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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #521
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:17am Aug 6, 2007 3:17am
Quoting jacko
Update on this trade:
1.3838 is now the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3788 (1.3838 - 0.0050 = 1.3788).
At the absolute worst, I will I will make a minimum of 88 pips profits less
expenses. (1.3788 - 1.3700 = 88).
...........
Also, should price drop to 1.3750, I am a buyer..
Hi Jacko,
Here is an area of your trading style where I have difficulties:
You are currently a seller if price drops to 1.3788, but a buyer if it drops to 1.3750.
Now I could understand that if 1.3788 was determined from TA or PA, but it isn't - its just a result of using 50pips for the trailing StopLoss.

Also you are nearing a locked in profit (at a 50pips SL) of 100 pips, is this why you are considering changing to a your buy and hold style of a 100pip SL ?

Ian
  • #522
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:32am Aug 6, 2007 3:32am
Quoting Pip Rage
Jacko,
I have a question about Anti-Hedging.How do you handle shake-outs?
Let's assume that your bias is short and your initial short position is taken out by a 50 pip rally. Then the price immediately drops back below your stop-out point and hovers between your stop-out and your original entry point. Assume the long term bearish trend is still valid.
Do you
a) Reset the order at the stop-out point(which is now above the current price)
b) Reset the order at the original entry point(which is still below the current price)
c) Do nothing - just be prepared to either reset the short order at the stop-out point if the price goes up again or look for entirely new set up if the price drops back below your original entry point.
d) none of the above...in which case I'm all ears

I'm a huge fan of this concept and am trying to incorporate it into my own trading style.
Thanks very much.

Ken

Hi Ken,

Firstly, as I said previously to mbalta01 (in post 750), if you have one of these "shake-out", you accept that on very rare occasions, this may happen.

What you do, is sit back and take a look at the situation and decide if you want to enter a brand new trade...then have a break for one day... If you still want to enter the trade 24 hours later, then you should enter the trade. (the 24 hour break stops you taking "revenge" trades).
When you have decided, with a clear and unbiased mind that you want to get back in,then you can get back in at either a) , b), c), or d) outlined in your post...

Secondly, as I have said repeatedly, I don't want everyone to get all carried away and thinking that the A-H strategy is anything exceptional.

It is basically just two components combined into an action plan. They are:
1. A DEFINITE stop loss position (that is, 50 pips trailing from the highest point after a trade is entered)
2. A DEFINITE action plan to recoup any losses (by buying back in at point of Trailing stop loss...for losing trades ONLY...and after the market has dropped and is now coming back in the correct direction).

Again, as I have said repeatedly, I am not doing anything different from what all the good books say.

TO EVERYONE.....I am repeatedly amazed how some people make something so easy, into something sooooo difficult !!!

.
  • #523
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:54am Aug 6, 2007 3:54am
Quoting howard
I believe Jacko is using tick by tick trailing stop not stepped trailing.

Those traders using MT4 can only have tick by tick trailing stop and their computer and MT4 should be running all the time for the trail to work.

Those using FXCM or other brokers with the same application can set stepped trailing stops at different intervals, a further advantage is that the stops will be residing on the brokers' servers therefore thay can shut their computers down and the trailing stops still working for them

TO EVERYONE.....I am repeatedly amazed how some people make something so easy, into something sooooo difficult !!! I am starting to get exasperated......


To everyone,

I am a technoMORON.....I do NOT trust computers...

I would not know a MT4 if it jumped up and bit me on the ass !!!!!!

I put my trailing stops in manually every couple of hours. If I am not around, then Mark (my ex-broker) has my access codes to each of my four sets of accounts and can adjust them. If there is a sharp move, then one of the traders at Mark's old brokerage gives him (or me) a quick phone call to give us a heads up. (this little service ensures that we continue to trade with that company).


.
  • #524
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:01am Aug 6, 2007 4:01am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
To All
Many thanks for taking the time to give me your 2 pips worth on the trailing stop issue.

Hi Jacko thanks for clearing that up for me, I/we just assumed the trailing stop moved automatically.

not trying to complicate things, just couldn't see how you were moving your stops.

once again many thanks to all for giving me there time

regards

Jason
MPP
  • #525
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:24am Aug 6, 2007 5:24am
Quoting jacko
Hi Ken,

...then have a break for one day... If you still want to enter the trade 24 hours later, then you should enter the trade. (the 24 hour break stops you taking "revenge" trades).
This is great advice. Wish I had learned this sooner because I've done my share of revenge trading!

