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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,501
  • Jul 3, 2025 1:00pm Jul 3, 2025 1:00pm
Quoting Frag8383
The way he uses volume is more Wyckoff than VSA, in the sense that for him, strength comes on up bars and weakness on down bars. In VSA, it’s the other way around, and that’s one of the reasons why I think people find VSA difficult to grasp. We tend to think that every down bar with big volume is stopping volume. The way I do it is a mix of the two. I look for stopping volume, but then I look for Wyckoff signs of strength. I don’t enter if I don’t see Wyckoff strength or weakness. Thanks again, the video really helped. Kind regards.
The first two core principles of VSA are:

  1. Weakness, when it appears, usually appears on UP bars and;
  2. Strength, when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars.

Those two principles notwithstanding, there are concepts in VSA like absorption volume, pushing through supply/demand, and Gothcha' bars. Consequently, the correct application of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), would include the aforementioned mix.

Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,502
  • Jul 3, 2025 1:44pm Jul 3, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting 1odi
last week was good but this week so far is insane. only CL traded so far and a gold trade. {image} {image} {image}
I love have simple you have made trading!!!!
  • #36,503
  • Jul 3, 2025 1:47pm Jul 3, 2025 1:47pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} The first two core principles of VSA are: Weakness, when it appears, usually appears on UP bars and; Strength, when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars. Those two principles notwithstanding, there are concepts in VSA like absorption volume, pushing through supply/demand, and Gothcha' bars. Consequently, the correct application of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), would include the aforementioned mix.
I believe that Gothcha' bars is what wyckoff calls strength/weakness coming in

Kind regards
  • #36,504
  • Edited Jul 4, 2025 1:11am Jul 3, 2025 3:40pm | Edited Jul 4, 2025 1:11am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} I love have simple you have made trading!!!!
thank you, i dabbled with a lot of things trading related, from indicators to footprint charts, and there are a lot of strategies out there that work to be honest, but to me this is the perfect combo balancing win rate and risk/reward. also it allows me most of the times to see probabilities changing in real time and act accordingly.
i was looking for perfect strategy for many years but i realized a while back that nothing and no1 is perfect.
So i keep it simple, SOS/sow on a stop hunt, break of resistance/support which equates to effort vs result, and often times u get the buyers/sellers showing up again at that pullback..what i like even more is that it can even be traded as is, without other timeframes! but ofc i glance at hrly to get my bearings and mark up fibs, highs and lows for the day, week etc. it s verry simple, atleast 2 me. try it, the concepts i use are simple as well, can be clearly seen in the screenshots, and let me know what are your findings. i only trade this setup, ofc it s even better when it aligns with a htf fib etc but it doesn t have 2.Rinse and repeat.
no trades today btw, there was a potential trade on oil, took out high of current day but made a perfect resistence above with prev day high, so i skipped it.
news often present this setup that i trade since it s all a big sham, but i m happy with 4 trades this week so far, even less would ve been ok as i try to aim for quality rather then quantity and just scale in size. cheers
  • #36,505
  • Jul 15, 2025 6:10pm Jul 15, 2025 6:10pm
I love the JPY crosses, they can trend better than any other pair.

Look at that daily chart, obvious trend with Tom's words "Trends last longer than you think."

Stopping volume during Asia, the time of day is a big indicator on the seriousness of the volume. Followed by tests galore!
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  • #36,506
  • Jul 15, 2025 6:17pm Jul 15, 2025 6:17pm
EURUSD

1. Strength comes in.
2. Sellers hit price hard as price tries to rally above previous top.
3. Price breaks below the days highest volume bar.
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  • #36,507
  • Jul 15, 2025 11:37pm Jul 15, 2025 11:37pm
Quoting Anotan
I love the JPY crosses, they can trend better than any other pair. Look at that daily chart, obvious trend with Tom's words "Trends last longer than you think." Stopping volume during Asia, the time of day is a big indicator on the seriousness of the volume. Followed by tests galore! {image}
Just riding the gravy train.
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  • #36,508
  • Jul 16, 2025 5:20am Jul 16, 2025 5:20am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Just riding the gravy train. {image}
A, please take as much as you want, then unleash this pair, I want her down.
  • #36,509
  • Jul 16, 2025 11:31am Jul 16, 2025 11:31am
Up we go?

