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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #541
  • Aug 10, 2007 1:33am Aug 10, 2007 1:33am
A bit late in posting but 1.3650 was good buying (again !!). Market currently at 1.3672.

If it dips back into the 1.3660's again, then it is a good "probability-positive" trade.


.
  • #542
  • Edited 5:48am Aug 10, 2007 5:33am | Edited 5:48am
Time to do some house keeping... Come on guys, this is after all Jacko's JOURNAL thread so leave off all the how do I stuff. I am going to remove all of those posts.

Sorry about that Jacko. I hope we are back on track now...

Thanks
  • #543
  • Aug 10, 2007 8:32am Aug 10, 2007 8:32am
I think Jacko just mentioned that 650 was another good probability entry. It remains the point of 38.5 retrace of the main recent move and is now around an area of good support.

(note - Jacko says he only uses 50% retrace, however I believe he myay be more than a little lax on this point depending upon intuition and sentiment towards market movements)


The point of 50% retrace occurs at 560, so 600 or 550 are also possible entry points IF price declines that far


The reason 700 was mentioned - i believe - was that it was a 50% retrace of the recent retest of the 850 region. It is a much more aggressive play, but AH may well get you out of difficulties should the trade have gone sour.

I think that's right.


edit. Oh, the post I was replying to has been removed. Feel free to remove this too.
quote of the day: . It's like deja-vu all over again
  • #544
  • Aug 10, 2007 9:36am Aug 10, 2007 9:36am
Quoting jacko
A bit late in posting but 1.3650 was good buying (again !!). Market currently at 1.3672.

If it dips back into the 1.3660's again, then it is a good "probability-positive" trade.


.

Have been in and out of this market today.
Got in at 1.3650-1.3655.
Market moved to 1.3701 (Feelin good !!)
Then dropped. (Not feelin so good !!!)
Trailing SL was at 1.3651 but, given the rapid rate of drop from 1.3690, I closed out at just above B/E. (Feelin disappointed !!!)
An hour later, egged on by Mark and Newbie and feeling a bit brave, I am back in at 1.3650 (but not feeling real confident !!!)....
Market is very choppy and volatile.

Four hourly trend line cracked at 1.3700 and market has been bouncing between 1.3700 and 1.3650 ever since.

Still happy to buy at 1.3650, but might grab some short term cash on updrafts.

Am also a buyer at convincing break of 1.3700.

Stop losses are VERY VERY important in this market, because you just don't know which end it is going to blow out.

I still believe in the weak $$$ argument.....the US $$$ Trillion debt hasn't magically disappeared....and it is still increasing EVERY month.




.
  • #545
  • Aug 10, 2007 6:09pm Aug 10, 2007 6:09pm
Quoting jacko
Have been in and out of this market today.
Got in at 1.3650-1.3655.
Market moved to 1.3701 (Feelin good !!)
Then dropped. (Not feelin so good !!!)
Trailing SL was at 1.3651 but, given the rapid rate of drop from 1.3690, I closed out at just above B/E. (Feelin disappointed !!!)
An hour later, egged on by Mark and Newbie and feeling a bit brave, I am back in at 1.3650 (but not feeling real confident !!!)....
Market is very choppy and volatile.

Four hourly trend line cracked at 1.3700 and market has been bouncing between 1.3700 and 1.3650 ever since.

Still happy to buy at 1.3650, but might grab some short term cash on updrafts.

Am also a buyer at convincing break of 1.3700.

Stop losses are VERY VERY important in this market, because you just don't know which end it is going to blow out.

I still believe in the weak $$$ argument.....the US $$$ Trillion debt hasn't magically disappeared....and it is still increasing EVERY month.




.
Jacko,

Thank you for this post. It is this detailing of your thoughts on how you apply your simple rules that is most valuable. From posts like this, readers can, over time, learn to see things as YOU do.

Posting after the fact is just fine. You don't have to post at the time of trade just for the sake of your reputation. You've already done that at the other forum, so post freely here as you desire. This is YOUR journal, and at Forex Factory, the owners of journals are the masters. If necessary, (as demonstrated by mod=smjones), any posts you don't want can be deleted.