Thanks Jacko!
  • #526
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:25am Aug 6, 2007 5:25am
Quote
Thanks, diallist. that makes sense on an individual trade basis, and for that trade in and of itself i am quite happy with any positive result. However, since this trade is taken in order to recoup the loss of the original trade, i have been considering it a 2 part trade... unless we are considering the anti hedge trade as a trade all by itself... for a 15 pip overall loss, thats nothing, i have lost considerably more than that in the past, but lets say both trades are negative then. you start off at 1.3800, price drops straight down to your stop at 1.3750, so you set your ah trade once price comes back, at 1.3750, then it drops straight down again... so now its a 100 pip loss total. are you going to take another ah trade, with 2 lots?
Why 2 lots ? Revenge trading ?
When you lose twice in a row even after using A-H, you may want to take 1-2 days leave.
  • #527
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:45am Aug 6, 2007 10:45am
Quoting jacko
Update on this trade:

1.3838 is now the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3788 (1.3838 - 0.0050 = 1.3788).

At the absolute worst, I will I will make a minimum of 88 pips profits less
expenses. (1.3788 - 1.3700 = 88).


I am considering turning these into "buy and holds" by increasing Trailing Stop Loss from 50 pips to 100 pips. Not sure yet, am keeping 50 pips there for a little while.

Also, should price drop to 1.3750, I am a buyer.


.


Market at 1.3790. Am about to be stopped out at 1.3788 for 88 pip profit.


.
  • #528
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:42am Aug 6, 2007 11:42am
A revenge trade is one or more in which you turn around and jump back in the market after being stopped out. You dont let your emotions cool down so you can try to evaluate why you were stopped out. (news,etc,etc) AH is probably the easiest, best, simplest answer to being stopped out. It gives YOU time to let those emotions settle as well so you wont take " revenge trades " It is the best thing I've seen to help you GET BACK your 50 pips. You might STRONGLY, consider starting from the beginning of this thread and read it again and again and again. ALL of the answers are in this thread already. Most repeated over and over and over. Its readlly not fair to Jacko for us to keep baggering him to snswer the same things over and over. Also there are many questions ask that should be asked in the BEGINNERS FORUM. Sure would help lighten this thread and keep Jacko around longer. I wish you all the best!
  • #529
  • Aug 6, 2007 1:07pm Aug 6, 2007 1:07pm
Quoting skyline
I don't want to know how much that 88 pips worth for you !
Well, he normally trades 150 lots and that will be 150 * 88 * 10 = $132,000.00.

Now, we just have to put out faith on the trend following technique as Jacko has already demonstrated in this thread that it does work! (Thanks for showing us, Jacko!)
  • #530
  • Aug 6, 2007 1:57pm Aug 6, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting jacko
Also, should price drop to 1.3750, I am a buyer.
.

Because 50% retrace from the low on the 30th of July to todays high is 1.3725?

Neil.
  • #531
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:21pm Aug 6, 2007 3:21pm
One small correction to my previous post, the 50% fib level at 1.3760 was actually based on the move from 1.3682 on 8/3/07 to 1.3838 today, best seen on a 4hr chart and not the move from 1.3608 to 1.3838.
sorry for any confusion
Camptrader
  • #532
  • Aug 7, 2007 1:35am Aug 7, 2007 1:35am
Quoting goodtiding5
Well, he normally trades 150 lots and that will be 150 * 88 * 10 = $132,000.00.

Now, we just have to put our faith on the trend following technique as Jacko has already demonstrated in this thread that it does work! (Thanks for showing us, Jacko!)

Dude, he is one freakish successful trader. cool as ice too.
watch. Learn .then trade. make money.
  • #533
  • Edited 3:42am Aug 7, 2007 2:04am | Edited 3:42am
Lots of numbers floating around, and lots of question marks about those numbers.

Just my opinion about what I understand from this thread:

The magic is not in the A-H strategy. The magic depends on whether or not you still trust the trend after your initial order is stopped out.

The A-H strategy just gives you opportunity to pause and reconsider whether or not you still trust in the trend.

It saves you from experiencing drawdown beyond your stop.

It taps you on the shoulder and asks you "Would you like to play again? "

When the trend stops you out at first, she is saying to you, "Do you still love me?" and, "Will you still love me in the morning? "

If you say "yes" and take the A-H by buying in where you got stopped out, you've bought in at a discount to your initial position. Not to say that you are buying into profit; not yet! You have bought into loss, because you still have to cover the 50 pip loss from your initial position.

But you still trust the trend. And that is the point, at least ít's the point as I understand it.

What if you're long and the trend turns back and stops you out, only to immediately take off in the direction that you hoped when you placed your initial trade, without ever going even ten pips below where you got stopped out?

Would you restrain yourself from entering in again, just because price didn't move at least 50 pips below where you first got stopped out?

And if that trend then continued for the next half year, up a thousand pips from where you first got stopped out, would you still wait for it to retrace to 50 pips below your first stop-out before getting in again?

Of course not!

My take on this method is that the trend is Queen and the A-H strategy is the Queen's servant, not the other way around.

If you follow what I'm saying, you will see that it doesn't matter whether you got in at either this level or that level. All that matters is that you got in!

