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  • #801
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:22pm Mar 6, 2025 2:22pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Update on my previous post/chart then I promise to Bob post on the new thread MyBob took a nice short around 4:30pm ish UK time MY slot is 2:30pm to around 4:30pm - ish UK time . Can't be this good for too long surely otherwise I will end up a rich old git {image}
There will be days like this and there will be days that chop and slop around the MeBob as machine says. That is where money management and perhaps a few price action rules are needed in order to build a complete trading plan around it.

Offered up 20+ points up today and about 60 points down. If anyone caught all 80 of them I'd like to shake your hand!

The nice thing about this is you don't need to catch them all. You do need to define what you are going for in terms take profit or use of a trailing stop.

After that, the roulette mindset comes into play: Accept the risk and stick with your plan. Repeat until rich, you old git!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #802
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:42pm Mar 6, 2025 2:42pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} There will be days like this and there will be days that chop and slop around the MeBob as machine says. That is where money management and perhaps a few price action rules are needed in order to build a complete trading plan around it. Offered up 20+ points up today and about 60 points down. If anyone caught all 80 of them I'd like to shake your hand! The nice thing about this is you don't need to catch them all. You do need to define what you are going for in terms take profit or use of a trailing stop. After that, the roulette mindset...
Precisely! You can't catch them all, this is fore sure true. We must brainstorm methods to mitigate chop and slop days, and then maybe present them to the official thread.

I liked your concept; close half your position at TP, and let the rest run. However, are we sure that the running profit will be enough mitigation on the account when your winners are inherently smaller than losers now.

Unfortunately, on winners that don't go all the way you'll make less with this method BUT ATLEAST you'll make SOME profit. This all really depends on how efficient the running positions are.

Still brain storming other methodology. I'm trying to steer away from the Martingale-ish concept that was proposed by the original author, but it does seem nice.

Let's get some input
  • #803
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:51pm Mar 6, 2025 2:51pm
Quoting MachineLearn
{quote} I'm trying to steer away from the Martingale-ish concept that was proposed by the original author, but it does seem nice. Let's get some input
Also, I am not at all sure the Martingaling was at the suggestion of the original creator. I think that might have been Tom Hougaard editorializing his own take on that aspect. I used to watch some of his telegram live streams, and I know he did at times trade larger when trying to come from behind than he was trading when he got behind to begin with.

To me, Martingaling is very nearly a form of Tilt. Perhaps it is pre-Tilt. But imo it is a dangerous practice. And if one adopts the roulette mindset, it is completely unnecessary. If your method has an edge, it will bail itself out of any drawdown so long as you simply remain patient and take only the set ups it gives you. At least, that's my story and I'm sticking to it!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #804
  • Mar 6, 2025 2:55pm Mar 6, 2025 2:55pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Also, I am not at all sure the Martingaling was at the suggestion of the original creator. I think that might have been Tom Hougaard editorializing his own take on that aspect. I used to watch some of his telegram live streams, and I know he did at times trade larger when trying to come from behind than he was trading when he got behind to begin with. To me, Martingaling is very nearly a form of Tilt. Perhaps it is pre-Tilt. But imo it is a dangerous practice. And if one adopts the roulette mindset, it is completely unnecessary. If your...
I agree. It's officially out of my head

It's a crutch for a system with no edge.
  • #805
  • Mar 6, 2025 3:15pm Mar 6, 2025 3:15pm
Theorizing

The first trade starts at 1:1. If it wins, the next trade stays the same. But if it loses, the risk stays the same while the reward target increases—so the next trade moves to 1:2. If that trade also loses, the reward target moves to 1:3, and so on. (We could add additional rules on very large m e b o b ranges where a one to three or something of that nature would be unrealistic)

This way, account risk remains steady, but winning trades have the potential to recover previous losses more efficiently. It adds a built-in mitigation mechanism while keeping the strategy structured and controlled

This approach also makes logical sense because if price is repeatedly hitting stop losses within the MEBOB range, it often signals a period of accumulation, compression, or a squeeze. Many technical frameworks suggest that this kind of price action precedes a breakout. So, extending the profit target after consecutive losses aligns with the natural tendency for price to eventually surge in one direction, making it a rational adjustment rather than a random one.


Thoughts?
  • #806
  • Mar 6, 2025 3:26pm Mar 6, 2025 3:26pm
Quoting MachineLearn
Theorizing The first trade starts at 1:1. If it wins, the next trade stays the same. But if it loses, the risk stays the same while the reward target increases—so the next trade moves to 1:2. If that trade also loses, the reward target moves to 1:3, and so on. (We could add additional rules on very large m e b o b ranges where a one to three or something of that nature would be unrealistic) This way, account risk remains steady, but winning trades have the potential to recover previous losses more efficiently. It adds a built-in mitigation mechanism...
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  • #807
  • Edited 8:45pm Mar 9, 2025 10:32am | Edited 8:45pm

Thoughts on the "Holy Grail."