You are the master of this ship, and it will sail only on the course you set, to allow you the freedom to help others in the way you deem best.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #546
  • Aug 11, 2007 8:15am Aug 11, 2007 8:15am
Hi Jacko,

I am a newbie and I want to tell you how much I appreciate the help you give to others in sharing your method and in continuing to share your thoughts.
I am indeed very new to this world of trading and over the recent months have lost nearly all my lifelong savings because I fooloishly traded without really knowing what I was doing. No sympathy for my stupidity. Anyway, the purpose for this post is to tell you that I came across your journal by chance and how since then, your method has helped me to start to get on top of things. I have still a long way to go to recover my loses but I am confident that by following your method, I will at least have an 'edge' when I trade.
I am still following your posts closely to continue to learn from you and other knowledgeable traders.
Many thanks to you !

Bakuli
  • #547
  • Aug 12, 2007 3:39am Aug 12, 2007 3:39am
Hi Jacko,

Please keep up the great job you are doing, your in put has tremendiously help a lot.

I hope to be trading like you in the near future.

Thanks
  • #548
  • Aug 12, 2007 8:03am Aug 12, 2007 8:03am
Quoting smjones
Time to do some house keeping... Come on guys, this is after all Jacko's JOURNAL thread so leave off all the how do I stuff. I am going to remove all of those posts.

Sorry about that Jacko. I hope we are back on track now...

Thanks
Hi smjones,

Thanks for cleaning up the thread.

I must admit that it wasn't causing me any problems, because I would just skim through and see if there was anything interesting that needed a reply.

However, I could also see that if someone wanted to read the "serious" stuff, then they had to wade through a bit of "newbie" questions that were making it a bit of a mess.

So, again, thanks for your actions. It is looking much cleaner. Maybe you need to put your cleaner through this thread periodically. Feel free to do so.

.
  • #549
  • Aug 12, 2007 8:06am Aug 12, 2007 8:06am
As Dial said, we all watch this thread pretty close, because you are such a valued contributor. Now that we know it is ok, we will continue..

Thanks again for the great info here.
  • #550
  • Aug 12, 2007 8:39am Aug 12, 2007 8:39am
EURO longs be careful. IMHO, E/U will be heading south towards 1.3560-1.3575 area. From where? I highly doubt Euro will break 1.3700-1.3715 resistance but even if it breaks 1.3750 should cap it. That will mark end of current correction and then e/u will begin its journey towards 1.40s. Also it is good opportunity to load up with longs.

Somebody shares this view?
  • #551
  • Aug 12, 2007 9:07am Aug 12, 2007 9:07am
Quoting diallist
Jacko,

Thank you for this post. It is this detailing of your thoughts on how you apply your simple rules that is most valuable. From posts like this, readers can, over time, learn to see things as YOU do.

Posting after the fact is just fine. You don't have to post at the time of trade just for the sake of your reputation. You've already done that at the other forum, so post freely here as you desire. This is YOUR journal, and at Forex Factory, the owners of journals are the masters. If necessary, (as demonstrated by mod=smjones), any posts you don't want can be deleted.

You are the master of this ship, and it will sail only on the course you set, to allow you the freedom to help others in the way you deem best.

Dial
Hi Diallist,

Thanks for your welcome remarks. As seen in the post above, I am quite happy to leave it to smjones (and any of the other moderators) to keep the thread in optimal condition so that it best serves the FF community.

I don't tend to post too much because I don't tend to change course very often. (I trend trade and tend to only trade in the one direction...long Euro...and would rather be "out of the market" than trading "short term against the trend").

By trading that way,
1. I can ride the long trends, like the 500 pips from 1.3300 to 1.3800 (Hugely profitable trade for me)

2. When it is range bound,like at the present time, I try to only buy at the bottom of where I believe it wants to go...then sell at the upper limits of the range (Currently, I still think that 1.3650 is the strong resistance point and will buy again if it goes back there on Monday ...which I think it will do. And 1.3700 is a nice sell point). Hopefully I can do this a couple more times before the market breaks...and breaks, hopefully, in an upward direction.

3. One thing that I WON"T do....is to short the Euro in this market.... much too risky for me... maybe if it punches solidly below 1.3600 I may consider having a re-think.



From a Fundamental aspect (the boring stuff):

To short the Euro is a hard-to -understand decision:

1. Trade Deficit is US Trillion + and growing. (July 07 was second highest monthly trade imbalance with China...it is just getting closer and closer to reckoning day...). It just keeps getting worse !!!

2. While the sub-prime mess has its tentacles into Europe, it is still, mostly, a US problem. This augurs badly for US $$$$ in the near term.

