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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #1,101
  • Edited 3:41pm Jul 2, 2025 3:05pm | Edited 3:41pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Dealing with back and fill conditions gets easier the larger the bar duration. A fixed bar H4 much less devilishness than a M1 or M5, for example. {quote} Well, actually a fixed bar method such as Mebob does require a set time to be a fixed bar. If you're entry signal shifts from day to day then the variables you are using are not the same as those used in a fixed bar strategy.
I trade breakouts only, no retracements, so anything above 15 Min TF requires large Stop Loss if to trade "properly"(do not ask what properly means, as to each its own) and none on FF who "trade" breakouts would be able to handle that MindFu*k that must be conquered trading larger TFs.

My fixed bar for today trade was a momentum bar that I pointed out, it is a fixed bar for my today's purpose. I calculated momentum of the bar and decided this is my fixed momentum bar for today.

Whatever it is, I am giving clues to subs of this thread, there is no need for any indicators or wiggly lines or MAs or trendlines or any other crap that happens in hindsight.., look at this PA, it is obvious why this was a momentum bar that I decided to take advantage of, and as always random but in this case advantageous and favorable outcome. I made 75 pips(points) on it, MM trail me out.
  • #1,102
  • Jul 2, 2025 3:35pm Jul 2, 2025 3:35pm
Quoting turnip15
To hot to hang around. Need sustenance -choc ice or gin and tonic; maybe both. Back tomorrow. Good luck "Mebobbers." {image} {image}
Cheers!
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  • #1,103
  • Jul 2, 2025 4:07pm Jul 2, 2025 4:07pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Cheers! {image}
I see why its called 'Triple' - 11%!!! 3 of those & I would have to forget about the Bourbon & Coke that usually follows a few beers. Good work on the thread all you guys - my daily read here. Keep it going - well done Vid. Nice memorial to RP.
  • #1,104
  • Jul 3, 2025 2:52am Jul 3, 2025 2:52am
Today trade
DAX: 1 (short), BE
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  • #1,105
  • Jul 3, 2025 3:41am Jul 3, 2025 3:41am
Quoting giga
Today trade DAX: 1 (short), BE {image}
My chart seems different to yours - 8:35am Mebob was a profitable short as was the ORB at 8am?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,106
  • Edited 4:47am Jul 3, 2025 3:56am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting vidvad
Below I have copied and pasted the original MeBob rules as found in the Tom Hougaard document referenced in the above post. :

7. If the SP500 closes above the high of the reference bar “highest line”, it is a BUY signal. 8. If the SP500 closes below the low of the reference bar “lowest line”, it is a SELL SHORT signal. 9. The stop loss is placed either at the most recent swing or above/below the reference bar.
Did the original rules specify the maximum number of orders that should be executed per day / MeBob reference bar?

The linked document doesn't provide any information on this.
  • #1,107
  • Edited 4:12am Jul 3, 2025 3:59am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} My chart seems different to yours - 8:35am Mebob was a profitable short as was the ORB at 8am? {image} {image}
I believe giga uses the first 15 Minutes following the DAX open as the reference bar. (08:00-08:15 UK time) and also doesn’t wait for a close outside this range but enters as soon as price breaks out one side of the range and orders placed 4-5 Points above/below the range and the Fibonacci Levels to define SL/TP levels.
  • #1,108
  • Jul 3, 2025 5:22am Jul 3, 2025 5:22am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} I believe giga uses the first 15 Minutes following the DAX open as the reference bar. (08:00-08:15 UK time) and also doesn’t wait for a close outside this range but enters as soon as price breaks out one side of the range and orders placed 4-5 Points above/below the range and the Fibonacci Levels to define SL/TP levels.
Thanks
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,109
  • Edited 8:22am Jul 3, 2025 5:27am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} My chart seems different to yours - 8:35am Mebob was a profitable short as was the ORB at 8am? {image} {image}
Short stopped out
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,110
  • Jul 3, 2025 5:31am Jul 3, 2025 5:31am
Definately no more charts for a while. So many variations now I think I will wait for things to focus.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,111
  • Edited 7:14am Jul 3, 2025 7:03am | Edited 7:14am
Here are a few excerpts from this great topic that I personally find interesting and crucial. I would like to comment on them.

Quoting vidvad
I believe that a key difficulty to the MeBob method strictly applied is the question of risk/reward. Where should we place our stop? Where should we take our profits?
I see it exactly the same way. What's missing here is that not only the risk/reward ratio is crucial, but also how many orders are placed according to the entry setup. Suppose I only execute one order per day and setup, or I place 2, 3, 4, or more orders. This could lead to completely different results, regardless of the risk and reward per trade, and thus significantly influence the overall profitability.

Quoting vidvad
I am convinced that "bad risk reward" is best. The minimum R:R should be a .618 profit to loss ratio
I'm not a supporter of those who claim that a 1:2, 1:3, or 1:10 risk/reward ratio automatically leads to long-term profitable results. Your risk to reward ratio on its own is meaningless. Risk to reward ratio only makes sense when combined with your winning rate to have a positive expectancy. That determines whether you'll make money in the long run or not. In that sense, you can be profitable with a negative risk/reward just as well as with a positive risk/reward ratio.