Many of us who trade in hopes of profit refer to the search for "the Holy Grail of trading." I always imagined that what we mean is the search for a system that has no losing trades, and where our winning trades have little to no drawdown before price deliberately and promptly marches steadily towards out profit target. Of course, such a system or method does not exist, and yet many of us continue to behave in ways along our journey that suggests that subconsciouly we have yet to let go of the belief that such a grail may indeed be out there. That is why we systems hop, jump from forex pair to forex pair and futures contract to futures contract, chasing penny stocks one month and options on blue chips the next. We are seekers of a fictional, non-existent grail, even as we publicly joke together about the folly of such a chase.

You may, therefore, be surprised to hear that for some reason, I had the thought this week that the Holy Grail, properly understood, just might exist. And the more I thought about it, I concluded that the Holy Grail of trading, properly understood, does exist.

The Holy Grail.

Properly understood.

What do I Mean by "properly understood?"

Well, I mean that if instead of looking for a system that never loses, we instead focus on identifying a system that wins at least 55% of the time and offers at least a $1 profit for $1 risked and lost, and so long as it is a system with which we feel comfortable and confidant and that we are able to trade its signals without hesitation or fear, and we always maintain a carefree state of mind while working our craft, we will have found the Holy Grail.

For some, this is perhaps not as satisfying as what finding never-lose wall street money machine would be, but for most, this thought should be confidence inspiring and exciting. We no longer need to find a method that never loses. We merely need to find a method with the barest of edges. Then, we simply need to train ourselves to accept that our barest of edges will lose more than we would have liked, but that the end result of taking all the signals, hour after hour, day after day, week and week, month after month, and year after year, will be that we will make a lot of money and live a life very few can afford.

The hardest part of the Holy Grail is that last part: Training ourselves to accept the losses as they come and keep trading our method without hesitation and without fear of losing. I insist that there are many methods and systems available to traders right here at FF that will provide at a minimum the barest of mathematical edges required to make a lot of money. All you need in order to turn it into your own personal Holy Grail is your own version of the roulette epiphany. You need to find that spark that will finally persuade you that the reason you are not a consistently profitable trader is that you are the problem. Since the only thing we can truly control is ourselves, our thoughts, our actions, our beliefs, that also means that not only is each of the problem, we each also hold within out control the solution.

I am the problem, and I am the solution.

You are the problem, and you are the solution.

The Holy Grail is closer than any of us believed. It is hidden, dormant, inside each and every one of us. The key to awakening it is within the individual control of each and every one of us.

Now that you have the map, your quest is closer to completion than it has ever been. The grail is before you. You need merely reach out and grasp it!

Good luck to all!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #808
  • Edited 8:46pm Mar 9, 2025 10:49am | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} What a refreshing break from social media that was! And productive too! 5 trades deep into a 10 trade exercise on NQ using my preferred methodology, which I will henceforth simply call the "Gonzalo" method, in honor of Gonzalo Garci-Pelayo {image} MAE = max adverse excursion (the most the trade went against the position) MFE = max favorable excursion (the most the trade went in favor of the position before hitting a trailing stop)
The 10 trade exercise became an 11 trade exercise due to a very brief slip into my old ways. Had I stuck to my rules 100% I would have had one loss showing on this spreadsheet. This time I got lucky. There was another day later this week where if I had similarly slipped, I'd likely have recorded two BIG losses in one session.

Sticking to the rules is the Holy Grail, imo.

The one change I made, and it is a change I decided to make before the trading week began, was that my take profit would be fixed at +50 points, or $1000 per contract. An incredible run and it is not going to remain the norm. Every method with an edge will have outlier winning streaks. Eventually I'll experience an outlier losing streak. The difference between the two will be that because of the mathematical edge the method has, it is nearly impossible for it to have 10 losing trades in a row. In fact, there is only a 0.379% chance of 10 losses in a row. So, while it is low, it is never 0%. But nonetheless, extremely unlikely.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #809
  • Mar 9, 2025 1:33pm Mar 9, 2025 1:33pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} The 10 trade exercise became and 11 trade exercise due to a very brief slip into my old ways. Had I stuck to my rules 100% I would have had one loss showing on this spreadsheet. This time I got lucky. There was another day later this week where if I had similarly slipped, I'd likely have recorded two BIG losses in one session. Sticking to the rules is the Holy Grail, imo. The one change I made, and it is a change I decided to make before the trading week began, was that my take profit would be fixed at +50 points, or $1000 per contract....
Great!

But I’ve to ask what’s your stoploss on each trade?

While the takeprofit is fixed, there doesn’t appear to be a pattern for the stoplosses.

Reviewing the trade log you posted, it appears you let your positions run against you until it’s finally in profit NO?
  • #810
  • Mar 9, 2025 2:15pm Mar 9, 2025 2:15pm
Quoting Evasparkling
{quote} Great! But I’ve to ask what’s your stoploss on each trade? While the takeprofit is fixed, there doesn’t appear to be a pattern for the stoplosses. Reviewing the trade log you posted, it appears you let your positions run against you until it’s finally in profit NO?
The stop loss is listed in the spreadsheet. It is a most recent swing high or low depending upon whether the entry is long or short.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #811
  • Mar 9, 2025 5:56pm Mar 9, 2025 5:56pm
Hi VV,

Mate I mean to drop by every so often to wish you well in your journey & your project.
But sometimes I just close shop over my way, after Asia/London and just call it a night for myself and relax.

