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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #1,181
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:22am Dec 4, 2006 10:22am
thks. sorry for taking your time.

Quoting BeachBum
more good questions: If you want a reliable S/L do this; for each pair, go back to 1/2/06 and exam EVERY possible trade, winners & loosers. What was the retrace value before the trade became a winner? Create a spreadsheet and analyze the data. What s/l value would you have needed to make a majority of the trades profitable? How close is that value to the ATR(260)? Do the same thing for t/p if you really want to get serious. Use history to set parameters for "your" version of the "fozzy" method. We'll call it the..........coolfozzy..........nice ring to it!

I love using the fibs on the Daily Vegas chart. Again, look at history, it repeats itself regularly.

FXDD allows everything MT4 allows. It's the same platform, just a different feed from that broker. (read the tutorial in the Metatrader Forum if you need help with this)
  • #1,182
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:22am Dec 4, 2006 10:22am
Ahhhh sensei.... against the daily trend.....
  • #1,183
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:27am Dec 4, 2006 10:27am
yup mrkam..i ignored that too.. there is one forming on the same pair in the same direction (short) on the gmt charts today, which probably wld not be a good trade ..


Quoting mrkam
Ahhhh sensei.... against the daily trend.....
  • #1,184
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:35am Dec 4, 2006 10:35am
no need to be sorry.......................you have great questions and it's all part of the learning process!



Quoting coolshades
thks. sorry for taking your time.
  • #1,185
  • Dec 4, 2006 1:27pm Dec 4, 2006 1:27pm
If you have been watching carefully, you have observed that this thread is approaching 100,00 views..............that's an amazing accomplishment. My calculations show that there are only six other threads here at FF with over 100,000 views. WOW!

fozzy, did you ever envision that the humble little thread you started back in September would reach this milestone? And........we have a simple trading system that works very well when the rules are strictly followed. Join me in raising a glass to fozzy......... (I prefer James Squires Amber Ale.......cheers)
  • #1,186
  • Dec 4, 2006 1:51pm Dec 4, 2006 1:51pm
Quoting mrkam
Ahhhh sensei.... against the daily trend.....
But most of Fozzy trades are counter trend , is there any rule which one should be taken and which one not? How is the trend or strong trend defined ? Has solar wind any role in this respect?
Thanks for clarification.


Regards

howard
Regards
  • #1,187
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:06pm Dec 4, 2006 2:06pm
Quoting howard
But most of Fozzy trades are counter trend , is there any rule which one should be taken and which one not? How is the trend or strong trend defined ? Has solar wind any role in this respect?
Thanks for clarification.


Regards

howard
I have been using Solar Wind in this respect. While it will redraw the size of the trend to some degree, the direction is typically spot on. When using this indicator take trades in the direction of the trend. Often times trades will initiate as the trend is changing direction. Usually in this case you can wait for confirmation before entering, otherwise you might get in prematurely but that's up to you. I think more often than not, though, if the trend is about to switch directions and a cross is indicated in that direction you will be ok - it's up to you at that point.

One other comment I might make about the solar wind. Given its desire to adjust its self based on past behavior, I'm thinking of refreshing the display after the start of each daily bar to see the new look... Anyone know if there is a way to force an indicator to reload its self at a set time?

Jason
  • #1,188
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:16pm Dec 4, 2006 2:16pm
Quoting jlowder
I have been using Solar Wind in this respect. While it will redraw the size of the trend to some degree, the direction is typically spot on. When using this indicator take trades in the direction of the trend. Often times trades will initiate as the trend is changing direction. Usually in this case you can wait for confirmation before entering, otherwise you might get in prematurely but that's up to you. I think more often than not, though, if the trend is about to switch directions and a cross is indicated in that direction you will be ok - it's up to you at that point.

One other comment I might make about the solar wind. Given its desire to adjust its self based on past behavior, I'm thinking of refreshing the display after the start of each daily bar to see the new look... Anyone know if there is a way to force an indicator to reload its self at a set time?

