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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #501
  • Aug 4, 2007 5:26pm Aug 4, 2007 5:26pm
Quoting MPP
Hi Jacko
A question about SL.
i understand the 50 pip SL, but would like to know what your trailing number is.
MPP
As quoted by Jacko earlier
Quote
50 pip trailing stop.....how much easier does it get?

I don't need to think, the stops get me out.
  • #502
  • Aug 4, 2007 6:21pm Aug 4, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting tdion
Hey Jacko

What I really meant when I asked about you picking the retracement.... how did you do it? I mean, why didn't you think 1.3600 or 1.3550 would be the bottom?
Take a look at daily chart. Fiber had a top on 27 Apr 2007.
Both 3600 and 3650 works as a top. (in fact 3608 was the lowest support a few days ago, allow for some noises). You want to focus on round number 00 and 50's as your entries. It' something like resistance turn to support kind of thing.
  • #503
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:42pm Aug 4, 2007 8:42pm
Quoting luqmanz
It' something like resistance turn to support kind of thing.
keeping with jackos round numbers and looking at a simple chart speaks a thousand words
Attached Image
  • #504
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:46pm Aug 4, 2007 8:46pm
Let me guess... around 1.3855 will be the next R turned S? .... if the market continues North....
  • #505
  • Aug 4, 2007 9:04pm Aug 4, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting tdion
Let me guess... around 1.3855 will be the next R turned S? .... if the market continues North....
That's correct... then 1.4100 and 1.4530.
  • #506
  • Aug 4, 2007 9:24pm Aug 4, 2007 9:24pm
Wait wait wait

Doesn't it have to create the R before it becomes S? I mean, you are purely speculating here. Mods delete my posts if not relevant to the method.
  • #507
  • Aug 4, 2007 10:30pm Aug 4, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting tdion
Wait wait wait

Doesn't it have to create the R before it becomes S? I mean, you are purely speculating here. Mods delete my posts if not relevant to the method.
Yes it does, and did. Look at the year 1995.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #508
  • Aug 4, 2007 11:30pm Aug 4, 2007 11:30pm
Quoting diallist
Yes it does, and did. Look at the year 1995.
Nice perspective Dialist, you have great peripheral vision. Curious if those values could still hold any sway in the practical sense, being so far back, meaning is it likely there are still orders pivoting around that level. Or in your estimation does that level carry weight only in the technical sense, insofar as we remember and assign weight to the level accordingly.

GK
Pip my ride.
  • #509
  • Edited 8:14pm Aug 5, 2007 2:36am | Edited 8:14pm
Quoting GladysKnight
Nice perspective Dialist, you have great peripheral vision. Curious if those values could still hold any sway in the practical sense, being so far back, meaning is it likely there are still orders pivoting around that level. Or in your estimation does that level carry weight only in the technical sense, insofar as we remember and assign weight to the level accordingly.

GK
The technical sense.

Of course, I'm ignoring the long I took back then that's still open after years of "hoping" the market would eventually turn around. I was RIGHT! (And also lucky it missed my 6000 pip stop loss.)

Okay, I'll get out of Jacko's excellent thread now.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #510
  • Aug 5, 2007 2:43am Aug 5, 2007 2:43am
Quoting diallist
The technical sense.

Of course, I'm ignoring the short I took back then that's still open after years of "hoping" the market would eventually turn around. I was RIGHT! (And also lucky it missed my 6000 pip stop loss.)
Good thing you didn't use the AH back then !
Pip my ride.
  • #511
  • Aug 5, 2007 5:45am Aug 5, 2007 5:45am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting PeterFM
As quoted by Jacko earlier
Hi PeterFM

i think you miss understand me, i understand the 50pips trailing stop

ie buy at 1.3700, SL at 1.3650

what i am trying to find out is the trailing number ie 10, so every time the rate moves in my favour 10pips my Sl resets in this case to 1.3660 or is it 50pips in which case the rate would have to move 50pips before it resets, so the rate goes to 1.3750 and then my SL moves to 1.3700.

it's the trailing number I am not clear about, 10pips seems to react to quick, but keeps you with 60pips of the rate whereas 50pips trailing can have you 100pips from the rate.

