EURUSD only

opened a short at 1.14004

Meanwhile, on H1..

I am marking 1.1418 as nearest resistance... Go bears go!

I will come on monday to see my position. for now I am off the chart and have a joyful weekend folks and happy Eid to our muslim brothers and sisters

for this week is over only lookin for bears odds on monday see

Thanks for your contributions brother... Happy Eid and happy holidays

but this for short term trend until price 1.12919 as last traped volume of MWR

On a side note: I am tracking D1 candles related to Monthly..

Here we can see that IF any D1 candle closes below 1.1395 today, it can boost bears drastically!

We are still in the shadows of APRIL candle... Careful dear bulls!

my entry would be only after the 3rd confirmation

Long at 1.1397. Stops below 1.1280. Targeting 1.1490.

A little less than 1.1 ratio but I plan to trail the stop. June is a strange month in trading?

Happy trades to you,
NB

closing the position for a nice +33 pips

Have a nice weekend folks!

Peace and love!

Meanwhile, on H1...

If price gets to nearest resistance: 1.14135, a new shorting opportunity will occur... Let's see...

They don't even have the strength to approach there. Triangle on M15 TF

Meanwhile, on H1...

1.1392 was my latest breakout and nearest resistance level on this TF...

Previous candle closed above it and therefore no more selling while candles open above it...

I am calling it a day and week here..

Enjoy your weekends folks... Peace out....

I am careful with selling too. My intermediate term analysis tells me that the bulls are my friend... for the time being.

Anyhow, since we have holiday weekend in many places of the world (Eid Al Adha & Pentecost) that's a good time to lean back and have a longer-term view at the current situation. The USD is weak and will stay so hence, the EUR bull is well alive. Since I believe that the USD is driving the trend more than the EUR strength I took a closer look at the DXY.
The weekly chart confirms my past suggestion from two weeks ago that the DXY will just re-touch the major line (prior July-Sept 2024 support and now resistance) - that has been broken recently - and turn south again. (actually, that was a schoolbook confirmation)





That means the movements from mid-April to mid-May were a clear consolidation action which indicates also that the trend will continue. Even if the week did not close with a clear down, we have a lower low and a lower high - so nothing has changed. Trending indicators do not suggest any upturn - actually the opposite.

The monthly chart does not show any turn around either and indicates that for the next two month the USD might weaken further. It is interesting to note that a long term trendline is waiting to be touched @ 95.60. This is clearly possible. Historically there are seldom trend changes in the mid-summer month - rather later end-August or September.
As a note too, usually - in case of a swing turn - there are no more than 3 monthly bars on the outer Bollinger Band. That means in case we will get a swing low... then it has to happen the next two weeks. If exhaustion in the lower timeframes (weekly/daily) do not show up soon, then the trend will continue. If history is a guide, then we can expect a DXY at the end of the month of 98+- with a potential overshoot lower somewhere into the 97 area.



This technical outlook is for my opinion confirmed by the current situation in finance and politics. The EUR is clearly supported (and USD is weak) by the fact that the ECB is cutting rates!!, the Fed stays unchanged up... and the EUR has a 40pips up day - that's a clear sign of underlying strength.

As for the DXY weakness - the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) will come in whatever variation. Elon & co might make a little scratch in it - but not more. Experience tells us that what Donald wants - he will get it. That means once the new Trillions are stamped & signed (irrespective of a few 10 or 100 Billion more or less) they will weight on the dollar.
And this can be seen in the monthly chart. Sideways (like 2018/19) or decent swings (like mid 2022-24) are when there is "business as usual" on the political schedule. Trends in the monthly chart appear when there are major changes/events in the political/financial/economic environment like 2008 (GFC), 2014 (Saudi shale oil war) and 2020 (Covid + Ukraine war).

The current US admin's actions showing potential being a major game changer - hence I am inclined to believe that we are right now in a new major trend and not in a cyclical swing.

P.S. The EUR might perform even stronger if the EU is gearing up their military industry and... additionally I notice a weak response in the Asian currencies. That could mean that, if the Dollar weakens more the major appreciation will be in the European currencies - and here in particular the EUR - and not much in the Asian counterparts.