Jason
Thanks Jason

please take a look at EUR/USD and GBP/USD , cross is under way which will complete on close of the current bar, however it is against the trend but Solar is approaching zero line, how do you assess this situation? Is it a go or no go?

Regards

howard
Regards
  • #1,189
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:25pm Dec 4, 2006 2:25pm
Quoting BeachBum
Join me in raising a glass to fozzy.........
Yes, indeed - thanks to fozzy (& accrete for planting the initial idea), BB and everyone else who has contributed !

J.
  • #1,190
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:28pm Dec 4, 2006 2:28pm
Quoting howard
Thanks Jason

please take a look at EUR/USD and GBP/USD , cross is under way which will complete on close of the current bar, however it is against the trend but Solar is approaching zero line, how do you assess this situation? Is it a go or no go?

Regards

howard
Take a look at the current chart and where I placed the circles. If you'll note, a similar cross happened earlier on while the trend was up, but almost at zero. Then the price continued upwards - it was just a retracement. I'm becoming more inclined to think I should just wait for the solar to change directions before entering a trade.

Also, I'm inclined to believe now that the couple hour Sunday bars on IBFX are screwing with the fozzy system. If you look at FXDDs chart, the cross is almost there but hasn't quite happened yet. And this is more in agreement with the Solar signal. I'm going to switch over to FXDD to hopefully get a little more clarity out of my signals. Another item to note, is that the price hasn't completely moved away from the donchian channels (SR) so I think I'm going to wait on this trade. Same thing with the cable trade..

Jason
Attached Image
  • #1,191
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:33pm Dec 4, 2006 2:33pm
Quoting howard
please take a look at EUR/USD and GBP/USD , cross is under way which will complete on close of the current bar, however it is against the trend but Solar is approaching zero line, how do you assess this situation? Is it a go or no go?
This has been a HUGE move.... possibly more than just a very large swing, perhaps a shift to a new dollar range against the 3 European majors (time will tell), so I would want to see all 3 - GBPUSD, EURUSD & USDCHF - signal before taking the trade against the big swing in just one of them. Waiting for all 3 to signal might mean getting in later, but this might help avoid a whipsaw if trading this highly correlated trio.

My $0.02c.

J.
  • #1,192
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:38pm Dec 4, 2006 2:38pm
I have each of these a separate indicators, but not as a combination. Would you please be so kind as to post the indicator? Thanks.

Quoting jlowder
Take a look at the current chart and where I placed the circles. If you'll note, a similar cross happened earlier on while the trend was up, but almost at zero. Then the price continued upwards - it was just a retracement. I'm becoming more inclined to think I should just wait for the solar to change directions before entering a trade.

Also, I'm inclined to believe now that the couple hour Sunday bars on IBFX are screwing with the fozzy system. If you look at FXDDs chart, the cross is almost there but hasn't quite happened yet. And this is more in agreement with the Solar signal. I'm going to switch over to FXDD to hopefully get a little more clarity out of my signals. Another item to note, is that the price hasn't completely moved away from the donchian channels (SR) so I think I'm going to wait on this trade. Same thing with the cable trade..

Jason
"Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional"
  • #1,193
  • Dec 4, 2006 2:50pm Dec 4, 2006 2:50pm
Quoting carmel
I have each of these a separate indicators, but not as a combination. Would you please be so kind as to post the indicator? Thanks.
I just tossed the fozzy indicator on top of the solar winds. I don't have one single indicator for them.

Jason
  • #1,194
  • Dec 4, 2006 3:05pm Dec 4, 2006 3:05pm
jason, that mt4 indicator you attached earlier, is it for the daily charts?


Quoting jlowder
I just tossed the fozzy indicator on top of the solar winds. I don't have one single indicator for them.

Jason
  • #1,195
  • Dec 4, 2006 3:11pm Dec 4, 2006 3:11pm
Quoting coolshades
jason, that mt4 indicator you attached earlier, is it for the daily charts?
I have Fozzy, Solar Winds, ATR and Donchian Channels on there.. They should all appear on lower time frames. I don't know about uses for solar or fozzy on anything other than dailys though..