3. GWB is still spending like a drunken sailor on Iraq to attempt to improve his profile for History. (What a disaster of a President he has turned out to be.... easily the worst President in history !! ) And he has 18 months of his Presidency left !!


.
  • #552
  • Aug 12, 2007 2:09pm Aug 12, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting jacko
2. When it is range bound,like at the present time, I try to only buy at the bottom of where I believe it wants to go...then sell at the upper limits of the range (Currently, I still think that 1.3650 is the strong resistance point and will buy again if it goes back there on Monday ...which I think it will do. And 1.3700 is a nice sell point). Hopefully I can do this a couple more times before the market breaks...and breaks, hopefully, in an upward direction.



.
Thanks for this useful information. I was holding onto trades that I was up 200 pips on for euro, but I didnt sell even though it was a range bound market and it hit the top of the range. This will protect the extra 50 pips you lose with the trailing stop (by exiting early on top of the range).
Is that correct?
  • #553
  • Edited 8:27pm Aug 12, 2007 8:15pm | Edited 8:27pm
Quoting Xenjin
Thanks for this useful information. I was holding onto trades that I was up 200 pips on for euro, but I didnt sell even though it was a range bound market and it hit the top of the range. This will protect the extra 50 pips you lose with the trailing stop (by exiting early on top of the range).
Is that correct?

Hi Xenjin,

Yes you are correct. (Plus, don't kick yourself too hard...1. no-one knows at the start when a trend will range and 2. no-one knows how long it will range and 3. no-one knows when it will end).

The issue that then arises is, "How do I catch the trend again when it breaks out of the range?"

The answer is that you place a buy stop order at, say, 1.3750 and let it get picked up on the way out of break out.

You have still missed out on 50 pips ( 1.3750 - 1.3703 assuming that it is breaking out above the current range limit of 1.3703.) However, you are hoping for multiple ranging trades where you are collecting the 50 pips saved by selling at the top of the range. Also, you can bring your order closer to the ranging upper limit but you run the risk of "false break-outs". But that is a decision that you can make based on your risk profile. (Or sense of greed...LOL)

However, remember, very important....you make much, much more money from being in the trend so make sure that you have your orders set in place to buy above the range. Otherwise the market will break quickly and you will miss it. (Then you have all the psychology issues of 1. Kicking yourself for missing the break out and more importantly, 2. Not wanting to get back in because "you could have got in cheaper" )


.
  • #554
  • Aug 13, 2007 1:15am Aug 13, 2007 1:15am
Two pearls of wisdom from the master


Quoting jacko
Hi Diallist,

Thanks for your welcome remarks. As seen in the post above, I am quite happy to leave it to smjones (and any of the other moderators) to keep the thread in optimal condition so that it best serves the FF community.

I don't tend to post too much because I don't tend to change course very often. (I trend trade and tend to only trade in the one direction...long Euro...and would rather be "out of the market" than trading "short term against the trend").

By trading that way,
1. I can ride the long trends, like the 500 pips from 1.3300 to 1.3800 (Hugely profitable trade for me)

2. When it is range bound,like at the present time, I try to only buy at the bottom of where I believe it wants to go...then sell at the upper limits of the range (Currently, I still think that 1.3650 is the strong resistance point and will buy again if it goes back there on Monday ...which I think it will do. And 1.3700 is a nice sell point). Hopefully I can do this a couple more times before the market breaks...and breaks, hopefully, in an upward direction.

3. One thing that I WON"T do....is to short the Euro in this market.... much too risky for me... maybe if it punches solidly below 1.3600 I may consider having a re-think.



From a Fundamental aspect (the boring stuff):

To short the Euro is a hard-to -understand decision:

1. Trade Deficit is US Trillion + and growing. (July 07 was second highest monthly trade imbalance with China...it is just getting closer and closer to reckoning day...). It just keeps getting worse !!!

2. While the sub-prime mess has its tentacles into Europe, it is still, mostly, a US problem. This augurs badly for US $$$$ in the near term.

3. GWB is still spending like a drunken sailor on Iraq to attempt to improve his profile for History. (What a disaster of a President he has turned out to be.... easily the worst President in history !! ) And he has 18 months of his Presidency left !!


