Moody's: United States ratings cut to AA1 from AAA | Forex Factory

  • Moody's: United States ratings cut to AA1 from AAA

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Vancarbon
May 16, 2025 4:06pm
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Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases .

Opex expired. Weekend close .

It really is a work of art .
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ffghost
May 16, 2025 4:20pm
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August 1, 2023 was the prior downgrade (Monday after hours). Markets gapped lower on the open, slight rally (nearly closed the gap) and then a downward slide for the next two weeks.

S&P slid from 4600 to 4350 before finding a short term bottom. It marked the start of a volatile run through October all the way down to 4122.

Good luck in the next few days/weeks everyone...I sense some pain ahead
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AaronWard
May 16, 2025 7:29pm
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It is worth noting we live in a different time so the impact might not be as severe. No doubt the downgrade is bad, but probably not as bad as declaring a trade war on the world, publicly conspiring to crash the USD, declaring a near trade embargo on China, threatening to fire the head of the Fed, and so on.
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ffghost
May 16, 2025 3:53pm
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And so starts the great sell off next week
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ffghost
May 16, 2025 4:06pm
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This happened in August a few years back.....it wasn't pretty. Yellen came out saying how disappointed she was in the rating as it was unjustified....I can only IMAGINE what Trump will have to say about this
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mbefus
May 16, 2025 4:15pm
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...I can only IMAGINE what Trump will have to say about this. A bunch of blather word salad, of course. Then the feckless attempts at intimidation, which are having less and less effect now. Soon, he'll be begging instead of threatening.
Vancarbon
May 16, 2025 5:58pm
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Quoting Trader#99C8
{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....
I think you’re missing the context of what the downgrade is saying re: Federal deficit
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Vancarbon
May 18, 2025 1:35pm
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Quoting CashBox
And now we see the bias again: "Mark Zandi, the economist for Moodys, is an Obama advisor and Clinton donor who has been a Never Trumper since 2016. Nobody takes his analysis seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again. https://t.co/l1dUFM5BRY Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) May 16, 2025"
You really should fact check before posting .

https://www.ft.com/content/2ed8372b-...1-dd1b9ef8feaa

“We’ve already seen the White House dismiss the analysis, and lash out at Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist. Steven Cheung, assistant to the President, tweeted: “Nobody takes his ‘analysis’ seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again.”

As reported in MainFT, Zandi was not an author of this report and works for Moody’s Analytics, a separate part of the company that is not part of its ratings business.”
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CashBox
May 18, 2025 6:51am
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And now we see the bias again:
"Mark Zandi, the economist for Moodys, is an Obama advisor and Clinton donor who has been a Never Trumper since 2016. Nobody takes his analysis seriously. He has been proven wrong time and time again. https://t.co/l1dUFM5BRY
Steven Cheung (@StevenCheung47) May 16, 2025"
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Trader#8F7D
May 16, 2025 4:00pm
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Bidens credit rating
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Trader#56EA
May 16, 2025 4:16pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases . Opex expired. Weekend close . It really is a work of art .
Corruption across the board. Everyone's tired of this shitty slave system...
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NotAtrader
May 17, 2025 1:34am
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Relax! I don't expect anything sensational to happen during opening next week. I may be wrong, but there are many more a lot worse challenges in the market which have been going on for months. The market's volatility will remain for many more months to come and this a good thing for those who are here to make money.
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Vancarbon
May 18, 2025 12:40pm
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I see the UK has surpassed China in holding US treasuries .

China dumping !

That’s telling us something , in a bold statement .

Decoupling has begun .
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ffghost
May 16, 2025 4:10pm
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Quoting Trader#B320
The news wasn’t even on here damn
Haha, yeah, it is a shame Moody's doesn't tell FF when it is going to release downgrade data...odd.
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ffghost
May 16, 2025 7:42pm — Edited
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Quoting AaronWard
It is worth noting we live in a different time so the impact might not be as severe. No doubt the downgrade is bad, but probably not as bad as declaring a trade war on the world, publicly conspiring to crash the USD, declaring a near trade embargo on China, threatening to fire the head of the Fed, and so on.
It is a different time .... But 2023 wasn't that long ago. Looking at the charts for August 1 onward, it wasn't pretty. Many would contend that the economy looked a little better at that time as well compared to the "potentially dire" outlook today.

