EURUSD London Session Manipulation (AMD)

In my manual trading I use, for sometimes now, supply & demand that is rules based.
I like ICT concepts but, based on how was explained by him, was too subjective for me.
You took some parts of it and built around a repeatable rule based strategy. Well done.
Looking forward to it

Thanks, Merka!

At the end of the day, it all comes down to building a clear thesis and backtesting the hell out of it. Honestly, even 'simple' concepts like supply & demand or trendlines can be highly profitable—as long as there’s a structured playbook behind them.

From there, it’s all about discipline, belief in your system, and flawless execution and trade management.

Is your edge proven to be profitable? Have you gathered solid data on it?

2 Trades Today:
1.5R Win on GBPCHF
Break Even on EURUSD

GBPCHF Short:
Executed after a clean pre-9AM GMT manipulation of the Asia High at the 50% level of the current bearish H1 A-B leg.
The manipulation aligned perfectly with a NWOG and H4 inverted FVG retest (weekly gap following a downside break) and showed divergence as extra confluence.

I unnecessarily widened my SL slightly—likely a subconscious attempt to “give the trade more room”—but it only dragged out the trade duration. Still, it played out nicely.

Yesterday’s low was a clear target, and I exited just below the Asia Low at roughly 1.6R. Could’ve let it run to full 2R, but a solid trade nonetheless.

EURUSD Short:
Setup was very similar. Asia High got manipulated right at 8AM GMT, followed by a strong bearish M15 candle and a sell signal.

This occurred at the 50% retracement of a bearish H1 A-B move, confluencing with an H4 inverted FVG—textbook short zone.

Price initially dropped, then pulled back to the manipulation OB. Some time after that I closed the trade at breakeven—mainly because I had already secured a win on GBPCHF and didn’t want to give back profits.

In hindsight, I should’ve stuck to the plan or trailed my SL to the 9:45 GMT high, which would’ve resulted in a small 0.5R loss instead of an emotionally driven exit.
Still working on minimizing micromanagement and letting trades hit TP or SL without interference.

Attaching screenshots of both trades. On to the next one!

Two full losses today—both entries executed according to plan.

GBPCHF:
Took a short from a premium location after price mitigated an H4 inverted FVG and swept both the Asia High and several weak M15 highs (phantom trendline liquidity).
The trade gave about 1R in profit before sharply reversing and stopping me out ever so slightly. It has since once again dropped. Well, it is what it is.

EURUSD:
Went long from a less-than-ideal spot—still in premium of the current H1 leg. After three failed pushes lower, we got two consecutive bullish M15 candles, with the buy signal printing on the second. Entered, but it quickly resulted in a loss.

I was a bit late to both setups due to a hectic day at the office and couldn’t monitor the charts closely during the morning session. Still, the entries were valid and aligned with the plan, with SLs set at the similar levels the original entries would have had.

It’s just one of those days where the market doesn't cooperate.
Fortunately, the backtested data reminds me that days like this are part of the process.
The key is to journal, shake it off, and come back tomorrow with a clear mind and a positive mindset.

Hi, I am not sure if you noticed but I'm subscribed to you because I like how you journal. I enjoy reading fellow traders' thoughts and I try to learn from guys like you. Unlike many of the fake gurus and scammers who masquerade as professionals/successful 100% traders, you are willing to provide a real and transparent view of your journey.

In any case, you are still green for the week, for the month and since deposit. Keep going, I'm sure you will come out on top; I have faith in you.

Depending on a single indicator (especially a modified version) may give false signals in fast-moving markets.

Hey, thanks so much for the kind words—I truly appreciate it!

I'm already seeing the huge benefits of this thread and using it as a journal. It’s helping me stay accountable and disciplined. Honestly, the last thing I’d want is to come here and explain why I overtraded or overleveraged after breaking my own rules. I’ve struggled for too long with discipline and self-sabotage, and I’m fully committed to changing that.

