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  • #212,101
  • Jul 29, 2025 11:13am Jul 29, 2025 11:13am
Quoting Iressent
Sold this morning @1.1756

Closed for +215

Long @1.1540
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Iressent/spektrum/11572381
  • #212,102
  • Jul 29, 2025 11:45am Jul 29, 2025 11:45am
Looking at M15 while waiting...: Until 1.1573, bears still have the upper hand here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-M15.png Size: 16 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #212,103
  • Jul 29, 2025 12:01pm Jul 29, 2025 12:01pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Looking at M15 while waiting...: Until 1.1573, bears still have the upper hand here... {image}
i jist can’t ignore the daily candle and in fact we are below 1.1555
if daily closed below, it signals some further move to the south.
we may bounce here to 1650 if fomc is dovish, but with the above in mind it puts me off buying.
i could be wrong
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #212,104
  • Jul 29, 2025 12:35pm Jul 29, 2025 12:35pm
Quoting Terges
{quote} Stopped out, tried again Long 1.1530 SL 1.1498
Going to BE
This information is not intended as investment advice
  • #212,105
  • Jul 29, 2025 1:19pm Jul 29, 2025 1:19pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} i jist can’t ignore the daily candle and in fact we are below 1.1555 if daily closed below, it signals some further move to the south. we may bounce here to 1650 if fomc is dovish, but with the above in mind it puts me off buying. i could be wrong
Wednesday FOMC outcome is well-telegraphed IMO and I expect markets will be noncommittal until NFP on Friday. But if EURUSD remains below the 1.156 level from prior to the Trump tweet/"fire Powell" market noise, that suggests the 1.11 target is very much in play.
  • #212,106
  • Jul 29, 2025 1:23pm Jul 29, 2025 1:23pm
I decide tobuy now. According to the H4 its seems like oversold
  • #212,107
  • Jul 29, 2025 1:38pm Jul 29, 2025 1:38pm
I bought 7 lots and I believe before FOMC it will be retest until 1,1760. After I will posted my order and summary I will be waiting until about 19:00 tomorrow and I will decide or sell or not. Maybe I sell, I will take a profit and I open the 2. position with buy before FOMC Rate
  • #212,108
  • Jul 29, 2025 1:55pm Jul 29, 2025 1:55pm
Be careful on sell orders, judging on how market has moved, can really see a surprise rate cut coming from the fed tomorrow. When you least expect it to happen BAM. Trump didn't travel to the FED to see the building progression but more for a little talk with Powell. We'll see if he's done enough to sway the voting board which I think he has. No FOMC in August so if there's no rate cute tomorrow it'll be in September. Which I think is mr too late as trump says. Tomorrow will be a filled with volatility so good luck to everyone. Hope everyone hits their TPs.
  • #212,109
  • Jul 29, 2025 2:03pm Jul 29, 2025 2:03pm
Quoting death-wish
Be careful on sell orders, judging on how market has moved, can really see a surprise rate cut coming from the fed tomorrow. When you least expect it to happen BAM. Trump didn't travel to the FED to see the building progression but more for a little talk with Powell. We'll see if he's done enough to sway the voting board which I think he has. No rate cut in August so if there's no rate cute tomorrow it'll be in September. Which I think is mr too late as trump says. Tomorrow will be a filled with volatility so good luck to everyone. Hope everyone...
Caution is obviously warranted but FOMC independence is considered extremely important not just by the Fed but by Wall Street and investors. A surprise cut would be very counterproductive and disruptive to markets. And given the "TACO" phenomenon, chances are also decent that while Trump invited himself where he was not needed, Powell calmly laid out the case to him and Trump came away from the meeting with a better appreciation of FOMC actions. Remember, Trump called for negative rates in his first term and even Trump supporters had to give him the tap on the shoulder to say "that's not how this works."
  • #212,110
  • Jul 29, 2025 2:15pm Jul 29, 2025 2:15pm
Quoting bartholemew
{quote} Caution is obviously warranted but FOMC independence is considered extremely important not just by the Fed but by Wall Street and investors. A surprise cut would be very counterproductive and disruptive to markets. And given the "TACO" phenomenon, chances are also decent that while Trump invited himself where he was not needed, Powell calmly laid out the case to him and Trump came away from the meeting with a better appreciation of FOMC actions. Remember, Trump called for negative rates in his first term and even Trump supporters had to...
Yes, what you said is true. However, if there is no rate cut, Trump might tweet something, like a potential replacement for Powell, which could influence investor expectations about monetary policy. So, it’s a win-win situation for Trump. I can’t see the market not going up, but that’s why we have to proceed with caution
  • #212,111
  • Jul 29, 2025 2:18pm Jul 29, 2025 2:18pm
Quoting death-wish
{quote} Yeah what you said is true however. If there is no rate cut, Trump might tweet something crazy, such as naming a potential replacement for Powell, which could influence investor expectations about monetary policy. So its a win win for trump. Can't see it not going up. Why we have to move with caution
The crazy tweets are expected and after the whipsaw tweets from a couple weeks ago, my guess is markets will not react as strongly. Or, maybe they will. The well-connected and well-resourced can certainly grift off of inside information and volatility.
  • #212,112
  • Jul 29, 2025 2:34pm Jul 29, 2025 2:34pm
Quick H4 Outlook

