Moody's: United States ratings cut to AA1 from AAA

Moody's: United States ratings cut to AA1 from AAA

Moody's: United States ratings cut to AA1 from AAA.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) May 16, 2025

Added at 1:46pm

MOODY'S:

US' FISCAL PERFORMANCE IS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE RELATIVE TO ITS OWN PAST AND COMPARED TO OTHER HIGHLY-RATED SOVEREIGNS

DO NOT EXPECT THAT US' LONG-TERM GROWTH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY TARIFFS
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 16, 2025

Added at 1:48pm

MOODY'S:

RECOGNIZE US' SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL STRENGTHS, BELIEVE THESE NO LONGER FULLY COUNTERBALANCE DECLINE IN FISCAL METRICS

ANTICIPATE US' FEDERAL DEBT BURDEN WILL RISE TO ABOUT 134% OF GDP BY 2035, COMPARED TO 98% IN 2024
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 16, 2025

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Vancarbon

May 16, 2025 2:06pm

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Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases .

Opex expired. Weekend close .

It really is a work of art .

ffghost

May 16, 2025 2:20pm

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August 1, 2023 was the prior downgrade (Monday after hours). Markets gapped lower on the open, slight rally (nearly closed the gap) and then a downward slide for the next two weeks.

S&P slid from 4600 to 4350 before finding a short term bottom. It marked the start of a volatile run through October all the way down to 4122.

Good luck in the next few days/weeks everyone...I sense some pain ahead

ffghost

May 16, 2025 1:53pm

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And so starts the great sell off next week

AaronWard

May 16, 2025 5:29pm

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It is worth noting we live in a different time so the impact might not be as severe. No doubt the downgrade is bad, but probably not as bad as declaring a trade war on the world, publicly conspiring to crash the USD, declaring a near trade embargo on China, threatening to fire the head of the Fed, and so on.

ffghost

May 16, 2025 2:06pm

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This happened in August a few years back.....it wasn't pretty. Yellen came out saying how disappointed she was in the rating as it was unjustified....I can only IMAGINE what Trump will have to say about this

mbefus

May 16, 2025 2:15pm

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...I can only IMAGINE what Trump will have to say about this. A bunch of blather word salad, of course. Then the feckless attempts at intimidation, which are having less and less effect now. Soon, he'll be begging instead of threatening.

Vancarbon

May 16, 2025 3:58pm

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Quoting Trader#99C8

Disliked

{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....

Ignored

I think you’re missing the context of what the downgrade is saying re: Federal deficit

Vancarbon

May 18, 2025 11:35am

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Quoting CashBox

Disliked

And now we see the bias again: "Mark Zandi, the economist for Moodys, is an Obama advisor and Clinton donor who has been a Never Trumper since 2016. Nobody takes his analysis seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again. https://t.co/l1dUFM5BRY Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) May 16, 2025"

Ignored

You really should fact check before posting .

https://www.ft.com/content/2ed8372b-...1-dd1b9ef8feaa

“We’ve already seen the White House dismiss the analysis, and lash out at Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist. Steven Cheung, assistant to the President, tweeted: “Nobody takes his ‘analysis’ seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again.”

As reported in MainFT, Zandi was not an author of this report and works for Moody’s Analytics, a separate part of the company that is not part of its ratings business.”

CashBox

May 18, 2025 4:51am

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And now we see the bias again:
"Mark Zandi, the economist for Moodys, is an Obama advisor and Clinton donor who has been a Never Trumper since 2016. Nobody takes his analysis seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again. https://t.co/l1dUFM5BRY
Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) May 16, 2025"

Trader#8F7D

May 16, 2025 2:00pm

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Bidens credit rating

Trader#56EA

May 16, 2025 2:16pm

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Quoting Vancarbon

Disliked

Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases . Opex expired. Weekend close . It really is a work of art .

Ignored

Corruption across the board. Everyone's tired of this shitty slave system...

NotAtrader

May 16, 2025 11:34pm

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Relax! I don't expect anything sensational to happen during opening next week. I may be wrong, but there are many more a lot worse challenges in the market which have been going on for months. The market's volatility will remain for many more months to come and this a good thing for those who are here to make money.

Vancarbon

May 18, 2025 10:40am

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I see the UK has surpassed China in holding US treasuries .

China dumping !

That’s telling us something , in a bold statement .

