EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD)

Great question — appreciate you asking.

Yeah, my account peaked at $437 on July 10th, and since then I’ve taken 12 trades in total across EURUSD and GBPCHF.

Here's the breakdown:
EURUSD (5 trades):

1. 2 × full losses (–2R)
2. 1 × BE / slight gain
3. 1 × 1R win
4. 1 × 2R win
   → +1R net

GBPCHF (7 trades):

1. 6 × full losses (–6R)
2. 1 × 2R win
   → –4R net

So in total that’s a net drawdown of around $184, which brought my account from just over $400 back to ~$253. Remember that I risk 10% per trade.
Definitely not a blowout — more like a slow bleed over a bunch of valid trades.

The key part though:
All trades were executed according to plan
No rule-breaking
No overleveraging
No revenge entries
Just a cold streak. It happens.

After yesterday’s triple-loss day, I made the decision to pause trading GBPCHF completely until I backtest it more thoroughly. The data’s just not strong enough to justify continuing it live for now.

What’s keeping me grounded is that I stuck to my system through the drawdown. That’s something I wasn’t able to do in the past, and I see it as a big personal win. It’s all part of building confidence in the long-term edge — one trade at a time.

Attached is the MT5 screenshot with all entries. Appreciate the accountability this thread brings!

Strategy Update — Friday, July 18th

EURUSD
+2R win
Quick and clean move this morning.
Frankfurt Open gave a subtle but valid manipulation of Asia Low — just 3 pippettes below. That’s enough by my rules.
At 8AM GMT, a Buy Signal printed and I executed without hesitation. The trade played out smoothly, reaching full TP (20 pips) about an hour later.

A great confidence boost to wrap up what’s been a tough week for the strategy. One good trade doesn’t erase the losses, but it helps reset the mindset heading into the weekend.

GBPCHF
After Thursday’s -2R day on this pair, I’ve officially paused trading GBPCHF live. While early results looked promising, the fact remains: I haven’t fully backtested it.
That makes trading it right now essentially gambling — and that’s not the professional, data-driven approach I’m building.
The plan is to revisit and potentially reintroduce GBPCHF in the next couple of months once the backtest is complete.

Now closing charts for the week and stepping into a well-deserved weekend break.
As always, attaching TV and MT5 screenshots for full transparency

Here we go
the statistical edge returning back to do its job
well done

London swept Asia Low on Friday actually giving me a basis for a beautiful 2R win on long.
I look for 1st manipulation of pre-7AM GMT Asia high / low - this happened early in Friday's London Session for me, confirming bullish intention for the session, or at least another 20-50 pips.

Strategy Update — Monday, July 21st

EURUSD
-1R loss

Frankfurt Open brought a classic setup: manipulation of Asia High at 8AM GMT.
A clean Sell Signal printed 45 minutes later — I entered on candle close per the plan.

Trade ran up to +1R before reversing and stopping me out for the full loss.
No emotion, no stress — strategy was executed perfectly. One of those trades that just didn’t play out. On to the next.


Strategy Refinement Update
After months of testing and refinement, I’ve finalized my strategy into a fully mechanical system — no discretion, no guesswork.
Key components:

1. Setup: Asia High/Low sweep
2. Entry: First signal after manipulation (Sell after Asia High sweep / Buy after Asia Low sweep)
3. SL: 10–27 pips, covering the manipulation swing
4. TP: Fixed 2R
5. BE Rule: Move SL to BE when trade reaches 1.5R

I backtested this from Jan 2021 to present, removing all discretionary decisions. As expected, performance metrics dropped slightly:

1. Win rate: 38%
2. Avg. monthly net gain: 4.5R

But the key improvement? Total consistency and full repeatability.
No second-guessing. No hesitation. Just execution.

I also ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on this strategy.
The long-term edge is clear — drawdowns are manageable, and returns are statistically robust.

Next Steps:
I’ve begun developing a trading bot to automate the entire process.
With everything defined mechanically, it’s finally possible to remove myself from execution and let the system run without emotional interference.

This is a huge milestone — excited to take the next step in systemizing the edge.

Weekly Performance Recap — July 14th - 18th

EURUSD:

1. 5 trades available
2. Results:
   1. 3 x full losses (-3R)
   2. 2 x 2R wins (+4R)

3. Net: +1R
4. Month-to-date performance: +1R

GBPCHF:

1. 6 trades available
2. Results:
   1. 5 x full losses (-5R)
   2. 1 x 2R win (+2R)

3. Net: -3R
4. Month-to-date performance: +3R

Total across both pairs:

1. Net result: -2R

My Execution:

1. Trades taken: 9 of 11 valid trades
2. Results:
   1. 3 wins
   2. 5 losses
   3. 1 break-even

3. Net result: -2R

Key Takeaway:
I’ve decided that trading two pairs at this point in my development isn’t the best approach. Focusing on EURUSD is the clear decision moving forward as I have fully backtested it and know that the strategy is profitable with strong data behind it.