many thanks for your reply and i hope i have made the question clear.

regards

MPP
  • #512
  • Aug 5, 2007 6:01am Aug 5, 2007 6:01am
Quoting MPP
Hi PeterFM

i think you miss understand me, i understand the 50pips trailing stop

ie buy at 1.3700, SL at 1.3650

what i am trying to find out is the trailing number ie 10, so every time the rate moves in my favour 10pips my Sl resets in this case to 1.3660 or is it 50pips in which case the rate would have to move 50pips before it resets, so the rate goes to 1.3750 and then my SL moves to 1.3700.

it's the trailing number I am not clear about, 10pips seems to react to quick, but keeps you with 60pips of the rate whereas 50pips trailing can have you 100pips from the rate.

many thanks for your reply and i hope i have made the question clear.

regards

MPP
I can only speak for my borker, IBFX, but I think most work the same way. If I set a TS of 50, then as soon as I'm 51 pips in profit the TS comes into action. from then on it will either remain at 1 pip profit, if price retraces back to my entry, or move 1 pip at a time as long as profit is increasing.
Remember to check if your b roker actions the TS on their server, so you're always covered, or, like mine, runs from the client machine. If it's like mine I have to be connected (even if only minimised) to keep the TS live and running.
  • #513
  • Aug 5, 2007 6:44am Aug 5, 2007 6:44am
Quoting PeterFM
Most of us have been there, done that, so just take it as one of the lessons to be learned.See above A couple of points here, as I see it. Jacko trades EURUSD, and has been trading for a while. I'm sure he trades that pair for good reasons, some of which may be that it does trend well, has small spread cost (though I would guess he's not with a normal retail b roker), and has a regular rhythm that suits his trading plan.

The problems with the Yen crosses are their general volatility, susceptibility to a higher degree of fear and greed than the EURUSD pair, and the fact that they seem (to my mind) to be the domain of high percentage of retail traders looking for the carry trade bonanza.

If you take the recent sell-off, the EURUSD pair fell much less in pip terms than the Yen X pairs. Although I'm not a fundie trader my take on this is that the driving forces behind the Euro's growth really haven't changed much. Big players are moving out of the dollar, and buying Euros. Risk aversion caused a small pull-back (small for us, I mean), but there weren't thousands of Japanese pensioners closing their trades at the same time as all the larger carry traders covering their a**es as well.

No reason not to apply the basics of Jacko's method to any pair, just understand the mechanics of each pair's movement, and adjust your thinking in terms of stops, re-entries and timing. GBPJPY has BIG swings, and as another trader around has said....300 pips on GBPJPY may not actually earn you as much as 180 pips on USDJPY (lower spread, smaller stops).
Thanks Peter,

Seems looking at you posts that you have been through a similar history of trading. I first started in 2001 and have blown 5 accounts, (first 4 due to under funding) :-( but I am alot more successful now until my 60% draw down mentioned previously. I very often have 200 pips on the board and don't take profit as I never have a target only trailing stops (100 pips away + 15 pips above or below a s/r line).

Very often price comes back to trailing stop. I only move initial stop to Breakeven after a 100 pip move

I will let you know how I get on after each calendar month using Jackos method, albeit adjusted for the higher price ranging of GBP/JPY

Best regards
David
  • #514
  • Aug 5, 2007 6:45am Aug 5, 2007 6:45am
Quoting jacko
Hi rumbey,
Thanks jacko,

I'll update my trading experience after each Calendar month using your system on GBP/JPY pair

Best regards
David
  • #515
  • Aug 5, 2007 10:27am Aug 5, 2007 10:27am
This is a legitimate question and needs a clear explanation.


Quoting MPP
Hi PeterFM

i think you miss understand me, i understand the 50pips trailing stop

ie buy at 1.3700, SL at 1.3650

what i am trying to find out is the trailing number ie 10, so every time the rate moves in my favour 10pips my Sl resets in this case to 1.3660 or is it 50pips in which case the rate would have to move 50pips before it resets, so the rate goes to 1.3750 and then my SL moves to 1.3700.

it's the trailing number I am not clear about, 10pips seems to react to quick, but keeps you with 60pips of the rate whereas 50pips trailing can have you 100pips from the rate.

many thanks for your reply and i hope i have made the question clear.

regards

MPP
This is a very legitimate question. A 50 pip trailing stop needs to have an initial set number. At least with fxcm. Otherwise how are you going to 'protect' gains? Maybe Jacko is talking about a 50 pt reset with a 50 pt trailing sl ?

