The PriceBob Strategy

This thread is dedicated to the memory of our friend and late FF member rockypoint. While our methods differ greatly, we shared a love of trading, forexfactory, and living our best life. Missing you and feeling your absence every day, my friend.

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UPDATE 11-15-2025


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Many remain perplexed as to what this thread is really about. Jump ahead to post #1492 so that you can discover its true essence. If what you read there makes sense to you, then this thread might be worth your effort and time to read through and participate. If what you read there makes no sense or you simply find it wrong-headed or even ridiculous, then you will have saved your time and outs by ignoring this thread entirely.

The PriceBob Strategy | Page 75 | Forex Factory

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This thread is different from other threads in that in order for someone really to remain up to speed on what's going on, he or she has to have watched the videos, at least the first video and then the most recent two or three. That means that this thread requires a larger commitment of time and effort than a traditional FF thread. It will not be for everyone.

If you haven't taken the time to watch the videos and if you do not understand the rules of MeBob that define the set ups, please do not post charts and trading commentary to this thread. If you have an ego that needs to be fed, go eat elsewhere. This the central theme of this thread is the MeBob method found in post #2. If you are posting charts and trade commentary that is not MeBob compliant, take it to a trading discussion thread. This is a systems thread dedicated to a specific system.
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Recently I was reintroduced to a strategy for day trading the S&P 500 that originated over 30 years ago called "the MeBob Strategy."

Soon after I started trading, I joined a trading room on a website called avidtraderDOTcom. I don't know why he closed his service, but at some point in the later 2000's Avidtrader shut down his trading room. There were many good traders there and quite a few hungry newbies like myself (Tom Hougaard, whom some of you know as TraderTom and is the author of the book Best Loser Wins was, at that time, one those hungry newbs!).

One of the more experienced members went by the name MeBob. He came up with a method that was called, fittingly, the "Mebob Method," and it was based on the use of what he called a reference bar. The specific reference bar was the five-minute bar that opened at 10:05 AM Eastern and closed at 10:10 AM Eastern on the S&P 500. The concept of having and using reference bars remained a part of my own search for my own method all these years.

This thread exists because this past weekend I was "cleaning out" my gmail account (which is almost as old as my trading efforts) and I found an old email I sent to myself about the Mebob trading method. I then went looking for information online about MeBob the person to see if he might be active somewhere, and sadly what I found was his obituary. He passed away in 2023 just a few months short of his 88th birthday.

I decided to create a "mebob" template in Ninjatrader, and after some cursory visual back testing, I decided that since I am usually done with my main trading instrument and method before or soon after the NYSE open each day, I'd explore the MeBob method, but I'd do so using price action concepts I've learned since those early days of my trading. These price action concepts I learned largely from studying Al Brooks and Bob Volman, and I take no credit for either MeBob, or the price action concepts I'll be using as I explore this hybrid of the two, which I rather uncreatively call "the PriceBob Method."

@bluesteele found a Tom Hougaard document online in which TraderTom preserved some elements of the original MeBob Method. You can read and download that document at this link (the MeBob discussion is on pages 28 - 41): Avid Trader Tribute.docx

I will post a copy of the original MeBob rules in the next post to this thread.

I will be adopting and adapting the MeBob reference bar to a more price action oriented approach of entering and managing trades: Hence, "The PriceBob Method."

I intend to make an effort, at least for the next few weeks, to record live trading of the ES using this hybrid method. The method itslef is a "work-in-progress." I welcome others to post and share their own attempts to incorprate the MeBob method into their own trading. For the record, I am not an "anti indicator" trader. However, in keeping with the spirit of the original MeBob method and its creator, I ask that you refrain from adding MA's, oscillators, and other derivitive squiggly lines to your charts in this thread. The focus should be on using the MeBob reference bar and price action itself to identify and manage trades. I thank you all in advance for keeping the MeBob spirit alive!

Here is a video I made where I introduce both how to identify the MeBob reference bar and also attempt to show some of the price action concepts I intend to use with the PriceBob method.

Below I have copied and pasted the original MeBob rules as found in the Tom Hougaard document referenced in the above post.

Please note the following: The method I will be trading is NOT the original MeBob method. Therefore, when you read my posts, see my chart screenshots, and watch my trading videos, you will see that I am often taking trades NOT in strict accordance with the following rules.

Also, you will see where someone, perhaps TraderTom, perhaps MeBob himself suggests "doubling up" when you stop out of one trade and reverse to a trade in the opposite direction. In my opinion, this is a recipe for blowing up your account, and I do not advocate such an approach to money management. I post the following only in the interest of maintaining an historic reference to the original MeBob rules as very little can be found about this method on the internet.

Here is a link to the obituary of Robert Falk, the creator of the original MeBob method:

Obituary information for Robert Harold Falk

What follows was copied and pasted from Tom Hougaard's document and I am not responsible for its content or composition:


https://www.tradertom.com/wp-content...ute.docx-1.pdf

Another poster was MEBOB. I have been informed his real name is Rob Falk.

