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48ema system

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 5, 2006 10:51am Dec 5, 2006 10:51am
This will be a journal of a simple MA system based on price penetrating the 48 ema on the 1hr chart and taking a trade either on the breakout or on a break of the first 1 hr pullback .

Trade1 - price break and close below 48ema short gbp\usd @ 1.9721 with stoploss at 1.9854.
  • #2
  • Dec 5, 2006 2:05pm Dec 5, 2006 2:05pm
Quoting enoc2g
This will be a journal of a simple MA system based on price penetrating the 48 ema on the 1hr chart and taking a trade either on the breakout or on a break of the first 1 hr pullback .

Trade1 - price break and close below 48ema short gbp\usd @ 1.9721 with stoploss at 1.9854.
Hi Enoc !!
I was trading with a simple MA 50 in Euro-Us. Very profitable in certain market conditions.
My experience is that in order to be succesful with this you have to set a strict rules of SL and TP.
What do you do to TP and SL ?? exit rules??
Tks. !!
  • #3
  • Dec 5, 2006 2:15pm Dec 5, 2006 2:15pm
TP is basically open ended and based on price movement but basically the first goal would be lock in 50 to 100 pips on a good rally down or up, stop will be most recent resistance or support level off the hourly chart.
  • #4
  • Dec 5, 2006 9:40pm Dec 5, 2006 9:40pm
One of my systems use a 40EMA, almost like yours.

No magic as to why I use a 40EMA. It just works for me. What you need to work out is when ranging markets come in effect. You'll be shorting then buying and again until you can't take the pain anymore.

You'll want to add support & resistance level into your system to prevent whipsaws.

Good luck and Happy trading!
  • #5
  • Dec 6, 2006 6:28am Dec 6, 2006 6:28am
+76 pips open profit on short cable position, will move stop to BE and let the position develope.
  • #6
  • Dec 7, 2006 9:31am Dec 7, 2006 9:31am
+91 pips open profit at the moment still short cable, stop moved to BE @ 9721. System still signals short price has not broken back up thru the 48 ema on the 1hr chart.
  • #7
  • Dec 7, 2006 9:54am Dec 7, 2006 9:54am
Quoting enoc2g
This will be a journal of a simple MA system based on price penetrating the 48 ema on the 1hr chart and taking a trade either on the breakout or on a break of the first 1 hr pullback .

Trade1 - price break and close below 48ema short gbp\usd @ 1.9721 with stoploss at 1.9854.
This sounds interesting, can you explain please how you enter a trade? Thank you.
Steve
  • #8
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:08am Dec 7, 2006 10:08am
sure, once price penetrates the 48 ema on the hourly i pull the trigger, I also use the 12ema cross over as well for extra confirmation, but as long as price stays below the 48 ema i stay short with a protective stop loss in place, im looking for trends and corrective moves to develope with this system. If i miss the initial signal i will wait for a pullback and enter on a new break of the low or high of that bar.
  • #9
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:17am Dec 7, 2006 10:17am
Quoting enoc2g
sure, once price penetrates the 48 ema on the hourly i pull the trigger, I also use the 12ema cross over as well for extra confirmation, but as long as price stays below the 48 ema i stay short with a protective stop loss in place, im looking for trends and corrective moves to develope with this system. If i miss the initial signal i will wait for a pullback and enter on a new break of the low or high of that bar.
Thank you for the explanation, I will check that out.
Steve
  • #10
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:59am Dec 7, 2006 10:59am
Also not every signal has to be taken, i leave it discretionary meaning that I can select which signals have more chance of working out than others, and which ones are more prone to whipsaws and range bound action which would generate many false signals, I would after a good move if the ema's cross and price closes back above the 48 ema this would constitute a good close after a nice run up or down.
  • #11
  • Dec 8, 2006 5:42am Dec 8, 2006 5:42am
I have currently locked in 105 pips profit pre-NFP, still in the original move down, will reposition after figure is released.
  • #12
  • Dec 8, 2006 5:46am Dec 8, 2006 5:46am
price seems to be trying to extend further away from my emas, trade is now risk free with profit target captured.
  • #13
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:02am Dec 8, 2006 6:02am
hello enoc2g ..

Thanx for sharing ..

tell me plz .. how to know its gonna reverse ?? Shall we look at less time frames for example ??

thanx .
  • #14
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:08am Dec 8, 2006 6:08am
This is nice.

Do this: Make a plan (if you haven't already) about what to do during times like 10/31 thru 11/906 GBP/USD. There are a few days of whipsaws.

Make your plan in cement: ?? Penetrate (I just like this word!), close above/below, trendline break along with the 48, Slingshot Double CCI for re-entries, bailout plan to cut losses short, etc.

Spend so much time till it hurts developing a SL and TP plan. Forget about entries they'll be there most of the time Then you will always be consistent with this. I'm saying this b/c everything looks great until we get a few days like this and then we dump a good thing by the wayside.

Good luck,

kt
  • #15
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:18am Dec 8, 2006 6:18am
K i hear u, i will strive to take more "high" prob setups but yeah whipsaws area fact of life will facot them and drawdown into the equation but try to keep my losses limited with good stop management. right now i would be exiting my position if my trailing stop is hit.
  • #16
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:59am Dec 8, 2006 6:59am
one thing im realizing about trading is that u really dont know anything all u can do is follow ur plan and trade your system, theres no garentee that it will reverse or that it wont. Therefore my goal is to lock in profits especially before news announcements to avoid getting killed severely... ;-) This is my personal system and im doing what fits my own personal style feel free to tweak it to ur liking.
  • #17
  • Dec 8, 2006 7:44am Dec 8, 2006 7:44am
position exited on trailing stop +105 pips in the bank.
  • #18
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:16am Dec 8, 2006 10:16am
I have taken a long signal with price break above the 48 ema on 1hr pullback bar in @ 1.9687 SL @1.9620, will see how this signal pans out, im trading only half my normal lot size just to probe the situation.
  • #19
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:49am Dec 8, 2006 10:49am
long trade signal scratched on rebreak down of 48 ema, stop above most recent swing high @1.9725 entry @1.9632
  • #20
  • Dec 8, 2006 10:52am Dec 8, 2006 10:52am
Potential target level @1.9433 swing low.
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