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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #4,761
  • Aug 7, 2007 7:25pm Aug 7, 2007 7:25pm
Quoting Richardj
There is a descent line running down the peaks.. current level is around 240.85. You can see it, for example, by drawing a line down the recent peaks in 8 hour charts.

In my opinion, it is very unlikely that price will rise above this descent line.
I know, I was saying it ust close above it, very good resistance there, the 4h trendline with a lot of intersections and also the 23.6 fib, I guess I'll wait for a 4h bar to close above those line and enter on the start of the next 4h hour bar, that is if it will do that...
  • #4,762
  • Aug 7, 2007 7:25pm Aug 7, 2007 7:25pm
Quoting Richardj
There is a descent line running down the peaks.. current level is around 240.85. You can see it, for example, by drawing a line down the recent peaks in 8 hour charts.

In my opinion, it is very unlikely that price will rise above this descent line.
actually i might go back down under the 50 line im keeping my eyes on it
  • #4,763
  • Aug 7, 2007 7:50pm Aug 7, 2007 7:50pm
Quoting ktrade
Kevin, you got lucky sleeping through this thread today. There was more chaos and multidirectional decisions with the "brass" of the thread getting stopped out again, changing directions a few times, talking of the "ride down, then the ride up, and using 30 minute charts.

So, here's some more help for those who want to listen. Attached please find the 4hr chart with upper/lower trendlines and an arrow highlighting the 20:00 hr "news bar". Note how the lower is still intact AND the upper is still intact. You can trade in between but need to wait for a CLOSE outside one of these lines for anything bigger. (note how it's still intact as you're reading this)

If you had dropped down to the 1hr during the 20:00 news bar, the lower trendline from the 4hr at 239.54 ish would still have been intact closing inside this triangle at 240.21 ish keeping you from shorting in a big way.

Using a 30m which isn't used a whole lot in the "biz" (I learned this 2 years ago cutting my teeth on the old Bunnygirl system. Hey, ya gotta start somewhere!), would've given you a terrible fakeout with a close at 238.78 ish only for the next bar north.

Guys, pull back, look at the bigger picture. Trendlines are a powerful tool. Posting back and forth with the "I think it's going down, DOW blah blah, It's going up..." is only going to kill your accounts. This is not arguable as we've witnessed this now for 3 trading days in a row. Edit: Also, if you're going to use a Daily for your analysis, like I mentioned the other day - get rid of that 5 SMA and put a 10, 20 and 50 on there for crying out loud!!!

Good luck/Good trading,

kt
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  • #4,764
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:01pm Aug 7, 2007 8:01pm

check out GJ 4 H divergence

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #4,765
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:04pm Aug 7, 2007 8:04pm
My overall confirmation for a downtrend on the daily chart is 237.60 range break thru...Look out below if this happen...


rgitt05
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily chart GBPJPY.jpg Size: 51 KB
[
  • #4,766
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:17pm Aug 7, 2007 8:17pm
Aus,
Should we not be buying now?
I see 4h bullish and 1h 50 cross on the SI with retrace to the 5 sma.
  • #4,767
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:29pm Aug 7, 2007 8:29pm
Quoting cesande
Aus,
Should we not be buying now?
I see 4h bullish and 1h 50 cross on the SI with retrace to the 5 sma.
you may want to wait for the next candle for confirmation 4H SI, be careful, if the 23.6% fibo at 240.85 keeps getting rejected, we may see down side again.
Bring It...
  • #4,768
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:30pm Aug 7, 2007 8:30pm
Looks like many of the indicators are looking good for a long entry...

However, price is testing that a very strong trendline / 30 and 50 sma and it needs to breakout, retrace and continue past that before I will believe..

However I am very cautious and a lot of trains leave the station without me...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_JPY (8807).jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #4,769
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:30pm Aug 7, 2007 8:30pm
It seems to me, on my charts, that once cable has broken through support around 2.0210, it should make a pretty rapid descent to below 2.000 - and then below 1.9800, and then down to 1.9750 and below.
  • #4,770
  • Aug 7, 2007 8:45pm Aug 7, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting Richardj
It seems to me, on my charts, that once cable has broken through support around 2.0210, it should make a pretty rapid descent to below 2.000 - and then below 1.9800, and then down to 1.9750 and below.

you could be right.

