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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #2,501
  • Jul 28, 2007 2:55pm Jul 28, 2007 2:55pm
Glad you liked it BB. The pair is USD/JPY from 22 June to July 28. Here are some further points to note.
The bounce out of the double day lows on 2/3 June (B) which preceeded the fozzy buy 1 was a 61.8R of the previous move up (not shown).
No one knows which levels will hold. Sometimes a single one will turn the market, either 38.2, 50 or 61.8. The stronger ones tend to be confluences. Do this. Chart USD/CHF daily. May to July 2006. Put on a retracement from 15 May low to 23 June high. Repeat for June 5 low to June 23 high. Now look at 30 June to 7 July. A classic case. Nice fozzy buy on the 10th as well. Wish I'd been using it then.
A combination of retracements and expansions also provide areas to watch. For this we need a pullback of some significance in order to plot it. We got it in the trade I highlighted, once price broke back below B from the high at C. However the trend was strong as we crashed through W, stalled at X for a day, then powered down to Y and Z. Will this hold? Who knows. Here's a longer term chart. More to follow.
Attached Image
Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
  • #2,502
  • Jul 28, 2007 9:47pm Jul 28, 2007 9:47pm
First of all I would like to thank Fozzy, the generous founder for this wonderful strategy, and thank warmhearted BeachBum, Willf, coolshades, Gee Seven, jlowder, mungo, pf1966, and the bhoy .... name a few, who kindly share their ideas and actively help newbies, (and keep this thread going and going ... J)

I have spent a week to read through 167 pages on this thread. It is the longest thread I have ever read in my whole life. However it is worth reading. To any new comers, I would repeat what BB and others have said, it is worth your time. It is very risky to trade your money without knowledge. There is no easy money.

I didn’t back test this strategy (as I have built the trust during my reading). I adopted most of the ideas (daily chart, 8 & 8, MA crossover, profit talking), combined with my own strategy. I started to use this new strategy on my Oanda live account last week. From 7/25 to 7/27, I have won about 1120 pips in my Oanda live account. I want to thank you all again. This is really a profitable strategy.

I will jump into Fozzy Method Crosses thread soon after this one. BeachBum, Willf, coolshades, Gee Seven, jlowder, mungo, pf1966, and the bhoy …. can you guys recommend some good threads for a new comer like me? Thanks.

I would like to post my strategy too when I feel ready. As a newbie, for now, I think the best thing for me to do is to read, and learn from others.

Million thanks! Excuse my poor English, which is my second language. J



I wonder whether Fozzy is still here? I haven't seen his post for a long time.

BB, I always want to know what is inside your picture? Chinaman's hat?

Likeke
  • #2,503
  • Jul 29, 2007 12:21am Jul 29, 2007 12:21am
I am a big fan of the daily fozzy method. I even use it on the GBPUSD. However, since a long time, I have been using the classic fozzy method. I have found that if we do not use trailing stop losses, we will make better profits.

Does anyone still trade the classic one? any ideas?
Trading for a living!
  • #2,504
  • Jul 29, 2007 9:08am Jul 29, 2007 9:08am
Quoting Likeke
BB, I always want to know what is inside your picture? Chinaman's hat?
Likeke
Surfboard..............................
  • #2,505
  • Jul 29, 2007 12:27pm Jul 29, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting pf1966
Glad you liked it BB. The pair is USD/JPY
More great info pf1966, thanks! I'm looking forward to spending some time this week applying your strategy to the Fozzy.
  • #2,506
  • Jul 29, 2007 2:36pm Jul 29, 2007 2:36pm
Does anyone still trade the classic one? any ideas?[/quote]

Yes i do;I still use the first method because I want to trade a very simple system without fancy stuff to complicate it.

Trading this one for a couple of months now and it works for me
  • #2,507
  • Jul 31, 2007 7:52am Jul 31, 2007 7:52am
We've had some interesting discussions in this thread about Daily candle start time and the potential effect that can have on Fozzy-style trading. Here's an interesting post that I believe has some relevance and supports my own position that using a new Daily candle that starts at 5PM ET is the most profitable strategy. (Thanks to Vensik for this!)

Enjoy:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1512428
  • #2,508
  • Jul 31, 2007 7:56am Jul 31, 2007 7:56am
Thanks for the post beach. It confirms a suspicion I've held.

I am surprised at eh GMT 0 numbers. I did not expect that. But closing your candle at the close of the NY session is very sensible. I had never bothered to measure the difference, but there it is.

Cool beans.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #2,509
  • Jul 31, 2007 7:58am Jul 31, 2007 7:58am
Quoting StoragePro
Thanks for the post beach. It confirms a suspicion I've held.

I am surprised at eh GMT 0 numbers. I did not expect that. But closing your candle at the close of the NY session is very sensible. I had never bothered to measure the difference, but there it is.

Cool beans.
Very cool indeed.............................

(FF sharing rocks!!!)
  • #2,510
  • Aug 4, 2007 2:01am Aug 4, 2007 2:01am
Thank you very much Fozzy






Frank From Spain
  • #2,511
  • Aug 4, 2007 5:53pm Aug 4, 2007 5:53pm
All the Fozzy indicators posted here are using PRICE_CLOSE, which does make the chart look better, but it is kind of misleading. I think the correct one should be PRICE_OPEN.

my two cents.

