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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #5,281
  • Aug 8, 2007 2:04am Aug 8, 2007 2:04am
Quoting raczekfx
Which way is it going to break...
Where is it going to bounce...
next move should be good for some 300ps imho..
.
You know, I'd say up, but then I'd get all worried what that means for my precious cable short and the tears are welling up as it is already

Maybe if USDJPY goes berzerk while cable sits idly or something. For now, I am still staying in the firm belief of this chart. I am already beating myself up for having closed out my 2.03 addon last night due to PANIC and IGNORING my own stringent and strict trade plan. 1.9990 or bust! Well, that, or it hits one of my manually trailed stops. But go there it must I say!
(please don't trade based on what I say)
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,282
  • Aug 8, 2007 3:03am Aug 8, 2007 3:03am
Quoting SeekingLight
You know, I'd say up, but then I'd get all worried what that means for my precious cable short and the tears are welling up as it is already

1.9990 or bust! Well, that, or it hits one of my manually trailed stops. But go there it must I say!
(please don't trade based on what I say)

Aaaaaaaaaaaand this is why you shouldn't

I'm over in the corner crying while Bussa Buss takes care of my shorts ;p

Weak C? Is this really how it's gonna end? Argh!
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  • #5,283
  • Aug 8, 2007 8:19am Aug 8, 2007 8:19am
Okay, I'll say it--I'm ****** off .. :-\ Good, I got my emotion out, now I can be "unemotional" again ;-)

Last night GBPUSD and EURUSD both tested several pips below two PPZs I had identified, triggered sell stops by about 5 pips, and then came back to form lovely pinbars that I did not take because I was asleep--lost over 100 pips (see the post above this one from Seeking). Another case in point--right now AUDUSD just hit .8627, to the pip where I had a buy order placed at a pivot zone, and has retraced back down 20 pips.

So, how do we effectively trade breakouts? There seems to be no good way to reasonably determine if price is just testing a PPZ and will come back (whether it be genuine market testing, or whether it's manipulation, whichever may be the case), or if it's a true breakout. Some breakouts retest the zone they broke through, some do not. Do I wait until a bar close to enter a breakout? If so, I miss tons of pips, and probably find myself entering right before a retracement.

So when Jim says things like "it can't be any easier than this" when it comes to PPZs and all, I agree--identifying them and looking for price action around them, with some practice, has been easy. The problem is--how do I effectively trade these zones with success? Do I simply need to get more in the flow of the market? Obviously being awake when these moves occur would help, but that's not really the issue, I think.
  • #5,284
  • Aug 8, 2007 9:41am Aug 8, 2007 9:41am
Well, sometimes PA is a story of "it's never easy".

It helps of course letting the trend take precedence over anything, but I agree JoshDance, it can be annoying. USDCAD is a good example and one of my arch enemies.

Monthly: PB, untriggered.
Weekly: BUOB, moved out 49 pips, then price fell back inside. Ouch.
Daily: PB, triggered - bearish again, right? But then price comes back up to ALMOST the high of the PB with a counter-PB. Eww. THEN there's a BEOB. Okay, bearish again. Then some stalling, then an IB, that breaks down. Okay, well, at least now there's some direction. Now I'm just waiting for a gigantic bounce from < 1.0470 to make yet another flipflop ;p
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  • #5,285
  • Aug 8, 2007 10:04am Aug 8, 2007 10:04am
Razdazl asked what is causing the USD strength.

Here's how I see it.

See how simple things can be? PBs at the boundaries, then back until a new one comes...some pairs behave better than others. This is basically "the dollar". 52% of this USDX basket is reflected in EURUSD afaik.

As for people looking at GBPUSD, don't forget EURGBP.
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,286
  • Aug 8, 2007 10:23am Aug 8, 2007 10:23am
Quoting raczekfx
Which way is it going to break...
Where is it going to bounce...
next move should be good for some 300ps imho..
.
These were the fastest 350ps delivered... in two weeks.

P.S. I was however stopped out for 80 earlier, right after fed rates announcement.
Stop should've been set lower as it's common for yen to hit new high/law and quickly reverse...
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  • #5,287
  • Aug 8, 2007 10:30am Aug 8, 2007 10:30am
Quoting SeekingLight
You know, I'd say up, but then I'd get all worried what that means for my precious cable short and the tears are welling up as it is already

Maybe if USDJPY goes berzerk while cable sits idly or something. For now, I am still staying in the firm belief of this chart. I am already beating myself up for having closed out my 2.03 addon last night due to PANIC and IGNORING my own stringent and strict trade plan. 1.9990 or bust! Well, that, or it hits one of my manually trailed stops. But go there it must I say!
(please don't trade based on what I say)
Very nice action on cable.. hope you did very well .
Yen is my favorite currency right now and It seems to be in sync with me for the last 2 months..