In my rough thinking:
If bulls can keep H4 candles above 1.1561 before today ends, or latest before London opening, there is a chance for a pullback...
If not, it is likely that bears will continue more powerful as soon as 1.1561 is lost and candles drop out of big circle! (Yellow area)

Time will tell...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H4.png Size: 17 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #212,113
  • Jul 29, 2025 2:39pm Jul 29, 2025 2:39pm
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} Just looked at my analysis from July 7th it's actually still valid for now. we saw price close below 1.163 area last week. so if everything holds true then the current price is a pullback up however, looking at the weekly candle so far i don't know maybe last week's down move was a fakeout. If we are able to close out the week again below1.172 -1.163 then maybe we will have that deeper pullback. let's see
Crucial time. another close below mentioned levels is possible. It could also be a another fakeout. weekley close is needed. daily close will not do it. time will tell
  • #212,114
  • Jul 29, 2025 3:46pm Jul 29, 2025 3:46pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick H4 Outlook In my rough thinking: If bulls can keep H4 candles above 1.1561 before today ends, or latest before London opening, there is a chance for a pullback... If not, it is likely that bears will continue more powerful as soon as 1.1561 is lost and candles drop out of big circle! (Yellow area) Time will tell... {image}
waiting for daily close. I have to respect that double top set up on daily and as long as we stayed under the neckline, it fuels for further drops
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #212,115
  • Jul 29, 2025 4:05pm Jul 29, 2025 4:05pm
Good evening, for tomorrow, I've 1.1579 as resistance, and 1.1522 as support.
  • #212,116
  • Jul 29, 2025 4:46pm Jul 29, 2025 4:46pm
Long term analyses:

-At the H4 timeframe both instruments (DXY + EURUSD) showing a break of the previous swing.
Therefor it looks like USD will get stronger and EURUSD will go down..

-On the weekly timeframe EURUSD is showing a huge bearish Gartley pattern which completed at the start of this month. The start of this month also was the start of Q3 of this year, so time is also in our favor.
If this Gartley pattern is holding and the downtrend is started, sell targets are as follow:

-1.1000 (0.50)
-1.0810 (0.61)
-1.0360 (0.886)
-0.9960 (113)
-0.9730 (127)

-Due to the recent market structure shift, which happened this week, it is getting interesting. Now it is crucial to stay patient and focused… Watch what they will do first and don’t chase..
Normally after a MSS there will be a deep pullback, back to the origin of the impulse. If this pullback happens they will target liquidity zones and liquidate every early participant.. They even trap traders on the wrong side of the market. So be aware of it…

Rate decision, NFP, mister Trump… Anything can happen..

Trade safe, DON’T rely solely on a stoploss and stay alert of major spreads, especially around weekends!
Also keep in mind that this is my perspective of market behavior. Anything can happen, we can be right or we can be wrong.
Only trade with money you can afford to lose without causing yourself harm.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 29-07-2025_MSS_240.PNG Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY 29-07-2025_MSS_240.PNG Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 29-07-2025_Weekly_Gartley.PNG Size: 21 KB
  • #212,117
  • Jul 29, 2025 6:03pm Jul 29, 2025 6:03pm
The EU-US trade tariff agreement benefits the US dollar, with EURUSD dropping above the 50-day moving average (MA) on the daily timeframe. Today, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and US GDP will be released, potentially acting as catalysts for the movement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 30 7 2025 h1.png Size: 10 KB
I trade at FXOpen
  • #212,118
  • Edited Jul 30, 2025 1:27am Jul 29, 2025 10:18pm | Edited Jul 30, 2025 1:27am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick H4 Outlook In my rough thinking: If bulls can keep H4 candles above 1.1561 before today ends, or latest before London opening, there is a chance for a pullback... If not, it is likely that bears will continue more powerful as soon as 1.1561 is lost and candles drop out of big circle! (Yellow area) Time will tell... {image}
My opinion is that the market will slowly go up first level is 1.15828/50 - 23%fib going above that we looking at 1.16214 -38% fib
Obviously the market is waiting for News but in the meantime these areas will be reached, So i will be looking to short at these levels.
I have a long with take profit @1.15850 currently +4 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 85 KB
Waiting for trades is OK. Most People spend their life waiting for nothing!
  • #212,119
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:27am Jul 30, 2025 1:27am
Meanwhile, on H1...

Until London opening, I see that 1.1545 is supportive... That can give bulls the chance to retest 1.1583 soon... Let's see how it goes..

*Normally I could risk long-scalpers at 1.1545, but I skip, because candles are still in my red zone... I don't trade for now!

Happy trading day folks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H1.png Size: 21 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #212,120
  • Jul 30, 2025 1:40am Jul 30, 2025 1:40am
Update on my H4 chart:

As long as 1.1533 area supports, bulls have a chance...
BUT: any delays to climb back above 1.1561 is damaging bull power!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-H4.png Size: 23 KB
Focus only on what truly matters!
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