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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,441
  • Apr 15, 2025 10:49am Apr 15, 2025 10:49am
Quoting mortgagee
{quote} I was there when VSA started on forexfactoy...it started with different thread, later Malcolm opened this one. take care
It is great to see such prominent and profitable trader.
Hope the experience of being present in the delivery theatre of this worthy thread has not traumatised you beyond measure.
Best wishes!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,442
  • Apr 15, 2025 12:17pm Apr 15, 2025 12:17pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} it pays well to be preoccupied with profits, profits with indicators are as good as profits without indicators
100%

Too many people, myself included, make the mistake of focusing on the how: indicator(s) vs. no indicator(s), and lose sight of the goal: making profits.

And as I have said many times, I don't trade with indicators, but I do not trade against them either. I am never going long because price closes above a 20 period Exponential Moving Average, but I am only looking to go long when price is above said Moving Average. And when I do go long:

1. I have applied the trigger matrix to the highest volume interval.
2. Price is above halfback (50% line).
3. I see

  1. a. a confirmed Test
  2. b. a confirmed No Supply
  3. c. a confirmed SOS (Like a EVR or Spring )

Sounds like VSA to me...................

Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,443
  • Apr 15, 2025 2:10pm Apr 15, 2025 2:10pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} It is great to see such prominent and profitable trader. Hope the experience of being present in the delivery theatre of this worthy thread has not traumatised you beyond measure. Best wishes!
you are talking nonsense , I am traumatized? if you think so then you are stupid like a dick
  • #36,444
  • Apr 15, 2025 2:51pm Apr 15, 2025 2:51pm
Quoting mortgagee
{quote} you are talking nonsense , I am traumatized? if you think so then you are stupid like a dick
Interesting that you have had urgency to mention anatomy in context of trading.
It is also insightful that stupidity and an important anatomical part have been brought together and assumed that the correlation is correct.
Different people experience may vary considerably, I do not wish to be unkind, but mine is not stupid - it does what it should do with desired regularity, so I would not consider it stupid, though others based on their own experiences might have a different take on the subject.

Seriously, I wish you good profits, in whatever way you trade.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,445
  • Edited 3:58pm Apr 15, 2025 3:38pm | Edited 3:58pm
DOW moves at times with some speed
Gap to the last session close has been closed, it happens regularly.
The PA over the last seven days displays character of a corrective.
Wander whether tomorrow might be a rotation day, with a reasonable move up before falling of the ladder. as Steve Nison would have said it.
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Looking at the compounded NYSE sessions volume I cannot see a clear advantage in applying VSA principles, the only thing that remains to be mentioned that the last two sessions have had smaller ADR with volume below the last five days average
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,446
  • Apr 15, 2025 5:36pm Apr 15, 2025 5:36pm
Quoting 2be
the last two sessions have had smaller ADR with volume below the last five days average
It happened in almost all the markets, this week seems to returning to average volumes as they were before 2 weeks. Last 1-1.5 week week printed ultra high vol in all markets. Now vol across all markets and timeframes seems to be at their average as well as spreads, though lower than recent activity in last few days.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,447
  • Apr 15, 2025 5:49pm Apr 15, 2025 5:49pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Price is above halfback (50% line). 3. I see a. a confirmed Test b. a confirmed No Supply c. a confirmed SOS (Like a EVR or Spring ) Sounds like VSA to me...................
It's really just a simple self-check—a part of your discipline, not the trigger itself.

I can honestly say, if someone has traded VSA successfully for any meaningful period, it never truly leaves them. Even when markets get erratic or none of the usual strategies seem to be working, VSA still lingers in the background.

I’ve experienced this firsthand. There was a time I started doubting VSA and began shifting toward other tools—MFI, volume profile, a couple of EMAs, and volume overlays. I thought I had moved on.

But what I realized later was… I was still trading VSA. Just unconsciously. The way I was reading price and volume, the decisions I was making—it all traced back to the core principles of VSA.

That’s the thing about VSA. It’s so precise when it comes to reading price action through the lens of volume and effort vs. result. Once it’s part of your mindset, it’s hard to unsee those shifts in volume and activity. And it applies just as well from micro timeframes all the way up to the macro view.
Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,448
  • Edited 1:39pm Apr 16, 2025 12:04pm | Edited 1:39pm
Quoting bluesoul
... There was a time I started doubting VSA and began shifting toward other tools—MFI, volume profile, a couple of EMAs, and volume overlays. I thought I had moved on. But what I realized later was… I was still trading VSA. Just unconsciously. The way I was reading price and volume, the decisions I was making—it all traced back to the core principles of VSA. [Emphasis added]
Sometimes I will look at a chart with no volume and see a narrow range (NR7) DOWN bar that closes on its high, and say, "that's a TEST". Especially if there is a wide range DOWN bar closing off its lows in the immediate background.