As you can probably tell, I’m more excited about the psychological wins than the technical ones. The technical side is covered—I’ve done the backtesting and forward testing. Now it’s all about sticking to the process, showing up with consistency, and staying sharp mentally.

This thread will be about full transparency—or nothing at all.
I appreciate you being a subscriber!

Exactly—that’s why my strategy has a win rate of around 45–50%. It’s the positive risk-to-reward that makes it profitable over a larger sample size.

So far, after backtesting 36 months, the system is up 280R—averaging about 7.8R per month with a 44% win rate.

No need to chase some holy grail or aim for a super high win rate. I’m more than happy with these results.

What’s your experience trading manipulation reversals? Do you ever wait for additional confluence (e.g., volume, HTF alignment) beyond the M15 signal?

Strategy Update — Friday, July 11th

EURUSD:
No valid setup during the London session today. Surprisingly tight range — less than 30 pips of movement, with no sweep of Asia’s high or low. I stayed disciplined and didn’t force anything outside the system.

GBPCHF:
Buy signal printed following a clean sweep of Asia Low around 8AM UK time. I followed the plan and entered at the M15 candle close. Trade was invalidated within 15 minutes—classic fake move. Still, the signal was aligned with the rules and backtested strategy. Took the -1R loss as part of the game.


Weekly Performance Recap
EURUSD:

1. 4 trades available
2. 1 day with no entry
3. Results:
    - 2 × full losses (-2R)
    - 1 × 0.5R loss
    - 1 × 2R win
4. Net: -0.5R

GBPCHF:

1. 5 trades available
2. Results:
    - 2 × full losses (-2R)
    - 3 × 2R wins (+6R)
3. Net: +4R
   (That’s 2 profitable weeks in a row for GBPCHF — Week 27 delivered +1R)

Total across both pairs: +3.5R available


My Execution:

1. I took 7 of the 9 valid trades
2. Results:
    - 3 wins
    - 3 losses
    - 1 break-even
3. Net result: +1R

Key Takeaway:
The main area I need to work on is letting my winning trades run to full TP (2R). Cutting trades early—even at 1.5R—limits my edge and profitability. To hit my long-term growth targets, I need to fully capitalize on those high-probability moves when they show up. Consistency in execution is just as important as strategy rules.

Attaching Friday’s screenshots. Onward!

Hi, thanks for asking!

No, I don’t rely on any additional confirmation—the M15 indicator signal is the only trigger I need to execute a trade.
I’m fully aware that about 50% of those signals are fakeouts, but after thoroughly backtesting this approach, I know it’s still profitable over time.

In the past, I experimented with adding extra layers of confluence, but it only led to overcomplicating the system and giving myself more reasons to hesitate or trade based on discretion—which I’m actively trying to avoid. The Market Cipher indicator I use does a solid job of signaling exhaustion and potential reversals. That’s enough for me at this stage.

By keeping things mechanical and rule-based, I’m able to stay consistent and trust the data behind the system.

Do you trade manipulation reversals (AMD) too?

What is your analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair?

I don’t make price predictions—I believe no one truly knows what the market will do next.

That said, from a technical standpoint, we’ve seen consistent dollar weakness since the start of the year, which has driven EURUSD higher.

After a strong bullish run in the second half of June, price is now pulling back and has just tapped the 50% (or Discount level) of my current bullish daily swing—I've marked this on the chart.
From here, we could see a continuation of bullish momentum. Alternatively, price might dig deeper into the extreme of the daily A-B leg to mitigate a Weekly Inside Bar (LTF range) and an unmitigated New Week Opening Gap before reversing and continuing upward.

I’m not going to speculate on which scenario plays out. Instead, I’ll wait and react to what price action is showing when I sit down at the charts at 7AM GMT and position myself accordingly.

For full transparency: I’m currently in a long on EURUSD sitting at around 1R in profit.