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  • #36,510
  • Jul 16, 2025 11:03pm Jul 16, 2025 11:03pm
Quoting Anotan
Up we go? {image}
Nice, my entry was later, after the NS on H1.
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  • #36,511
  • Jul 17, 2025 12:54am Jul 17, 2025 12:54am
The only thing that catches my eye today is GU.

Daily chart, a few days ago we saw GBP drop on very low volume.

On Jul 15th we see a bit of strength on H1 chart, yesterday we see this big massive up bar with potential sellers. I'm not convinced it was weakness due to the lack of sellers on Daily. Not sure where I'll take this yet, ideally the 100% but also we can't ignore the 50%.
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  • #36,512
  • Jul 24, 2025 3:14pm Jul 24, 2025 3:14pm
GBPUSD shorts anyone??

Daily chart, price tried to rally but now we're seeing weakness in the form of a 2 bar reversal. Normally when I trade daily signs of weakness, I tend to only open trades below the daily open (above the daily open for daily signs of strength). If you're actively watching charts, start small around the low/mid point of the previous day highest volume and add to your position as price falls below the daily open.
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  • #36,513
  • Jul 28, 2025 5:50pm Jul 28, 2025 5:50pm
EURJPY Short.

Its only a 1/2 position due to the high volume down bar on July 25th.

But Daily we have an up bar poking its head up into new highs on low volume. July 24th there is some selling, its easy to over look this bar because of how price kept pushing up, but what caught my eye is on the July 25th there is a 3 bar reversal with that low volume up at the top of the 3 bar reversal.

I keep hearing through the media that the dollar is weak, granted I don't look at DXY, but USD seems pretty strong on forex pairs!
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  • #36,514
  • Jul 29, 2025 2:28am Jul 29, 2025 2:28am
Quoting Anotan
EURJPY Short. Its only a 1/2 position due to the high volume down bar on July 25th. But Daily we have an up bar poking its head up into new highs on low volume. July 24th there is some selling, its easy to over look this bar because of how price kept pushing up, but what caught my eye is on the July 25th there is a 3 bar reversal with that low volume up at the top of the 3 bar reversal. I keep hearing through the media that the dollar is weak, granted I don't look at DXY, but USD seems pretty strong on forex pairs! {image}
I am glad that we are on the same page.
Wish you luck, A.!
  • #36,515
  • Jul 30, 2025 9:04am Jul 30, 2025 9:04am
Hope everyone's doing well.

I know the focus it typically forex but saw this chart and thought it might have long-term potential. I'm not a bond trader personally, but the VSA principles seem clear as day and the sector/instrument might be worth paying attention to for the foreseeable future:
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Barring any crazy price action today/tomorrow, the monthly bar will have the lowest volume since January and show three testing bars in a row. Timing will likely be tricky but I'm drilling down to the shorter timeframes to find an entry.
  • #36,516
  • Jul 31, 2025 3:31am Jul 31, 2025 3:31am
Quoting Macallik
Hope everyone's doing well. I know the focus it typically forex but saw this chart and thought it might have long-term potential. I'm not a bond trader personally, but the VSA principles seem clear as day and the sector/instrument might be worth paying attention to for the foreseeable future: {image} Barring any crazy price action today/tomorrow, the monthly bar will have the lowest volume since January and show three testing bars in a row. Timing will likely be tricky but I'm drilling down to the shorter timeframes to find an entry.
I'm not a fan of longs.

The elephant in the room is that price hasn't made a higher high in 4-5 years.

Ideally when you see a SoS you want to see a rally then come back down and test the strength then finally moving up and not returning to thr initial strength.

