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The Swamp

  • #123,721
  • Jul 9, 2025 5:41pm Jul 9, 2025 5:41pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} i will see if i get any sell signal when we get there. will be upset if that is the end of the correction. I expect more from the bear!
Bear can double top also. I got a 2.66 reading on the 6month candle favoring shorts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,722
  • Jul 9, 2025 5:42pm Jul 9, 2025 5:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bear can double top also. I got a 2.66 reading on the 6month candle favoring shorts
double top at 1830 you mean?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,723
  • Jul 9, 2025 5:57pm Jul 9, 2025 5:57pm
I do see another attempt up but was thinking it will come after 1630
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,724
  • Jul 9, 2025 7:37pm Jul 9, 2025 7:37pm
Quoting johncen
I do see another attempt up but was thinking it will come after 1630
possible it could run back. That's why I'm looking for 40 pips mostly. So it dont matter where it goes mostly. If I get a sign it will have a large correction i will probably hold some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,725
  • Jul 9, 2025 7:44pm Jul 9, 2025 7:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} possible it could run back. That's why I'm looking for 40 pips mostly. So it dont matter where it goes mostly. If I get a sign it will have a large correction i will probably hold some.
please share your analysis!!! Thank you Gator
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,726
  • Jul 10, 2025 2:26am Jul 10, 2025 2:26am
Quoting johncen
{quote} please share your analysis!!! Thank you Gator
Yesterday I thought it would go to 1748.. and likely tire back to 1713 before last hour. It did make 1748, but did not close below 1713. Its stupid to think it may miss 1713 or 1714 LC now. I do have that thought. Because pa makes these too often. The 1h bulls did relax.. the 2h bears look strong. For all that to work. 1726 is in the way. There is a flag that can be bullish in look on the 1h. If bears cant take 1726. I have to think 1761 may still happen or even 1795.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,727
  • Jul 10, 2025 2:33am Jul 10, 2025 2:33am
I thought 1748 rise, with a fall and 12h close below 1713. That would be bearish I thought. Now since it has not retaken 1713. It has a chance to bounce. It missed 1713.. It formed a flag instead
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,728
  • Jul 10, 2025 2:35am Jul 10, 2025 2:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yesterday I thought it would go to 1748.. and likely tire back to 1713 before last hour. It did make 1748, but did not close below 1713. Its stupid to think it may miss 1713 or 1714 LC now. I do have that thought. Because pa makes these too often. The 1h bulls did relax.. the 2h bears look strong. For all that to work. 1726 is in the way. There is a flag that can be bullish in look on the 1h. If bears cant take 1726. I have to think 1761 may still happen or even 1795.
i have got this i think it aligns with your thoughts
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,729
  • Jul 10, 2025 2:53am Jul 10, 2025 2:53am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i have got this i think it aligns with your thoughts {image}
My 4h told me and still does to sell. A bullish flag is not in the 4h direction. On the other hand the day, and 12h are bullish to me still. Maybe both can be true. A run to test 1761 or 1795 before a run to 1714 0r 13
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,730
  • Jul 10, 2025 2:54am Jul 10, 2025 2:54am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My 4h told me and still does to sell. A bullish flag is not in the 4h direction. On the other hand the day, and 12h are bullish to me still. Maybe both can be true. A run to test 1761 or 1795 before a run to 1714 0r 13
i guess this could be the case, i have always prepared for one last leg up if this is the top
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,731
  • Jul 10, 2025 2:57am Jul 10, 2025 2:57am
Quoting gatorinla
The day and week are not yet aligned.. to the above chart.. 6mith q and month are. mth so far. Watching to see if it develops. This aliens with COT sells by larger traders I may fade a early london rise {image}
i m just referencing back to this chart you have shared plus cot, it takes time for everything to align.