Now, I would REALLY like to see the market shrug this off, but I worry after such a big run. A pullback would have been normal anyway, but this could spiral fast
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Subdude
May 16, 2025 4:51pm
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Quoting Trader#FB1D
News is out, futures gave back a tiny handful of points, how in the world does anyone consider this important? If it was important the futures would have sold off a lot, not 20 pints after a 1200 point up move from the low. It’s honestly ridiculous to give this news weight based on the given reaction. SPY trading right now higher than any previous day lol.
This is actually a big deal. In addition to the purely symbolic status of U.S. Govt debt not being rated triple A, this means it needs to pay higher interest rate on the new debt they issue, which means the so called "risk free" rate of return goes up, which means equities need to adjust lower to reward for taking the risk (providing a rate of return higher than the govt pays on its debt)
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Subdude
May 16, 2025 5:54pm
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Quoting Trader#99C8
{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....
You're really reaching there homes - maybe S&P 500 isn't down huge AH, but first off, it's Friday almost 7 pm ET and most of the selling hasn't taken place yet, as everyone's gone to watch the Knicks game or whatever lol. Second, while the broad index is only down about 1%, if you look at the riskiest trash out there like PLTR etc, they are down much more. Third, if this pullback has nothing to do with the downgrade, what a bizarre coincidence time wise, ain't it? Fourth, this is just the beginning - who's to say the other agencies won't drop their ratings too now, whatever it is now? It's not like "the party of fiscal responsibility" gives a damn about deficits, it's all about keeping more of the loot for themselves.
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fenikss14916
May 17, 2025 9:57am
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Quoting Trader#B9F9
{quote} Sorry but to see the idiot one must look into the mirror. These "ratings" of US Bonds are nonsensical to anyone in the know. Name any country other than the US, Switzerland and the UK who's economies and "net worth" are unsinkable? Your argument has been raised since the 1970's so you and your ilk have been wrong for 50 years now. The US Economy doesn't need the world to survive but the countries of the world can't survive without the US Economy. You may not like it but that is a fact - Covid proved it. Stop fighting...
Confidence in the U.S. economy is understandable, but viewing it as the sole engine of global prosperity is simplistic. The world is now multipolar—China, India, and emerging markets are rising fast. Criticizing ratings is valid, but dismissing long-term risks is shortsighted. Currency speculation is a personal bet, but history teaches humility. COVID proved interdependence, not monopoly. The world isn't split into winners and losers—it's interconnected.
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Subdude
May 16, 2025 4:53pm
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Quoting mbefus
...I can only IMAGINE what Trump will have to say about this. A bunch of blather word salad, of course. Then the feckless attempts at intimidation, which are having less and less effect now. Soon, he'll be begging instead of threatening.
I beat you to it by a few minutes: https://www.forexfactory.com/news/13...m#post15248862
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Windstrown
May 16, 2025 4:15pm
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Quoting ffghost
And so starts the great sell off next week
Timing for this is impeccable these people should all be arrested lol
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ww3361
May 17, 2025 5:33am
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If you're saying the conflict of interest had meant that this whole time the emperor's been wearing no clothes... then you might be on to something.

I personally use The Simpsons to guide my trading decisions. I would also post a video link, and it be unavailable.

Although you've presented your case in an outlandish fashion.. I think the US Treasury today is indeed equivalent to the too big to fail banks of 2008. The former now holding the shite of the latter. It all points to a ponzi housing market.
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Trader#FC84
May 16, 2025 4:18pm
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Trump... " I want to sack Moodys, they dont make good deals "
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Trader#85C4
May 17, 2025 6:39am
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I have never seen such a concerted, coordinate, and comprehensive campaign against any one person in my entire life. The lights have been switched on and the coach rochaes are running for cover.
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Vancarbon
May 17, 2025 10:54am
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The market went up 5% last week on a relief rally . It’s fair to say that this downgrade due to fiscal deficit issues is likely to take a minimum 1% from last weeks close . I would suspect it’ll take all 5% back over the 2nd quarter, maybe even earlier .

Too many unknowns atm
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Vancarbon
May 18, 2025 1:44pm
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Expect a market reaction , probably not as severe as the SP’s reaction which caused one of the largest falls on record after Lehmans . However, it is important and Moody’s could have actually rated lower than Aa1 .

A lot lower.

The market will probably shakeout lower then try to stabilise. If Trump gets involved verbally then it’ll exacerbate the situation.
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CashBox
May 17, 2025 3:35am
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Was it Moody's who was outed in the movie The Big Short for only doing what they are paid to do? Meaning, if a client is paying them a fee, they will rate things the way the client asks because the client is paying the bills and, if this rating agency doesn't do it, another one will.
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CashBox
May 17, 2025 4:55am
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Quoting ww3361
{quote} You've confused conflict of interest with straight up fraud. So no, The Big Short did not do what you suggested. OMFG.
Try again. It is straight up fraud:
Inserted Video
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CashBox
May 17, 2025 5:06am
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Quoting ww3361
{quote} I'm guessing the "unavailable" video you posted, shows a scene from The Big Short? I still wouldn't call it fraud. Are you saying that someone went into Moody's and paid them to cut US debt rating? Genuinely?
Sure, someone paying Moody's to cut the US debt rating could happen. We all know a lot of money is being paid out to push the destruction of the US, Europe, and everyone else.
The US debt rating should have been cut years ago and should have been cut many times by now so the payoffs could go both ways. In this case, timing is everything.
Try typing in youtube . com and then /watch?v=1RwwTgTVnJs

