Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

Friday chaos – Nonfarm Payrolls to shake up Gold (XAUUSD) again

A decline in US Nonfarm Payrolls may boost XAUUSD quotes towards 3,160 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 4 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 151 thousand, projected at 137 thousand
2. US unemployment rate: previously at 4.1%, projected at 4.1%
3. Current trend: moving upwards
4. XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025: 3,160 and 3,075

Fundamental analysis

According to the XAUUSD forecast for 4 April 2025, US Nonfarm Payrolls may decline to 137 thousand from the previous 151 thousand. If the actual figure aligns with expectations, the market may see heightened volatility and a temporary weakening of the US dollar.

The Nonfarm Payrolls release consistently generates strong market reactions and can either support the US dollar or make it lose ground.

Today’s XAUUSD analysis also considers that the US unemployment rate for March is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The lack of changes from the previous period would be a neutral factor for the USD.

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EURUSD remains in the eye of the storm: tariff fears dominate the market

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0990 on Monday as market chaos continues. Discover more in our analysis for 7 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair is moving more actively than usual
2. Investors remain concerned about global trade tensions, although the White House maintains its stance
3. EURUSD forecast for 7 April 2025: 1.1146

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading around 1.0990 on Monday.

Volatility remains above average. Investors are assessing the impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policy on inflation and economic growth. The global trade war is only escalating.

Despite the market panic, the White House stands firm on its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs. On Sunday, Trump compared the tariffs to medicine you have to take to fix something. Previously, China agreed on a 34% tariff on all US-made goods, which may prompt similar measures from other countries.

The unfolding tariff saga has intensified fears over US inflation and economic growth, complicating the Fed’s policy path. Markets are now pricing in a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts for 2025.

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Strong data from Japan keeps USDJPY from rising further

The USDJPY pair is slightly declining, currently trading at 147.70. Find more details in our analysis for 8 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Donald Trump announces readiness to begin trade talks with Japan
2. Japan posts a record current account surplus in February 2025
3. USDJPY forecast for 8 April 2025: 146.25

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is retreating after Monday’s sharp rally, where the pair tested the key resistance level at 148.00. The Japanese yen temporarily weakened against the US dollar amid growing uncertainty around global trade — typically a driver of safe-haven demand.

On the political front, Donald Trump confirmed his readiness to start trade negotiations with Japan following a phone call with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The upcoming talks will address a wide range of issues, including tariffs, currency policy, and state subsidies.

Robust economic data keeps the yen from further weakening. In February 2025, Japan recorded a record current account surplus of 4.0607 trillion yen, driven by strong export growth amid high external demand and a decline in imports due to lower energy prices and subdued domestic consumption.

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Gold (XAUUSD) rises, supported by the Fed stance and market demand

Gold (XAUUSD) has climbed to 3,028 USD, with safe-haven demand continuing to drive the metal higher. Discover more in our analysis for 9 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) prices continue to recover following recent volatility
2. Despite April's dip, Gold (XAUUSD) quotes have gained 13% year-to-date
3. XAUUSD forecast for 9 April 2025: 3,046

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices rose to 3,028 USD on Wednesday amid growing safe-haven demand. The escalating trade war fuels fears of global recession and rising inflation.

The US government confirmed that additional tariffs on imports from multiple countries will take effect today, with no exemptions at this stage.

China faces the steepest tariff hike of 104% after it refused to comply with US demands to lift its retaliatory duties on US goods by the deadline. US President Donald Trump also announced that a significant tariff on pharmaceutical imports is expected soon.

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Brent remains highly volatile: new stress ahead?

Brent crude prices are falling again, sliding towards 64.90 USD after a 4% rally in the previous session. Find more details in our analysis for 10 April 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Brent gained 4% in the previous session but has now stalled
2. Trump’s temporary tariff compromise supported prices, but the outlook remains uncertain, potentially curbing growth
3. Brent forecast for 10 April 2025: 64.80 and 64.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are hovering around 64.90 USD. On Wednesday, prices rose by over 4% as investor sentiment improved following the US decision to pause tariff hikes for most countries.

US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day period during which import tariffs would be lowered to 10% in an effort to support ongoing trade talks. The move helped reduce fears of a full-blown trade war, which could trigger a global recession and suppress oil demand.