I need to set alerts delivered to my pda whenever you post in your journal on PF. Lot's of good set ups from you SL, but most of them get posted when I'm hibernating... Do you ever sleep?
  • #5,288
  • Aug 8, 2007 10:42am Aug 8, 2007 10:42am
Found something you guys might be interested in:
[FONT='Calibri','sans-serif']htt[FONT='Calibri','sans-serif']http://www.nybotlive.com/nybot35nb.html[/font][/font]
looks like there is some good information in here, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #5,289
  • Aug 8, 2007 10:57am Aug 8, 2007 10:57am
It's funny you posted your chart with a trendline...I have drawn a couple of mine own this morning before price took off to the upside. Isn't it funny how we use the same chart, but have different opinions on this trade?

And as for my trade, I had 4 mini lots open. Took profit on 2 of them( +30 and +90) The other two are currently at +150 and +130pips! Last week was my best week ever trading forex...nearly 1000pips off of the nzd/jpy. This week is turning into my second best...up 600(not counting the open trades). All I can say is THANK YOU JIM and all who contribute to this forum...THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!

Happy trading!!!

ps...if anyone is wondering where my other pips came from this week, it was from the gap opening on Sunday...that was good for a couple hundred pips per lot!!!

Quoting moneybags
There you go.
Hopefully it works out man.
The only thing that has me a little concerned about this pin is that descending t/l that's been rejecting price. I would've liked to see price break through that before entering. But that's me. I like to play it a little safer than most.

I hope it shoots through for you.

Tom
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  • #5,290
  • Aug 8, 2007 10:58am Aug 8, 2007 10:58am
Damn I did such a crap job of cutting and pasting that link let me try again, there are literally hundreds of fantastic tips in here
[FONT='Calibri','sans-serif']http://www.nybotlive.com/nybot35nb.html[/font]
Enjoy! Raz
Never say never.
  • #5,291
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:02am Aug 8, 2007 11:02am
Well played Raczekfx!!! Nicely done...I was watching this pair as well, but as you can tell...the nzd/jpy had my calling this week! Congrats and may the pips continue!!!

Quoting raczekfx
These were the fastest 350ps delivered... in two weeks.

P.S. I was however stopped out for 80 earlier, right after fed rates announcement.
Stop should've been set lower as it's common for yen to hit new high/law and quickly reverse...
  • #5,292
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:18am Aug 8, 2007 11:18am
Quoting Tw0eleven
It's funny you posted your chart with a trendline...I have drawn a couple of mine own this morning before price took off to the upside. Isn't it funny how we use the same chart, but have different opinions on this trade?

And as for my trade, I had 4 mini lots open. Took profit on 2 of them( +30 and +90) The other two are currently at +150 and +130pips! Last week was my best week ever trading forex...nearly 1000pips off of the nzd/jpy. This week is turning into my second best...up 600(not counting the open trades). All I can say is THANK YOU JIM and all who contribute to this forum...THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!

Happy trading!!!

ps...if anyone is wondering where my other pips came from this week, it was from the gap opening on Sunday...that was good for a couple hundred pips per lot!!!
Congrats 211--and it looks like you picked the right time to take that pin after all ;-) Consolidations eventually come to an end, and you picked a great time to get in.

BTW, how did you make 1000 pips last week on NZDJPY? I guess that's using multiple lots...? Cause it was heavy consolidation for that pair all of last week...?
  • #5,293
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:30am Aug 8, 2007 11:30am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Well played Raczekfx!!! Nicely done...I was watching this pair as well, but as you can tell...the nzd/jpy had my calling this week! Congrats and may the pips continue!!!
Same goes to you 2_11
1600 ps in two weeks....

now imagine same results on 10 FS lots.
  • #5,294
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:33am Aug 8, 2007 11:33am
this is a good pair to practice PA.
Plenty of setups and it's slower then G/J.
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  • #5,295
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:46am Aug 8, 2007 11:46am
You are correct, it was multiple lots. What I typically do is enter a trade with 1 lot and build upon that. And after closing all the lots, I add up the total pips per lot. You're also right about the consolidation last week as well...but just like this week, the previous week opened up with a "gap" that I took with a long position. After a certain point I closed it...then price dropped back to the support level and I re-entered long. From what I can tell, the nzd/jpy is just retesting the previous "resistance" from back in April-May this year. So unless it actually breaks that level(89.00ish) and stays below it...I will be thinking long nzd/jpy. I combined this with the Fib levels and a some bar formations to aid my decisions. Hope that helps!