Inserted Video
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ffghost
May 16, 2025 4:09pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases . Opex expired. Weekend close . It really is a work of art .
Yep....making us work early next week. The gap down will be interesting through after the futures gave back quite a bit before they closed. BTD couple be in full swing if some big EU/USA news comes this weekend, but otherwise, this is likely what the market was looking for to take a leg lower.
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atillaken
May 17, 2025 12:58am
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Quoting Trader#99C8
{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....
I disagree. YEN will get stronger, as it already weaken over the past 2 years enormously.
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Subdude
May 16, 2025 4:12pm
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My great AG Pam Bondi is going to look into these dishonest and criminal ratings agencies who want to smear the greatest economy in history! Prices are down, inflation is down, deals are being made, America is "GREAT" again!!!
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GainingBucks
May 17, 2025 9:14pm
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Quoting Trader#85C4
I have never seen such a concerted, coordinate, and comprehensive campaign against any one person in my entire life. The lights have been switched on and the coach rochaes are running for cover.
Seen since 2015
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ww3361
May 17, 2025 4:53am
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Quoting CashBox
Was it Moody's who was outed in the movie The Big Short for only doing what they are paid to do? Meaning, if a client is paying them a fee, they will rate things the way the client asks because the client is paying the bills and, if this rating agency doesn't do it, another one will.
You've confused conflict of interest with straight up fraud.

So no, The Big Short did not do what you suggested.

OMFG.
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ww3361
May 17, 2025 4:58am
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Quoting CashBox
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RwwTgTVnJs
I'm guessing the "unavailable" video you posted, shows a scene from The Big Short? I still wouldn't call it fraud.

Are you saying that someone went into Moody's and paid them to cut US debt rating? Genuinely?
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Captainchin
May 16, 2025 4:07pm
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My trade was going well until this!
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Trader#BEC9
May 16, 2025 4:34pm
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Moody’s was years late to the party, they are only lowering from the absolute maximum down 1 single notch. Other rating agencies lowered long ago. I honestly can’t think of a more irrelevant headline. No wonder the SPY came back up so quickly. If they did what they should and lowered it 5 or 6 levels, then there would be a reaction, but they won’t do that until people stop buying US debt.
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Trader#B68F
May 17, 2025 5:34pm
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So they're going to say this after market close, after a huge rally, pretty much telling people to buy puts or sell over the weekend and Monday... Yeahhhh. I'll just buy the dip again nothing to see here
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Vancarbon
May 16, 2025 4:10pm
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Federal debt !

