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The Swamp

  • #123,641
  • Jul 3, 2025 7:11am Jul 3, 2025 7:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think it was positioned to go north before.
same here, it looks like it was set to break above 1810
20 more mins to go…
i guess it can simply go either way so best to stay out
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,642
  • Jul 3, 2025 7:13am Jul 3, 2025 7:13am
Quoting gatorinla
another tight one 1867/68x. tight stop..I took a chance on 1786.. but it wants 1767 it looks like
I canceled this before news.. At some point 1738 should attract it.. It has a chance to support it. Below it can resist.. But 1720 can too
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,643
  • Jul 3, 2025 7:25am Jul 3, 2025 7:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think it was positioned to go north before.
Whats your Stop loss for this positioning to fall.
  • #123,644
  • Jul 3, 2025 7:37am Jul 3, 2025 7:37am
Quoting Tospyj
{quote} Whats your Stop loss for this positioning to fall.
a little below 1720
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,645
  • Jul 3, 2025 8:10am Jul 3, 2025 8:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a little below 1720
nice catch Gator, i have 1720 on my chart but was too
chicken to long!
i guess daily close might give indication to the next step. For now it seems like the recent bull trend should have ended and we started a bit of correction
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,646
  • Jul 3, 2025 9:03am Jul 3, 2025 9:03am
Quoting johncen
{quote} nice catch Gator, i have 1720 on my chart but was too chicken to long! i guess daily close might give indication to the next step. For now it seems like the recent bull trend should have ended and we started a bit of correction
London indicated long. But with NFP being usd positive. Helped it test those attractions. The new law should hurt the treasury market (3.4 T +higher borrowing rates). Rates should be higher. Causing even more havoc. That should usd negative for a little longer. Or at least until a ceiling is found. If it makes it above 1797.. it may pump more Monday
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,647
  • Jul 3, 2025 9:13am Jul 3, 2025 9:13am
I got some R at 1791.. a 30 min close above beats it
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,648
  • Jul 3, 2025 10:16am Jul 3, 2025 10:16am
Quoting gatorinla
I got some R at 1791.. a 30 min close above beats it
that move after the drop simply shows bull strength
that drop might look significant but on daily chart it is nothing….

i dnt know where next now while pa stuck in the middle, i didnt get a confirmation that this is the top
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,649
  • Jul 3, 2025 10:28am Jul 3, 2025 10:28am
Checked the smaller tf pa it does look bullish