For the next days I am expecting a bounce. Looking at the hourly chart I notice in the hourly a wave pattern - initial move, then cyclical inducements but the price movement is weakening and then brief drop. Clearly to see in the cycle 2/3 weeks ago (that is what forms the ellipse Ata is using occasionally too).


So, the same ellipse placed on the current cycle move shows us that we might be in the exhaustion zone and I expect that the little bear that showed up on Friday will work more the next 36 to 48 hours.


But don't be fooled. This might be the play of the whales & sharks! It is the tactical withdrawal of liquidity in order to let the price slipping lower to produce a good entry for the next move. The whales have to do that because their volume is so big that placing them right now would make the price jumping into the stratosphere. The ellipse is pointing to a bounce point/area around 1.1330+-.
The daily chart confirms my suggested area with the Bollinger Band center line and the 52MA - a point where retracements often bounce back.


So, what could make it bounce... and why it should drop initially?
Well, I have the gut feeling that it will be the CPI. The past month CPI readings (since Donald takes actions) have been all below forecast. And the same I am expecting this time too. The analysts pointing to an increase because of tariffs... but I guess they forget something. The market is weakening because if a number of factors. And one of the factors never talked about (in the media) why inflation was somewhat sticky was -> immigration. In 2023/24 the average wild inflow (not even the official immigration) was 200000+ per month. That is almost 0.1% of the population. They all need a roof and to eat - so for me 0.1% points of the inflation in the past was because of that.
But I have the suspicion that the analysts still using their old models not considering that the issue of inflow of people has stopped and actually reversed (deportations).
Saying this, I suspect we will get a CPI of 0.2 vs. 0.3 and that will be the kicker for the next leg up. The whales and sharks in the meantime sniffing it and might manufacture an inducement, tricking the ordinary folks into believing a bear is showing up. Hence, my suspicion is, and I am preparing myself for that, a bounce is in the cards around 1.1345-30+-.

Hi Zippo,
Why not just look to Trade with Market Structure? I think it makes life a lot easier.
As Retail Traders we have no idea what Price is going to do, in the next Minute let alone Week, with any sense of certainty.
The best I can do is Buy if Price is showing a Tendency to go Up and Sell if it is showing a Tendency to go Down.
As Retail Traders this is the best we can Expecrt to do with any chance of Consistency.
Trying to Predict Price beyond what Current Market Structure is showing us is a fools game for the Retail Trader.

You are fully right for the quick moves. Within the cycles it's all about market structure.
For the ones that trade longer term swings on low leverage seeing the larger picture is beneficial. For me, I tend to look out for reconfirmation of the trends though that what happens in the real world. That's my style.

However, that shall not invalidate your point. I am sure that a trader who is focusing and perfecting your approach can be pretty successful.
Nevertheless, I like your examples and agree that for the average trader that is a safe way to go.

Hi Zippo,
So you are a Long Term Swing Trader?
Personally I find Long Term Swing Trading has too many moving parts to to get my head around.

EURUSD looks promising for a sell as noticed in the chart first a bearish rising wedge formed which broke lower and seen for the second confirmation a bearish pennant is forming in the 30M and close to its breakout...... Careful here BULLS watch carefully.

Quick outlook. So we closed lower on Daily. Great. However, We did not close lower on Weekly I mean did not close below last week's low. Which tells me seller's are weak. We had a pretty good NFP and ECB cut rates and still EU did not crash. It tells you something. This is what I am thinking again could be completely wrong of course. If you look at Weekly we have broken out of consolidation from July 2023 so theme is bullish.
Option1: We may might a slow grinding dip to 1.127- 1.120 area which is the 50%fib of the rise from May12th do like a double bottom of sorts and then take out the high to make new high on Daily 1.16-1.17 area. After that we just consolidate till like July. We may stretch to 1.202 area to capture the imbalance. may even sweep the Jan 21 high but this is very stretched. Not sure if it will happen.
Option2: If we break and close below 1.120 we may just keep going to either fill the gap 1.116 and stretch out to 1.109 area and then make the massive move up.

All of this can happen slowly or very quickly or may not happen at all.