You wait for a retracement before getting in, because that is the common sense thing to do. But when the retracement comes, you don't pick the bottom of the retracement (you can't), instead you just give it your best shot and then navigate it with common sense and intelligence until the trend takes off again in your favor. It's that simple! Why stress out about 50 pips here or there on a retracement, when the trend has already moved thousands of pips up til now, and will run at least another thousand from here on out?

The A-H strategy helps you to sort out your thoughts about the trend and about your position in the trend when the trend brushes up against you for a whisper. That's all.
Pip my ride.
  • #534
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:10am Aug 7, 2007 8:10am
Hi Jacko

I have quietly been watching and learning your approach to Forex trading for months - on this thread and previous posts.

I just feel I ought to thank you for making FX so simple - I really believe that the way to win at this game is to disregard all those thousands of indicators, systems, EA's etcetera out there and focus on trend direction and price action.

I really believe that the vast majority of FX traders go wrong because they confuse themselves with too much information.

So thanks again for sharing and I wish continued success to you and all who follow your methods.

Stevo
  • #535
  • Aug 7, 2007 3:29pm Aug 7, 2007 3:29pm
  •  tazmet
  • | Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Gold Member - Solid Gold Baby! | 47 Posts
Hi Jacko. I stumbled upon a post in Forex Factory that basically said to read everything Jacko wrote. So, I figured I'd better find out who this guy is.

I read your system and have to say at first it sounded too simple to be true. After all, I always find that masters never reveal all of their secrets but give you just enough to be mediocre. But, since I'm demo trading I thought what the heck and placed a sell order on GBP/JPY yesterday at 241.00. I closed it today at plus 125 pips. That got my attention. I need to test and study a lot more, but I'll definitely be following this thread.
My business model Get pips => Keep Pips => Repeat
  • #536
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:07am Aug 8, 2007 11:07am
Quoting Matiasfx
I longed Euro at 1.3750 (3754 actually) at 50% fib and sup area...trailing my stop 50 pips, already locked 17 pips

THanks Jacko. Keep it up

Matty
Same here long EU 13753.... thanks Jacko.....


I'm still learning ... this thread definitely helps me a lot
.... Thanks again Jacko ....
  • #537
  • Aug 9, 2007 11:13am Aug 9, 2007 11:13am
Quoting DrainBamage
Looks like Eur/Usd goes to 50% level from June 13, which is about 1.3550? What do you think?
my brain is more damaged ! did you arrive at that figure by adding June 13 price and the record high and then divided by 2 ?

so 1.3550 will be good for a buy but will it fall that low ?

also, why do people say 1.3700 is good for a buy then ?
  • #538
  • Aug 9, 2007 2:46pm Aug 9, 2007 2:46pm
Quoting DrainBamage
Looks like Eur/Usd goes to 50% level from June 13, which is about 1.3550? What do you think?
I think Drain Bamage is correct, I also get 1.3550 as the next likely area of support. I get that because the 50% fib of the move from 6/13/07 to 7/24/07 is 1.3557, it was also a resistance area from 6/5/07. 1.3550 should also put us close to the lower tredline on the daily chart if it takes about a week to get there.

I also strongly considered the 1.3500 level since it is such a nice round number and midway between 1.4 and 1.3, but I almost feel it is too obvious and there will be too many buy orders just above it.

Please take my opinion with a grain of salt since I am very new to this great system developed by Jacko.

Constructive criticism about my thought process would be greatly welcomed by Jacko or experieced members, I am trying to learn to fish.
Camptrader
Camptrader
  • #539
  • Aug 9, 2007 3:44pm Aug 9, 2007 3:44pm
Please remember why Jacko quit posting in the other forum. Newbies came in and took over.

New traders are always welcome at FF, and many members here, including myself are more than willing to help out. But we old-fogies around here also need the new trader's help to keep threads on topic.

Questions about how to draw trendlines and fib retracements do not belong in this thread. If you don't know these basics, then please either Google for the answer (plenty of tutorials out there), or ask in the Forex Beginner Q&A subforum here at Forex Factory.

Jacko is sharing his method of driving a high performance car. Don't ask how to change a tire or check the oil.

Please remember why Jacko quit posting in the other forum. Newbies came in and took over. Let's not let that happen here please.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #540
  • Aug 9, 2007 4:36pm Aug 9, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting diallist
New traders are always welcome at FF, and many members here, including myself are more than willing to help out. But we old-fogies around here also need the new trader's help to keep threads on topic.

Questions about how to draw trendlines and fib retracements do not belong in this thread. If you don't know these basics, then please either Google for the answer (plenty of tutorials out there), or ask in the Forex Beginner Q&A subforum here at Forex Factory.

Jacko is sharing his method of driving a high performance car. Don't ask how to change a tire or check the oil.
Could someone please arrange to have this post show as a BILLBOARD at the top of every page of every thread NOT in the Beginner Q&A subforum!
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