In this case we have our SoS, price comes back and tests it on high volume and fails to break the previous high. After failing to break the high, price is just churning sideways.
  • #36,517
  • Jul 31, 2025 4:53am Jul 31, 2025 4:53am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I'm not a fan of longs. The elephant in the room is that price hasn't made a higher high in 4-5 years. Ideally when you see a SoS you want to see a rally then come back down and test the strength then finally moving up and not returning to thr initial strength. In this case we have our SoS, price comes back and tests it on high volume and fails to break the previous high. After failing to break the high, price is just churning sideways.
Now that you talk about price making a higher high after sos, which I agree and is what I look for, but is very frustrating when all the conditions meet but the price breaks and never returns, I see a lot and is really frustrating.

And if you enter before the break it looks very good when it works but many more times fail, so is better to look for the break.

Anyone has any tricks for the price no returning?

Do you guys look at 50% retracement?

Break Retest?

Thanks
Kind Regards
  • #36,518
  • Jul 31, 2025 7:04am Jul 31, 2025 7:04am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Now that you talk about price making a higher high after sos, which I agree and is what I look for, but is very frustrating when all the conditions meet but the price breaks and never returns, I see a lot and is really frustrating. And if you enter before the break it looks very good when it works but many more times fail, so is better to look for the break. Anyone has any tricks for the price no returning? Do you guys look at 50% retracement? Break Retest? Thanks Kind Regards
Yeah it does happen, price doesn't return or sometimes you don't recognize the setup until price starts moving away.

Yesterday EU is a good example.

We have a sign of weakness, we want to see price break down. It doesn't have to make a lower low, but I do want to see at least one bar that is completely below our weakness zone. In this setup price breaks below, but all of the bars are still touching the zone. Also I like my entries around the 50%, you miss some setups, but those 50% entries have great RR and less pips risked on bad trades. Here on this example we don't get that 50% touch either . Also with this setup you might have been bullish with that little shakeout behind our SoW.

Price starts moving down and away from our SoW without us, or even even if you do have a position and you want to add as price moves your way, there are two entries I use. My favorite are head fakes, you will never have a price move that doesn't have at least one head fake. Enter as price pops above the shakeout bar, close if you have a full bar above the shakeout bar. Second entries are pull backs from absorption bars, absorption bar will be wide spread and mostly body with increasing volume.. Sell the 50%.
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  • #36,519
  • Jul 31, 2025 3:20pm Jul 31, 2025 3:20pm
Strong USD...

Really just following the trend at this point.
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  • #36,520
  • Edited 1:10pm Aug 6, 2025 12:51pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quote
Timing will likely be tricky but I'm drilling down to the shorter timeframes to find an entry.
Here's the last month of data on the hourly. It looks pretty one-sided re: directional bias and today's price action looks aggressively bullish (but is still ongoing):
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Here is the Daily, which shows promise but I think largely depends on the response for the next few days given today's attempted sell-off today. From there, I'll have a better idea whether to put it on the backburner or start aggressively looking for a position:
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Here's the weekly:
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  1. To Anotan's point, similar to the Monthly, there still aren't HHs and HLs
  2. Last week was the most bullish bar since April. OTOH, altho there's plenty of hidden strength, there's only one bull bar closing on its highs in +3 months
  3. Last week's bar also suggested that supply is still present. Altho the current bar is finding support away from the lows, the current bar still rejected the resistance level.

IIRC there are two trading sayings that come to mind. First is to trust the long-term charts as it wins out the most on average, and the other saying is that reversals become evident first on the short-term timeframe, and then slowly radiate to the larger timeframes lol.

The short-term timeframe definitely has me antsy, but barring unmistakable strength and/or testing tomorrow, I think I will begrudgingly sit my ass down and wait for more strength. My one/main concern is that this takes off in a hurry and goes w/o me because my limited understanding is that bonds are be the sleeping giant that impacts all other financial instruments, and so the level of accumulation on the monthly is a sign of something huge about to change.

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