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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #4,161
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:58pm Aug 6, 2007 3:58pm
Do you expect everyone to be right 100% of the time? no one is right 100% of the time.. so give him credit for voicing his opinion and helping out others
Quoting digitizer123
See what I mean . . . here we go again . . . man stop the BS , I have serious doubt if you are trading anything,
  • #4,162
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:08pm Aug 6, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting karmostaji
I don't feel like posting anything after how this last trade turned out, but yes that is what i think

Ouch!

It was the last hour of the 4H that did it's dirty deed and I was gone for the better part of that hour. Came back only to discover I had been stopped out of my trade @ 240.78 (100 pip SL) but still feel the bite.

I pride myself in an intermediate knowledge of candlesticks and should have narrowed my SL in anticipation of a potential reversal signal with that spinning top. Not to mention taking note of the DOW throughout. I'm learning to treat this pair like walking a tightrope.

Stay with us. We still need you man.
  • #4,163
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:09pm Aug 6, 2007 4:09pm
Quoting karmostaji
Retracement to 5SMA on 1H chart, we might test the 38.2 fibo (green line on my chart) at 242.70 area
Karmo - which two points are u using for your fibo on the hourlies?
  • #4,164
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:13pm Aug 6, 2007 4:13pm
I'm not so sure I would totally blame the dow for this last increase. Just seems like there was general yen weakness across the board. Look at EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY. They all jumped up like the G/J while the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD all remained kind of flat as well as a rallying AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I would expect to see stronger USD activity associated with the dow before this big of a change in the GBP/JPY.

Bur I'm just a newb like most of you, so it's just an observation.
  • #4,165
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:15pm Aug 6, 2007 4:15pm
Can someone tell me plz what is DOW
and how I can know its influence on GJ
so the next time I take care...
  • #4,166
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:16pm Aug 6, 2007 4:16pm
Quoting Timingy
Karmo - which two points are u using for your fibo on the hourlies?
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/6602/gjfl7.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,167
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:17pm Aug 6, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting Spacer5
Can someone tell me plz what is DOW
and how I can know its influence on GJ
so the next time I take care...
Its the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and basically, the stronger it is, the better shape US economy (seems) to be. Thus, the higher it is, the more people decide to stick with their carry trades of whatever/yen.
  • #4,168
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:17pm Aug 6, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting Spacer5
Can someone tell me plz what is DOW
are you serious?
  • #4,169
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:18pm Aug 6, 2007 4:18pm
Quoting Spacer5
Can someone tell me plz what is DOW
and how I can know its influence on GJ
so the next time I take care...
They are talking about the U.S. stock market in general. If it has a good day, the G/J tends to also be bullish during the NY session. If it has a bad day, then the G/J might be bearish for that session as well.
  • #4,170
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:20pm Aug 6, 2007 4:20pm
any news will come out tonight? favourable to short/long?
  • #4,171
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:21pm Aug 6, 2007 4:21pm
Quoting brucehvn
I'm not so sure I would totally blame the dow for this last increase. Just seems like there was general yen weakness across the board. Look at EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY. They all jumped up like the G/J while the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD all remained kind of flat as well as a rallying AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I would expect to see stronger USD activity associated with the dow before this big of a change in the GBP/JPY.

Bur I'm just a newb like most of you, so it's just an observation.
No, right now the environment in the global markets is that of 'risk aversion'. Strong DOW = strong carry trades.. and vice versa. Nothing to do with USD weakness or strength.

Risk aversion means not willing to take risk. Right now all carry trades are considered high risk material, just like subprime mortgages. So if the stock markets get hammered.. on increased risk perception.. carry trades will be dumped. Nobody wants to risk losing their portfolio because of the interest rate differentials. The gains are just not worth the massive losses.

I think it's the easiest way to make money right now.. at least, in this environment. When I was checking the DOW futures, they were pointing up.. and everyone (Bloomberg, cnbc, yahoo finance, etc) reported of a 'stock rebound on monday' Which is why I didn't go short on GBP/JPY.. I took my profits and went to sleep.

You have to consider both fundamentals and technicals before entering a trade.. if both point in your favor, then you know the trade is going to be 100% correct. But if one points in the opposite direction.. you're going to have to be a little cautious.

