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  • #124,181
  • Aug 7, 2025 8:44am Aug 7, 2025 8:44am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} or peace between Russia and Ukraine.
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The less money Putin has, the less he can spend on war.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,182
  • Aug 7, 2025 8:53am Aug 7, 2025 8:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If the world slows.. Crude demand drops. The usd is weak.. Crude is down. That to me alone shows a drop in oil demand, or high supply. A weak usd, and dropping oil prices is not a great economy sign,
The world has already slowed. We're not heading toward slowdown — we’re operating in it.
If things were genuinely stable, we wouldn't see:

  1. U.S. envoys spending hours in closed-door talks with Putin
  2. India and China, long-time rivals, suddenly holding meetings in Beijing

These aren’t routine moves — they’re signs of a global chessboard shifting in real time.
So yes — Crude may be dropping despite a weak USD, but in my view, that doesn’t just signal weak demand...
It reflects deep geopolitical uncertainty, fractured supply chains, and the need for strategic alignment before the next storm.
That’s why I created the Commander’s Log — not just to track EUR/USD, but to read the undercurrents most miss. Appreciate your take — this is the kind of conversation that adds real depth.

FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,183
  • Aug 7, 2025 8:56am Aug 7, 2025 8:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {image} The less money Putin has, the less he can spend on war.
That's also true. I think big boys thinks as you say, Lower economic growth may affect all not just the west.
Hard War to fight. We will see, Peace in Ukraine would really help S&P and economy but hard hard war, many many implications there are not even public
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,184
  • Aug 7, 2025 9:04am Aug 7, 2025 9:04am
Quoting Avir
{quote} The world has already slowed. We're not heading toward slowdown — we’re operating in it. If things were genuinely stable, we wouldn't see: U.S. envoys spending hours in closed-door talks with Putin India and China, long-time rivals, suddenly holding meetings in Beijing These aren’t routine moves — they’re signs of a global chessboard shifting in real time. So yes — Crude may be dropping despite a weak USD, but in my view, that doesn’t just signal weak demand... It reflects deep geopolitical uncertainty, fractured supply chains, and the need...
Just the early part. A lot of companies held off raising prices. It just gets worse now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,185
  • Aug 7, 2025 9:07am Aug 7, 2025 9:07am
Quoting Avir
{quote} The world has already slowed. We're not heading toward slowdown — we’re operating in it. If things were genuinely stable, we wouldn't see: U.S. envoys spending hours in closed-door talks with Putin India and China, long-time rivals, suddenly holding meetings in Beijing These aren’t routine moves — they’re signs of a global chessboard shifting in real time. So yes — Crude may be dropping despite a weak USD, but in my view, that doesn’t just signal weak demand... It reflects deep geopolitical uncertainty, fractured supply chains, and the need...
Without AI, a dropping usd, while oil prices are dropping usually means storage is climbing. Less oil demand can cause a rise in storage. If this occurs while the usd is falling, that's a double shot.

AI Overview
Yes, it appears that oil storage levels are currently rising in the US and globally. Several sources indicate an increase in crude oil inventories, both in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and in global onshore storage facilities. This increase is driven by a combination of factors, including increased imports outpacing exports in the US and a general expectation of rising oil supply.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:

  1. US Oil Stocks:
    In the last week of June 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, reaching about 419 million barrels according to The Rio Times, according to YCharts. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also saw an increase, with stocks rising from 402.74 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels in the week ending August 6, 2025 according to YCharts.
  2. Global Oil Inventories:
    Total global oil inventories have also been on the rise, with a second consecutive monthly increase recorded in March. Reuters reported that onshore inventories have increased by over 100 million barrels between mid-April and mid-May, reaching 3.127 billion barrels.
  3. Factors Contributing to the Rise:
    The increase in storage levels is influenced by several factors, including increased oil production from non-OPEC+ countries, a potential price war among major producers, and strategic stockpiling efforts by countries like China according to Reuters. Additionally, some market analysts suggest that current storage levels are being driven by traders anticipating future price increases and choosing to store oil in the meantime.
  4. Impact on Prices:
    Rising oil storage levels can be a bearish signal for oil prices, as it suggests an oversupply in the market according to Reuters. However, the impact on prices can be complex and depend on various other factors, such as global economic conditions and geopolitical events.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,186
  • Aug 7, 2025 9:29am Aug 7, 2025 9:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Without AI, a dropping usd, while oil prices are dropping usually means storage is climbing. Less oil demand can cause a rise in storage. If this occurs while the usd is falling, that's a double shot. AI Overview Yes, it appears that oil storage levels are currently rising in the US and globally. Several sources indicate an increase in crude oil inventories, both in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and in global onshore storage facilities. This increase is driven by a combination of factors, including increased imports outpacing exports...
Hang on — I need to take a deeper look at this before I respond. BRB shortly.
While we wait to see if 1.1624 holds and rejects, I’m actually planning a potential long from here.
Let me read the charts — and your comment — thoroughly before I reply.
This is turning into a fun one, Gator.
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,187
  • Aug 7, 2025 9:36am Aug 7, 2025 9:36am
This 15m rejection zone lines up with prior S/R and the 200 EMA. It's now or never for bulls — if they can’t hold 1.1624, this move could stall. Daily remains mixed, but we’re sitting right on the 21 SMA — not a death blow for bulls. Let’s see what NY does… Be back shortly.
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,188
  • Aug 7, 2025 9:46am Aug 7, 2025 9:46am
Quoting Avir
This 15m rejection zone lines up with prior S/R and the 200 EMA. It's now or never for bulls — if they can’t hold 1.1624, this move could stall. Daily remains mixed, but we’re sitting right on the 21 SMA — not a death blow for bulls. Let’s see what NY does… Be back shortly. {image} {image}
1. 15-Minute Chart (Rejection Zone)