He had a set of mechanical rules, which was often the topic of conversation on the Avid chat.
Here is the introduction to the rules:

1. You trade it on the SP500 Index.
2. You use a 5-min chart.
3. You only use it during Regular trading hours only (09:30am – 16:00pm Eastern Standard time).


A more detailed explanation follows below:
1. The US stock market index opens at 09:30am New York local time.
2. The 5-min reference bar to wait for is the 10:05am–10:10am bar.
3. This is the 8th 5min bar into the regular trading session.
4. Observe the high and the low of the reference bar.
5. Draw a horizontal line through the high of the reference bar.
6. Draw a horizontal line through the low of the reference bar.
7. If the SP500 closes above the high of the reference bar “highest line”, it is a BUY signal.
8. If the SP500 closes below the low of the reference bar “lowest line”, it is a SELL SHORT signal.
9. The stop loss is placed either at the most recent swing or above/below the reference bar. It is a simple method.

Here is what Oleman thought of it: “The seemingly erratic performance of the "MeBob" (trading rule) is simply what one would expect from a trend following system.

Bob, who has a lot of good stuff, was simply giving the newbies a "Trigger" to get them into day trades at good times.”

I have added a rule, which is also discussed in the Avid chats. Where my stop loss is, I will double up in the opposite direction. If I am long at 10, and I have a stop at 6, then I will also at 6 have a short position waiting, which is twice as big as the original long position.

I will now post the outcome of the MEBOB reference bar from the last 9 consecutive trading days. I am not hand-picking good days. I want you to see for yourself the value of the signal. Like all mechanical signals, it probably has a hit rate around 55-60. I think you will agree with me when I say that there are some good signals and there are some hit-and-miss signals.
What else can you expect from a mechanical system like a fixed time bar method?

Here is the video of today's trading. My first trade was placed in a fresh prop evaluation account that requires $3000 in profits to pass and has an end of day trailing drawdown of $2000. Once I hit a full winner on that account, I decided to switch to a SIM account as this particular prop firm has rather strict rules on consistency and requires more trading days in the eval stage than most. The name of the prop firm is not relevant as I am not an affiliate and I have no commerical interests. My goal has always been and will remain to make money from trading, not "vendoring" or affiliating.

I had some difficulty with my mouse in Ninjatrader which has been something of a recurring problem but today was the first time it really affected my ability to manage my trades. I will uninstall and reinstall Ninjatrader this afternoon and I hope that resolves the issue.

Here is the link to the video:

Excellent stuff. Good luck with the thread.

Thanks! I look forward to your contributions here as well!

Brilliant stuff Vidvad. Your hard work is appreciated.

I think the one key, if not the key element that the mebob can contribute to defining an edge is that it provides what Linda Raschke calls a "reference point"

"Watching price action can actually be very confusing if you go about it like a ship without her sails up in an ocean squall. You will get tossed back and forth with no sense of direction and no sense of purpose. There are two main tricks to monitoring price action. The first is to watch the price relative to another "reference point." This is why many traders use a "pivot point" - and it works! It is the easiest way to tell if the market is moving closer to or further away from a particular point. This is also why it is often easier to get a "feel" for the market once you put a position on - your "reference" point tends to be your entry price."

You can read her entire article here: Tape Reading, by Linda Bradford Raschke | Forex Factory

I completely agree that having a reference point is fundamental in navigating market price action. A single point of reference can provide enough context to establish a meaningful perspective, much like key levels do. What I particularly appreciate about your approach is that it encourages traders to analyze these levels from multiple vantage points. When various reference points—whether pivot levels, prior highs/lows, or other structural markers—are considered together, they begin to form a more comprehensive picture of market behavior.

This layered perspective is what enables traders to extract opportunities with greater confidence. After all, no one wants to believe the market is purely random. Perhaps it is, perhaps it isn’t—but having clearly defined reference points allows traders to move with intention rather than uncertainty, much like a vessel navigating with a visible horizon rather than drifting aimlessly in open water.

Excellent post, Machine!

Price action is probably at its most random at the HFT level of granularity, right? I mean, from tick to tick anything truly can happen. The spread is the spread and it can fluctuate from moment to moment as to what is the best bid and what is the best offer at that very moment in time.

But I think as we zoom out and take in that larger perspective of which you speak, the randomness dissipates somewhat. There seems to be, for instance, a point at which a previous day's low becomes an almost irresistible price magnet, and the market can't resist its gravitational pull until enough sellers become buyers to allow price once again to rise. I don't mean to imply that I believe in "sure things" when it comes to trading. Only that there is likely significantly less "randomness" than many would seem to believe.

interesting

In this video, I review today's price action in and around the MeBob range, and explain how I believe a trader using the original MeBob entry rules might have traded using MeBob today.



I believe that a key difficulty to the MeBob method strictly applied is the question of risk/reward. Where should we place our stop? Where should we take our profits? I'd love to hear your ideas about money management and MeBob!

