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Simple trading but profitable

  • #201
  • Dec 19, 2024 5:25am Dec 19, 2024 5:25am
Highest daily range between all pairs
is this a new rocord daily move for gbpusd over 440 pips
Risking 11 pips even if price criss-crossed the trigger line ,your buy stop or sell stop will be filled before the huge move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 13.png Size: 61 KB
""TP is whatever you can get before it goes against you.""
  • #202
  • Jun 2, 2025 2:14pm Jun 2, 2025 2:14pm
Little more as seven years and be sure you have create the deepest informations on whole forexfactory, no other done yet ... I am not have fully follow your way last years, but also never missed to reread from time to time. I was not aware that the simple message you gave, will reflect all aspects. I was searching for more, more treasure, but every new thread i watsched was be more stone to carry. I am back again and trade last weeks the way you have showing ... After all the time, thanks you ever made this ... you are so roght about what trading is ... i am really impressed ....
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #203
  • Jun 6, 2025 7:17am Jun 6, 2025 7:17am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _EURUSD_2025-06-06_14-12-51.png Size: 12 KB


.. my picked balance line got a good two to one risk result ... because of friday i do not trade again today ... have a nice weekend ...
Entry was because of that positive candle (close above 50% of candle length).
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #204
  • Edited 6:15am Jun 10, 2025 4:45am | Edited 6:15am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _EURUSD_2025-06-10_11-42-01.png Size: 12 KB


... we will see how this work out.
Balance line = yellow line (picked because of really visible in near history)
Entry candle = see positive candle (closed above 50% of candle length)
Entry above candle high
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #205
  • Jun 10, 2025 7:50am Jun 10, 2025 7:50am
Hi MichaelSch,
I have a question if you don’t mind:

I understand that your entry criteria is significant level + strong candle.

What is your trade plan if price goes the other way?

Do you switch direction and aim to higher TP to cover costs and keep going till reaching tp?

Or do you have a different approach?

Thank you
Ask more stupid questions
  • #206
  • Edited 8:26am Jun 10, 2025 8:11am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting Stingy
Hi MichaelSch, I have a question if you don’t mind: I understand that your entry criteria is significant level + strong candle. What is your trade plan if price goes the other way? Do you switch direction and aim to higher TP to cover costs and keep going till reaching tp? Or do you have a different approach? Thank you
I increase profit level every time that i have in the end one more profit as the initial trade. Say i risk 50 Euro, i trade the balance line so often i have in the end my 50 Euro plus AFTER all the losing trades. Be backtesting it and you will see it works.

As thread starter point out, the balance line is for the whole trade, if price close behind the line again with a strong candle the other side, i go this way as long as i have my first risked money WITH all followed losses. Reread his posts over and over again, not so easy to catch the first time you read it.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #207
  • Jun 11, 2025 5:17am Jun 11, 2025 5:17am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} I increase profit level every time that i have in the end one more profit as the initial trade. Say i risk 50 Euro, i trade the balance line so often i have in the end my 50 Euro plus AFTER all the losing trades. Be backtesting it and you will see it works. As thread starter point out, the balance line is for the whole trade, if price close behind the line again with a strong candle the other side, i go this way as long as i have my first risked money WITH all followed losses. Reread his posts over and over again, not so easy to catch the...
Moin Michael,

It would be greatly appreciated if you could add some photos from earlier trades. Being able to see where you entered and exited the market could help clear up some confusion.
  • #208
  • Jun 11, 2025 5:35am Jun 11, 2025 5:35am
Quoting simon.says
{quote} Moin Michael, It would be greatly appreciated if you could add some photos from earlier trades. Being able to see where you entered and exited the market could help clear up some confusion.
Backtesting this is really easy, IF you do not trick yourself out. I have trade in past another way, but came back as it is the best way to trade that i have learned. I do ongoing pictures of trades share here.

My last trade is running, not yet close in profit. Price came really close, but not reching it yet. Further waiting as trading is almost waiting.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #209
  • Jun 11, 2025 5:44am Jun 11, 2025 5:44am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _EURUSD_2025-06-11_12-42-03.png Size: 14 KB


.. see price not reached my TP.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #210
  • Jun 11, 2025 5:53am Jun 11, 2025 5:53am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Backtesting this is really easy, IF you do not trick yourself out. I have trade in past another way, but came back as it is the best way to trade that i have learned. I do ongoing pictures of trades share here. My last trade is running, not yet close in profit. Price came really close, but not reching it yet. Further waiting as trading is almost waiting.
So if I understood correctly, you trade similar to SuperPip (page 10), with a daily target. In your case that would be €50. Is that right?
  • #211
  • Jun 11, 2025 6:07am Jun 11, 2025 6:07am
Quoting simon.says
{quote} So if I understood correctly, you trade similar to SuperPip (page 10), with a daily target. In your case that would be €50. Is that right?
I do follow the four points in first post.
I risk one to get two in initial trade and increase profit taking that i have in the end minimum my initial risk PLUS all losses.
If you take a trade, the balance line is the whole time and be untouched as long as it need to get the result.
I do trade M30 as suggest from thread starter, as it make sense throughout that candles build not much the trading day and cover some time for the trader who reach table early and a bit later.