BUT. A negative risk/reward ratio means you need a pretty good win rate, which is probably difficult for most traders to maintain, at least in the long term. It should be noted that some of the best traders in the world, who have proven consistent performance over decades, only have a win rate of 40-50%.

Here is a Monte Carlo simulation with a 55% and 60% win rate and a 1:0.62 Risk/Reward ratio (1% risk per trade) over 252 trades (1 trade per trading day per year). As you can see, this could be problematic.

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Quoting vidvad
The ORB concept was first publicized broadly nearly 40 years ago by Toby Crabel in his book Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakouts.
I'm also undecided as to whether filtering entries makes sense, and I don't want to elaborate on that, but since you mentioned Tony Crabel, didn't he also use filters and not just place one (or more) ORB orders every day?

"One of Crabel’s discoveries was that he found the opening range breakout trade to be most effective after a Narrow Range 7 (NR7) day – a day where the range is the narrowest of the last seven days. This often precedes a breakout or trend day."


Other voices I've found claim even more drastically that the ORB strategy no longer works at all (which I am personally not convinced of either), because the markets have changed completely since Tony Crabel was perhaps actively successful with it. Today, the markets are much more efficient.

Quoting vidvad
Bob, who has a lot of good stuff, was simply giving the newbies a "Trigger" to get them into day trades at good times.
I think so too. Generally, the opening of a market/session seems to be a good time to trade, but without the right strategy (including proper risk/money management and psychological and emotional discipline/resilience), this alone doesn't seem to guarantee success.
  • #1,112
  • Edited 8:24am Jul 3, 2025 7:31am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting Noisy
Here are a few excerpts from this great topic that I personally find interesting and crucial. I would like to comment on them. {quote} I see it exactly the same way. What's missing here is that not only the risk/reward ratio is crucial, but also how many orders are placed according to the entry setup. Suppose I only execute one order per day and setup, or I place 2, 3, 4, or more orders. This could lead to completely different results, regardless of the risk and reward per trade, and thus significantly influence the overall profitability. {quote}...
What is the point here that you are making? These are general statements that lead nowhere.

Execute or backtest 500 trades with your personal "MeBob" "system" and allot of things will clear up. I am doing this now for this technique.
Statistics of the trades that you take is what will bring this altogether for you. Hard work, but that is what winners do, work hard and look at statistics.
  • #1,113
  • Jul 3, 2025 7:38am Jul 3, 2025 7:38am
Quoting driven18
{quote} What is the point here that you are making? These are general statements that lead nowhere.
I didn’t try to make a point. Yes i’ll do my own tests.
  • #1,114
  • Jul 3, 2025 8:10am Jul 3, 2025 8:10am
Quoting Noisy
{quote} Did the original rules specify the maximum number of orders that should be executed per day / MeBob reference bar? The linked document doesn't provide any information on this.
All I know of the original rules comes second hand from that Tom Hougaard pdf.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,115
  • Jul 3, 2025 9:17am Jul 3, 2025 9:17am
S&P 500 - Even a smaller range than yesterday.

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Edit: 2nd M5 candle closed above MeBoB.

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BUY: 6270.09
SL: 6267.09
TP: 6273.09
  • #1,116
  • Jul 3, 2025 9:22am Jul 3, 2025 9:22am
Quoting Noisy
Here are a few excerpts from this great topic that I personally find interesting and crucial. I would like to comment on them. {quote} I see it exactly the same way. What's missing here is that not only the risk/reward ratio is crucial, but also how many orders are placed according to the entry setup. Suppose I only execute one order per day and setup, or I place 2, 3, 4, or more orders. This could lead to completely different results, regardless of the risk and reward per trade, and thus significantly influence the overall profitability. {quote}...
I play a lot of golf. Over the years I've become a decent player. I am by no means an expert or pro level, but I do well enough to enjoy it every time I get a chance to go out and play. My bad shots now are like my best shots were as a beginner. Again, I'm no "great athlete." I recently saw a new interview with Paul Azinger, who is a great golfer. And in the section below, he really nails golf in a way that I think relates very well to trading:

Paul Azingher: It's just gotten out of hand I think some of this [golf] instruction.

Interviewer: Say more about that.

Paul Azinger: I mean no one is shooting any lower necessarily. There may be more [people] doing it but the psychology and all that.

Interviewer: What about for the amateur golfer?

Paul Azinger: What do you mean?

Interviewer: I mean there's more information out there you know than ever before, on YouTube and

Paul Azinger: Information is so vital, but it can be a killer in in a sport that you know really you have a second and a half of actual motion maybe two seconds of
motion at the most and the 10 billion things will jump in your head in two seconds of motion. But if you can get that motion blank if that two second is without a word then you're off and running. That's the way it is. It's that was one of those Stephen Yellen and buddy Bianca. They did a study of what is every great athlete thinking in their moment of greatness and the answer is nothing. Nothing. Almost every time.