I'll be looking for a London Open Breakout opportunity to the downside too..

Looking good on the 1h and 30m, the 4h getting there... however daily trend is still bullish and i think there will be a big battle around the 2.160 area?

Hope it gives a clear sign..
  • #4,771
  • Aug 7, 2007 9:02pm Aug 7, 2007 9:02pm
Quoting Richardj
It seems to me, on my charts, that once cable has broken through support around 2.0210, it should make a pretty rapid descent to below 2.000 - and then below 1.9800, and then down to 1.9750 and below.
Good observations. However, my humble opinion is that if/when it drops, it won't be rapid or exteme. I am expecting a minor correction if it breaks support you mentioned.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart7.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #4,772
  • Aug 7, 2007 11:19pm Aug 7, 2007 11:19pm
Quoting Richardj
It seems to me, on my charts, that once cable has broken through support around 2.0210, it should make a pretty rapid descent to below 2.000 - and then below 1.9800, and then down to 1.9750 and below.
The 2.0210 should be a wash here, and the 2.014 is becoming a possiblility while the GU heads down for the 89 EMA on the Daily, which is also the 61.8% fibo from the Low of 1.9621 to the High at 2.0650.

2.014/00 would be as far as I could see the G/U for now, but if we see the 1.98/1.97 areas, then I would consider that a trend reversal in the works perhaps.

First lets see if it can at least test the 50% fibo at 2.0135!
  • #4,773
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:16am Aug 8, 2007 12:16am
Long @240.30
TP:242.30
s:L:239.32

This is not a trade call Trade @ your own risk
  • #4,774
  • Aug 8, 2007 12:25am Aug 8, 2007 12:25am
A breakout soon, but which way? Up?

http://img395.imageshack.us/img395/1425/gjnd8.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,775
  • Aug 8, 2007 1:06am Aug 8, 2007 1:06am
Quoting auslanco
Long @240.30
TP:242.30
s:L:239.32

This is not a trade call Trade @ your own risk
Hi everyone.

Interesting - I've just entered a short based on a bounce of the upper trend line and I open this thread and see that you have called a short!

(entered at 240.42)

Mike
  • #4,776
  • Aug 8, 2007 1:10am Aug 8, 2007 1:10am
Quoting MikeW
Hi everyone.

Interesting - I've just entered a short based on a bounce of the upper trend line and I open this thread and see that you have called a short!

(entered at 240.42)

Mike
he called long at 240.30
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,777
  • Aug 8, 2007 1:12am Aug 8, 2007 1:12am
Quoting maestr2
he called long at 240.30
Yep, and I just made about 40 pips
  • #4,778
  • Aug 8, 2007 1:24am Aug 8, 2007 1:24am
Quoting karmostaji
A breakout soon, but which way? Up?
Looks like down from my end - the 1H SI has crossed the 50 (downwards) and looks like its about to make a bearish cross. The 4H is already bearish and so are the dailies.

Lets see how this 1H closes - but its increasingly looking like it will be down.

Have a short (23947) open since yesterday which I'm hoping will kick in today
  • #4,779
  • Aug 8, 2007 1:32am Aug 8, 2007 1:32am
Quoting Timingy
Looks like down from my end - the 1H SI has crossed the 50 (downwards) and looks like its about to make a bearish cross. The 4H is already bearish and so are the dailies.

Lets see how this 1H closes - but its increasingly looking like it will be down.

Have a short (23947) open since yesterday which I'm hoping will kick in today

If you are short be carefull.. This is going to shoot up any moment,

By the way.. 1hr SI has not crossed down
  • #4,780
  • Aug 8, 2007 1:35am Aug 8, 2007 1:35am
Quoting Timingy
Looks like down from my end - the 1H SI has crossed the 50 (downwards) and looks like its about to make a bearish cross. The 4H is already bearish and so are the dailies.

Lets see how this 1H closes - but its increasingly looking like it will be down.

Have a short (23947) open since yesterday which I'm hoping will kick in today
If it does kick in keep an eye on support at 239.11.

Mike
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