  1. Strong support bounce at 1.1627 – aligned with the 200 EMA (likely purple line)
  2. Candles showing lower wick rejections = buyers stepping in.
  3. RSI is oversold and turning up = momentum may shift bullish
  4. This is a micro base building zone. If price holds above 1.1625, a scalper’s long is justified, but London exit soon means thinner volume.

2. 1-Hour Chart

  1. Large red candle, but bottom tail forms at the same support zone.
  2. MA cluster above (yellow/green lines) may act as resistance (1.1642/1.1650), so the risk/reward on a long depends on tight entry near 1.1625.
  3. If bulls take control, they might target 1.1644, the former low.

3. Daily Chart

  1. You’re sitting on the 21 SMA, still within yesterday’s range.
  2. Structure not broken, so still bullish bias intact unless 1.1600 breaks.
  3. Small red candle today could just be a pullback.

Decision Zone: Long or Wait?

  1. IF 1.1624 holds (retest/rejection confirmed), long with tight stop below 1.1618 makes sense.
  2. First TP = 1.1644 (old low), second TP = 1.1655/60.
  3. Caution: If US session opens with bearish momentum or breaks 1.1624, wait for 1.1600 support test before going long again.

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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,189
  • Aug 7, 2025 2:41pm Aug 7, 2025 2:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Without AI, nomic conditions and geopolitical events.
I believe AI is good at showing you certain things you don’t see, and it’s more objective than we are.
But not entirely. I’ve noticed that when I ask ChatGPT something, I get different answers compared to someone else who asks the same question but thinks differently than I do.
What I actually work on with AI is improving myself and correcting certain things, not receiving advice that doesn’t match my style. And this applies to many areas.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,190
  • Aug 7, 2025 2:43pm Aug 7, 2025 2:43pm
Gold back to 3400. EUR/USD jumps as Trump take a bite on FED.
Let's see if sellers come back again at this lvls
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,191
  • Aug 7, 2025 2:44pm Aug 7, 2025 2:44pm
Quoting DMA Trader
Gold back to 3400. EUR/USD jumps as Trump take a bite on FED. Let's see if sellers come back again at this lvls
let see where we close the day at
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,192
  • Aug 7, 2025 2:45pm Aug 7, 2025 2:45pm
"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,193
  • Aug 7, 2025 2:48pm Aug 7, 2025 2:48pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} let see where we close the day at
any interfere on FED by Donald Trump will not help the dollar. imagine the swap and we still trade at 1.165. crazy
and probably Waller will be the next FED chair
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,194
  • Aug 7, 2025 2:50pm Aug 7, 2025 2:50pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} any interfere on FED by Donald Trump will not help the dollar. imagine the swap and we still trade at 1.165. crazy and probably Waller will be the next FED chair
its only going to damage fed independence so yea not a good news~ bear effort been wiped
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,195
  • Aug 7, 2025 3:04pm Aug 7, 2025 3:04pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I believe AI is good at showing you certain things you don’t see, and it’s more objective than we are. But not entirely. I’ve noticed that when I ask ChatGPT something, I get different answers compared to someone else who asks the same question but thinks differently than I do. What I actually work on with AI is improving myself and correcting certain things, not receiving advice that doesn’t match my style. And this applies to many areas.
tell it to research it. and keep a bias out
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,196
  • Aug 7, 2025 3:10pm Aug 7, 2025 3:10pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} let see where we close the day at
If we loose the Fed and independence or real labor reports. Its near over. People are not getting it, if the bond market goes. The rates will rise. The deficit with rising rates will crash. Nobody will be able to finance a home, cc,, local governments won't be able to sell bonds. Jobs dry up.. No expansion.. Stagnation while you owe more. We did this before.. The entire world suffered. Doing the same thing and expecting a different result.. Nuts
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Smo...ley-Tariff-Act
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, U.S. legislation (June 17, 1930) that raised import duties to protect American businesses and farmers, adding considerable strain to the international economic climate of the Great Depression. The act takes its name from its chief sponsors, Senator Reed Smoot of Utah, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Representative Willis Hawley of Oregon, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. It was the last legislation under which the U.S. Congress set actual tariff rates.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #124,197
  • Aug 7, 2025 3:19pm Aug 7, 2025 3:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} tell it to research it. and keep a bias out
I have also the research mode but I still think he has my bias.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #124,198
  • Aug 7, 2025 3:29pm Aug 7, 2025 3:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If we loose the Fed and independence or real labor reports. Its near over. People are not getting it, if the bond market goes. The rates will rise. The deficit with rising rates will crash. Nobody will be able to finance a home, cc,, local governments won't be able to sell bonds. Jobs dry up.. No expansion.. Stagnation while you owe more. We did this before.. The entire world suffered. Doing the same thing and expecting a different result.. Nuts https://www.britannica.com/topic/Smo...ley-Tariff-Act Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act,...
I thought market would already know that this is coming. We all know what hes going to do
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #124,199
  • Aug 7, 2025 3:35pm Aug 7, 2025 3:35pm
Good Evening guys,
One more TP done and I'm done for the day, Took a Long at 1.16184 just after London fix and took a nap. Alarm stated going when the price was near My TP.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...15342510#reply
@DMA about Chat GPT yes it happens AI's not always right - I noticed that with GPT as well but GROK is little better but it is more technical - Like Gator said ask it to refresh or start a new Chat