Strategy Update — Monday, July 14th

EURUSD:
Frankfurt manipulated Sunday Low, which had already taken out Friday’s Low, forming a potential HTF interim low. London pushed price higher at 8AM GMT, supporting the idea of a reversal.
Buy signal printed — I entered with SL below Frankfurt Low. Price stalled just under Asia High and ranged for the rest of the day inside the New Week Opening Gap. I held the position overnight.

At today’s (Tuesday) London Open, a Sell signal printed. Since holding two opposing trades isn’t something I encountered often during backtesting, I decided to close both.
Short closed at +1R. Long closed around break-even.

Not proud of this decision — it was emotionally driven, motivated by wanting to recover from last week’s drawdown and a psychological reaction to seeing my account drop below $300. Still, it’s something to reflect on and learn from.

GBPCHF:
Buy signal printed early in the session following two clean sweeps of lows. I entered a minute before M15 candle close as price pushed higher — acceptable within my playbook if I’m confident the signal will print.
Initial move looked promising, but momentum faded. Price slowly reversed and hit SL around 1PM GMT.
A clean -1R loss, but executed fully according to plan — happy with that.

Overall:

1. 2 trades taken
2. 1 win (+1R) - Tuesday
3. 1 break-even
4. 1 full loss (-1R)
   Net: roughly flat

Key takeaway:
Happy with my execution on GBPCHF. Less so with EURUSD management — closing based on emotion is something I need to work on.
Still, journaling these decisions helps me stay accountable and focused on process over outcome.

Attaching screenshots from TV and executions from MT5.
Let’s keep executing.

Strategy Update — Tuesday, July 16th

EURUSD:
Early Sell signal printed after a very minor Frankfurt Open sweep — no strong displacement, just a pip or two. Still, signal was valid per the system, so I entered.
I manually closed the trade at +1R because I was still holding Monday’s long and didn’t want double exposure. This was an emotional decision aimed at recovering Monday’s -1R loss. Not proud of it — acting on emotion is something I’m working to eliminate.
The trade either would’ve:

1. Hit SL before reversing to full TP
   or
2. Barely survived and hit full 2R TP later in the session.

In either case, a second entry was available after a much cleaner sweep of Frankfurt High (my original SL), plus bearish divergence — this setup was stronger.
It reached 2R just before the Inflation News release, which I don’t hold through (alongside NFP) due to high volatility and slippage risk. I would have manually closed just before news, locking in 2R.

System result: +1R (after -1R loss and +2R win)
My result: +1R (early emotional close)

GBPCHF:
Very clean manipulation at London Open, right at the NWOG. Price swept Asia Low and reversed sharply. Strong M15 bullish close with clear displacement — I entered at candle close, with SL below the manipulation low.

I held to full 2R TP, hit near London Close.

Very happy with this trade: followed my process, trusted my system, and more importantly — didn’t watch the trade unfold. Working on this discipline to let trades play out without micromanaging. One of my better executions in recent memory.


Daily Recap:

1. 2 trades taken
    • EURUSD: +1R
    • GBPCHF: +2R
   Total: +3R

Key Takeaway:
Excellent execution on GBPCHF — trusted the process, ignored price fluctuations, let the system work.
EURUSD was emotionally managed — early close to feel “better” after a red day. Reminder: emotional trades always come at a cost. Stick to the rules.

As late great Mike Douglas once said “When you genuinely accept risk, you will be at peace with any outcome.”


Screenshots attached — onward!

Strategy Update — Wednesday, July 17th

EURUSD:
Very clean Asia High manipulation right at London Open. Shortly after, a Sell Signal was printed on a bearish M15 doji — textbook setup.
Unfortunately, I was away from the charts when it happened. When I returned, I saw a strong bearish candle with displacement — clear directional intent for the session.
Price pulled back to the original entry zone (extreme OB mitigation), offering a second chance. I hesitated and didn’t take the trade — a mistake. The signal had printed and my system allows re-entry on a valid pullback. I didn’t execute.