Quoting JoshDance
Congrats 211--and it looks like you picked the right time to take that pin after all ;-) Consolidations eventually come to an end, and you picked a great time to get in.

BTW, how did you make 1000 pips last week on NZDJPY? I guess that's using multiple lots...? Cause it was heavy consolidation for that pair all of last week...?
  • #5,296
  • Aug 8, 2007 11:50am Aug 8, 2007 11:50am
Hehe...I'm trying not to imagine the "if it was 10FS lots" things. Right now I'm just so excited I got these trades right with what I was seeing. Now if I can consistantly be profitable(not expecting these results all the time of course) then I will eventually work my way up to a standard lot and possible multiple standard lots.

Now it's time to analyze the past two weeks and see why I was right and how I can come up with some rules to my trading plan on what to look for in similar successful trade in the future. Cheers!!!

Quoting raczekfx
Same goes to you 2_11
1600 ps in two weeks....

now imagine same results on 10 FS lots.
  • #5,297
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:02pm Aug 8, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting raczekfx
Very nice action on cable.. hope you did very well.
Yen is my favorite currency right now and It seems to be in sync with me for the last 2 months..

I need to set alerts delivered to my pda whenever you post in your journal on PF. Lot's of good set ups from you SL, but most of them get posted when I'm hibernating... Do you ever sleep?


Don't make me blush

I'm still quite a long way behind you and Mike et al =)

Yea, cable went alright, I just was a bit stubborn reacting intially.
Ended up closing out the lower entry for around +70 during FOMC panic, the original shorts around +180, then flipped long and am holding that for around +80 or +90 right now.

Looking to add on a retrace after BUOB in the morning during the London Open stop run / scareout tomorrow on a bullish setup.

Considering price behavior today I am expecting a move towards > 2.0450 in the near future again. Not sure though.

Know what's funny? That "almost" .618 fib hit at 2.0462 is now EXACTLY on .618 with the new low. Spooky, isn't it? This market, I tells ya...

As for my journal, been neglecting it a little bit lately, since I'm trying to do more trading than posting and my account balance reflects this in the last 3 weeks. I've been doing amazingly okay - not great - even with a LOT and I mean a LOT of botch ups.
Being swifter in cutting suckers and lenient towards working setups and trying not to out-stubborn moves like on cable helps a LOT. Also I try to have "places to go to" - targets that are at least 1:2 or 1:3 away and look PLAUSIBLE.

From what I've learned: In this market you have to be able to go from calling another 5000 pips drop to being bullish again within 30 minutes or you're toast. Might sound a bit huffy and schizo and totally whack, but that's just how it is.
Adapt or die, to put it drastically. Be flexible and allow the market to prove you wrong and make you rethink might be a softer version. Keep an open mind.

Only applies to the lower timeframes of course, monthly e.g. has been green for 2 months now *g*


I feel a bit guilty because a lot of the stuff I post publicly or in the journal might lead people to see different things than I end up trading, but that's what all those disclaimers are for..

When I post charts they're always just fragments of reality and snapshots - things always do their own thing in the end.

Got to stay flexible.

You're doing some amazing things as well RaczekFX, I'm always in awe with you, too =)

As for being in synch with stuff - I know exactly what you mean. Some pairs just speak to you and some pairs it's like constantly having a fight with an angry ex-wife ;p (can you say xxxCAD...lol)

Sleep, hmmm...let me check the dictionary....ohhhhh that ;p

Yea, I do that sometimes, I just try to hide it well hehehe ;p

Keep in mind I'm in Germany, so timezones may play into the timing =)


Man, I'm writing novels again here lol....I should get some speech -> text soft, too, I thinks...not that it'd know most of the funny words I use, but heck...
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #5,298
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:16pm Aug 8, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Know what's funny? That "almost" .618 fib hit at 2.0462 is now EXACTLY on .618 with the new low. Spooky, isn't it? This market, I tells ya...
I'm not sure I fully understand this...and I like to try and understand everything...can you explain Seeking?

P.S. Whereabouts in Germany are you from?
  • #5,299
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:31pm Aug 8, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting SeekingLight


Don't make me blush
.
he, he... you deserve it.

No, I'm a slow shooter and only trade a couple times a week unless there is something obvious... . The real trick is to be only 30% right and still make money....
I'm not quite there yet.

Germany is nice. I have relatives in Lemgo.
  • #5,300
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:35pm Aug 8, 2007 12:35pm
I like this cross as well even though spread might be a killer for some...
If you trade off daily charts, it's sooo.. predictable (excuse the word)
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