if u look at daily, that top is a bit weak so it will take some time to confirm
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,732
  • Jul 10, 2025 3:00am Jul 10, 2025 3:00am
bears need to take pa below 1726.. or it should bounce.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,733
  • Jul 10, 2025 3:22am Jul 10, 2025 3:22am
Quoting johncen
{quote} i m just referencing back to this chart you have shared plus cot, it takes time for everything to align. if u look at daily, that top is a bit weak so it will take some time to confirm
Yeah and if your short from 1830 and hanging on your doing well. But within the high there, and the low since. Your in the gassy belly. The bears did come at 1748.. There are probably more at 1756. bulls probably need a close above 1761.. If they can do that. 1795.. pa is near 1728 as i type.. near 1726 that may repeal it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,734
  • Jul 10, 2025 4:47am Jul 10, 2025 4:47am
Quoting gatorinla
bears need to take pa below 1726.. or it should bounce. {image}
1713 ticked! What next? Can bear carry on?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,735
  • Jul 10, 2025 5:13am Jul 10, 2025 5:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah and if your short from 1830 and hanging on your doing well. But within the high there, and the low since. Your in the gassy belly. The bears did come at 1748.. There are probably more at 1756. bulls probably need a close above 1761.. If they can do that. 1795.. pa is near 1728 as i type.. near 1726 that may repeal it
I had expected this move to 1713 earlier before the 12h close. The 4h is still holding the bearish bias. 1727 now could have some R area value. But it make be stuck -1713.. around 1699 it may be able to make it back to 1727. Its not a trade for me without a sign. 1727 could be a short as long as the 4h remains bearish.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,736
  • Jul 10, 2025 6:04am Jul 10, 2025 6:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I had expected this move to 1713 earlier before the 12h close. The 4h is still holding the bearish bias. 1727 now could have some R area value. But it make be stuck -1713.. around 1699 it may be able to make it back to 1727. Its not a trade for me without a sign. 1727 could be a short as long as the 4h remains bearish.
it came close to 1699. I have a bounce signal. So I would expect 1713 as a scalp. But 1727 has merit too. Also if the larger time frames above a 4h may bring 175x or may 1795.. I dont know.. The 4h is very bearish.. Maybe selling into it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,737
  • Jul 10, 2025 8:02am Jul 10, 2025 8:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it came close to 1699. I have a bounce signal. So I would expect 1713 as a scalp. But 1727 has merit too. Also if the larger time frames above a 4h may bring 175x or may 1795.. I dont know.. The 4h is very bearish.. Maybe selling into it..
bear did well….. phew
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,738
  • Jul 10, 2025 10:08am Jul 10, 2025 10:08am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear did well….. phew
it likely scared some on the bounce. I dont have a lot of time to post..I did think it would bounce maybe at 1660.. it hasn't hit it yet. And the surprise there may be gone now. When you euro was younger. i would of waited for 1758 now. On purpose or accident, or an algo.1658 is 100 away from 1758. I'm working on a few things and dont have a long signal. If I get one and the 4h relaxes.. I could consider this. Maybe Monday
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,739
  • Edited 3:50pm Jul 10, 2025 12:42pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it likely scared some on the bounce. I dont have a lot of time to post..I did think it would bounce maybe at 1660.. it hasn't hit it yet. And the surprise there may be gone now. When you euro was younger. i would of waited for 1758 now. On purpose or accident, or an algo.1658 is 100 away from 1758. I'm working on a few things and dont have a long signal. If I get one and the 4h relaxes.. I could consider this. Maybe Monday
I guess we will get there i have 1630-40
it is highly likely we will bounce near there

The question is whether we will hit 1758 first or 1660 first
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,740
  • Jul 10, 2025 4:13pm Jul 10, 2025 4:13pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} I guess we will get there i have 1630-40 it is highly likely we will bounce near there The question is whether we will hit 1758 first or 1660 first
When the euro was younger. 1756 and some exhaustion was what I would wait for. 1427/28 has popped more recent in pa moves. Above it sustained may be a breakout
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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