hmmmm. even if it bounced off the 150 ??
- #5,262
- Aug 7, 2007 12:24pm Aug 7, 2007 12:24pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Hello guys,
I'm your new friend in the PF but couldn't find a USD/CHF thread, so i'll post it here.
This is the 1H USD/CHF - is there gonna be a pin ?? let's wait and see, if it is, it's gonna be a perfect one!
Do you mean the 1h bar or? I'm not sure.
If you mean the closed 1h the one I have has almost identical high and low distance from open/close, making it a neutral bar / doji-ish something, not a PB.
Also the move lacks any sort of volume, it is small even for a 1h bar.
For clear reversals you want to see a LONG nose for the PB and a small body and an even open/close or only slightly skewed.
I'd also recommend starting on at least the daily timeframe, anything below that has soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much noise, it's hard to filter.
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #5,263
- Aug 7, 2007 12:28pm Aug 7, 2007 12:28pm
You can just post it to the EUR/USD discussion thread, that's not a prob
Do you mean the 1h bar or? I'm not sure.
If you mean the closed 1h the one I have has almost identical high and low distance from open/close, making it a neutral bar / doji-ish something, not a PB.
Also the move lacks any sort of volume, it is small even for a 1h bar.
For clear reversals you want to see a LONG nose for the PB and a small body and an even open/close or only slightly skewed.
I'd also recommend starting on at least the daily timeframe, anything below that has soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo much noise, it's hard to filter.
Great/.... thanks a lot Seekinglight, and everyone who answered.... sure understand better now
First posted the entry reason here
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=5218
Took that. Was expecting a B end for a C down and the PBs confirmed roughly in that area. Actually left a bit overshoot room for 10 pips above the .618 since cable likes to give a last good thrashing before giving up sometimes by 5-15 pips.
Worked out bona fide.
Top marks 10 outa 10 for that one !!!!
I had the TL + Fib but have not traded on BEOVB up to now always find em risky.....!!!
Just another quick question if you have say a pin on the daily and your trading the break of that pin how many days would you wait for that pin to stay valid.....ie. if you had a pin on Monday and the break of that pin was not till Friday would you still take it ????
- #5,266
- Aug 7, 2007 2:44pm Aug 7, 2007 2:44pm
- | Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
- #5,267
- Aug 7, 2007 4:13pm Aug 7, 2007 4:13pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Hi SeekingLight,
Which MA's do you use for support and resistance?
Stay healthy,
Kevin
even though they've been mentioned here before and I'm not sure how "secret" they are, I don't feel comfortable disclosing them as I got them from the PF and I believe they're so valuable they should stay a part of that.
Most or all are "known", but the real trick is knowing what to do with them.
Just like with anything you put on a chart.
If you're in the PF just shoot me a PM over there or simply check out my journal, I mention them permanently in there and explain how I view them =)
Really sorry I can't help you further there Kev :/
I'm always of two minds whether I should just delete them off the chart before posting em in the first place as it is. It's just me in this case, bit overprotective.
A lot of the time there's no real difference to the charts with or without them when posting target zones / fib+s/r confluence and my blue boxes, so there's no need to feel left out
It's a double-edged sword either way(more complication due to them).
Take care,
SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #5,268
- Aug 7, 2007 4:23pm Aug 7, 2007 4:23pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Very Nice Seeking,
Top marks 10 outa 10 for that one !!!!
I had the TL + Fib but have not traded on BEOVB up to now always find em risky.....!!!
Just another quick question if you have say a pin on the daily and your trading the break of that pin how many days would you wait for that pin to stay valid.....ie. if you had a pin on Monday and the break of that pin was not till Friday would you still take it ????
I guess it was a good mixture of luck, timing and an okay setup coming together with a plan.
As for the BEOB/entry:
Well as always it depends on WHERE the setup is. This one came near the crucial .618 fib and after a weekly BEOB which was at the top of 1000 pip run. Had an okay chance to at least consolidate around a little bit in my book and I had a plan to trade it like this so I did.
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
--
As for the Pin timing/"delay": I personally allow a PB + IB then double-trigger to be okay. Mike is stricter in this regard I believe. I'm also fine with a 2 bar PB + 2 bar smaller PB at retrace + double-trigger takeoff. But those are usually a bit more iffy.
One has to once again be careful with the more advanced stuff and bar merging and timeframe mixing and whatnot. End of the day you start seeing things and Caspar the friendly ghost is your best buddy or something.
Anyway, if a PB doesn't trigger ASAP then there's obviously something wrong. We want STRONG rejections, not "meh, mayyyyyyyybe I'll eventually come around some day" I'd say.
I wouldn't think in days but in bars as always. Staying on the same timeframe. Then it's like I wrote above.
Hope this helps.
As always when I write anything - keep in mind this is all PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE and preference. I am by no means a perfect nor flawless trader even if clever posting of those trades that DO work out can make it seem like that sometimes
I am still very much a beginner.
