Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

EURUSD weekly forecast: US budget deficit and trade wars in focus

Last week the euro reached new peaks but EURUSD corrected by week’s end, stabilising amid the US holiday and market readiness to react swiftly to changing conditions. This weekly EURUSD forecast analyses factors that could drive the pair to fresh 2025 highs.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: Donald Trump signs measures set to push the US budget deficit to its limits. On 9 July maximum trade tariffs come into effect.
2. Current trend: The medium-term uptrend remains intact; short-term consolidation is near 1.1780.
3. EURUSD forecast for 7-11 July 2025: Growth target – retest of the 1.1836 high; support levels – 1.1680 and 1.1439.

Fundamental analysis

EURUSD fundamentals remain mixed and contradictory. The dollar strengthened after the US jobs report showed 147,000 new jobs created in June – above forecasts and May’s reading. Unemployment fell to 4.1 % despite expectations of a rise. These figures lowered the chance of a near-term Fed rate cut and briefly restored dollar demand as a relatively stable currency.

In the UK and eurozone, attention turns to central bank policy. The Bank of England signals readiness to cut rates in August amid fears of overheating and a sharp economic slowdown. The ECB remains more reserved: President Christine Lagarde stated that further steps depend on data and that current rates are near neutral. This gives EUR local stability while the dollar weakens overall.

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Trump prepares tariff storm for Japan – what will happen to USDJPY

USDJPY reacts specifically to tariffs on goods from Japan; quotes may form a correction towards support around 145.20. Details – in our analysis for 8 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Trump imposes a 25% tariff on goods from Japan
2. Investors seek refuge in USD
3. USDJPY forecast for 8 July 2025: 145.20

Fundamental analysis

US President Trump announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on goods from Japan from 1 August. The trade confrontation between the US and Japan does not end at this stage. Earlier, Trump spoke of 50% import tariffs, but gradually his fervour is cooling down, and he does not rule out the possibility of easing tariffs and extending their deadlines.

Attempts to support US manufacturers through higher import tariffs ultimately affect consumers, who will have to pay these tariffs out of their own pockets. Importers, including Japan, China, and the EU, may eventually increase prices for their goods to compensate for tariffs and gain their own profit.

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GBPUSD in an uptrend despite global risks

The GBPUSD rate is strengthening but remains under pressure from global tensions and calls for increased defence spending. Current quote – 1.3593. Details – in our analysis for 9 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The UK is working on an agreement with the US to cancel steel tariffs, fearing an increase up to 50%
2. An increase in steel tariffs could have a devastating impact on the British steel industry
3. GBPUSD forecast for 9 July 2025: 1.3770

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is recovering after three consecutive days of decline. The British pound came under pressure due to rising global tensions and mounting calls for increased defence spending, creating long-term budgetary uncertainty. Despite the current bearish correction, the GBPUSD currency pair continues to move within an uptrend.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned that government debt could reach 270% of GDP by 2070, due to demographic changes and rising healthcare and pension costs.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) at a stabilization point: many risks, but no one is afraid

Gold (XAUUSD) price consolidates at 3,333 USD. Trump’s trade policy worries the market, but there is no panic. Details – in our analysis for 11 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) price has changed little over the week
2. The market is focused on trade risks but is not yet ready to re-evaluate them
3. XAUUSD forecast for 11 July 2025: 3,345

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) price remains stable near 3,333 USD on Friday. Overall, the precious metal attempts to rise for the third day in a row. Market focus remains on demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions.

President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 35% tariff on imports from Canada starting 1 August and spoke about plans to introduce large-scale tariffs of 15-20% for most other trading partners. Previously, there were threats against Brazil and proposals to impose tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EURUSD under pressure: Trump hits markets with new tariffs

The US tariffs on imports from the EU are weighing on the EURUSD rate, pushing it lower. The price currently stands at 1.1666. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Trump’s trade initiative escalates global trade tensions
2. Markets await US inflation data due on Tuesday
3. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by around 50 basis points by the end of the year
4. EURUSD forecast for 14 July 2025: 1.1825

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to decline on Monday, consolidating below the key support level at 1.1685. The pair is under pressure from a stronger US dollar amid new statements from US President Donald Trump on tariff policy.

Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective from 1 August. This move adds to the already tense global trade environment. Nevertheless, investor reaction remains restrained – the market increasingly ignores such threats, as their actual impact on the US dollar has been limited.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USDJPY rises to 147.65: tariffs and data weigh on the yen

The USDJPY pair continues to climb as the market reacts to trade-related risks. Find more details in our analysis for 15 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair continues to rise, hitting fresh two-month highs
2. Further details on tariffs and Japanese economic data will provide more insight into yen movements
3. USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2025: 148.00

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, the USDJPY rate rose to 147.65, marking a new two-month high, as trade risks from new US measures persist.

Washington plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods starting 1 August, while Tokyo has yet to announce any retaliatory action. Negotiations between the two parties have effectively stalled. One Japanese official warned of potential economic consequences if the tariffs are enforced.

Investors now await upcoming trade and inflation data from Japan, which will help assess the scale of pressure on the domestic economy. In addition, market focus also turns to the US inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

Rebound or failure? GBPUSD hangs in the balance

In anticipation of data from the UK and the US, GBPUSD quotes may reverse and head towards the 1.3500 mark. Discover more in our analysis for 16 July 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. UK Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 3.4%, projected at 3.4%
2. US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.2%
3. GBPUSD forecast for 16 July 2025: 1.3500

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for 16 July 2025 takes into account that the pair remains in a correction phase and is currently near the support level of the ascending channel.

The UK Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers and helps assess consumer behaviour trends and potential stagnation in the economy. Generally, if the CPI exceeds expectations, it has a positive impact on the national currency.

The forecast for 16 July 2025 suggests the CPI for June 2025 may remain at 3.4%. Any increase would support the British pound.

The US PPI is expected to rise to 0.2%, up from 0.1% previously. However, the increase is modest, and the actual figure may differ significantly from the forecast.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) in consolidation: safe-haven assets out of favour for now

Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 3,340 USD. Interest in the US dollar continues to rise. Find more details in our analysis for 17 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) quotes rose in response to uncertainty and fell once doubt was removed
2. A rebound in the US dollar reduces gold's appeal for investors
3. XAUUSD forecast for 17 July 2025: 3,360

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices retreated to 3,340 USD per ounce, reversing the previous session’s gains. The metal came under pressure as the US dollar rebounded following reduced uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve Chairman: rumours about Jerome Powell’s possible dismissal were not confirmed. Donald Trump called such a move unlikely, although he again expressed dissatisfaction with current interest rate levels.

Another factor was the neutral US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June. The reading remained unchanged, signalling stable wholesale prices and easing concerns about strong inflationary pressure from tariffs. These new figures contrast with the previously recorded rise in consumer inflation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY in the eye of the storm, yen loses balance

As Japan awaits the upper house elections, the USDJPY pair may continue its upward movement towards 149.60. Find out more in our analysis for 18 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Nationwide core Consumer Price Index in Japan: previously at -3.7%, currently at -3.3%
2. Yen awaits upper house elections
3. USDJPY forecast for 18 July 2025: 149.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY fundamental analysis for 18 July 2025 shows that the pair remains in an upward channel, having consolidated near the 148.60 level. Strong macroeconomic data from the US and political uncertainty in Japan continue to pressure the yen.

US retail sales reports and a drop in jobless claims further support the dollar – both as a reflection of domestic economic resilience and as a safe-haven asset. Expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut have weakened.

On the Japanese side, the market is pricing in risks related to the upcoming upper house parliamentary elections. A decline in the core CPI and growing political pressure on the current administration are adding to USDJPY volatility.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD dipped to the 1.1600 area; will the decline continue?

