Just my opinion and please don't let it sway you.
GBP/USD
~Retrace to 1.99XX's
Then
~ 2.12XX
By Jan '08
GBP/USD
~Retrace to 1.99XX's
Then
~ 2.12XX
By Jan '08
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DislikedGBPJPY
Daily
Heavy S/R at 239.60ish level & 38.2. 150 ema acting as support. 50.0 fib bounce. Should be an interesting week.
JimIgnored
DislikedI think we will go up to about 243.00, I have very strong resistance there (38.2%, trendline, resistance level) and then continue downwards..
BUT, if we get a convincing break and a close above the trendline, things will be different then..Ignored
DislikedI think we will go up to about 243.00, I have very strong resistance there (38.2%, trendline, resistance level) and then continue downwards..
BUT, if we get a convincing break and a close above the trendline, things will be different then..Ignored
DislikedAfter hours and hours of thinking and analyzing this crazy pair, I think we are in downtrend for the short-term, but uptrend in the long-term..
First of all on my 4H chart, we are in a nice downtrend channel. After we made the low of 237.58 on 1st of August, retracement started, price retraced close to the 50.0% as you can see in the chart, on the 10th of August which is yesterday GJ made a new low, which tells me we are going to continue the downtrend.
Price looks like to be heading back to the upper trendline + 38.2%, we will have to wait and see but I believe we are in a downtrend and we are heading towards 232.50 (138.2% Fibo) area..
Remember, I could be totally wrong
http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/2040/gjfa5.gifIgnored
DislikedKarmo, thanks for the fibonnacci video link.
I'm trying to learn the very basics of fibonacci...one question: when you quote on this thread that we have / will reach X fibonacci level at Y price (and everyone else seems to see that same information themselves), you are presumably measuring the fib level from one certain place to another place on the chart, are you? Yes, that is correct, fibonacci retracement basically measures how much will a price retrace/pullback after it has gone strongly in a particular direction. It could be confusing to look at different timeframes, but it is very important because every trend is within another bigger trend.
To explain: in the video you linked to, the instructor was giving examples of measuring the fib level from location X to location Y. You presumably do this also, right? But if that is true, then how come everyone on the thread seems to agree on the fib levels? Does that mean that they are all measuring from / to the same X and Y points? Yes I do the same thing the instructor was doing. No, not everyone will be measuring the same levels, people ofcourse will draw their fibo's sometimes differently, and again it depends on the timeframe and on the pair that is being traded, every pair responds differently to fibonacci retracement levels. Read/listen on whatever material you can get about Fibo's and then apply them on your charts and see how a particular pair responded to it, try GU.
Forgive me if this is a stupid question!Ignored
DislikedKarmo,
I was curious as to why you drew your Fib down to the 237.70 area and not all the way down to the 236.30 area. It doesn't affect the channel line but it does move the 38.2 Fib down from the 243 area to the 242 area. There is actually resistance at both of those levels. I was just trying to find out your reasoning on this because I don't want to be overlooking something and I know that you are an avid chartist and Fib man. Thanks.
M2BIgnored
DislikedOk, after looking at the chart again.. I drew it differently again, fibonacci retracement should be drawn from the top/bottom till the trend is exhausted and starting to retrace, from the top of 251.07 to 238.28, and then the price started to retrace, come back, retrace, come back, and it's retracing now again (ranging the past week between 0.00% and 38.2%), here's a chart to show you.. there are 2 fib's drawn, a daily one (blue) and a 4H one (pink)
Red lines - Resistance, Green lines - Support, for anybody wondering..
http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/4777/gjtn0.gifIgnored
DislikedSilly question, I guess - but I'm assuming that the two dotted lines represent the two period(s) of time which form the basis for the two different fib levels, right?Ignored
Dislikedcorrect
Daily:
Low - 221.05
High 251.07
4H:
High - 251.07
Low - 238.28Ignored
DislikedThanks, Karmo. So presumably in fib terms, our retracement in GJ so far is a relatively small retracement, is that right?Ignored
DislikedLooks like the stage is set for a good buy position as 4 hr chart is bullish and and on 1 hr chart SI has touched 50 line also candles have formed above TFT line and 5sma is above current market if on next bar in 1 hr chart it continues to move up should we take buy position .If i am wrong somewhere plz correct me coz its what i have learnt so far of this trading technique.Ignored
DislikedGJ is down 200 pips from fridays close.
should not have hedged. Should have stuck to my bearish beliefs.
Update. It jumped right back up, so now it is only 30 pips down. Weird, aftermarket trading I guess.Ignored