For GBPCHF, I will take it day by day and gather more data to either confirm the pair is profitable or not based on its own metrics. Currently, I don’t have enough data to draw a full conclusion, so I’m choosing patience and objectivity in evaluating it further.

A positive shift has also occurred in my mental game. I’m noticing that I’m not tempted to close winning trades prematurely like I used to. There’s a marked difference in how I handle trades as they go into profit — I no longer feel the same stress when they pull back. I understand now that resulting over a large sample of trades is what matters, not one single outcome. This mental shift is huge!

As an example, I'm currently in a long trade that almost hit my 2R TP but has since pulled back. In the past, this would’ve made me anxious about losing floating profit, but now, it doesn’t phase me. I know that my SL is at BE (per my strategy), and no damage can be done. This new mindset will help me tremendously over the long run.

Strategy Update — Tuesday, July 22nd

EURUSD Break-even
Really clean setup today — textbook Asia Low manipulation followed by a Buy Signal. I entered confidently, and the trade ran smoothly… almost all the way.
Price came less than 1 pip from hitting my 2R TP before reversing.

BE was already set after reaching 1.5R in profit, so I was away from charts with alerts set to let me know of the outcome.
Tough pill to swallow, but this is part of the game.

Execution: perfect
Management: by the book
Outcome: unlucky

Frustrating result, but I’m proud of how I handled it.

Journaled and moving on.

Strategy Update — Wednesday, July 23nd

EURUSD
-1R Loss

What looked like a very promising short setup ended in a full loss today.

There was a textbook pre-London Open manipulation of Asia High right at the Premium of the current H1 bullish A-B leg — strong confluence and aligned perfectly with my system. I entered short on the Sell Signal.

Unfortunately, price never reached 1.5R, so I couldn’t move my SL to breakeven. Instead, it slowly descended into the Discount zone, mitigated an H1 FVG, and resumed its bullish trend — completely invalidating the short idea.

I could’ve manually closed around the 50% level of the A-B leg, but that would go against my rules. This trade was a clean -1R, fully in line with my strategy.

With this, net gain for the month is back at -1R. It’s shaping up to be one of those tough months I’ve seen plenty of times during backtesting. You just have to grind through and stay consistent.

“What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.”
I believe that. These rough periods build discipline, resilience, and real mental toughness.

Let’s see what Thursday brings.

Strategy Update — Thursday, July 24th

EURUSD
-1R Loss

Very short session today.
London Open swept the Asia Low and quickly reversed with a strong bullish M15 engulfing candle. One hour later, a Buy Signal printed after price retraced into the extreme of the bullish push — appearing to reject lower prices again.

I entered according to my execution protocol, but price reversed and hit my SL within 45 minutes.

This marks the third consecutive loss.

That said, I’m choosing to focus on the positives:
6 flawless trades executed back-to-back
All in alignment with the strategy
No emotional decisions, no rule-breaking
That’s a true win.

Losses are part of the process. There’s no reason to act emotionally or do something that would derail months of discipline and progress.

Stepping away from the charts now. Back tomorrow with a clear mind and perfect execution.

See you then!

Strategy Update — Friday, July 25th

EURUSD
+2R Win

Full TP hit to wrap up an otherwise tough week.
Frankfurt Open manipulated Asia High into an M15 Fair Value Gap, followed by brief accumulation and clean bearish expansion.
Sell Signal printed at 9AM GMT — I entered a minute later due to being briefly away from charts. Luckily, the entry was nearly identical to the ideal signal level, so no edge was lost.

TP hit during NY session around 2PM.

Is there a better way to close the week?
After a streak of losses, this one felt especially good — a much-needed confidence boost.

Weekend plan: I’ll post the weekly performance recap soon.

Next week will come with its own challenges and opportunities — I’ll continue to show up, stay professional, and stick to the process. Outcomes will take care of themselves.

Really impressed by your dedication.
nice work
cheers

Just posted this in EURUSD only.
I like your style and i think you understand the market

Weekly Performance Recap — July 21st–25th

EURUSD:
5 trades available
Results:

1. 3 × full losses (-3R)
2. 1 × 2R win (+2R)
3. 1 × breakeven (0R)

Net for the week: -1R
Month-to-date performance: 0R

My Execution
Trades taken: 5 out of 5 valid setups.
Execution and trade management: Flawless — no missed entries, emotional exits, or overleveraging.