The EURUSD rate has fallen to the 1.1600 area as part of a downward correction and in anticipation of new tariffs on EU goods. Find out more in our analysis for 21 July 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: this week, the ECB interest rate decision is in the spotlight
2. Current trend: correcting downwards
3. EURUSD forecast for 21 July 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1600

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is declining amid a moderate recovery in the US dollar. The latter strengthens as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting decrease following US inflation data and President Trump’s statement that he will not dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Markets remain focused on the new trade tariffs, maintaining some optimism that a US-EU deal might still be reached before 1 August. President Trump has announced 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union starting next month, but later expressed willingness to negotiate. In response, the EU reaffirmed its commitment to reaching a trade agreement.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the correction has ended, further growth is expected

The DE 40 stock index is poised to resume upward movement. Today’s DE 40 forecast is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for June came in at 0.1%
2. Market impact: the value is neutral for the German stock market and the DE 40 index

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s PPI for June 2025 showed a 0.1% increase, matching forecasts and improving from the previous month’s -0.2%. A moderate rise in producer prices indicates stability in the manufacturing sector and the absence of sharp price surges, which reduces risks for corporate profitability within the index. This supports investor confidence in sectors such as industrials, engineering, and chemicals, as their cost base is not significantly affected by inflationary shocks.

Overall, the PPI data confirms expectations of a stable economic backdrop without abrupt inflationary spikes, which supports a positive outlook for the German stock market in both the short and medium term. Investors may expect a continued moderate rise in shares of leading DE 40 companies, while maintaining a balance between risks and opportunities.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: index hits a new all-time high

US 500 approached a resistance level and may enter a downward correction before resuming its upward movement. The forecast for US 500 today remains positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June declined by 0.3%
2. Market impact: This is a negative signal for equities, as the LEI consists of 10 components reflecting future economic activity

Fundamental analysis

The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped by -0.3% in June, compared to expectations of -0.2% and a flat reading the previous month. The decline in the LEI serves as a warning of a potential slowdown in economic activity over the next 6–12 months. While the drop isn’t critical, it signals a weakening growth momentum in the US economy. This could limit risk appetite in the stock market and strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The decline in the LEI, against already subdued expectations, supports a more cautious approach. In the short term, investors may rotate from cyclical into defensive sectors. If signs of slowing growth persist, this could increase the likelihood of more accommodative monetary policy, potentially supporting the tech sector.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index has entered a sideways channel

The JP 225 stock index has formed a sideways channel within an overall uptrend. Today’s JP 225 forecast is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s core CPI came in at 3.3% in June
2. Market impact: this signals slower price growth, which may positively affect the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (core CPI) for July 2025 stood at 3.3% year-on-year, below the forecast of 3.4% and the previous reading of 3.7%. Lower inflation reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. This creates a positive environment across most sectors. Consumer companies stand to benefit the most, as the risk of falling real incomes lessens. Technology and export-oriented firms also benefit, since weak inflation increases the likelihood of continued accommodative monetary policy.

The financial sector, on the other hand, may be at a disadvantage because easing inflation reduces the odds of interest rate hikes, thus capping banks’ margin growth. Meanwhile, the construction and real estate segments may gain support amid expectations of continued low borrowing costs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

The Fed exposed! Azoria Capital demands transparency – what is next for XAUUSD

Amid a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve and deteriorating US economic indicators, XAUUSD may test the 3,420 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 25 July 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Azoria Capital filed a lawsuit against the US Federal Reserve
2. US durable goods orders: previously at 16.4%, projected at -10.4%
3. XAUUSD forecast for 25 July 2025: 3,420

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that gold is trading around 3,358 USD per ounce, pulling back after reaching the 3,431 USD resistance level earlier this week.

Azoria Capital, a financial management company, has filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve, including Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bank officials. The claim argues that the Fed violates the 1976 federal law by holding closed meetings on interest rate decisions. Azoria Capital demands that all such meetings be made public starting next week.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY climbs above 148.00, Fed and Bank of Japan rate decisions in focus

The USDJPY pair is moderately strengthening, rising above 148.00 ahead of this week’s key monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Find out more in our analysis for 28 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: this week, attention turns to interest rate decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve
2. Current trend: upward momentum persists
3. USDJPY forecast for 28 July 2025: 149.18 or 147.00

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is weakening moderately following trade agreements with the US. This week, the market will focus on the monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, although markets will be closely watching for signals on a possible rate cut in September.