Auslan's call was perfect.. had the DOW not shot up so many points though.. we would have seen a breach of 238 and below. I always say 'Yes, this can go this low.. *but* if the markets turn around..'
  • #4,172
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:21pm Aug 6, 2007 4:21pm
Quoting Spacer5
Can someone tell me plz what is DOW
and how I can know its influence on GJ
so the next time I take care...

http://moneycentral.msn.com/stock_quote?Symbol=$INDU
  • #4,173
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:22pm Aug 6, 2007 4:22pm
Quoting panql
any news will come out tonight? favourable to short/long?
www.forexfactory.com
  • #4,174
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:24pm Aug 6, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting VishalJ
No, right now the environment in the global markets is that of 'risk aversion'. Strong DOW = strong carry trades.. and vice versa. Nothing to do with USD weakness or strength.

Risk aversion means not willing to take risk. Right now all carry trades are considered high risk material, just like subprime mortgages. So if the stock markets get hammered.. on increased risk perception.. carry trades will be dumped. Nobody wants to risk losing their portfolio because of the interest rate differentials. The gains are just not worth the massive losses.

I think it's the easiest way to make money right now.. at least, in this environment. When I was checking the DOW futures, they were pointing up.. and everyone (Bloomberg, cnbc, yahoo finance, etc) reported of a 'stock rebound on monday' Which is why I didn't go short on GBP/JPY.. I took my profits and went to sleep.

You have to consider both fundamentals and technicals before entering a trade.. if both point in your favor, then you know the trade is going to be 100% correct. But if one points in the opposite direction.. you're going to have to be a little cautious.

Auslan's call was perfect.. had the DOW not shot up so many points though.. we would have seen a breach of 238 and below. I always say 'Yes, this can go this low.. *but* if the markets turn around..'
Thanks, that's a great explanation.
  • #4,175
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:28pm Aug 6, 2007 4:28pm
I see the websites you noted that gives you an indcation where DOW may go.

However, I cant find it on the site. I just went to Bloomberg. Where they make those comments. I would like to see it and use it for as part of my analysis prior to making a trade.


THanks

Quoting VishalJ
No, right now the environment in the global markets is that of 'risk aversion'. Strong DOW = strong carry trades.. and vice versa. Nothing to do with USD weakness or strength.

Risk aversion means not willing to take risk. Right now all carry trades are considered high risk material, just like subprime mortgages. So if the stock markets get hammered.. on increased risk perception.. carry trades will be dumped. Nobody wants to risk losing their portfolio because of the interest rate differentials. The gains are just not worth the massive losses.

I think it's the easiest way to make money right now.. at least, in this environment. When I was checking the DOW futures, they were pointing up.. and everyone (Bloomberg, cnbc, yahoo finance, etc) reported of a 'stock rebound on monday' Which is why I didn't go short on GBP/JPY.. I took my profits and went to sleep.

You have to consider both fundamentals and technicals before entering a trade.. if both point in your favor, then you know the trade is going to be 100% correct. But if one points in the opposite direction.. you're going to have to be a little cautious.

Auslan's call was perfect.. had the DOW not shot up so many points though.. we would have seen a breach of 238 and below. I always say 'Yes, this can go this low.. *but* if the markets turn around..'
  • #4,176
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:29pm Aug 6, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting brucehvn
I'm not so sure I would totally blame the dow for this last increase. Just seems like there was general yen weakness across the board. Look at EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY. They all jumped up like the G/J while the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CAD all remained kind of flat as well as a rallying AUD/USD and NZD/USD. I would expect to see stronger USD activity associated with the dow before this big of a change in the GBP/JPY.

Bur I'm just a newb like most of you, so it's just an observation.
The dollar pairs (except for UJ) basically reflect the strength or weakness of the dollar. There is nothing that would signal a sharply stronger dollar, so those pairs shouldn't react significantly. The yen pairs reflect speculation activity more than information about the strength/weakness of the currencies themselves. You would expect currencies that speculators are betting on would tend to follow the stock market, as it is basically the same group of people playing both markets.

One of my arguement is that as speculation activity dries up, through a reduction in credit availability/fear/recession/interest rate adjustments, you will see two results. One is a crash of the stock market. The second is a retracement of the yen pairs to a level more appropriate to the true values of the currencies. For the pound especially, this will be a significant reduction from current levels.

Of course, if you believe that the global economy is good, the exponential growth of money supplies can continue indefinitely, world oil production can increase forever, etc., then feel free to ignore my postings and assume that the carry trade party can go on forever.
  • #4,177
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:30pm Aug 6, 2007 4:30pm
Quoting panql
any news will come out tonight? favourable to short/long?
Tommorrow morning, USD News.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4,178
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:32pm Aug 6, 2007 4:32pm
Has this been linked on the forum yet?
Inserted Video




Its not even that offtopic here
  • #4,179
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:32pm Aug 6, 2007 4:32pm
Guys,

Here's the problem with this thread:

You guys are getting your demo acct's burned up now but one day it may be for real. There's no real good trading technique and/or technical analysis going on. Daily?, 4hr? hourly? Trendlines upside down - rightside up? DOW this DOW that! Fib this Fib that!