I’m honestly stoked with my performance this week.
Even though the results didn’t reflect it in terms of profits, I stayed 100% disciplined and followed my plan to the letter. That’s the biggest win in my eyes.

Perspective on July Performance
July has been tough. Sitting at 0R net going into the last week of the month isn’t ideal — but I’ve seen this before.

Out of the last 54 months of backtesting:

1. 12 months were negative, with 3 major outliers:
   1. Feb 2021: -11R
   2. Dec 2023: -7R
   3. Jun 2024: -8R
   4. The rest: between 0 and -5R

2. 9 months ended with ≤2R gain

So yeah, quiet or even red months are part of the game.

Big Picture Wins
Despite July’s slow grind, the system is on a 7-month winning streak, totaling +51.4R — that’s ~7.3R/month.

For comparison:

1. The longest profitable streak I’ve seen in my data was Oct 2021–Sep 2022:
   1. 12 consecutive green months
   2. Total gain: +99R
   3. Avg: 8.3R/month

Followed by:

1. 2 losing months: -0.8R and -1R
2. Then another 8 green months

That’s 2 red months in a 22-month stretch.
Just imagine what consistent, unemotional execution, like the ones this week, through those months can do to an account with proper risk management.

Final Thoughts
No illusions here — past results don’t guarantee future returns, but they do help set realistic expectations.
I’ll keep showing up, executing, journaling, and most importantly: growing.

If this journey helps even one person shift toward consistency and discipline, then it’s worth it.
This is a marathon, and I’m running it with full focus — one signal at a time.

On to the final week of July — let’s see what it brings.

what platform you have this orderflow from looks nice ?

Maybe you can add this for extra rule , i noticed that EU works fine if you use M15 and it make a manipulation within the 30 minutes its like when it engulf the asia H/L you have a strong setup

for example :




https://prnt.sc/AUS7ufWTRC-u

Excellent, keep it up, I'll join your challenge and I'll follow you in the thread. I wish you success and keep publishing your results.

Strategy Update — Monday & Tuesday, July 28th–29th

EURUSD
Monday — No Trade
Price dropped aggressively during Frankfurt and London Open, sweeping Friday’s Low and mitigating a Daily FVG around the 1.0680 even handle.
While a Buy Signal was printed by Market Cipher, it appeared on a strong bearish candle, which invalidates it in my playbook.
Had we seen a follow-up bullish signal or a proper reversal setup, I would’ve considered entering — but nothing materialized. No setup, no trade.

Tuesday — Missed Execution (Mistake)
Very clean late-night manipulation extended into the Asia session, culminating in a sweep of both Asia Low and a Weekly Low from two weeks ago.
I was eyeing a HTF POI marked with a NWOG, expecting a deeper push down before a reversal. Unfortunately, price reversed about 6 pips shy of my zone and printed a Buy Signal at 8:45 AM GMT.

I did not enter — a clear mistake.
Why?

1. I was too fixated on price reaching my POI
2. I second-guessed the reversal
3. I hesitated due to SL size (27 pips) — too large for a move I expected to be a simple pullback

Despite that, this was a valid signal within my rules, and I should have executed.
The trade would have moved about 1.2–1.3R before reversing and eventually hitting my planned SL — so in the end, it would’ve been a full 1R loss.

Reflections
While I avoided a loss, it came at the expense of breaking the system. That’s not a win.
This wasn’t a trade I chose to pass because it was outside my plan — I simply failed to execute.
Still, it’s part of the learning process.

The key takeaway:
"Indecision and hesitation have no place in execution. Trust the system. Take the signal."
Quiet start to the week — zero trades Monday, one missed valid setup Tuesday.

Let’s see what Wednesday brings!

Dear, I think that you should follow the letter as you did in the backtesting since for a long time it gave you that statistic, sometimes by believing something it becomes subjective and the statistics are lost.

Absolutely — I couldn’t agree more. Sticking to the plan is key, and I’m already seeing big improvements over the past few weeks. My discipline has come a long way, but I know there’s still more work to be done.

Trading is a skill like any other — it takes time, effort, and consistent practice to build. I’m fully committed to the process, and I’m confident that with continued focus, the results will follow.

Hey Warsaw,
I really like your thread and how you can provide meaningful information both technically and psychologically. You often say that your data allows you to be stay confident in your approach and that it allows to be consistently profitable. Could you share how are you able to journal and report your data so that it will in the long term make you profitable. What data are the most important and what webite/platform do you use to measure your progress. Thank you very much