Lou
  • #516
  • Aug 5, 2007 11:11am Aug 5, 2007 11:11am
I believe Jacko is using tick by tick trailing stop not stepped trailing.

Those traders using MT4 can only have tick by tick trailing stop and their computer and MT4 should be running all the time for the trail to work.

Those using FXCM or other brokers with the same application can set stepped trailing stops at different intervals, a further advantage is that the stops will be residing on the brokers' servers therefore thay can shut their computers down and the trailing stops still working for them
Regards
  • #517
  • Aug 5, 2007 5:26pm Aug 5, 2007 5:26pm
I have a question regarding the anti-hedge.

I opened a trade july 16 at 1.3800, trailing stop was hit at 1.3780 so -20 pips.

on aug 3, anti hedge kicked in at 1.3780, currently around 50 pips up, my trailing stop is at +5.

my question is if it falls all the way back down to the current stop, is that considered a closed trade overall, the original order plus the anti-hedge would end up as -15... do you enter a 2nd anti-hedge? or just start over at 1.3800?

my 1.3700 trade is doing quite well, originally stopped at 1.3673, now up over 150 pips... trailing stop currently at 1.3785, guaranteeing me 112 -27= 85 pips...

thanks jacko!

Trev
  • #518
  • Aug 5, 2007 8:21pm Aug 5, 2007 8:21pm
Quoting trevwest
I have a question regarding the anti-hedge.

I opened a trade july 16 at 1.3800, trailing stop was hit at 1.3780 so -20 pips.

on aug 3, anti hedge kicked in at 1.3780, currently around 50 pips up, my trailing stop is at +5.

my question is if it falls all the way back down to the current stop, is that considered a closed trade overall, the original order plus the anti-hedge would end up as -15... do you enter a 2nd anti-hedge? or just start over at 1.3800?

my 1.3700 trade is doing quite well, originally stopped at 1.3673, now up over 150 pips... trailing stop currently at 1.3785, guaranteeing me 112 -27= 85 pips...

thanks jacko!

Trev
Any answer Jacko might give will of course override my own, but if you get stopped out at +5 pips, then that is not a losing trade. AH, per Jacko, in answer to cici's question above, is only applied to losing trades in order to recoup losses. So I would say no.
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #519
  • Aug 5, 2007 9:06pm Aug 5, 2007 9:06pm
Quoting jacko
Update on this trade:

1.3819 is now the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3769 (1.3819 - 0.0050 = 1.3769).

At the absolute worst, I will I will make a minimum of 69 pips profits less
expenses. (1.3769 - 1.3700 = 69).




.


Update on this trade:

1.3838 is now the highest point since purchase.

Trailing Stop loss currently at 1.3788 (1.3838 - 0.0050 = 1.3788).

At the absolute worst, I will I will make a minimum of 88 pips profits less
expenses. (1.3788 - 1.3700 = 88).


I am considering turning these into "buy and holds" by increasing Trailing Stop Loss from 50 pips to 100 pips. Not sure yet, am keeping 50 pips there for a little while.

Also, should price drop to 1.3750, I am a buyer.


.
  • #520
  • Aug 6, 2007 1:17am Aug 6, 2007 1:17am
Jacko,
I have a question about Anti-Hedging.How do you handle shake-outs?
Let's assume that your bias is short and your initial short position is taken out by a 50 pip rally. Then the price immediately drops back below your stop-out point and hovers between your stop-out and your original entry point. Assume the long term bearish trend is still valid.
Do you
a) Reset the order at the stop-out point(which is now above the current price)
b) Reset the order at the original entry point(which is still below the current price)
c) Do nothing - just be prepared to either reset the short order at the stop-out point if the price goes up again or look for entirely new set up if the price drops back below your original entry point.
d) none of the above...in which case I'm all ears

I'm a huge fan of this concept and am trying to incorporate it into my own trading style.
Thanks very much.

Ken
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