I said this before: Take a step back from your computer and this thread -- look what's happening on your charts. Forget the hype of the thread b/c strength in masses is NOT going to help this pair stay in your favor and continue the course when it's changing directions just b/c 50 traders keep posting the same thing!

NOW, are you swinging this on a daily/4hourly? Or are you using 1hr charts?
Or all 3?

OK - If you're using a 4 hr, and you missed the re-entry near the close yesterday and came back at ANY BAR THEREAFTER in 4hr increments , do you:

Look at your chart, say "Hmmm, the support line at 239.20 ish isn't broken yet, hmmm...what to do? Maybe I'll get on the FF thread, post 200 times about entering using the daily (even though we're in the middle of the day and the bar hasn't closed yet , hmmm.... how about...yeah...I'll also post on entering using the 4hr and shorting even though the support line STILL IS NOT broken,... hmmm... no...maybe I'll use the hourly, post some more about shorting (THIS BABY'S GOING DOWN - YEAH BABY) where there seems to be an ongoing 5-6 hourly bar phenomenon that HASN'T yet broken the support line yet ...hmmm.... or I can ignore the ENSUING broken upper trendline at 1700 on the hourly that told me my shorts NEED TO BE COVERED, post some more about this baby going down (YEAH BABY GO GO GO!)....or I can simply blame it on the DOW after I lost 200 pips which, using sound money management and the good ole' standard 2% MM, would require a $100,000 acct. to trade 1 standard lot! (do the math on that 1% MM guy!) OR....................

Come on guys,

FOR 6 STRAIGHT HOURLY CLOSES 12:00 to 17:00 GMT THERE WAS CONTINUOUS SUPPORT REJECTION GOING ON

STILL ON THE HOURLY UPPER TRENDLINES BROKEN ON THE 1700 BAR (1800 if you're lining up tails)

However, If you were on the 4hourly, you either would've been sitting this out waiting after missing the reentry yesterday (there was actually a decent TL chart posted earlier showing the 4hr unbroken and still as I'm writing this), or you should've/would've dropped down to the hourly and saw that the support still wasn't broken, and perhaps waited for an hourly CLOSE or 4hourly CLOSE looking for S/R/TL's lines to break in order for an entry to take place.

Really the best piece of advice IMHO though would be to stop playing around and start using this strategy on some pairs you'll be able to trade with when you start trading professionally. Honestly, if you're not going to use a rentry strategy with tighter SL's or some sort of other cohesive strategy, what's the point? YOU CAN'T TRADE FOR REAL LIKE THIS! Or I guess you can still have fun goofing off with this but don't make up excuses and reasons that make no sense when you keep getting blown up using this thread and it's participants.

Edit: 1 other thing. I see a lot of "so and so was PERFECT" on this call and that. What???

Nevertheless, I wish all Good Luck/Good Trading

kt
  • #4,180
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:32pm Aug 6, 2007 4:32pm
Quoting VishalJ
No, right now the environment in the global markets is that of 'risk aversion'. Strong DOW = strong carry trades.. and vice versa. Nothing to do with USD weakness or strength.

Risk aversion means not willing to take risk. Right now all carry trades are considered high risk material, just like subprime mortgages. So if the stock markets get hammered.. on increased risk perception.. carry trades will be dumped. Nobody wants to risk losing their portfolio because of the interest rate differentials. The gains are just not worth the massive losses.

I think it's the easiest way to make money right now.. at least, in this environment. When I was checking the DOW futures, they were pointing up.. and everyone (Bloomberg, cnbc, yahoo finance, etc) reported of a 'stock rebound on monday' Which is why I didn't go short on GBP/JPY.. I took my profits and went to sleep.

You have to consider both fundamentals and technicals before entering a trade.. if both point in your favor, then you know the trade is going to be 100% correct. But if one points in the opposite direction.. you're going to have to be a little cautious.

Auslan's call was perfect.. had the DOW not shot up so many points though.. we would have seen a breach of 238 and below. I always say 'Yes, this can go this low.. *but* if the markets turn around..'

excellent analysis. Two thumbs up.

I also saw the dow futures were up, but I believed we would see an early uptick and then a down day. Guess I blew that one.
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