The Bank of Japan will announce its policy decision on Thursday. Rates are also expected to remain unchanged amid ongoing concerns about the economic impact of US trade tariffs. However, the central bank is likely to revise its inflation forecast upwards in its quarterly outlook, reflecting persistent price pressures.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Brent prices jump towards 70.00 USD as trade tensions ease

Brent prices are on the rise, reaching the 70.00 USD area amid a trade agreement between the US and the EU. Discover more in our analysis for 29 July 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: today, the spotlight is on US crude oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API)
2. Current trend: trading within a broad sideways range
3. Brent forecast for 29 July 2025: 70.70 or 67.20

Fundamental analysis

Oil prices are moderately rising, supported by the US-EU trade deal that introduces a 15% tariff on most European goods. This agreement reduces fears that new tariffs could weigh on global economic growth and energy demand.

Today, market focus shifts to the US oil inventory data from the API. An increase in stockpiles may pressure Brent prices, while a decline could offer support.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index set a new all-time high and began a correction

The US 500 index approached the 6,500.0 level, and with each new all-time high, the likelihood of a downward correction increases. Today’s US 500 forecast is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US JOLTS job openings for June came in at 7.43 million
2. Market impact: the effect on the US stock market may be mixed, depending on the Federal Reserve’s interpretation of this data

Fundamental analysis

The JOLTS job openings figure reflects the number of available positions in the US and serves as a key indicator of labour market health. The current reading is 7.437 million, below both the forecast of 7.510 million and the previous figure of 7.712 million. This suggests weakening demand for labour and a gradual cooling of the economy. For equities, this may have a twofold impact. On the one hand, fewer job openings ease wage pressure and inflation risks, which increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising rates and could eventually resume rate cuts. On the other hand, it points to slowing economic activity, which raises investor caution.

For the US 500 index, the impact varies by sector. The technology and real estate sectors benefit as a more accommodative Fed stance makes funding more accessible and supports growth stocks. Meanwhile, the financial sector may see reduced profitability due to lower interest rates.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index enters a sideways channel

The JP 225 stock index is completing a downward correction within a broader uptrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Tokyo core CPI in Japan preliminarily came in at 2.9% year-on-year in July
2. Market impact: inflation falling below expectations may positively impact the stock market, as it reduces the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy

Fundamental analysis

The Tokyo core CPI reflects inflation dynamics in Tokyo and serves as an important gauge of inflationary trends across Japan’s economy. The current reading of 2.9% is below both the previous value of 3.1% and the forecast of 3.0%. This indicates that inflationary pressure is easing, which could significantly influence the Japanese stock market, including the JP 225 index.

Inflation falling below expectations may boost the stock market as it lowers the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening its monetary policy. Investors may interpret this as a sign that the BoJ will continue with a loose monetary stance (low interest rates), which typically supports equities. However, the central bank has previously indicated plans to raise the key rate instead.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Gold (XAUUSD) strengthens despite pressure from the US dollar

XAUUSD quotes are attempting to recover, supported by technical factors and sustained demand. Prices currently stand at 3,292 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 1 August 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,080 tonnes
2. Central banks reduced purchases but remain key buyers
3. Jewellery consumption dropped to 2020 levels
4. XAUUSD forecast for 1 August 2025: 3,375

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices are rising for the second consecutive day, with buyers keeping prices above the lower boundary of a large Triangle pattern. Despite this local recovery, the precious metal remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar, which gained after Donald Trump announced plans to impose higher tariffs on several countries.

According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,080 tonnes, up 10% from the same period last year. Central banks continue to play a significant role despite slightly lower purchase volumes. In contrast, the jewellery segment showed weak dynamics, with consumption nearly returning to 2020 pandemic levels.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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USDJPY plunges, Bank of Japan remains silent, while US industrial sector hits negative records

The USDJPY outlook is at a tipping point. With US economic indicators pressuring the dollar, a rally towards 149.00 is possible. Find out more in our analysis for 4 August 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. US factory orders: previously at 8.2%, projected at -4.9%
2. Current trend: upward impulse remains possible
3. USDJPY forecast for 4 August 2025: 149.00

Fundamental analysis

The release of actual US employment data triggered a USD sell-off. After testing the 150.00 level, the USDJPY rate dropped significantly and currently trades around 147.00.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressed concern over increased yen volatility and sharp rate swings. However, the Bank of Japan believes the current JPY exchange rate does not influence inflation, indirectly hinting that a yen intervention is unlikely in the near term. The central bank also suggests that a change in interest rates is improbable anytime soon.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team