Even when looking at a chart with no volume, I am always cognizant that weakness, when it appears, usually appears on UP bars. And strength, when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,449
  • Apr 16, 2025 12:15pm Apr 16, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting mortgagee
Long time ago when VSA started it was enough only VSA analysis... Nowadays more and more indicators are added. Even HiddenGap add many indicators....that means only people don't understand VSA... HiddenGap used only one TF...more indicators more confusion. Knowledge how to trade , how market makers trade only counts...
Please post some charts with your analysis on them in order that we all my benefit from your knowledge. That's what this thread is all about- traders helping traders. If bashing is your thing, there's the Euro thread.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,450
  • Edited 1:56am Apr 17, 2025 1:31am | Edited 1:56am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Please post some charts with your analysis on them in order that we all my benefit from your knowledge. That's what this thread is all about- traders helping traders. If bashing is your thing, there's the Euro thread.
Hello HiddenGap.
There is no bashing at all. From time to time I stop by here to see what is going on...I saw your post and then I remembered you. At that time you were saying same as Tom " Charts don't lie..one time frame is enough ...you were using M3 if i remember correctly...you created your indicator four ND and NS and I think you were using WRB. as you know Tom was also using only VSA...

Since you are using now MP then certainly know that Peter Steidlmayer said price goes up to shut off buying and goes down to shut off selling...that is pretty much all about trading.

based on your last post here you changed a lot over time...I still use better volume on MT4.
Please correct me if I am wrong...

take care.
  • #36,451
  • Apr 17, 2025 1:46am Apr 17, 2025 1:46am
Quoting bluesoul
very high probability of distribution, H4 HVZ chart, most probable scenario here, a trap up move and pullback to 3136 & 3098. Price may consolidate longer here. Shorts on clear sign of weakness on lower TFS after a trap up move or test of highs. {image} {image} {image}

Since my last post:

Gold did exactly what we expected — continued higher into a trap-up move, printed new highs, but here’s the catch… it did so on the lowest H4/daily volume since April 3. That’s classic weak demand on markup — red flag number one.

Fast forward to today’s Asian session — we’ve now got an Ultra High Volume (UHV) down bar, sitting right at the top. No follow-through yet, but this bar is now the line in the sand.

A break below this UHV bar = trap confirmed.
If that happens, I’m expecting a sharp markdown — 150 to 200 points easy, targeting the previously marked HVZ zones at 3136 and 3098.

If price stays below today’s UHV bar, we’ve got a textbook no demand + trap combo in play. That’s when markdowns can accelerate fast — especially if follow-up rallies come in with low volume. That would set up a clean test of highs = ideal re-entry short.

Key supports still valid: 3136, 3098, and then 3066 as an extension.

On the flip side — if gold pushes above today’s high with real volume and effort, the short bias is invalid. But as of now, that structure just doesn’t support further upside. We’re in premium distribution territory.


attached is Gold Futures COT Data: Non-Commercial Net Positions.
major movers,
Non-commercials have been unwinding longs for 3 consecutive weeks:

  1. Apr 11: +200,700 (-37,700)
  2. Apr 4: +238,400 (-19,500)
  3. Mar 28: +257,900

This consistent reduction aligns with the distributional narrative, especially after a low-volume breakout — a classic smart money exit pattern while retail chases highs.

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Holy Grail - Patience and Acceptance
  • #36,452
  • Apr 17, 2025 12:43pm Apr 17, 2025 12:43pm
Quoting mortgagee
At that time you were saying same as Tom " Charts don't lie..one time frame is enough ...you were using M3 if i remember correctly...you created your indicator four ND and NS and I think you were using WRB. .
I still use M3 and absolutely still believe :

Charts don't lie.
Therefore ALL charts tell the truth.
And if ALL charts tell the truth, there's no need for more than one.

I've just accepted the idea that indicators can be used to assist in getting to an even greater truth. And that truth is, that the greatest edge a retail trader has is the fact that markets trend.

When I talk about Multiple Time Frame Continuity (MTFC), the use of multiple time frames takes the place on any trend indicators but continues to emphasizes the edge obtained by trading with the trend. With the MTFC concept, I am looking at three charts (W, D, and H) plus the trading chart (M1). But I am actually only looking at the most current interval on the higher time frames. All I am concerned with is whether price is above or below their respective opens.

By the way, Tom did say that "Charts don't lie", but he was always a proponent of using multiple time frames. I used to see this as a flaw of VSA, which you certainly picked up on.

I've grown enough to understand both things can be true. One time frame can be all you need, because every chart tells the truth, for some methods, and some methods work best when multiple time frame analysis of some kind is applied, because the truth carries more weight the more charts that are saying it.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,453
  • Apr 17, 2025 1:55pm Apr 17, 2025 1:55pm
I don't think that using indicators is a sin. I believe that there is a difference between trading from the indicators and trading using help from indicators.

I use indicators in all timeframe that I check to tell me the trend, and is objective which I find very important me, are they perfect? No they are not but makes things easier and either the trend is up is down or sideways which the Indies tell me with objectivity and I can base the decision base on that.

Also one of the things that I found it most important is that the timeframe that I'm trading in, is trending in the direction that I'm going to trade long or short. I did not use to do this and my winning percentage has improved dramatically.

By using different timeframes, if you guys think about it, the only thing that is happening when looking at different timeframes is get into agreement with other traders that look at different charts

Kind regards
  • #36,454
  • Apr 17, 2025 8:58pm Apr 17, 2025 8:58pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} By the way, Tom did say that "Charts don't lie", but he was always a proponent of using multiple time frames...
Just to reiterate this point...

