander’s Week Plan
Monday: Range-bound scouting. Watch for breakout of 1.1604 / 1.1689.
Tuesday (CPI): Expect high volatility. Beware fakeouts in first 15 mins.
Midweek: Position for follow-through after CPI. Avoid overexposure before PPI.
Friday: Data + geopolitical wildcard → expect whipsaws.
[hr]
Commander’s Note: The Trump–Putin meeting on Aug 15 could override all technicals. Peace optimism = risk-on (EUR↑), escalation = risk-off (USD↑). Position sizing & hedging are key midweek.
Commander’s Market Log by — https://djemkumar.com/

thank you Gator, its funny that the large players are still holding shorts

Geopolitical + Market Bias (Aug 11–15, 2025)
Market Optimism Side ( ):

1. The Trump–Putin Alaska meeting is being read by some traders as a sign that a draft peace framework could already exist.
2. Gold staying elevated shows hedging hasn’t stopped — traders are hopeful but still risk-conscious.
3. EUR/USD strength last week fits the idea that markets are front-running potential peace, especially with the eurozone seen as a major beneficiary.
4. S&P500 and other risk assets could rally on even a hint of progress — this could spill over into EUR/USD if USD safe-haven demand eases.

Geopolitical Reality Check (

):

1. Ukraine’s constitution forbids territorial concessions — even if leaders shake hands, legal and political roadblocks remain.
2. Trump’s transactional style means any deal will hinge on what he gains personally or politically, not just peace outcomes.
3. High morale in Ukraine’s resistance + entrenched fronts mean quick resolutions are unlikely — the war has already stretched from “3 days” to over 3 years.
4. Putin’s insulated leadership may misread the ground reality, risking failed negotiations or renewed escalation.
5. If talks collapse, safe-haven flows into USD and gold could snap back violently.

Trading Implication for EUR/USD

1. Short-term (Mon–Thu before meeting): Bias is cautiously bullish above 1.1600 — markets will position on hope. Dips to 1.1620–1.1599 likely get bought unless CPI comes in hot.
2. Friday (Aug 15): Event risk is extreme. If the meeting produces a credible peace roadmap → EUR/USD could spike toward 1.1720–1.1760, but…
3. If talks stall or collapse → expect a sharp reversal toward 1.1530 or even 1.1445 as safe-haven USD buying surges.
4. Strategy: Avoid heavy directional exposure going into Friday; use hedges or reduced position size. Potential for “sell the news” even on positive headlines if markets had already priced in peace.

It’s a strange situation, and Zelensky has already come out saying that no territories can be given away. It’s hard for me to understand what kind of meeting he could have with Putin as long as he has promised to impose sanctions against Russia in a few days.
I was thinking that if he wanted a meeting, they had already agreed on everything, but it doesn’t seem that way.

Anyway, E/U opened the same. If there were room for peace, I believe the EUR/USD would jump sharply at first.