It looks like you marked a wrong candle

BD is right Machine. The MeBob bar is the M5 bar that opens at 10:05 Eastern and closes at 10:10 Eastern. You are marking the bar that opens at 10:10 AM and closes at 10:15. You are one bar late today.

I thought something was up! The broker feed I'm using on TradingView is being super weird, not entirely sure what's going on. I'm switching brokers and it's showing different bars.

Probably something I'm not noticing on my end. Even yesterday when I was watching the bars, it was like 10:10 and the candles were appearing on the 10:20 line, I was so confused. Here's the candle..

Hi MachineL, I never trade us500 before. I always traded gold. And it's been nearly 7/8 years. May I know which platform or broker is good for trade us500 , easy execution and less spread issue.

VidVad would know better, I've been a CFD and Forex trader for most my years. I've been using PLUS500 as the broker for trades and it's been pretty good so far. I know a lot of people recommend tradovate.

The circled bar is the MeBob bar

I use Ninjatrader Brokerage. You can also trade with various prop firms. I'd suggest TopStep as the best combination of low cost and clear rules and reliable payouts. Avoid Apex like your life depends upon avoiding it. TradeDay is also good, but costs a little more. If you choose TradeDay, I'd reccomend you select an account with an End of Day drawdown, not the intraday drawdown.

A lot of FF traders who trade futures also seem to use AMP Futures.

Turnip15 is in the UK, and he might be able to make some recommendations as well if you are not located in the USA.

Hi, i did a visual test from february till now (03.02.-06.03.) with following rules:

1. breake high/low of 15:05 candle -> trade entry
2. SL= high/low of candle 15:05
3. TP= 1:2 RRR
4. Optional: Revers with same rules, when trade hit SL

24 trades / 8 Win / 16 Loss
Result: 0 (not taken into account spread or anything else)
Reverse 16 trades /8 Win / 8 Loss
Result: 4R

Remarks: without optimization, it is purely a game of chance (with the rules i have listet). I think price action methods are more importend for this system. Of course, these are just my personal thoughts .

Keep on the good work Vidvad

Thank you for your effort in doing this work and sharing with us here. This is exactly the type of work that needs to be done. The purpose of the thread is to explore the value of incorporating or even building a trading plan around the concept of a fixed bar strategy, and in particular, the mebob bar.

Let's do a quick debrief of your test so we are all on the same page. It will be important to note what rules you used and how these rules differ from the original MeBob rules and also differ from the money management rules I proposed in my review video of yesterday's price action.

So you used a break of the high to enter long and a break of the low to go short. This is certainly one tactic for entering a position available to us. I haven't ruled it out myself as further testing is needed. Your rule differs from the original MeBob method in that a break is necessary to prompt a signal, but it is not sufficient. In order to trigger a trade entry according to the original rules, price needs to break and close above the high to enter a long, and break and close below the low to enter a short. This is an extremely important distinction. Your sample size of 24 trades would no doubt be reduced if you were to apply this criteria to your sample size of days.

This is the exact same stop loss as the original MeBob method uses. For my own review yesterday, I applied this rule as well as I wass conducting the review using the original MeBob rules for entry and stop loss.

The 1:2 risk reward I presume means your take profit was set to a level twice the risk, and the risk, of course, is the range of the MeBob bar. This really lays bare the importance of money management. In my review, using the original MeBob entry and stop loss rules, I added the following Take Profit rule: On the first close above/below the MeBob bar, target a profit equal to the MeBob bar range. On any subsequent entries triggered by retracements to the MeBob range, target the most recent high - 8 ticks for long trades, and the most recent low +8 ticks for short trades. I suspect that the 1:2 risk to reward is not going to test out to be the proper money management approach for a straight MeBob breakout system.

Also, in your rules where you state "Optional: Reverse with the same rules," it is important for us to acknowledge that it seems as though the comments about reversing and "doubling up" where Tom Hougaard's creation and were not part of the Rob Falks's original MeBob method rules.

It is interesting, however, that in your data set the addition of the reverse when stop loss is hit actually resulted in improving your rule set from essentially breakeven to a +4R before spread, fees, etc.

Using your rules on yesterday's data, there would have been a -1R trade long (-16 points), and a +2R (+32 points) trade short, for a +1R (+16 point) profit on the day.

When I applied my money management rules, where 1R = 16 points as well, the final result was four trades of +16, +11.50, +13, and +16 = +56.50 points, or +3.53R

What this shows is that whatever value the use of the MeBob as a fixed bar reference will require a money management plan appropriate to the extent one can generally expect price to move when it exits and closes outside of the MeBob range.

I really appreciate what you've shared here, FX-F. Unlike other systems threads where there is supposedly a fully formed system for others to "plug and play" in the first post, this is an exploration thread, and you have certainly added an important data sample to the project!

If you haven't already watched it, you can view the review video here which shows a money management plan different from the 1:2 that you used, and also used the more restrictive trade entry criteria of the original MeBob method rules.