Whenever someone asked Tom during his webinars to look at an intra day time frame, the first thing he would do was check the daily chart.
  • #36,455
  • Apr 20, 2025 9:33am Apr 20, 2025 9:33am
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  • #36,456
  • Edited Apr 21, 2025 5:53am Apr 20, 2025 11:54pm | Edited Apr 21, 2025 5:53am
Somehow I'm not surprised that the trader, that says people who use indicators don't understand VSA, doesn't even have volume on their chart...


Background we have stopping volume, also nice wide spread bar.

1. Squat bar as price drops below the close of the background buying we see buyers step in.

2. No Supply - no low volume down bar, sellers aren't immediately interested in taking price lower.

3. Up bar increasing volume - Buyers interested in taking prices higher as price pushes above the close of the background buying.

4. Fabled bag holding bar , small spread highest volume bar. These aren't common in Forex, market was prepared to buying any and all sell orders.
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  • #36,457
  • Apr 22, 2025 8:02pm Apr 22, 2025 8:02pm
Quick short on EU.

Oanda is being a pain lately with the volume repaint. It isn't everyday and its not on every pair, I'm not sure what is going on overthere.

The Fibbed bar was the highest volume bar of the day at the time of trading. Price dipped below the low, plus we have an extended up move behind us! The bar I marked off was low volume/interesting as price returned to the close of the high volume bar. Price did go higher after the low volume up bar, but the move wasn't sustainable. Really anywhere around that 1.15214 was a solid entry.
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  • #36,458
  • Apr 23, 2025 3:31am Apr 23, 2025 3:31am
Quoting Anotan
Quick short on EU. Oanda is being a pain lately with the volume repaint. It isn't everyday and its not on every pair, I'm not sure what is going on overthere. The Fibbed bar was the highest volume bar of the day at the time of trading. Price dipped below the low, plus we have an extended up move behind us! The bar I marked off was low volume/interesting as price returned to the close of the high volume bar. Price did go higher after the low volume up bar, but the move wasn't sustainable. Really anywhere around that 1.15214 was a solid entry. {image}...
One has to remember that MT4 like many other charting software displays tick volume, that fact alone has implications.
Tick volume represents the activity of a given trading platform only, another important factor to consider
Personally I treat the tick volume as approximate with many variables outside of possibility of it being exact.
Over many years and on different threads the subject of volume has been discussed, I just mentioned the obvious.
As the time progresses the question of price and volume is getting even more complex. adding to it the lagging of the charting software and our own reaction and processing of the PA makes one to consider serious limitations to the otherwise desirable perfect exactness. Perfect exactness is not achievable, even if it was achievable, our brain, eyesight and the finger on the mouse are not fast enough to take the full or even a partial advantage of the close to the utopian desire to have the matter of price and volume sorted out in a manner some of us would like it.
Since I trade only Indices, DOW in particular, I use NYSE session bars and apply the basic VSA principles, being aware that the volume display is an approximation.
Even so it VSA is useful but the correlation of PA and the volume is not an automatic and easy to work out.
In this regard I find VSA basic principles easier to apply on higher TFs, and on shorter TF I use additional insights.
On DOW I observed patterns that seem to repeat themselves with cunning regularity. As usual when there are finances involved, one needs to be aware of the nature of the markets, when something become plainly obvious, for a time being it might be a resolve testing market activity to take your capital away, and after that PA eventually does what one has been hoping for. I have experienced that, and if not careful I am likely to repeat that experience time and again.

Wishing all good and profitable trades!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,459
  • Apr 23, 2025 5:34am Apr 23, 2025 5:34am
Quoting 2be
{quote} One has to remember that MT4 like many other charting software displays tick volume, that fact alone has implications. Tick volume represents the activity of a given trading platform only, another important factor to consider Personally I treat the tick volume as approximate with many variables outside of possibility of it being exact. Over many years and on different threads the subject of volume has been discussed, I just mentioned the obvious. As the time progresses the question of price and volume is getting even more complex. adding...
The pattern of blow up, or blow down after the meaningful signalling bar is often repeated on DOW, NYSE session bars. It can also happen in correlation to gaps, intersession gaps and gaps to the last session close, and taking into account missed previous D pivots
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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,460
  • Edited 7:07am Apr 24, 2025 6:43am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting 2be
{quote} The pattern of blow up, or blow down after the meaningful signaling bar is often repeated on DOW, NYSE session bars. It can also happen in correlation to gaps, intersession gaps and gaps to the last session close, and taking into account missed previous D pivots{image} {image}
Already long on DOW towards the 40k retest
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WRB PA inside of that WRB on US sessions (daily / M30) chart
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Some return to the gap might be on cards, so will add on the move up away from that intersession gap
will also add above the last session close
It is risky, as usual, the ride towards the last session close often presents less risk. What come after that is more risky for any direction - the beauty of trading.
Sorry I have posted it by mistake on VSA thread, though in some ways it follow PA after a bit more complex selling climax.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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