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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #6,541
  • Edited 1:32pm Aug 11, 2007 11:24am | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting karmostaji
Pretty interesting stuff..

DOW - Weekly chart

  1. It is definitely in an uptrend channel, it has bounced off the lower trendline once, will it bounce twice??

The daily charts gets even more interesting..

  1. The price closed 'right on' the 38.2% fibo level, will price go back test the 23.6 or will it go lower to the 50.0-61.8 and touch the trendline then come back?? we will know next week

My chart is a little different. Same observation.
Confluences of 50.0 fib level (draw point at 3/05/07), Linear Regression channel (7/18/06 start of the uptrend from the weekly) and 150 EMA. Could retest this area.
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #6,542
  • Aug 11, 2007 11:27am Aug 11, 2007 11:27am
Better Chart
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #6,543
  • Aug 11, 2007 11:47am Aug 11, 2007 11:47am
GBPJPY

Daily

Heavy S/R at 239.60ish level & 38.2. 150 ema acting as support. 50.0 fib bounce. Should be an interesting week.

Jim
Attached Image
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #6,544
  • Aug 11, 2007 12:35pm Aug 11, 2007 12:35pm
VT GBPJPY Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VT GBPJPY.gif Size: 31 KB
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #6,545
  • Aug 11, 2007 5:37pm Aug 11, 2007 5:37pm
The market can go either way, but I'm a bear with a target of 232.50 before we continue upwards.. It may take days/weeks I don't know, but I believe market should go there first before we head to 260 area

This is a medium/long term analysis, don't go shorting now and lose all your account!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,546
  • Aug 11, 2007 6:03pm Aug 11, 2007 6:03pm
There are some excellent 'Fibonacci Retracement Tutorials' videos on youtube, you guys should check it out..

here's one I really enjoyed
Inserted Video
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,547
  • Aug 11, 2007 6:21pm Aug 11, 2007 6:21pm
After hours and hours of thinking and analyzing this crazy pair, I think we are in downtrend for the short-term, but uptrend in the long-term..

First of all on my 4H chart, we are in a nice downtrend channel. After we made the low of 237.58 on 1st of August, retracement started, price retraced close to the 50.0% as you can see in the chart, on the 10th of August which is yesterday GJ made a new low, which tells me we are going to continue the downtrend.

Price looks like to be heading back to the upper trendline + 38.2%, we will have to wait and see but I believe we are in a downtrend and we are heading towards 232.50 (138.2% Fibo) area..

Remember, I could be totally wrong

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/2040/gjfa5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #6,548
  • Edited 6:50pm Aug 11, 2007 6:32pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting fourxtrader
"A"
Would you be willing to share what these common errors / traps were that drew you into those lower ratio trades. With your discipline, if it happened to you, imagine what we are facing.

Thanks for all that you do
HI doc,
Before I started this thread I only spent 2-3 hours a day front of my computer. Now I spend almost 15-18 hours front of my computer. This is the single biggest reason for all those bad trades.
When I find a trade according to my strategy, I place my SL & TP and walk away from my computer for next 4-6 hours. In the past when I come back to check the trade, 90% of the time it's a pleasant surprise. Now that I spend more time on my computer the more human emotions and greed come in to play. This is the simplest way to explain. over 21 trades in last three weeks!! Thats way more trades than my trading plan allows me to do.

The retracemnt trade which I did @ the London start yesterday was something I would have never done in the past. Going against the trend is not part my strategy. But ... I did it, because I was bored starring at the price action on my screen and the result was I lost.

Last Friday during the Asian session I saw a weekly support line sitting @ 236.86. I placed a Buy limit order at that level during the Tokyo open. At that time the pair had done over 400 pips without a retracement and there was no way it could have broken the weekly support successfully. When I woke up in the middle of the night I found out the order was +370pips profit.
As you all know I didn't trade on Friday London onwards because the pair refused to go for the retreacemnt after 400+ pips rally down and kept going down.When that happens you know it doesn't seem right. So I decided to stay away from the market for the rest of the day.


But if I was watching every single move of that dip, I may have taken that buy order off may be panicking my self or DOW is down or because it's Friday night or what ever the reason.

I have found that the more time I spend front of my computer, the more risks and bad trades I take. After all we all are humans The lucky once realize these bad trading habits when it's not too late and the unlucky once realize these when it's little too late.
  • #6,549
  • Aug 11, 2007 6:48pm Aug 11, 2007 6:48pm
Quoting mktjong
I noticed that the chart on Sunday could give many false indications, do you experience that, Aus? Quite a lot of traders stay away the Sunday trade. How do you cope with it?
Thanks Aus.
Hi mktjong,
You got a very good point. Specially when the pair is on a selling mood you see wild weekend moves. I take the trade if and when the price cover the weekend gap. 95% for the time pair covers the weekend gap and that will be the best time to enter if your indicators shows a good trade. Usually the weekend gap retracement will be completed by London session
  • #6,550
  • Aug 11, 2007 7:27pm Aug 11, 2007 7:27pm
got a question for you guys. how can we track the dow through mt4 and have live feed? thanks
  • #6,551
  • Aug 11, 2007 7:43pm Aug 11, 2007 7:43pm
Quoting treadline
got a question for you guys. how can we track the dow through mt4 and have live feed? thanks
i use north finance mt4, it has the djia right in the symbols.
  • #6,552
  • Aug 11, 2007 7:51pm Aug 11, 2007 7:51pm
Quoting sdot
i use north finance mt4, it has the djia right in the symbols.
thanks sdot will check it out.
  • #6,553
  • Aug 11, 2007 8:08pm Aug 11, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting sdot
i use north finance mt4, it has the djia right in the symbols.

