Volman meets Burke or My journey with PA

The indicators are set to be as close to the same across bar size.

Almost tapped 2300

Working as theorized.

When deciding the parameters for the various indis I quickly learned I would need to use larger inputs. If you apply this to another system you will need to make adjustments based on the volume. The more volume the more bars.

I start with a fib sequence number then adjust from there if needed.

I get the indis on each chart to reflect the entry chart as close as I can. Essentially I am looking at the same thing on each chart to some extent. The main difference is the magnitude of the bars.

I set the parameters for the framework I want and let price do the rest. The VT gives a dynamic grid and will be very useful in entries.

Seeing things without the interference of time brings out the true nature of price action. On this instrument you can clearly see how price moves in an irregular cyclic manner. With the occasional extended push up or down.

I use some static indis. Weekly and daily pivots. Basic ones. Current day High and Low. Previous day High and Low and Close.

I use two Opens. One at the Open of the Day. The other at the 0930 ET Open. This coincides with the NYSE open.

Both Opens are important in a strategic - bigger picture - way.

One of my theorems is "nothing is S/R and everything is S/R".

What I mean by this is, let price let you know what it will be in this instance. One never really knows until it happens. One thing I can almost guarantee, it will be at or near one of the indicator points.

This is a big help when taking profit or looking to enter. If you work with it you may get to the point where you know when to pay closer attention.

Even though this system is indicator "heavy", it all comes down to what price is doing. That is, how is price acting and where is it in the framework.

Where's Waldo.

Tweaked the Gold.

This system is the result of my trading education and the theorems I accept of how price moves that work into the system. It is a direct response to my failed attempt to trade naked price. The big breakthrough came when I changed to Range bars. Range bars give you a much cleaner look at price and can be set to a size that fits one's own trading style and the instrument being traded. By removing time from the charts you get a clear picture of the true nature of price.

Even with this new clarity, I still can't trade naked charts. So, I apply what I know and am comfortable using. That is a big point, comfortable with using. If you can't be comfortable with the organized chaos of a system as this, you may want to look elsewhere. However, this has also been a process, albeit quick, of putting together a system. There may also be some concepts that can be used outside this system. I even have some ideas to potentially make this more accurate in the identification of entries. For now what I have will more than suffice.

Range bars have allowed me to set up the system where it is the same across all bar sizes. This ensures I can see the Big Picture within the framework of the system as a whole. And that is what this system is, a Framework I put together from a few various, mostly simple, elements. From that point Price maintains the framework through its movement. In this process I used the Fibonacci sequence for my initial parameters and many are still those numbers. This exercise has sold me on the use of the fibs.

This brings me to the theorems. Most everything flows from combining these two.

Price moves in Irregular cycles and Price is either on the Buy side or Sell side of any given point.

This first pic is the last two weeks as seen on the long term 41-range chart. The Blue is the long period HMA. You can clearly see how it encompasses most of the various cyclic moves. From this comes the Buy-Sell side theorem of PA, which is essentially that the more pronounced moves should be in the direction of the side. This resulted in "price will move mainly in the direction of its position in relation to the buy-side/sell-side of the HMA. If on the buy-side price will move mainly long or neutral (sideways) with limited counter moves. Opposite for the sell-side."

I know, these are all overly simplistic "theories". Yeup. That's why they are so good and correct. Keep things simple (with all this fine print before the last s, so you do not look) stupid.



This next pic is the current week just ended. The detail of how price moves through its self created framework is quite clear. I say self created framework because once the parameters are set, that is exactly what happens (another simplistic - they are everywhere). Here you can see how the Green and Gold work together to define the shorter period moves. My trading session is roughly from the Dk. Orchid to the Dk. Orange vertical lines. This also shows clearly the various static levels used.




This instrument has fairly clear moves from/to many of these static levels. It also stays within certain boundaries for the most part. Using this same methodology, one could easily adapt this to any instrument. Keeping in mind each instrument is unique and will likely require adjustments of the parameters.

Another change to make things smoother.

Next up is the mid-term chart. For this I use an 8-range bar. At this level I have brought three new elements into the mix. They are the MACD, the Vegas Tunnel (VT), and the Blue mean. I changed the parameters of the MACD to reduce some "noise" and to bring it inline with the mid-point area. The VT adds a dynamic grid structure. This gives a unique view as the fib levels turn out to be equivalent to the tick (pip) value from the mid-point - the Tunnel, which is the two emas that are the base of this structure. From the VT to the first level (Peru) is a fib of 21 = 21 ticks. The 2nd fib level (Sea Green) is 55 ticks. The 3rd fib level (Dk Orchid) is 89 ticks. The last level (Firebrick) is 144 ticks. To put this into perspective, 10 ticks = 1 pt.

Price rarely moves outside the 89 (fib) zone. It can and will when they move it. This is not a more extreme instrument. It can mainly only be traded during US hours. These concepts and system can be adjusted to other instruments that fit your time session.