.
watch. Learn .then trade. make money.
  • #555
  • Edited 5:05am Aug 13, 2007 4:10am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting dramapips
EURO longs be careful. IMHO, E/U will be heading south towards 1.3560-1.3575 area. From where? I highly doubt Euro will break 1.3700-1.3715 resistance but even if it breaks 1.3750 should cap it. That will mark end of current correction and then e/u will begin its journey towards 1.40s. Also it is good opportunity to load up with longs.

Somebody shares this view?
Maybe price will go to the range of 1.3570 before move up. if, true, it's the best bargain price to load BUY!

just to share.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: target 13570.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #556
  • Aug 13, 2007 10:29am Aug 13, 2007 10:29am
First post here. Great stuff Jacko.
Isn't the attached chart valid in terms of waiting for the retrace to 50% and then buying?

Cheers
Colin.
Attached Image
Enter Signature
  • #557
  • Aug 13, 2007 11:13am Aug 13, 2007 11:13am
Quoting cologg
First post here. Great stuff Jacko.
Isn't the attached chart valid in terms of waiting for the retrace to 50% and then buying?

Cheers
Colin.
Hi cologg,

I am in at 1.3650. So I am currently underwater 25 pips. Came close when it dropped to 1.3605. (I thought I was a goner...).

But just letting the trade play itself out.

I am not feeling real confident about the trade but I have been in this situation before and some been have losses but some have turned around and went into profits. I am prepared to let this trade have till 1.3600 then its gone.

.
  • #558
  • Aug 13, 2007 12:27pm Aug 13, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting cologg
First post here. Great stuff Jacko.
Isn't the attached chart valid in terms of waiting for the retrace to 50% and then buying?

Cheers
Colin.
Hi cologg,

Yes, as I understand it, your assessment is correct; buy at the 50% retrace.

But, 50% is only one of the ways to enter. Jacko also enters at significant support, which is part of the reason for the 3650 buy. This trade is currently negative, BUT, there is a RTS (Resistance Turned Support) around 3608, which if price bounces off of it, may turn the trade around into a winner.

My understanding is that Jacko takes entries in the order they appear, so the 3650 buy would occur before the 50% buy.

JACKO!! If I'm wwwwrong <hehe>, then PLEASE correct me as I don't want to mislead anyone.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #559
  • Aug 13, 2007 12:50pm Aug 13, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting cologg
First post here. Great stuff Jacko.
Isn't the attached chart valid in terms of waiting for the retrace to 50% and then buying?

Cheers
Colin.
Hi cologg,

I have just re-read your post and realised that I hadn't answered your question properly. (Sorry but I was a bit distracted earlier).

Waiting for the retrace to 50% was certainly an option that I could have taken but I was thinking that 1.3650 would hold strong. If 1.3650 does hold strong (and I am not stopped out at 1.3600) then I have made the right decision.

If it blows through 1.3600, then I will have been wwwwwrong and i will then evaluate whether:
1. To go long again at 1.3550 (50% Fib)
2 Or decide if the trend has changed to the short side of the road.

Furthermore, I am a trader. My "business" is to trade. Waiting for the 50% retracement (and not trading until that happens) did not give me as much confidence as I had in trading at 1.3650.
If I am stopped out, then I can only look back and ask myself "Did I do the best trade, given all the information available to me at the time?" At the present time, I don't believe my trade was foolish.
Besides it may turn profitable, even though it is looking rather sick at the moment (29 pips underwater now).
However, this is Forex and it is a volatile market especially given the dramas being played out in the sub-prime markets in the last 48 trading hours.

We have set our game plan...we are now just playing the game out.

.
  • #560
  • Aug 13, 2007 12:56pm Aug 13, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting diallist
Hi cologg,

Yes, as I understand it, your assessment is correct; buy at the 50% retrace.

But, 50% is only one of the ways to enter. Jacko also enters at significant support, which is part of the reason for the 3650 buy. This trade is currently negative, BUT, there is a RTS (Resistance Turned Support) around 3608, which if price bounces off of it, may turn the trade around into a winner.

My understanding is that Jacko takes entries in the order they appear, so the 3650 buy would occur before the 50% buy.

JACKO!! If I'm wwwwrong <hehe>, then PLEASE correct me as I don't want to mislead anyone.
Hi diallist,

I have just seen this post...you must have posted it as I was writing mine (I am a VERY slow typist)....Also your response is much more succinct and to the point than my long winded response. Everything you have said is correct.

I am hoping that it bounces, but I am not really that confident that I am on a winner with this trade.

.
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