And so is it possible that words interrupt the fluidity of motion. So, I don't know. You get these over analytical players. It's out of control. I want to hit down on the back of the ball and I almost feel like I stop at the bottom. I don't I follow through but I want the club getting there. It's like you know ... that's it. There's not there's not much left. So they're overcoached or over ... I guess too much information. I mean, you know they're looking at ball speed numbers from 30 to 40-yard pitch shots, which I'm sure is just ... I mean you know they still got that information, but I don't know how much value it gives because you still have your own eyes ... right? You can see it with your own eyes.

So, I don't know. I asked Hal Sutton one time, "When you worked with Byron Nelson, did he ever say anything to you you'd never forget?"

He said "Yeah." He said "There's two kinds of players: Those that need to know a little and those that need to know it all."

And which one you do you think is easier?

_____________________________________________________

I often get asked, when out on the course playing with others, "What are your swing thoughts?

Well, I thankfully don't have any, not anymore. I don't even take practice swings before hitting the ball unless I'm taking a partial shot and trying to get a feel for the distance or perhaps in the case of a long lag put. But I don't think during the swing. My mind is empty, blank, nothing but awareness of the moment.

I wish my trading could be like that. It is finally getting there, thanks in no small part fo my roulette epiphany. But it isn't there yet. I still have "swing thoughts" when I trade. I still fight myself from time to time: "I don't know, the previous day's high is right there. News comes out in 45 minutes. Blah blah blah."

But every day I'm getting better. Better at quashing the voices of doubt in my head. Better at not minding the back and fill as price bobs and weaves either toward my take profit or toward my stop loss.

That really is what this thread is about. It isn't about the best bar to use as your Mebob, at least not directly. It is about getting that 2 seconds of quiet you need to execute your trading plan flawlessly. And then maintaining the internal poise to stick to your plan through the trade's completion.

There is a lot of overthinking in your post. I myself am as guilty of this as you and every one else.

When you find yourself overthinking, you've lost your way. You're off the path and "in the weeds."

Yesterday you said you don't think the 20 trade exercise is sufficient to transform yourself into a consistently profitable trader. It probably isn't if you only do it once, and it defintiely isn't, even if performed hundreds of times if you perform the way most , including myself, tend to perform it: You need a 1005 mechancial rule based method and you cannot deviate from iut at all. There can be not even the smallest hint of discretion. If there is, then that particular set of trades is just a random set of trades and has done nothing to help transform you into a consistently profitable trader.

That too was part of roulette epiphany: I very often thought I was following a system and in fact I was introducing my own inputs, exponentially expanding the variance the system itself would have on it sown, and I was always doing so in response to and as an attempt to control the undesirable outcomes of when the natural variance of the system proved too much for my emotional discipline to with stand.

Anyway, all that too say don't think too much. If you find yourself in the weeds of posting Monte Carlo simulations, you're in the weeds, and those weeds are probably poison ivy.

I appreciate having you here and hope you continue to join us and share your thoughts.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #1,117
  • Jul 3, 2025 9:45am Jul 3, 2025 9:45am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I play a lot of golf. Over the years I've become a decent player. I am by no means an expert or pro level, but I do well enough to enjoy it every time I get a chance to go out and play. My bad shots now are like my best shots were as a beginner. Again, I'm no "great athlete." I recently saw a new interview with Paul Azinger, who is a great golfer. And in the section below, he really nails golf in a way that I think relates very well to trading: Paul Azingher: It's just gotten out of hand I think some of this [golf] instruction. Interviewer:...
"My mind is empty, blank, nothing but awareness of the moment."..and that is the secret that 95% of traders miss.

I take a trade, squeeze out of it all I can and move on to the next trade with the same empty blank mind, ready for any random outcome, but knowing that my statistics, that were in the making of the last 10 years, will not let me down.
  • #1,118
  • Jul 3, 2025 10:12am Jul 3, 2025 10:12am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} My chart seems different to yours - 8:35am Mebob was a profitable short as was the ORB at 8am? {image} {image}
In fact the price reached the take profit level, but the order to close did not work. Probably spread. i described my rules of trading DAX in post #1071.
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  • #1,119
  • Jul 3, 2025 10:49am Jul 3, 2025 10:49am
Quoting driven18
{quote} "My mind is empty, blank, nothing but awareness of the moment."..and that is the secret that 95% of traders miss. I take a trade, squeeze out of it all I can and move on to the next trade with the same empty blank mind, ready for any random outcome, but knowing that my statistics, that were in the making of the last 10 years, will not let me down.
Bet "Triple IPA" helps.
Seriously though - Stats -very important.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #1,120
  • Jul 3, 2025 11:38am Jul 3, 2025 11:38am
Quoting binnie
{quote} I see why its called 'Triple' - 11%!!! 3 of those & I would have to forget about the Bourbon & Coke that usually follows a few beers. Good work on the thread all you guys - my daily read here. Keep it going - well done Vid. Nice memorial to RP.
binnie! Great to see you, my friend!
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
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