Decoupling has begun .

ffghost

May 16, 2025 2:10pm

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Quoting Trader#B320

Disliked

The news wasn’t even on here damn

Ignored

Haha, yeah, it is a shame Moody's doesn't tell FF when it is going to release downgrade data...odd.

ffghost

May 16, 2025 5:42pm — Edited

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Quoting AaronWard

Disliked

It is worth noting we live in a different time so the impact might not be as severe. No doubt the downgrade is bad, but probably not as bad as declaring a trade war on the world, publicly conspiring to crash the USD, declaring a near trade embargo on China, threatening to fire the head of the Fed, and so on.

Ignored

It is a different time .... But 2023 wasn't that long ago. Looking at the charts for August 1 onward, it wasn't pretty. Many would contend that the economy looked a little better at that time as well compared to the "potentially dire" outlook today.

Now, I would REALLY like to see the market shrug this off, but I worry after such a big run. A pullback would have been normal anyway, but this could spiral fast

Subdude

May 16, 2025 2:51pm

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Quoting Trader#FB1D

Disliked

News is out, futures gave back a tiny handful of points, how in the world does anyone consider this important? If it was important the futures would have sold off a lot, not 20 pints after a 1200 point up move from the low. It’s honestly ridiculous to give this news weight based on the given reaction. SPY trading right now higher than any previous day lol.

Ignored

This is actually a big deal. In addition to the purely symbolic status of U.S. Govt debt not being rated triple A, this means it needs to pay higher interest rate on the new debt they issue, which means the so called "risk free" rate of return goes up, which means equities need to adjust lower to reward for taking the risk (providing a rate of return higher than the govt pays on its debt)

Subdude

May 16, 2025 3:54pm

Permalink

Quoting Trader#99C8

Disliked

{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....

Ignored

You're really reaching there homes - maybe S&P 500 isn't down huge AH, but first off, it's Friday almost 7 pm ET and most of the selling hasn't taken place yet, as everyone's gone to watch the Knicks game or whatever lol. Second, while the broad index is only down about 1%, if you look at the riskiest trash out there like PLTR etc, they are down much more. Third, if this pullback has nothing to do with the downgrade, what a bizarre coincidence time wise, ain't it? Fourth, this is just the beginning - who's to say the other agencies won't drop their ratings too now, whatever it is now? It's not like "the party of fiscal responsibility" gives a damn about deficits, it's all about keeping more of the loot for themselves.

fenikss14916

May 17, 2025 7:57am

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Quoting Trader#B9F9

Disliked

{quote} Sorry but to see the idiot one must look into the mirror. These "ratings" of US Bonds are nonsensical to anyone in the know. Name any country other than the US, Switzerland and the UK who's economies and "net worth" are unsinkable? Your argument has been raised since the 1970's so you and your ilk have been wrong for 50 years now. The US Economy doesn't need the world to survive but the countries of the world can't survive without the US Economy. You may not like it but that is a fact - Covid proved it. Stop fighting...

Ignored

Confidence in the U.S. economy is understandable, but viewing it as the sole engine of global prosperity is simplistic. The world is now multipolar—China, India, and emerging markets are rising fast. Criticizing ratings is valid, but dismissing long-term risks is shortsighted. Currency speculation is a personal bet, but history teaches humility. COVID proved interdependence, not monopoly. The world isn't split into winners and losers—it's interconnected.

Subdude

May 16, 2025 2:53pm

Permalink

Quoting mbefus

Disliked

...I can only IMAGINE what Trump will have to say about this. A bunch of blather word salad, of course. Then the feckless attempts at intimidation, which are having less and less effect now. Soon, he'll be begging instead of threatening.

Ignored

I beat you to it by a few minutes: https://www.forexfactory.com/news/13...m#post15248862

Windstrown

May 16, 2025 2:15pm

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Quoting ffghost

Disliked

And so starts the great sell off next week

Ignored

Timing for this is impeccable these people should all be arrested lol

ww3361

May 17, 2025 3:33am

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If you're saying the conflict of interest had meant that this whole time the emperor's been wearing no clothes... then you might be on to something.

I personally use The Simpsons to guide my trading decisions. I would also post a video link, and it be unavailable.

Although you've presented your case in an outlandish fashion.. I think the US Treasury today is indeed equivalent to the too big to fail banks of 2008. The former now holding the shite of the latter. It all points to a ponzi housing market.

Trader#FC84

May 16, 2025 2:18pm

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Trump... " I want to sack Moodys, they dont make good deals "

Trader#85C4

May 17, 2025 4:39am

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I have never seen such a concerted, coordinate, and comprehensive campaign against any one person in my entire life. The lights have been switched on and the coach rochaes are running for cover.