A rare cover performed by David Bowie

"Pablo Picasso"

One of the main functions of the mid-term chart is to keep track of where I am when focusing on the entry chart. I will often scroll in on the entry chart to the point I no longer see enough of the market structure. Another function is just that, to see the market structure. I am unable to see this fully on the entry chart. When looking at the market structure, I am not looking for breaks in structure per se. I am looking more to see what the magnitude of various moves, areas of consolidation (accumulation), and how price is fitting into the framework. This also helps me to see potential changes in direction.

Similar to how I use the mid-term to see the bigger picture from the entry chart, I reference the long-term from the mid-term.

Following is a rundown of how I "analyze" my charts. Analyze in quotes as I expect the market to almost always act in certain ways depending on where it is in the framework. Often the only concern is can I get that entry where I don't have to go through much waiting or inadvertently get stopped out due to a not quite correct entry (yes it happens). Another thing to take into account is that even though when price moves into a certain condition for say an up move, the probabilities are fairly good that will occur, the magnitude and duration of that potential move are unknown.











(A) This is the starting point of the current down cycle. These long term cycles are determined by price crossing and remaining in the new condition. From this point to the end of the day price was in a down trend.

(B) From the Open of the current day to the NYSE Open price moved mostly in a neutral (sideways) manner. Price did move above the Green, but as you can see, this did not pan out to a continued long.

(C) This is the 0930 NYSE Open. At this point the market has moved through a mainly neutral overnight and pre-market (I define pre-market as that period from about 6/7 am ET through the 0830 data drops (if any) to the NYSE Open). From the open it was mostly a free fall to the bottom. There were two places where price did a pullback. The first was the area marked by D. The other was the pullback area prior to E.

(D) This is basic and clean PA when crossing a more major point. In this case that point is the Green. Price tapped through, hiccupped back, then zoom to almost the 89Fib. It then pulled back to the confluence area of the previous Low and the 55Fib. It then continued up with a brief pause at the Green then a push to the Blue mean before resuming down.

You need to take notice of PA as it interacts with various static and dynamic levels. As can be seen, there is an abundance of brief sideways movement at/near those levels.

(E) This is an area of consolidation at the newly created low. As always, you have to consider the possibility of continued movement. What I most often look for under conditions as this, consolidation following a fairly significant drop, is a potential up move of at least tradeable size.

Some final changes. Removed the red and blue mean as they had become redundant. They were very useful in getting to this point.

The main premise for entries is price crossing into buy/sell side of the gold. This is all viewed in context of the green/blue med/long term.

More to define this better soon.

To start, I dropped the stoch. No plan to add any other oscillator at this time.

The Buy-side, Sell-side concept works across the board with all three bar sizes I use. I have the same basic setup on all three charts. The Long-Blue and the Med-Green are near the same point on all three charts. Or close enough for me (I am not a mathematician nor a statistician enough to bother with that accuracy. I do see the potential auto potential, but I am not that guy.).

In the same manner the 8-range and 3-range have the Gold, Red, and VT.



I have discussed the long term enough. This week is a bit different in that price has been oscillating around the Long-Blue and moving in the Med-Green cycles. This happens prior to events as today, especially with the big build up. (no comment here)
How price moves through those indis on the 41-range is how it moves through them on the other two charts.
At this level I have added the VT and am using the "tunnel" as the mid-point. From this, above is the Buy-side and below is the Sell-side. The VT has envelopes around the mid-point. My levels are adjusted to the Russell2k.

Here we have the entry chart. 3-Range bar.

The only addition is the white 12-per mean. I call this the "Waldo mean". Nothing more than a slightly smoothed representation of price. Looking at this, you can see why I chose it as it clearly depicts the main concepts of this system. Everything works synergistically. Starting with price and moving from there. Dependent on where price is within its framework is the name of the game.

Where's Waldo!!



The VT is the mid-point and is the Dynamic "grid". This is important. So far in my observations with the VT and price in this state, many moves begin at/near a fib point and often end at/near a fib point.

The entries I focus on are initial crossings of the Gold. Alas, it is not as simple as that.

There is a general process. Here there are two trades. One short. The other long. This is followed by the beginning of a potential down setup. This process consists of:

(1) Price moving to either the buy-side or sell side of the Red. This is confirmed by the cross of the white-mean.
(2) Price will then cross to the buy-side or sell-side of the Gold.
(3) From here a pullback or a small sideways move will often occur. The pullback is often, but again, not always, back to or near the Gold. The sideways pause should occur near what could be considered S/R whether static or dynamic.
(4) After the pullback, price will move back in the prior direction. Sometime quickly. The sideways moves are often price just going. These are the things that chart time will make you in "tune with".

You want to be in somewhere between 3 & 4. Yeah, sorry, that's about the best I can tell ya.




(Close up walk through next.)