longer tf bullish too
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,650
  • Jul 5, 2025 4:37am Jul 5, 2025 4:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} London indicated long. But with NFP being usd positive. Helped it test those attractions. The new law should hurt the treasury market (3.4 T +higher borrowing rates). Rates should be higher. Causing even more havoc. That should usd negative for a little longer. Or at least until a ceiling is found. If it makes it above 1797.. it may pump more Monday
Hi Gator, would be keen to get your thought on eu and if you still hold the thoughts that it might pump more on Monday? To me if we gets higher than 1787 and sustained above then likely to go up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,651
  • Jul 6, 2025 2:32pm Jul 6, 2025 2:32pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} Hi Gator, would be keen to get your thought on eu and if you still hold the thoughts that it might pump more on Monday? To me if we gets higher than 1787 and sustained above then likely to go up
Its bullish in all most see. If not for the guy in the bighouse. I would be selling like crazy each bounce. The problem is the bond market, treasuries. They added 10% to the deficit in the bill. Plus they raised the debt ceiling. Now we have a national police force in ICE. Germany had the Brown Shirts. We got ICE. This may not turn out well for the people who believe they are special. Or "it can't happen here" . The frog boils slowly.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,652
  • Edited 3:01pm Jul 6, 2025 2:50pm | Edited 3:01pm
I grade it like this.. 2021 this was a buy candle.. It ran up like crazy before dropping 400 pips in the quarter.. dropping 700 total the next quarter, (later 2700). Compare it to what's happening now. The current sell score is heavy. almost as much as the buy pressure back in 2021. The buy pressure didnt hold it last time. The sell pressure now is about equal to 2021. Something big may be coming.
To the left of the circled candle the pressure was a little over 3. Atm we are near 1.5X that. That -4.5 would probably rise (negatively) if it started to fall.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,653
  • Jul 6, 2025 3:12pm Jul 6, 2025 3:12pm
The day and week are not yet aligned.. to the above chart.. 6mith q and month are. mth so far. Watching to see if it develops. This aliens with COT sells by larger traders
I may fade a early london rise
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,654
  • Jul 6, 2025 3:33pm Jul 6, 2025 3:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
The day and week are not yet aligned.. to the above chart.. 6mith q and month are. mth so far. Watching to see if it develops. This aliens with COT sells by larger traders I may fade a early london rise {image}
i also see a podsible upside but it seems like we are ready for at least a retracement to 1.16 area. Maybe final up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,655
  • Jul 6, 2025 4:10pm Jul 6, 2025 4:10pm
Minor gap up. If above 1790 then i guess we are in better chance to retest 1810 1830 than heading down.
if under 1770 is the bear side
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,656
  • Jul 6, 2025 4:20pm Jul 6, 2025 4:20pm
not my chart but interesting.
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Its all just one persons opinion
  • #123,657
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:06am Jul 7, 2025 2:06am
its too early to tell.. day wise, if for now. it has a shot at returning to 1774. It may just be slightly better than a coin flips odds. but if bought right the s/l may be small. its a bunch of "ifs". if pa is deep enough later it may be worth the risk. 1738 can support as well as be a breakout point. If a breakout, it may not be known for a few days. It also may run back to 1774 to breakout. If not a breakout, it would go there anyway.

It could just run through 1738.. If you believe that. There is an older guy sipping some spirits on the porch around 1774ish . If played right both directions can work. Not now, in a few hours
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,658
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:14am Jul 7, 2025 2:14am
Quoting gatorinla
its too early to tell.. day wise, if for now. it has a shot at returning to 1774. It may just be slightly better than a coin flips odds. but if bought right the s/l may be small. its a bunch of "ifs". if pa is deep enough later it may be worth the risk. 1738 can support as well as be a breakout point. If a breakout, it may not be known for a few days. It also may run back to 1774 to breakout. If not a breakout, it would go there anyway. It could just run through 1738.. If you believe that. There is an older guy sipping some spirits on the porch....
I have 1735 on my chart which could bounce to 177x area
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,659
  • Jul 7, 2025 2:18am Jul 7, 2025 2:18am
Quoting gatorinla
its too early to tell.. day wise, if for now. it has a shot at returning to 1774. It may just be slightly better than a coin flips odds. but if bought right the s/l may be small. its a bunch of "ifs". if pa is deep enough later it may be worth the risk. 1738 can support as well as be a breakout point. If a breakout, it may not be known for a few days. It also may run back to 1774 to breakout. If not a breakout, it would go there anyway. It could just run through 1738.. If you believe that. There is an older guy sipping some spirits on the porch...
looking at those larger 6mth 3mth 1mth charts. Combined with some day action. 1738 can have some meaning if bulls lose it. More than just day action alone can bring. But it may seem like the focus is 1738.. The headfake before can be played.. It's not time yet to play it. 1774 area may be the move before a last time. PA is bullish already, so even if 1738 is about to fall. it may run a last time to 1774..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,660
  • Jul 7, 2025 3:56am Jul 7, 2025 3:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looking at those larger 6mth 3mth 1mth charts. Combined with some day action. 1738 can have some meaning if bulls lose it. More than just day action alone can bring. But it may seem like the focus is 1738.. The headfake before can be played.. It's not time yet to play it. 1774 area may be the move before a last time. PA is bullish already, so even if 1738 is about to fall. it may run a last time to 1774..
bear momemtum is strong at the moment!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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