I thought that was “ mission impossible “ . Cut the debt by the imposition of tariffs ?
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Mosese
May 16, 2025 4:02pm
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Interesting
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Luxyus
May 18, 2025 12:29pm
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useless at this point.
bulltrap
May 16, 2025 4:05pm
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Three strikes you’re out?
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DuranDuran
May 16, 2025 4:02pm
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130% debt to GDP will do that to you. Who in their right mind is buying 10 yr bonds right now? More inflation is the only way out of this
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atillaken
May 17, 2025 12:57am
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Propaply USDJPY will head to 135 and also and XXXJPY pair will follow and fall dramatically due to stron YEN and specially CHFJPY and GBPJPY as JPY will get more strong and strong.
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Subdude
May 19, 2025 3:40pm
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Once again, the market believed that smug idiot Scottie Bessent - the oil sheikhs are coming to bail us all out, ratings be damned. Good luck with that.
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Foxikus
May 16, 2025 3:52pm
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upasna
May 18, 2025 4:37am
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Quoting Trader#8B3F
Nasdaq1000+
up or down?
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Czyker26
May 17, 2025 11:39pm
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Just more Deep State BS that is hating all the great deals that Trump has made with the Arabs over seas this past week.
They have to under cut him in some way. He is proving how shiTTy the system is week after week and what the U.S. can do, rather than being the freaking door mat of the world.
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ww3361
May 16, 2025 9:19pm
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literally not “news”. But it may wake the sheep up for a moment.
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Trader#99C8
May 16, 2025 5:04pm
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Quoting Subdude
{quote} This is actually a big deal. In addition to the purely symbolic status of U.S. Govt debt not being rated triple A, this means it needs to pay higher interest rate on the new debt they issue, which means the so called "risk free" rate of return goes up, which means equities need to adjust lower to reward for taking the risk (providing a rate of return higher than the govt pays on its debt)
They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term.
Reply
Trader#FB1D
May 16, 2025 4:26pm
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News is out, futures gave back a tiny handful of points, how in the world does anyone consider this important? If it was important the futures would have sold off a lot, not 20 pints after a 1200 point up move from the low. It’s honestly ridiculous to give this news weight based on the given reaction. SPY trading right now higher than any previous day lol.
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Trader#EC3C
May 16, 2025 6:14pm
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Quoting ffghost
August 1, 2023 was the prior downgrade (Monday after hours). Markets gapped lower on the open, slight rally (nearly closed the gap) and then a downward slide for the next two weeks. S&P slid from 4600 to 4350 before finding a short term bottom. It marked the start of a volatile run through October all the way down to 4122. Good luck in the next few days/weeks everyone...I sense some pain ahead
I don't expect similar reaction now. At Aug, Sep, Oct 2023, there was a possibility of Fed rate rise after 26 July 2023 rise from %5.25 to %5.5. It was not certain yet the end of rate rise cycle at that time and it was weighing on the stock market. I expect limited pullback (50-100 points maybe) and go up to 6000 and higher in following weeks. Most relevant things are now tariffs (China especially) and possible Fed rate cuts. In both of them, overall picture is positive for the time being considering China tariff truce and lower CPI/PPI inflations in this week.
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Trader#BE01
May 16, 2025 6:19pm
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It’s real simple, I will spell it out for you. There is literally zero chance this news sends stocks down significantly. Until people stop desperately buying US debt, none of this matters. Stocks have gone up a shocking amount recently, any excuse to take profits makes sense, but this particular news is without question irrelevant. The other competent rating agencies lowered years ago. Nothing is new here. The deficit and the debt are exactly as they have been for a long time. Eventually the debt will be destructive, but 10 year yields have to go above 5% first.
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Anon12345678
May 17, 2025 1:04am
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Bad for Yen.
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Trader#B9F9
May 17, 2025 7:26am
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Quoting Trader#99C8
{quote} They were only at triple A because they are idiots, other rating agencies lowered from max long ago as they should. Moody's is just going from a fake and incorrect level to one level below a fake level. If this was significant then SPY would be down huge. The market has gone up 500 S&P points non stop, of course a pullback is expected, but it has nothing to do with this so called rating cut. If the other rating agencies lower from where they are, then it matters, Moody's just coming to where everyone else was is irrelevant long term....
Sorry but to see the idiot one must look into the mirror.

These "ratings" of US Bonds are nonsensical to anyone in the know. Name any country other than the US, Switzerland and the UK who's economies and "net worth" are unsinkable?

Your argument has been raised since the 1970's so you and your ilk have been wrong for 50 years now. The US Economy doesn't need the world to survive but the countries of the world can't survive without the US Economy. You may not like it but that is a fact - Covid proved it.

Stop fighting against the USD - embrace it and prosper as I will stay short EU under 1.12
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Trader#3A9C
May 19, 2025 4:32am
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Quoting Vancarbon
Has anyone else noticed the timing of all these releases . Opex expired. Weekend close . It really is a work of art .
All news is priced into the market. News is a trap for retail traders.
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Trader#B320
May 16, 2025 4:08pm
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The news wasn’t even on here damn
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boy273
May 16, 2025 4:59pm
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Most of this debt will shift to Japan.
US stock will continue to rise. USD/JPY mostly likely to raise as it will cause Yen to weak.
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Trader#8B3F
May 16, 2025 5:44pm
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Nasdaq1000+
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Trader#BBD4
May 16, 2025 5:50pm
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Meaningless woke cope
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Trader#095F
May 16, 2025 7:14pm
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Im a new trader learning my fundamentals but releasing this news close to closing hour is bollocks
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Trader#E5FB
May 16, 2025 7:59pm
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Downgrading is good this show that how trustable the U country really is …… its reputation and credibility ….. wahahaha
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Trader#5E8D
May 17, 2025 1:29am
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Great news for USD - more liberation day freedom to fall.
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Trader#9207
May 17, 2025 3:04am
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Don't worry, not something new and big
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Trader#F87F
May 17, 2025 1:45pm
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Weekend Wall Street had the Dow down 0.2% right now, so much for the “news” crash.
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Trader#3226
May 17, 2025 3:30pm
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Moody's probably missed the market turn probably have some massive buy orders that need to be executed LOL
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Trader#8B7F
May 18, 2025 8:19am
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Quoting Trader#F87F
Weekend Wall Street had the Dow down 0.2% right now, so much for the “news” crash.
You have bad info
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Trader#5E8D
May 18, 2025 11:29am
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Arabian gold to the rescue and dollar to the moon next week.
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