The short hit full 2R TP roughly 40 minutes before the 1:30 PM PPI news — exactly how it should play out.

System result: +2R
My result: Missed trade

GBPCHF:
Frankfurt Open gave a clean manipulation wick into H1 Order Block and this week's Opening Gap — high confluence area. Price failed to close above Asia High, added divergence, and printed a Sell Signal at London Open (8AM GMT). I entered at candle close.

Price ranged most of the session and slowly invalidated the bearish structure, eventually hitting SL for a full 1R loss.

Despite the loss, this was a perfect execution — everything aligned, and I followed the process exactly. This is the kind of trade I’d take 100 times again.

System result: -1R
My result: -1R


Daily Recap:

1. System:
    • 1 × 2R win
    • 1 × 1R loss
    Net: +1R

1. My Execution:
    • 1 missed trade (EURUSD win)
    • 1 loss (GBPCHF)
    Net: -1R

Key Takeaway:
Missed opportunity on EURUSD due to hesitation after a valid re-entry was available.
Clean execution on GBPCHF despite the loss — no regrets on that one.

Not the best day for my performance, but the system continues to prove its edge.

Time to reset, stay focused, and show up tomorrow ready to execute.

Onward!

I have concluded backtesting EURUSD. I went back as far as possible on the M15 timeframe, which I use for execution — covering the period from January 2021 to June 2025.

The results are very promising:
Total trades: 1129 over 54 months
Average trades/month: 22
Days with no entry: 123 (≈ 2.3 per month)


Performance Overview

1.5R TP strategy
Wins: 560
Losses: 539
Win rate: 50%
Total gain: +310.6R
Avg monthly gain: +5.8R

2R TP strategy
Wins: 486
Losses: 582
Win rate: 43%
Total gain: +388.8R
Avg monthly gain: +7.2R


Entry Time Insights (CET / GMT+1)

1. The majority of trades were taken between 9–10 AM (417 trades) and 10–11 AM (320 trades) — accounting for 65% of all entries.
2. Afternoon trades (executed after 12 PM until 1 AM) were less frequent (8% of total), but showed the highest win rates:
   1. 66% WR at 1.5R TP
   2. 57% WR at 2R TP

   
   
   

3. Worst performing window: 10–11 AM, with only 45% WR (1.5R) and 39% WR (2R).
4. 9–10 AM executions had win rates in line with the overall average.

Takeaway: although afternoon trades are rare, they’re highly profitable — worth the wait!


Day-of-Week Patterns

1. Trade frequency is fairly balanced across the week, with Tuesdays having a slight edge (21%) and Fridays being the slowest (18%).
2. In terms of performance:
   1. Fridays had the worst win rates:
      1. 46% at 1.5R
      2. 40% at 2R

   2. Wednesdays performed best:
      1. 53% at 1.5R
      2. 46% at 2R

      
      

Despite the weak Friday stats, there was still a solid gain of +42.8R (1.5R TP) and +54R (2R TP) over 54 months — still very much worth trading.


Monthly Performance Highlights

1. Best months (based on avg net gain):
   1. March: +8.9R (1.5R), +12.1R (2R)
   2. April: +7.5R, +10.9R
   3. October: +9.3R, +8.1R

   
   

2. Weakest months:
   1. November (4 years of data):
      1. -0.5R (1.5R), +0.6R (2R) — consistently underperforming
      2. Consider reducing risk or skipping trading altogether — or just take a holiday in sunny Thailand

      
      

   2. February also underwhelmed:
      1. +2.7R (1.5R), +3.2R (2R) — maybe a good time to ski in the Alps?

      
      

M15 Divergence (with Market Cipher)
I tracked whether M15 divergence appeared between price and Market Cipher signals.