Damn after a long absent from FF I forgot how to quote multiple posts
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #124,200
  • Aug 7, 2025 3:45pm Aug 7, 2025 3:45pm
Quoting Avir
{quote} Hang on — I need to take a deeper look at this before I respond. BRB shortly. While we wait to see if 1.1624 holds and rejects, I’m actually planning a potential long from here. Let me read the charts — and your comment — thoroughly before I reply. This is turning into a fun one, Gator.
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Without AI, a dropping usd, while oil prices are dropping usually means storage is climbing. Less oil demand can cause a rise in storage. If this occurs while the usd is falling, that's a double shot. AI Overview Yes, it appears that oil storage levels are currently rising in the US and globally. Several sources indicate an increase in crude oil inventories, both in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and in global onshore storage facilities. This increase is driven by a combination of factors, including increased imports outpacing exports in the US and a general expectation of rising oil supply. Here's a more detailed breakdown: US Oil Stocks: In the last week of June 2025, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, reaching about 419 million barrels according to The Rio Times, according to YCharts. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also saw an increase, with stocks rising from 402.74 million barrels to 402.98 million barrels in the week ending August 6, 2025 according to YCharts. Global Oil Inventories: Total global oil inventories have also been on the rise, with a second consecutive monthly increase recorded in March. Reuters reported that onshore inventories have increased by over 100 million barrels between mid-April and mid-May, reaching 3.127 billion barrels. Factors Contributing to the Rise: The increase in storage levels is influenced by several factors, including increased oil production from non-OPEC+ countries, a potential price war among major producers, and strategic stockpiling efforts by countries like China according to Reuters. Additionally, some market analysts suggest that current storage levels are being driven by traders anticipating future price increases and choosing to store oil in the meantime. Impact on Prices: Rising oil storage levels can be a bearish signal for oil prices, as it suggests an oversupply in the market according to Reuters. However, the impact on prices can be complex and depend on various other factors, such as global economic conditions and geopolitical events.
Gator — fair shot, I’ll take that one on the chin
But to be honest, that kind of breakdown is exactly why I started the Log — to unpack complex global flows like this with a wider lens.
You’re absolutely right about oil storage — I looked deeper after your comment. The storage builds do line up with a softer USD, and that’s not a usual combo unless there's a disconnect between demand expectations and what’s really going on geopolitically.
Here’s what feels off to me though:

  1. Oil demand should’ve collapsed months ago if recession signals were clean.
  2. But you’ve got China stockpiling, India negotiating in Beijing, and the U.S. trying to thaw lines with Russia — something isn’t being said out loud.

So while the oil data might point to oversupply, I think there’s a deeper re-alignment happening. One that may not hit the oil chart until it’s too late.
Appreciate you holding the macro line — this is the kind of discussion that makes this place solid.

FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
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