I am wishing you well always in your adventure sir
  • #812
  • Mar 9, 2025 7:16pm Mar 9, 2025 7:16pm
Quoting TimeTells
Hi VV, Mate I mean to drop by every so often to wish you well in your journey & your project. But sometimes I just close shop over my way, after Asia/London and just call it a night for myself and relax. I am wishing you well always in your adventure sir
Thanks TT! I greatly appreciate you and your contributions to FF ... Trade Well, Be Well!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #813
  • Mar 10, 2025 11:08am Mar 10, 2025 11:08am
Quoting vidvad
Thoughts on the "Holy Grail." Many of us who trade in hopes of profit refer to the search for "the Holy Grail of trading." I always imagined that what we mean is the search for a system that has no losing trades, and where our winning trades have little to no drawdown before price deliberately and promptly marches steadily towards out profit target. Of course, such a system or method does not exist, and yet many of us continue to behave in ways along our journey that suggests that subconsciouly we have yet to let go of the belief that such a grail...
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #814
  • Edited 3:30pm Mar 10, 2025 1:57pm | Edited 3:30pm
NQ Gonzalo continues with a new set of ten days of trading. One down, nine to go. Just an incredible run of profits on this set up. Today price dropped right to my +50 point take profit, and then retraced all the way back to a -31 drawdown. I was out of the market with my profit at that point. It is noteworthy though because I'd have had a tough time holding through that sort of open profit give back. Had I been stopped out for a small profit or breakeven, I'd have had a real hard time getting back in as price again dropped through my entry. Although price had a max favorable excursion before a true trailing stop loss would have flattened the position, I doubt I'd have been able to hold it. That is why 2:1 and 3:1 profit to loss ratios might sound good, but for some of us, myself included, a .5 to 1 profit to loss might actually make me more money.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #815
  • Mar 11, 2025 9:07am Mar 11, 2025 9:07am
The NQ Gonzalo win streak continues.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #816
  • Mar 11, 2025 4:37pm Mar 11, 2025 4:37pm
Quoting dokopy
{quote} Greetings from Nazi murderers do not belong on these pages.
Did you vote for Fico and do you love Putin?
  • #817
  • Mar 25, 2025 6:50pm Mar 25, 2025 6:50pm
It's been a day of nostalgia for me. I've been going back through my many versions of the rockypoint renko HA method that I "concocted" from June 2022, which is when I started following his thread, just about until I had the roulette epiphany at which point I abandoned indicators and exotic price bars for more basic price action approaches.

One of the my favorites was one I used toward the end of the rocky trading picture show, which was a mash up of his two threads: The ichimoku with range bars and the heiken ashi with renko.

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Some of the most elegant and tantalizing charts I've ever seen were created by rocky.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #818
  • Mar 27, 2025 2:34pm Mar 27, 2025 2:34pm
This is where my FF journey began. Without rocky, I'd have never become a member.

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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #819
  • Aug 1, 2025 4:13pm Aug 1, 2025 4:13pm
Quoting vidvad
{image} I'm entering 2025 as confident as I have ever been that I have all the tools I need to become the consistently profitable trader I've always strived to become. If I fail, I will have only myself to blame. An older, wiser, much more successful trader whom I had "met" at another forum several years ago once told me that I will be unlikely to succeed at this trading business until I understood how the following message applied to me: "I am the problem. I am the solution." Like so many other trading aphorisms and cliches, I gave lip service...
It has taken 7 months of this year 2025. However, my confidence was spot on. I know where I'm going, because I have a trading plan that will get me there so long as I follow my rules. I am trading MES/ES, MYM/YM, and MNQ/NQ. I am trading MES/ES using a 20 minute fixed bar strategy. I am trading MYM/YM using a 4 hour fixed bar strategy. I am trading the NQ using an M30 fixed bar strategy AND a five minute REVERSAL bar strategy.

I'm entering 2025 as confident as I have ever been that I have all the tools I need to become the consistently profitable trader I've always strived to become.

If I fail, I will have only myself to blame.

An older, wiser, much more successful trader whom I had "met" at another forum several years ago once told me that I will be unlikely to succeed at this trading business until I understood how the following message applied to me: "I am the problem. I am the solution."

Like so many other trading aphorisms and cliches, I gave lip service to understanding and accepting them.

I had lied to myself for so long. The roulette epiphany was the scales falling from my eyes.

"I was blind, but now I see."

And what do I see?

I see that "I am the problem. And I am the solution."
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #820
  • Aug 6, 2025 8:10am Aug 6, 2025 8:10am
"I'm a green rat. That means I only go long. Some people are red rats. That means they only go short. And if you go go both long and short you're a Yale student." lol

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