1. Divergence showed up in 40% of all trades
2. When it appeared, it delivered the majority of profits

At 2R TP:

1. 40% of trades (with divergence) generated 54% of profits
2. The remaining 60% (without divergence) produced 46%

At 1.5R TP:

1. Same 40% of trades produced a massive 62% of total profits

While divergence isn't a requirement in my system, the data proves it’s a high-value confluence.


Consecutive Losses: Mental Prep
To better prepare emotionally for drawdowns, I gathered data on consecutive losing streaks using real trades and probability modeling.
Observed streaks (out of 1129 trades, 2R TP strategy):

1. Max streak: 12 losses (Feb 2021 & May 2023)
2. 10+ losses: 2 times
3. 9 losses: once (May–June 2025)
4. 8 losses: 3 times
5. 7 losses: 2 times
6. 6 losses: 4 times
7. 5 losses: 6 times
8. 4 losses: 20 times
9. 3 losses: 29 times

I compared it to a statistical benchmark for a 43% win rate across 1,100 trades:

1. 3 losses in a row — expected ~87 times
2. 4 in a row — 50 times
3. 5 in a row — 28 times
4. 6 in a row — 16 times
5. 7 in a row — 9 times
6. 8 in a row — 5 times
7. 9 in a row — 3 times
8. 10 in a row — 2 times

I also ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with 1,100 trades at 43% WR:

1. A 12-loss streak occurred in 15.6% of runs
2. 10+ losses occurred in 67% of runs

Takeaways:

1. The system behaves within statistical expectations
2. Long losing streaks are rare but very real — mentally preparing for 10–12 consecutive losses is not optional
3. Surprisingly fewer-than-expected shorter streaks — possibly due to strategy structure or built-in filters

Final Thoughts:
The backtest gives me full confidence in the strategy's edge, especially over the long run. Afternoon trades and divergence setups offer outsized returns relative to their frequency. November, however, might be best spent away from charts entirely.
Now that EURUSD is done, I’m ready to move on to the next pair — GBPCHF .
Onward.

Strategy Update — Thursday, July 17th

EURUSD:
Frankfurt Open gave a sharp manipulation of Asia Low right at the OTE level (ICT-based Fib retracement zone), aligning with Weekly ISB — a high-probability area for reversals.
The move back up wasn’t particularly strong, but a Buy Signal was printed and I entered according to the system. Unfortunately, bullish momentum didn’t follow, and the trade was stopped out in the afternoon for a full -1R loss.

GBPCHF:
Tough day here with two losing trades, both by the book.

1. First Entry:
   Exceptionally clean manipulation of both Asia High and Previous Day High, followed by three consecutive bearish M15 candles. I took the short setup per the rules, but price failed to continue and I was stopped out near the end of my session.
2. Second Entry:
   Around 1PM, price swept the London High again, with a confirmed divergence (a must for re-entries), triggering another Sell Signal. I re-entered short, but it turned out to be a fake move, resulting in another full -1R loss.

System-compliant?
Outcome? -2R on GBPCHF

Daily Recap:

1. EURUSD: 1 × loss (-1R)
2. GBPCHF: 2 × losses (-2R)
   Net: -3R

Key Takeaway:

Not an easy day — 3 full losses, and the account dropped from $400+ to just above $200.

But:
Every trade followed the backtested playbook
No emotional or impulsive decisions
Executed with discipline and integrity

This is part of the statistical edge — losses are not only expected but necessary to reach long-term profitability.

Logging it here and moving forward with a fresh, focused mindset tomorrow.

It's just one of that days and unfortunately difficult to avoid.
With 3 losses, how do you managed to drop the account by almost 50% (from 400 is to around 200)?
Thanks

Judging by your posts and your strategy, today might be the perfect day for shorts. Sweeping highs during London session in an overall bearish market. EURUSD should fall hard come the following weeks according to institutional fundamentals as retail traders are at euphoric long extremes while smart money is at a 1 year bearish extreme. We all know how the market loves to manipulate but for swing trades- EURUSD is the perfect market to be shorting