i dont see it on the demo account. maybe its because the dow is closed will look at it on monday.
  • #6,554
  • Aug 11, 2007 8:22pm Aug 11, 2007 8:22pm
Quoting treadline
i dont see it on the demo account. maybe its because the dow is closed will look at it on monday.
it doesnt show up by default. you have to right click the 'market watch' window (the box that shows the prices for all the pairs) and choose 'symbols'.
Then from there you have to expand 'indexes' and show the 'DJI'

here's a screenshot:

http://i13.tinypic.com/5yjd8cm.jpg
  • #6,555
  • Aug 11, 2007 8:50pm Aug 11, 2007 8:50pm
Quoting treadline
you are sooo right on. this happens to me all the time. its like how in the hell can i time the market to go against me everytime i buy or sell. it is like 100% of the time im wrong when my indicators tell me to buy or sell. but i managed to make money because i have sound MM. there was a trade i make with the g/u last week when it was going up then as soon as i click the buy botton it goes against me. i closed the trade because it was heading lower because of fear. but after a day it went back up past my open trade. im glad that im not alone in this situation. i had to check my demo account on oanda to see if my broker was messing with me. but it all checked out ok. im trading live account but i have a demo with oanda to see if my broker will screw me. im with interbankfx. im comparing their prices all the time with oanda to make sure.
you know you need a break when your scrolling through the tv channel guide and your feeling anxious watching the numbers decrease!
Bring It...
  • #6,556
  • Aug 11, 2007 8:58pm Aug 11, 2007 8:58pm
Quoting sdot
it doesnt show up by default. you have to right click the 'market watch' window (the box that shows the prices for all the pairs) and choose 'symbols'.
Then from there you have to expand 'indexes' and show the 'DJI'

here's a screenshot:

http://i13.tinypic.com/5yjd8cm.jpg

thank you for the help.
  • #6,557
  • Aug 11, 2007 9:53pm Aug 11, 2007 9:53pm
Quoting jarroo
GBPJPY

Daily

Heavy S/R at 239.60ish level & 38.2. 150 ema acting as support. 50.0 fib bounce. Should be an interesting week.

Jim

Pull up a VT weekly chart and look at 1/22/07 and1/29/07. It bounced down off this area of resistance, retraced for 4 months before pushing up and through. Now we come back to this former resistance level and it becomes an area of support. Three weeks now we have rested on this level without closing below. Is this the end of the retracement.

I have a question to all TA traders, what weight does this historical S/R have on the analysis? Do you go long or short from here or wait? How about fundamental traders? Who has the greater strength... a battle between the greed of carry trades and the fears of risk aversion will tell the tale and move this one way or the other.

I'm not sure this VT weekly price chart is pasted below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/Image1.gif
  • #6,558
  • Aug 11, 2007 10:34pm Aug 11, 2007 10:34pm
Here's a fundamental reason for the comparable moves between the yen pairs and the dow.

New York (Reuters), August 10

"Recently, the Japanese currency has slipped when equity
markets rose because investors could borrow in low-yielding yen
to finance purchases of other risky assets. When stocks slid,
the yen firmed as investors unwound those carry trades and
bought back yen."
  • #6,559
  • Edited Aug 12, 2007 8:44am Aug 11, 2007 10:59pm | Edited Aug 12, 2007 8:44am
We are in a 1500 pip retracement (pause)... (7/20/07 - 8/10/07)
after a 3,000 pip climb... (3/06/07 - 7/20/07)
following a 2,000 pip retracement (pause)... (1/23/07 - 3/06/07)
preceeded by a 4,000 pip assension... (1/19/06 - 1/23/07)

Of course we could go way back and see some historic highs....
527.27 (2/25/80)
and historic lows....
129.21 (4/17/95)

See the patterns and profit accordingly... we are trend traders,

and I am....

sleepinginadumpster
  • #6,560
  • Aug 11, 2007 11:12pm Aug 11, 2007 11:12pm
Here's an excerpt from an e-mail I recieved from a friend I in Toronto I highly respect who is really into fundamentals and world market demographics....


To add to market volatility across ALL of the USD/JPY, ALL USD/JPY Yen crosses and ALL Majors (no exceptions) there is one other very important factor at play at this time.

To preface this I want to say that Market Demographic is so important to understand. It will help you understand what other traders are thinking and what they are doing.

Long Term (Tier One) traders have abandoned most, if not all, of their USD/JPY long positions.

This causes a void on the USD/JPY. Long Term traders that once anchored the USD/JPY and thus the JPY crosses, have folder thier cards and gone home. What we have left are Positional (Tier Two) and Intra Day (Tier Three) traders who have taken new short positions and who are in and out of both short and long trades. In addition to this there are Japanese Margin players, Retailers and Exporters all buying and selling in different directions for different reasons, short term and long term.

The resulting clash causes high volitility (and risk) not only on the USD/JPY and it's crosses but also on their associated Majors. This is why we see huge drops and rises of up to +150 and -150 pips on some of the majors in a single session. The majors are being driven by their respective JPY crosses and are thus at the mercy of whatever the USD/JPY makes those crosses do. This is a USD/JPY that no longer has LT anchor players.

By attempting to avert risk, the marketplace is in effect adding risk to intra day and intra week positions much like a catch-22.

The GBY/JPY pair has taken the biggest hit because it is viewed as the greatest culprit due to it's high carry trade yield previous to the retracement.

By the way, this was long overdue....


What am I.... the only guy hanging out in the halls of this asylum....
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