vsa with Malcolm

So looking at your weekly chart, the first two weeks of 2025 you have a 2 bar reversal, which is a SoS.

Then in April we have a massive down bar with climatic volume.

Keeping in mind we've already had a strength come in on the two bar reversal, what do you think happened on that climatic down bar?

Definitely buying. All the markets seem to have a clear shakeout in April for the initial tariff announcements. I'm already convinced that there's strength/accumulation across all timeframes, but as I lean more heavily on multi-timeframe analysis with longer timeframes, I am still working to find a balance between being too early on the Monthly/Weekly vs being too late on every other timeframe.

I suppose what I see as a lack of strong up bars outside of last week can also be classified as a solid accumulation campaign that is drawing to a close with last week's bar being a sign that buyers are coming in and having the largest up-bar volume in close to 9 months.

I've got an order in place now if yesterday's high gets taken out and starts running, but ideally the bar on the Daily is tested first though.

The formula that VSA follows is stopping volume, accumulation and finally markup. Professionals will aquire most of their position quietly during the accumulation phase. The climatic/stopping volume is just an effort to stop a move. The VSA logic is that, if theyre stopping a move it must be bullish.

So why are we seeing a climatic down bar there? The 2 bar reversal already accomplished the task of stopping the down move. If price is still bullish, then professionals would've continued to quietly accumulate their position until they were ready for the markup.

The climatic volume you see is an effort to cap price, to prevent price from going any higher. Its still bearish.

The strength that you keep seeing on the lows is buying, but it's buying coming from traders that are on the wrong side. If you're still dead set on buying wait for that high to be taken out, youre not going to miss the move. If it's bullish it's going to trend for YEARS.

AUDUSD Long

On July 30th we see climatic volume that stops the previous down move. A couple of days later on August 1st widespread up bar very high volume push price up and through the high of the climatic down bar, very bullish.

My entry I got impatient and finally jumped it, should've wait a few more hours for price to hit the 50%. Took a little profit as price went up, still holding long but we're seeing a bit of supply come in. But with the strength on July 30th and Aug 1st, I'd rather not be short.

Markets are trending, right?

One of the better videos I've seen explaining testing:

Still stalking bonds as a trade via TLT. Bonds declined since the above post but w/o conviction. Last week was a great illustration of the overall strength. Looking to potentially start a position @ resistance-turned-support:

No entry opportunity with TLT yet. I did trade this one and curious to hear others' perspective on it: Here's the Weekly chart for the big picture, and my bar-by-bar breakdown of the daily:

 

1. Climactic volume? Closes off the lows and support holds
2. Indecision with an inside bar, but support holds again which is positive
3. I would've called this an upthrust previously. Demand isn't present yet but now I also recognize the strength in the background @ 1 which means that the upthrust isn't in the right context just yet.
4. Closing on the lows but also on the lowest volume in a month. Sellers are suggesting they are tapped out and it's the bulls market to lose
5. Sells off yet manages to close above support. Buyers are defending the level
6. A second attempt lower also fails. Not a traditional test since the volume is not lower than the last two bars. Relative to #1, the volume has declined though, so it can be seen as a long-term test. This is where I entered
7. Strong proud up bar as a response. Good stuff
8. This bar is hard to read in the moment. I probably panicked a bit tbh, but held the position. Volume is below average in spite of the spread fwiw
9. Clear EvR bar, but also concerning re: "is supply still present" being that my stop isn't that far away
10. Given the volume on the last bar, price tests for supply at the lows before closing on its high. Extremely clear SoS. Volume is low but 60-70% of the bar can be seen as testing, so it's less of an issue
11. Even stronger up bar, which most importantly puts distance between the danger zone and initial price range. Not a marked volume increase tho...
12. This down bar has almost the same volume as 11, yet made less than half the progress. EvR means someone's buying here
13. (Pivotal bar) This bar shows some supply hitting support and flailing/failing
14. Supply dries up on the selloff. There's no interest in higher prices, but closing on the lows isn't ideal
15. Given the close, price continues lower and finds buyers at support, rallying to engulf the prior bar. False move lower -> fast move higher is a sign of absorption, so things are looking great IMO
16. Rejects the key support level again. Half the bar is below the prior close tho so it's a bit ambiguous in terms of sentiment
17. Test bar shows the lowest volume in a month. There's a lack of supply present
18. Inside bar as another test on an even narrower range. It's the bulls' market if they want it IMO as bears appear to have disappeared
19. Another false move lower -> fast move higher. I would've thought that the prior two testing bars would've cleared out supply but perhaps it's just smart money being dicks for maximum pain. The close is at the key resistance level so we're not out of the woods yet... let's see what happens next.
20. Supply came out here and price retraced ~70% of the last bar for testing and then rallied after absorbing the supply, closing at the high. Price appears to be absorbing the supply and grinding higher right?
21. Ambiguous bar here. Price rejects higher levels yet support holds and price closes off its lows
22. Inside bar w/ support holding and price closing off its lows again
23. Best close on the entire chart. Appears to be absorbing the supply as it grinds higher
24. Pretty strong rejection but not a lot of supply. Expecting a test -> continuation higher, or a selloff to resistance-turned-support @ 106.5

Here's the rest of the chart:


Curious if someone can point out some of the tells leading up to the selloff here? The areas that seem the most relevant in retrospect are:

1. The earning report on July 23rd as a clear line in the sand that was rejected by the last bar in the prior post (bar #24). The volume wasn't special, but the price action is an undeniable upthrust
2. #13 (aka pivotal bar) is the largest in approximately a month and was continued distribution from the Earnings Report. In the moment I had thought the supply was tested away via bars 17-20, but an alternative theory I now have is that the lack of conviction of these four bars might have been a tell.. the bears stepped aside for the first two test bars and then showed up when price tried to take advantage for the subsequent two bars. (I'm of mixed minds here because I don't know that repeated testing is a bad thing for most charts)

In retrospect, I am proud that I was confident in the price action and had the conviction to hold through the choppiness, but I also feel like I got burned by an 'obvious' signal to get-out.