Likeke
  • #2,512
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:39pm Aug 4, 2007 8:39pm
HI guys

I havent really tried this indicator yet, because its saturday...

however from past history and observing currency to indicator...it looks a bit lagging...it may be good if there is a trend forming...but it doesnt seem too useful to trade candle to candle

also I dont understand why bb has to be there...I dont understand at all the logic of why it can filter out anything...I mean its basicall like puting a 20 sma in the middle...since u dont use the bb as ranges or s/r lines
  • #2,513
  • Aug 5, 2007 6:34am Aug 5, 2007 6:34am
you can wait for the price in the point pivot after the signal of fozzy, and with that you have but pip.

only thing is that not always the case occurs. and you must be patch to your monitor
  • #2,514
  • Aug 6, 2007 7:57am Aug 6, 2007 7:57am
Hi to all,

I have a problem with the method. Many times, i see fozzy signal but after some hours it dissapear...How can i do to filter the signals to prevent false signals???

How can i be sure that the signal is true and it will not dissapear???

Thanks in advance!!!
________ EAZM-FX
  • #2,515
  • Aug 6, 2007 8:15am Aug 6, 2007 8:15am
Quoting edgarandreszm
Hi to all,

I have a problem with the method. Many times, i see fozzy signal but after some hours it dissapear...How can i do to filter the signals to prevent false signals???

How can i be sure that the signal is true and it will not dissapear???

Thanks in advance!!!
edgarandreszm...........

If you want to successfully and profitably trade this method, you must understand how it works; and at the very least that means reading this thread. Your question tells the rest of us that you have not done that. Anyone who does should not have any questions because they have all been asked and answered before.

If you're expecting the Daily Fozzy method to be a fast train to BIG profits, you should look elsewhere...................
  • #2,516
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:14am Aug 6, 2007 10:14am
Quoting BeachBum
edgarandreszm...........

If you're expecting the Daily Fozzy method to be a fast train to BIG profits, you should look elsewhere...................

Ditto that. (There is no such train!)

Recently I did a carefull study of a single pair from Jan 06 to Aug 1 recording every cross and setting SL/TP according to my personal rules. The pair was GBPUSD.

It yielded 4200 pips to the positive and a 55% win rate.

Let me make one thing perfectly clear. That measure of success means little. What made this a great exercise was the Money Management and Position sizing techniques applied. Over that period of time, the result was stunning. The size of the ending position is much higher that any would expect.

While I could simply post the spreadsheet and everyone could marvel, you would learn nothing from it. One thing I have internalized is that you have to DO IT YOURSELF. There is no substitute, no shortcut.

I would recommend this approach for every single pair you wish to trade. Prove out everything to yourself as this builds your confidence and creates solidly based beliefs that will help your trading.

Work hard and learn. It is the only way.
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #2,517
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:00am Aug 6, 2007 11:00am
Quoting StoragePro
Ditto that. (There is no such train!)

Recently I did a carefull study of a single pair from Jan 06 to Aug 1 recording every cross and setting SL/TP according to my personal rules. The pair was GBPUSD.

It yielded 4200 pips to the positive and a 55% win rate.

Let me make one thing perfectly clear. That measure of success means little. What made this a great exercise was the Money Management and Position sizing techniques applied. Over that period of time, the result was stunning. The size of the ending position is much higher that any would expect.

While I could simply post the spreadsheet and everyone could marvel, you would learn nothing from it. One thing I have internalized is that you have to DO IT YOURSELF. There is no substitute, no shortcut.

I would recommend this approach for every single pair you wish to trade. Prove out everything to yourself as this builds your confidence and creates solidly based beliefs that will help your trading.

Work hard and learn. It is the only way.

edgarandreszm and everyone else reading this for the first time:

What StoragePro says equals survival...............it's that simple; do your own homework AND backtesting!
  • #2,518
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:10pm Aug 6, 2007 3:10pm
Over the last week, I have written a little software that checks for the best S/L and T/P, taking a list of dates in. I have it try every combination (by increments of 5) for 1 lot trades and 2 lots (could handle 3 lots, but would take a long time). So far, with the EUR/USD, tests on 2005, 2006 and 2007 all show the same ideal S/L, and folks, it's higher that one would imagine.
  • #2,519
  • Aug 6, 2007 3:29pm Aug 6, 2007 3:29pm
Quoting Metalhawk
Over the last week, I have written a little software that checks for the best S/L and T/P, taking a list of dates in. I have it try every combination (by increments of 5) for 1 lot trades and 2 lots (could handle 3 lots, but would take a long time). So far, with the EUR/USD, tests on 2005, 2006 and 2007 all show the same ideal S/L, and folks, it's higher that one would imagine.
Are you waiting for someone to ask: "What is the value of the ideal S/L?"...?
  • #2,520
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:53pm Aug 6, 2007 4:53pm
Quoting BeachBum
Are you waiting for someone to ask: "What is the value of the ideal S/L?"...?
Yes, yes I am.

I guess I should share my results so far. I was hoping to wait until I get more in, but here's what I have so far...

Using one lot with a fixed S/L and T/P, the optimal values I got for EURUSD are:

From 05-May-05 to 18-Apr-06: S/L=95 and T/P=240, good for 1560 pips
From 16-May-06 to 26-Jul-07: S/L=95 and T/P=195, good for 1900 pips


Using 2 lots, with a fixed S/L and 2 fixed T/P, one for each lot and moving the second lot's stop to breakeven once the first lot reaches its profit:

From 05-May-05 to 18-Apr-06: S/L=95, T/P1=80 and T/P2=240, good for 1250 pips (actually lower than the 1 lot test for this time period)
From 16-May-06 to 26-Jul-07: S/L=95, T/P1=110 and T/P2=155, good for 2280 pips

Of course, this is using what I consider to be valid crosses, as mentionned in the other thread. One thing I have noticed is that the winning trades ratio is always a little lower than 50% for the more optimal results with this pair...
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