Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

Currently neutral-down with the med-green acting as support.

Not much. Price may start the base process.

Nope. Just a bit of accumulation before some more down. Hitting big-blue again. The pause is an area of entry with the cross of the Gold. Not enough umph to carry it much.

The theory is that price will move mainly in the direction of its position in relation to the buy-side/sell-side of the HMA.

If on the buy-side price will move mainly long or neutral (sideways) with limited counter moves. Opposite for the sell-side.

limited = occasional





This is the past week on the 41-range. Added to the chart since the initial theorem was posted is the med-green. This clearly defines the cycles. You should be able to see how the blue and green work together. The silver vert lines are the EOD. The red vert is 0930 NYSE open. The orchid is my start. The green, blue, and red dotted lines are the 15-minute NYSE opening range of high, mid, low.

When I sit down for the day, from this chart I can clearly see where price has come from and with fairly reasonable confidence potential direction as the day progresses.

Monday is outlined in the box. Friday was the bottom of a few panic days. Coming into the new week price tapped big-blue and moved up into the open. The arrow points to a brief period of accumulation after the 0930 open. From there price climbed the rest of the day. Unknown to us at the time was that Monday just brought price to a range area. (This got me to thinking and I have some thoughts for the overnight into the NYSE open.)

The 8-range chart. In the oval is the tap to big-blue. The square is the accumulation area. Med-green and big-blue are roughly the same across the three charts. As are the Gold, Red, and VT on the 8-range and 3-range.

This is the 8-range covering the period of my trading session, 1045 to 1545 ET. No, I am not glued to the screen that whole time. This is a clean view (if that is possible with all the squigglies) before discussion.

The first easily seen thing are the irregular cycles of price crossing the Gold. Working in conjunction with this is the Red. Being a shorter period it is naturally less smooth. By now you should be seeing where some entries could be made using the Red. This does not negate the basic rules as it is an extension to the rules.

The next is how the VT (Vegas Tunnel) creates a useful dynamic grid. I have created a few rules around this. A main function is how the tunnel, the two orchid ema's, are a decent dynamic mid-point. In fact it is a main focal point. From the VT are the fib envelopes that make up the grid. On this instrument, those lines are the amount of ticks from the mid-point. This makes it very easy to calculate the value of moves. These fib points are areas for entries.

The division of the fib envelopes is:
Brown = 21 ticks. This makes the distance from one to the other about the same as a 41-range bar if it were to open at one heading to the other. This area between the 21 fib bands that includes the tunnel is the central balance zone.
Green = 55 ticks. From side to side this is a 10 pt move. 34 ticks from the brown and 34 ticks from the purple.
Purple = 89 ticks.
Red = 144 ticks. This zone is not often reached.

The blue arrows are representing the upward influence of both big-blue and med-green. The ovals show where price, and the Red and on the 3-range the white-waldo, to the buy/sell side of the Gold.

The green arrows show the three main pullbacks on this day. The med-green in sync with the VT is due to the mostly constant up move.

The pink rectangles show areas where price action leads into potential entries from the Red.

The line above is important. Even though this system is loaded with MAs, how you read it is through the reactions and interactions price has with its self-created framework. Essential. PA within the system is how it is traded.

ciao

I was working on the basics of this system here before my hiatus. I could never quite get it to work not knowing at that time how bars based on time were giving a distorted view of price. Through a sidetrack, which is where the no time concept was firmly accepted, I was at a point of near completion with the system. I returned to FF and used this environment to finish the process. One of the main reasons of returning was for possible discussion. Alas, FF is nowhere near what it was. So I continue on as before.

I didn't start with the Russell 2K, I went through the NASDAQ, S&P 500, I even looked into EurUSD futures. So, I am nowhere near an expert on the inner workings of this index. Not even going to try or pretend I could do that with any justice. When I got to this index and saw how well it fit into the basic framework I had at that time I knew I had my instrument. I knew I was close to completion.

I have set up my trading session so I do not need to be concerned with data dumps, that thing most call news. That clears me to trade what price does. Even if one traded news times or other instruments during those events, common sense trading will keep one safe. Even extreme moves are accounted for in the short term and the system will quickly return to normal. I am a technical day trader. The system I have put together is designed to be just that based on my past learning path in trading.

Once I got a good grasp on the period sizes needed for each bar size it became a process of working through some ideas and fitting the framework so that price would continue to create what I set out to have it do. And we are there. See no need for any further tweaks. And yes, I am amazed at how well this turned out every time I open the charts.

Beauty in motion. Adding the VT gave me more than just a grid view. It does aid in entries. More on that in time.



Perhaps one of the best ways to approach the concept of price action is "fluid". And that concept is easily seen through the framework. At least for me. This way I do not have to imagine these areas in my head nor do I need to draw stuff on the chart all the time. Looking as PA as fluid and you can easily see the Buy/Sell (long/short) side concept and the S/R holds until it doesn't as price is in a constant state of flux.


This is this past Tuesday 5 Aug 25. This shows many of the concepts in action.

(A)-(B) Price begins on the sell side of the Green. There are two areas were price and the green come into equilibrium or balance (however you want to say it). At these points the green is considered resistance and this holds true.

(C) The first time price moved down toward the Blue. It lost momentum and retraced to test resistance (B).

(D) The second time through it reached the blue at the area of PDH and the Opens. Price moved in a sideways (neutral) manner for a short period. This was at a data dump.

(E)-(F) Once price got through the blue there was an initial push followed by a pullback. In this case the pullback was in two steps and reached back to the blue.

(G) From there, the optimal entry here was after it moved back into the sell side of the Red at the Mid-Point of the VT and did a slight pullback.

(H) The ensuing move took price down some 20+ points to just above the Daily/Weekly PP right before the start of my trading session.

If I were trading around these times I would use caution. For what it's worth,

Slow and choppy with US CPI tomorrow.

Narrow range carried over from Friday. Above Weekly PP. Bounced twice at Daily S1. That was where price crossed to the long-gold. The almost identical 2nd low was the pullback and entry off that. 10 pts.

Here it is on the 3-range.