Vancarbon

May 17, 2025 8:54am

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The market went up 5% last week on a relief rally . It’s fair to say that this downgrade due to fiscal deficit issues is likely to take a minimum 1% from last weeks close . I would suspect it’ll take all 5% back over the 2nd quarter, maybe even earlier .

Too many unknowns atm

Vancarbon

May 18, 2025 11:44am

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Expect a market reaction , probably not as severe as the SP’s reaction which caused one of the largest falls on record after Lehmans . However, it is important and Moody’s could have actually rated lower than Aa1 .

A lot lower.

The market will probably shakeout lower then try to stabilise. If Trump gets involved verbally then it’ll exacerbate the situation.

ffghost

May 16, 2025 2:09pm

Permalink

Quoting Vancarbon

Disliked

Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases . Opex expired. Weekend close . It really is a work of art .

Ignored

Yep....making us work early next week. The gap down will be interesting through after the futures gave back quite a bit before they closed. BTD couple be in full swing if some big EU/USA news comes this weekend, but otherwise, this is likely what the market was looking for to take a leg lower.

CashBox

May 17, 2025 1:35am

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Was it Moody's who was outed in the movie The Big Short for only doing what they are paid to do? Meaning, if a client is paying them a fee, they will rate things the way the client asks because the client is paying the bills and, if this rating agency doesn't do it, another one will.

CashBox

May 17, 2025 2:55am

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Quoting ww3361

Disliked

{quote} You've confused conflict of interest with straight up fraud. So no, The Big Short did not do what you suggested. OMFG.

Ignored

Try again. It is straight up fraud:

Inserted Video

CashBox

May 17, 2025 3:06am

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Quoting ww3361

Disliked

{quote} I'm guessing the "unavailable" video you posted, shows a scene from The Big Short? I still wouldn't call it fraud. Are you saying that someone went into Moody's and paid them to cut US debt rating? Genuinely?

Ignored

Sure, someone paying Moody's to cut the US debt rating could happen. We all know a lot of money is being paid out to push the destruction of the US, Europe, and everyone else.
The US debt rating should have been cut years ago and should have been cut many times by now so the payoffs could go both ways. In this case, timing is everything.
Try typing in youtube . com and then /watch?v=1RwwTgTVnJs

Inserted Video

atillaken

May 16, 2025 10:58pm

Permalink

Quoting Trader#99C8

Disliked

{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....

Ignored

I disagree. YEN will get stronger, as it already weaken over the past 2 years enormously.

Subdude

May 16, 2025 2:12pm

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My great AG Pam Bondi is going to look into these dishonest and criminal ratings agencies who want to smear the greatest economy in history! Prices are down, inflation is down, deals are being made, America is "GREAT" again!!!

GainingBucks

May 17, 2025 7:14pm

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Quoting Trader#85C4

Disliked

I have never seen such a concerted, coordinate, and comprehensive campaign against any one person in my entire life. The lights have been switched on and the coach rochaes are running for cover.

Ignored

Seen since 2015

ww3361

May 17, 2025 2:53am

Permalink

Quoting CashBox

Disliked

Was it Moody's who was outed in the movie The Big Short for only doing what they are paid to do? Meaning, if a client is paying them a fee, they will rate things the way the client asks because the client is paying the bills and, if this rating agency doesn't do it, another one will.

Ignored

You've confused conflict of interest with straight up fraud.

So no, The Big Short did not do what you suggested.

OMFG.

ww3361

May 17, 2025 2:58am

Permalink

Quoting CashBox

Disliked

{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RwwTgTVnJs

Ignored

I'm guessing the "unavailable" video you posted, shows a scene from The Big Short? I still wouldn't call it fraud.

Are you saying that someone went into Moody's and paid them to cut US debt rating? Genuinely?

Captainchin

May 16, 2025 2:07pm

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My trade was going well until this!

Trader#BEC9

May 16, 2025 2:34pm

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Moody’s was years late to the party, they are only lowering from the absolute maximum down 1 single notch. Other rating agencies lowered long ago. I honestly can’t think of a more irrelevant headline. No wonder the SPY came back up so quickly. If they did what they should and lowered it 5 or 6 levels, then there would be a reaction, but they won’t do that until people stop buying US debt.

Trader#B68F

May 17, 2025 3:34pm

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So they're going to say this after market close, after a huge rally, pretty much telling people to buy puts or sell over the weekend and Monday... Yeahhhh. I'll just buy the dip again nothing to see here

May 16, 2025 2:02pm

Interesting

May 16, 2025 2:10pm

Federal debt !

I thought that was “ mission impossible “ . Cut the debt by the imposition of tariffs ?