I chalked it up to still trying to find the balance between these two ideas:

1. The background is King and its impact on the trend is undeniable
2. The background impact on the next few bars can be minimal/non-existent

OTOH, I feel like an area where I've improved is just the ability to see testing and responses to testing throughout price action. Previously I only saw testing in test bars which is only telling part of the story. I still can't make heads or tails out of 17-20 but bars like 4, 9, 10 and 15 all make more sense to me in a narrative of supply and demand.

NVDA

We in a massive bull run on stocks, you don't want to be short. But NVDA has been a market leader for some time, whats with the huge spreads and low volume?

Probably not the worst idea to slowly start stepping out.

Here is another one, Whirlpool isn't exactly a market leader.. but I would think a strong brand.

We keep seeing high volume down bars, but how is price reacting? It keeps falling and rejecting new highs. One thing I've come to learn when strength comes in, price doesn't hesitate to take out old highs.

The S&P500 has a similar (albeit less volatile) rally on declining volume. July and August had the lowest monthly volume since August 2021 too.

Microsoft
I'm seeing some distribution in Microsoft.

The daily is showing signs of a failing rally:

On the EvR bar, drilling down on the 1-minute chart I see ease of movement to jack up the price and then hit a wall at/near resistance. At ~$518 x 100k shares , that's +$50 million for each of those minutes. Hard to see anyone absorbing that kinda supply in this economy lol:


The weakness is showing up on the Weekly as well but has yet to make a real impact on the monthly chart, so I don't see myself jumping in for another few weeks:

Got in this morning @ prior resistance that ideally holds as support:

I am concerned about gaps as the underlying is volatile. I currently have a handful of March 2026 calls @ a $90 strike price.

(Loose) Fundamentals
TBH, this feels like a hedge against the independence of the Federal Reserve (and IMO indirectly the solvency of the United States ). My thinking is that Trump has already installed a current White House employee and is trying to get another one fired from the previously non-partisan Federal Reserve.

If he gets his way as he seems to be doing in droves at the moment, then it could spell gangbusters for interest rate cuts. The cost of money is going to plummet and people will borrow/invest more since they make less w/ it sidelined. Bonds (ie: TLT) appreciates in value as a result.

It would be great in the short-term (read: 1-3 years), but terrible in the grand scheme of things. There are a plethora of economies hollowed out from central banks that shifted towards extremely partisan actions (Zimbabwe, Venezuela, the US in the 70s, Germany during WWI, etc). When a central bank becomes partisan, it basically removes the brakes from the economy in the long run. For example a partisan Federal Reserve would be too scared to call for rate hikes to cool a hot economy during an election year, and so it is pedal to the metal at all times. Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

UJ long.

Some big news behind us with the rate cut on Sept. 17th

I didn't mark it on the chart but on Sept 19th, late in the Asian session/before London session you can see the buying. Price was quick to rise off that buying. My point is that if you see strength come in and price grinds sideways, go find something else.

This week is "shit or get off the pot" territory potential for my TLT position. It's a good sign seeing a squat/test bar on the weekly:


With that said, it's liable to be a volatile week so nothing's off the table There's a Tuesday deadline to avoid a governmental shutdown. A part of me thinks it can create a top for the equities markets, but I am getting ahead of what the charts are showing. The S&P 500 is still bullish so I'll have to just wait and read what smart money does.

This morning, a few plays on my watchlist gapped @ the open only to listlessly tread water on light volume. The narrative I was anticipating as a result was weakness in the background -> gap higher to trap traders -> lack of demand showing a short-term top has been reached. (I just googled it and Tom called it a 'No Demand @ a Market Top')

The story of the afternoon was stronger and led to a more respectable close for many charts. In spite of the FOMC meeting distribution (Sept 19th) on quite a few big name charts, the major US indices still seem relatively bullish, so I am walking back my interest in shorts for the time being.

Buuuuut tomorrow is going to be interesting.. It's the deadline for avoiding a government shutdown and it is the last day of September. Depending on the chart, a sell-off could leave a permanent bearish imprint on a monthly bar which makes the next months less bullish as a result. Here a good example:

Morgan Stanley
Bulls look in clear control on the monthly:



The Weekly is a bit more ambiguous though:


And the Daily is decidedly more bearish imo:


The monthly is King for me and it looks more marginally more bullish on most charts, but similar to MS, if tomorrow has a selloff and/or UHV, it could literally change the forecast overnight and make a retracement more probable. TBH tho, I'd anticipate 1-3 weeks of selling as the bulls test for supply and trap shorts before another push higher. That would be a healthy reaction to the waning volume these last few months.

GCad

Just following the trend.

hello sir.. if you don't mind, can i have the templet and the indicator for this that you are using for mt4.

The two things on that chart are:

1. A simple Fibonacci tool. Which is standard on any good trading software platform

2. Better Volume. I don't use mt4, but I have to imagine its a standard tool or can be easily downloaded from any number of places.

Hope that helps.

Some supply in the S&P today. We'll see how things play out. Was stalking shorts when the breakdown happened so fast that I only got 1/5 the size I wanted (MSTR) and completely missed XYZ. C'est la vie