Jason
  • #1,196
  • Edited 3:21pm Dec 4, 2006 3:20pm | Edited 3:21pm
Yes, but....!! Check out all the trades just listed by BB, plot them on your charts, and pay particular attention to the slopes of the Vargas tunnels...

All of these trades went WITH the Vargas trend, or at least, not against.. (some trades taken were on a flat Vargas, which as time showed, was a transition).

So while Fozzy might be considered somewhat of a counter-trend system, I would say not exclusively so. Many trades are indeed countertrend (my referenced USDCHF), but many are NOT!!! and therein lies the beauty, I think, and the discipline to be patient. Last week, (and other previous week trades posted in review by BB), proves (to me at least) that there are PLENTY of with-trend trades with this system, and as such, have a higher probability of success. As I see it, the Beach Fozzy approach offers a significantly improved win rate over the "naked" Fozzy (basic, as originally described.) If we wait for the with-trend trades, of which there will be plenty, we will do better, IMHO.

my 2 pips on that one!
  • #1,197
  • Dec 4, 2006 3:37pm Dec 4, 2006 3:37pm
Quoting mrkam
Yes, but....!! Check out all the trades just listed by BB, plot them on your charts, and pay particular attention to the slopes of the Vargas tunnels...

All of these trades went WITH the Vargas trend, or at least, not against.. (some trades taken were on a flat Vargas, which as time showed, was a transition).

So while Fozzy might be considered somewhat of a counter-trend system, I would say not exclusively so. Many trades are indeed countertrend (my referenced USDCHF), but many are NOT!!! and therein lies the beauty, I think, and the discipline to be patient. Last week, (and other previous week trades posted in review by BB), proves (to me at least) that there are PLENTY of with-trend trades with this system, and as such, have a higher probability of success. As I see it, the Beach Fozzy approach offers a significantly improved win rate over the "naked" Fozzy (basic, as originally described.) If we wait for the with-trend trades, of which there will be plenty, we will do better, IMHO.

my 2 pips on that one!
Thanks a lot, by virtue of this explanation we have to wait until the price crosses the tunnel

howard
Regards
  • #1,198
  • Dec 4, 2006 3:43pm Dec 4, 2006 3:43pm
glad to see the light is getting brighter......

Quoting mrkam
Yes, but....!! Check out all the trades just listed by BB, plot them on your charts, and pay particular attention to the slopes of the Vargas tunnels...


All of these trades went WITH the Vargas trend, or at least, not against.. (some trades taken were on a flat Vargas, which as time showed, was a transition).

So while Fozzy might be considered somewhat of a counter-trend system, I would say not exclusively so. Many trades are indeed countertrend (my referenced USDCHF), but many are NOT!!! and therein lies the beauty, I think, and the discipline to be patient. Last week, (and other previous week trades posted in review by BB), proves (to me at least) that there are PLENTY of with-trend trades with this system, and as such, have a higher probability of success. As I see it, the Beach Fozzy approach offers a significantly improved win rate over the "naked" Fozzy (basic, as originally described.) If we wait for the with-trend trades, of which there will be plenty, we will do better, IMHO.

my 2 pips on that one!
  • #1,199
  • Dec 4, 2006 3:44pm Dec 4, 2006 3:44pm
not always...........

Quoting howard
Thanks a lot, by virtue of this explanation we have to wait until the price crosses the tunnel

howard
  • #1,200
  • Dec 4, 2006 4:06pm Dec 4, 2006 4:06pm
howard, beach has beaten me to this..but if i may elaborate..

no you dont have to wait for the price to cross the tunnel

in the attached chart eurcad on the gmt charts, there is a cross on the beach fozzy suggesting a short trade. this is the last candle just formed at 10 pm GMT (circled) BUT if you look at the last 3-4 weeks the price has been trending upwards so this trade is best left alone. (atleast i am) .

i will post one more chart

Quoting howard
Thanks a lot, by virtue of this explanation we have to wait until the price crosses the tunnel

howard
Attached Image
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