Luxyus

May 18, 2025 10:29am

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useless at this point.

bulltrap

May 16, 2025 2:05pm

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Three strikes you’re out?

DuranDuran

May 16, 2025 2:02pm

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130% debt to GDP will do that to you. Who in their right mind is buying 10 yr bonds right now? More inflation is the only way out of this

atillaken

May 16, 2025 10:57pm

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Propaply USDJPY will head to 135 and also and XXXJPY pair will follow and fall dramatically due to stron YEN and specially CHFJPY and GBPJPY as JPY will get more strong and strong.

Subdude

May 19, 2025 1:40pm

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Once again, the market believed that smug idiot Scottie Bessent - the oil sheikhs are coming to bail us all out, ratings be damned. Good luck with that.

May 16, 2025 1:52pm

May 18, 2025 2:37am

Quoting Trader#8B3F

Disliked

Nasdaq1000+

Ignored

up or down?

Czyker26

May 17, 2025 9:39pm

Permalink

Just more Deep State BS that is hating all the great deals that Trump has made with the Arabs over seas this past week.
They have to under cut him in some way. He is proving how shiTTy the system is week after week and what the U.S. can do, rather than being the freaking door mat of the world.

ww3361

May 16, 2025 7:19pm

Permalink

literally not “news”. But it may wake the sheep up for a moment.

Trader#99C8

May 16, 2025 3:04pm

Permalink

Quoting Subdude

Disliked

{quote} This is actually a big deal. In addition to the purely symbolic status of U.S. Govt debt not being rated triple A, this means it needs to pay higher interest rate on the new debt they issue, which means the so called "risk free" rate of return goes up, which means equities need to adjust lower to reward for taking the risk (providing a rate of return higher than the govt pays on its debt)

Ignored

They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term.

Trader#FB1D

May 16, 2025 2:26pm

Permalink

News is out, futures gave back a tiny handful of points, how in the world does anyone consider this important? If it was important the futures would have sold off a lot, not 20 pints after a 1200 point up move from the low. It’s honestly ridiculous to give this news weight based on the given reaction. SPY trading right now higher than any previous day lol.

Trader#EC3C

May 16, 2025 4:14pm

Permalink

Quoting ffghost

Disliked

August 1, 2023 was the prior downgrade (Monday after hours). Markets gapped lower on the open, slight rally (nearly closed the gap) and then a downward slide for the next two weeks. S&P slid from 4600 to 4350 before finding a short term bottom. It marked the start of a volatile run through October all the way down to 4122. Good luck in the next few days/weeks everyone...I sense some pain ahead

Ignored

I don't expect similar reaction now. At Aug, Sep, Oct 2023, there was a possibility of Fed rate rise after 26 July 2023 rise from %5.25 to %5.5. It was not certain yet the end of rate rise cycle at that time and it was weighing on the stock market. I expect limited pullback (50-100 points maybe) and go up to 6000 and higher in following weeks. Most relevant things are now tariffs (China especially) and possible Fed rate cuts. In both of them, overall picture is positive for the time being considering China tariff truce and lower CPI/PPI inflations in this week.

Trader#BE01

May 16, 2025 4:19pm

Permalink

It’s real simple, I will spell it out for you. There is literally zero chance this news sends stocks down significantly. Until people stop desperately buying US debt, none of this matters. Stocks have gone up a shocking amount recently, any excuse to take profits makes sense, but this particular news is without question irrelevant. The other competent rating agencies lowered years ago. Nothing is new here. The deficit and the debt are exactly as they have been for a long time. Eventually the debt will be destructive, but 10 year yields have to go above 5% first.

Anon12345678

May 16, 2025 11:04pm

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Bad for Yen.

Trader#B9F9

May 17, 2025 5:26am

Permalink

Quoting Trader#99C8

Disliked

{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....

Ignored

Sorry but to see the idiot one must look into the mirror.

These "ratings" of US Bonds are nonsensical to anyone in the know. Name any country other than the US, Switzerland and the UK who's economies and "net worth" are unsinkable?

Your argument has been raised since the 1970's so you and your ilk have been wrong for 50 years now. The US Economy doesn't need the world to survive but the countries of the world can't survive without the US Economy. You may not like it but that is a fact - Covid proved it.

Stop fighting against the USD - embrace it and prosper as I will stay short EU under 1.12

Trader#3A9C

May 19, 2025 2:32am

Permalink

Quoting Vancarbon

Disliked

Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases . Opex expired. Weekend close . It really is a work of art .

Ignored

All news is priced into the market. News is a trap for retail traders.