I suggest to read post one carefull!
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #212
  • Jun 11, 2025 6:28am Jun 11, 2025 6:28am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} I do follow the four points in first post. I risk one to get two in initial trade and increase profit taking that i have in the end minimum my initial risk PLUS all losses. If you take a trade, the balance line is the whole time and be untouched as long as it need to get the result. I do trade M30 as suggest from thread starter, as it make sense throughout that candles build not much the trading day and cover some time for the trader who reach table early and a bit later. I suggest to read post one carefull!
Hab ich schon gemacht. Was ich fragwürdig finde, ist Punkt vier.
Erstens werden viele kleine Verluste (soweit ich das sehe) früher oder später zu einem großen Drawdown führen.
Zweitens, wie kann der Gewinn „so groß“ sein, wenn doch bereits ein fester Take-Profit festgelegt ist?
Ich habe den Eindruck, dass man viel riskiert, um nur wenig zu gewinnen.
  • #213
  • Jun 11, 2025 8:06am Jun 11, 2025 8:06am
Quoting simon.says
{quote} Hab ich schon gemacht. Was ich fragwürdig finde, ist Punkt vier. Erstens werden viele kleine Verluste (soweit ich das sehe) früher oder später zu einem großen Drawdown führen. Zweitens, wie kann der Gewinn „so groß“ sein, wenn doch bereits ein fester Take-Profit festgelegt ist? Ich habe den Eindruck, dass man viel riskiert, um nur wenig zu gewinnen.
Da ich jetzt erst einmal unterwegs bin, antworte ich später. Mein Trade hat TP erreicht und ist nahe am nächsten handelbaren Level. Bilder folgen. Bitte dann auf Englisch.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #214
  • Jun 11, 2025 9:28am Jun 11, 2025 9:28am
I was curious so done some backtesting.
For every switch added the costs to the following tp.

A few times I was able to reach tp after 0-4switches.

But then I had a trade where I needed to do more switching and then it started being a problem.

The tp became very far and much harder to reach.
And the farthest it gets there is a higher chance to hit sl which forces tp even farther etc.

Maybe I was doing it wrong.

For now it seems it can work for a while but eventually you’ll get unlucky and it will collapse like in martingale..

But I’m keeping an open mind and following with interest…
Ask more stupid questions
  • #215
  • Jun 11, 2025 9:42am Jun 11, 2025 9:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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... update TP reached.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #216
  • Jun 11, 2025 9:46am Jun 11, 2025 9:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _EURUSD_2025-06-11_16-43-39.png Size: 12 KB


.. new level to focus, because it is yet the nearest. If price can today reach it, i will trade it.

I do not enter every minute. I trade after the M30 is cloosed and must be positive for the direction i pick. Candle close must be more as 50% of the whole candle.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #217
  • Edited 10:07am Jun 11, 2025 9:53am | Edited 10:07am
Quoting Stingy
I was curious so done some backtesting. For every switch added the costs to the following tp. A few times I was able to reach tp after 0-4switches. But then I had a trade where I needed to do more switching and then it started being a problem. The tp became very far and much harder to reach. And the farthest it gets there is a higher chance to hit sl which forces tp even farther etc. Maybe I was doing it wrong. For now it seems it can work for a while but eventually you’ll get unlucky and it will collapse like in martingale.. But I’m keeping an...
A level holds not forever, this was the core thing that thread starter said back. You can have some really small losses, before price run away, or you have some more. You can not say this for sure. I compund interest. Say, i have earn one profit, i invest this back again in the next trade, so if it loosing, it will be a zero at the end. Also it buys me if going well some more risk free trades.
It comes really in the end to money management.

Backtest it and border your rules in connection with money management.
If price trigger a balance line to often it is no panic and take it as a lost fight (after x direction changes). This will not over and over the fact if you trade above M30 (look in first post).
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #218
  • Jun 11, 2025 10:27am Jun 11, 2025 10:27am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} A level holds not forever, this was the core thing that thread starter said back. You can have some really small losses, before price run away, or you have some more. You can not say this for sure. I compund interest. Say, i have earn one profit, i invest this back again in the next trade, so if it loosing, it will be a zero at the end. Also it buys me if going well some more risk free trades. It comes really in the end to money management. Backtest it and border your rules in connection with money management. If price trigger a balance...
Let us say that price did the following instead (as shown in the image). That is a total of 15 trades. Now, as you just said, accepting losses is part of the game. However, I am curious where you would have accepted the loss. What is your drawdown in these scenarios?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: price.png Size: 123 KB
  • #219
  • Edited 12:02pm Jun 11, 2025 11:29am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting simon.says
{quote} Let us say that price did the following instead (as shown in the image). That is a total of 15 trades. Now, as you just said, accepting losses is part of the game. However, I am curious where you would have accepted the loss. What is your drawdown in these scenarios? {image}
It depends on your money management. In this scenario this balance line is totally untradable. I would earlier cut this line and take the loss and take the next near line. Do backtesting your symbol of choice and what are the behaviour in the past.

Your example total let out how the candles are, if this will be real, means every time we got a strong candle (close the whoke candle 50% and close above or under the balance line) and that in M30. Means we are in a massive range few days without any direction.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example01.png Size: 2 KB


.. this is not real and on the way you can reduce risk if a strong candle be build for same direction. As said earlier, be backtest it and build money management around it and have a worst case scenario you take the loss. If such behaviour you have around the next balance lines aswell i would change instrument.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #220
  • Jun 11, 2025 12:07pm Jun 11, 2025 12:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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... meanwhile working on the new balance line ... waiting for entry.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
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