Just have to mention that from time to time
Take care,
SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #5,269
- Aug 7, 2007 4:37pm Aug 7, 2007 4:37pm
- Joined Aug 2005 | Status: Novice | 1,017 Posts
Keeping it Simple
- #5,270
- Aug 7, 2007 4:38pm Aug 7, 2007 4:38pm
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
Now I am seeing that you already had a short going on for GBP/USD !!! So now after my PMs to you yesterday about the DBHLC... I did take the trade and got myself 60 pips this morning... when my wife called me at work to tell me the I had that many pips, I told her to close out the trade... this means I am up $ 6 today !!! Hey that is GREAT for me !!! That is 1/4 of 1% of my account !!!
I see then we have retrace, and I was still scared about this interest rate anouncment... so now I will be thinking about getting back in short again... but I am losing some of the reasons... so I would like to know what are your reasons for thinking GBP/USD will get into the 1.900s ???
Heya Tiki,
congratulations on your trade =)
With time you'll be able to spot and take the trades with confidence independently, I'm sure
As for your thoughts - first off I'd say: why did you exit?
Mike - for a very good reason - puts a lot of emphasis on this. Exits make or break your trading and bottom line.
It's fine to exit, but you should ALWAYS have a tested and proven reason for WHY you exited when and where you did and not just "because it moved a little bit into profit and I didn't want to lose it" (a reason I myself put forward still this day).
There is a HUGE amount of discretion needed to know when it's "right" to close out a trade ahead of time and when not to.
I think the most basic way of avoiding this is what I wrote a few pages ago.
Stay on the same timeframe, stay in your direction unless someting says there's a change of it. I mean, we have a Weekly BEOB, IB. Daily BEOB, BEB. We moved 14 pips below the IB already.
Is any of that bullish?
Then why already close out?
What if this very trade was the beginning of a huge drop?
What if weekly now becomes a BEOB as well?
Who can know ahead of time?
So: why already close out?
I'm not saying it's wrong to close out with a profit. I'm just saying you should know how when where and why you are and that what you're doing is ensuring profitability in the long run.(this is basically 1:1 Mike's words. I'm just quoting him / repeating what he keeps trying to hammer home )
Not just addressing Tiki with this of course
I'm not picking on your Tiki, no worries
Now, another very important thing.
When I read
now I will be thinking about getting back in short again... but I am losing some of the reasons
But that's that. I can't put on a new short unless there's a setup.
Look to my signature at the moment: "no setup = no trade".
That simple line would have saved me a LOT of money had I followed it to the letter the last 15 months.
Don't be anxious to trade. Don't be anxious to enter. Don't be anxious to exit.
Bottom line: Don't be anxious.
Emotions and trading don't mix well.
The more "bored" you are, the better that is as a sign.
Oh, another perfect looking pin at triple confluence. Yawn. 1% entry, managed til reversal, profit, next. Yawn.
That sort of boredom is good.
You don't WANT excitement.
Again - just my perspective on things, going from what I've learned so far.
99% of all this is credit to people like Jim, Habeeb, Mike, FXV and so forth and so on. Mike's posts especially should be heeded with religious reverence and read with extreme diligence. He knows what he's doing and he's doing it well.
I think he's got one of the most simple, most efficient approaches to this market and he's lightyears ahead of me =)
No fantasy world waves or ABCs there, just profit after profit.
Sorry Mike, the next 500 PMs you can blame on me now
Hope I didn't stray too far off topic, but I felt some of this stuff might be important.
Take care,
SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #5,272
- Aug 7, 2007 4:46pm Aug 7, 2007 4:46pm
- Joined Aug 2005 | Status: Novice | 1,017 Posts
I am still very much a beginner.
Keeping it Simple
- #5,273
- Aug 7, 2007 6:45pm Aug 7, 2007 6:45pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,733 Posts
- #5,274
- Aug 7, 2007 6:47pm Aug 7, 2007 6:47pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,733 Posts
- #5,275
- Aug 7, 2007 6:54pm Aug 7, 2007 6:54pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Which way is it going to break...
Where is it going to bounce...
next move should be good for some 300ps imho..
.
Where is it going to bounce...
next move should be good for some 300ps imho..
.
- #5,279
- Aug 7, 2007 9:15pm Aug 7, 2007 9:15pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Feed The Piggy With Pips! | 1,733 Posts
- #5,280
- Aug 7, 2007 9:30pm Aug 7, 2007 9:30pm
To you and JoshDance,
Thanks for the input...that's what makes forex unique. Price broke above my PB so I'm in. Josh, price may be screaming at you to stay out...for me, it says get in! Happy trading all!
Hopefully it works out man.
The only thing that has me a little concerned about this pin is that descending t/l that's been rejecting price. I would've liked to see price break through that before entering. But that's me. I like to play it a little safer than most.
I hope it shoots through for you.
Tom