However, markets remain cautious as China was excluded from this deal, and its tariff rate was raised to 125%.

The latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a larger-than-expected drop in gasoline and distillate inventories, helping offset a moderate rise in crude oil stockpiles.

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EURUSD hits a three-year high: the US dollar is not in demand

The EURUSD rate is testing the 1.1285 level and setting a new peak at 1.1383, with the market concerned about the impact of the US trade war. Find out more in our analysis for 11 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair hits a three-year high and shows no signs of slowing
2. The market remains focused on tariff-related risks and sees reasons for a decline in US GDP
3. US core inflation for March gives reason for the Fed to cut interest rates
4. EURUSD forecast for 11 April 2025: 1.1384

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate touched the 1.1384 level but is now hovering around 1.1285.

The dominant market driver working against the US dollar is concern over the state of the US economy. Investors fear that aggressive tariffs will slow down US growth despite the current 90-day tariff pause.

US inflation data for March came in mixed. The core CPI rose just 2.8% year-on-year, marking the slowest increase since March 2021. This gives markets further reason to anticipate a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

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USDJPY falls sharply – yen takes centre stage as safe-haven asset

The USDJPY pair plummeted to 142.41, with chances to reach new lows being high. Find more details in our analysis for 14 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. The USDJPY pair is testing six-month lows and may go lower
2. The market is focused on the upcoming US-Japan tariff negotiations
3. The Japanese yen is performing strongly as a safe-haven asset
4. USDJPY forecast for 14 April 2025: 142.06

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate fell to 142.41 on Monday, approaching its lowest level in six months. Escalating global uncertainty driven by trade conflicts has increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Markets are closely watching the upcoming trade talks between Washington and Tokyo. Japan’s chief negotiator, Akazawa Ryosei, is set to meet this week with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Japan currently benefits from a reduced 10% tariff rate and aims to secure more favourable terms in ongoing discussions.

The USDJPY forecast is negative.

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Gold (XAUUSD) holds bullish momentum — US risks keep safe havens in demand

Gold is moving steadily toward 3,220 USD as global demand for safe-haven assets remains high. Full details in our analysis for 15 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) continues its upward trend, pausing only for brief consolidations
2. Global investors remain focused on safe-haven assets
3. XAUUSD forecast for 15 April 2025: 3,246

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) is trading near 3,220 USD on Tuesday.

The primary driver for gold remains the heightened level of market uncertainty linked to US trade policy. While new tariffs are currently on pause and trade talks are ongoing, the Trump administration has shifted focus to auto parts — considering removing them from the list of high-tariff items.

Still, that remains speculative. Meanwhile, attention has shifted to key import sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, which may soon face increased tariffs. These sectors are substantial, and the prospect of new duties has fuelled demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Another solid support for gold comes from expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut — markets are currently pricing in around 86 basis points of easing in 2025. Lower interest rates typically benefit gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

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EURUSD is poised for growth: the market awaits weak US sales

The EURUSD pair is rising aggressively, currently trading around 1.1370. Find out more in our analysis for 16 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The US dollar is declining amid market caution ahead of the Fed chair’s speech
2. US March retail sales data is expected today
3. Weak data may support further EURUSD upside
4. EURUSD forecast for 16 April 2025: 1.1565

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is gaining momentum following yesterday’s bearish correction. Buyers are actively pushing towards the 1.1380 resistance level – a breakout here could open the way to new local highs.

The US dollar is weakening as markets turn cautious ahead of today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Traders are waiting for signals regarding the Fed’s next steps amid an economic slowdown and persistent inflation concerns.

All eyes are also on today’s US retail sales data for March. The consensus forecast suggests a 0.2% decline, which may add to pressure on the US dollar and further strengthen the ongoing bullish trend in the EURUSD pair.

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OPEC and US sanctions light the fuse – Brent targets new highs

The outlook for Brent appears bullish, with prices gaining momentum amid US dollar weakness and likely to reach the 67.70 USD resistance level. Find more details in our analysis for 17 April 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Brent crude oil continues its upward move
2. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US): previously at 12.5, projected at 2.2
3. Brent forecast for 17 April 2025: 67.70 USD

Fundamental analysis

Today’s fundamental analysis for Brent takes into account that prices are rising steadily, trading near 66.85 USD per barrel, its highest level since the start of the month.

The recent rally is driven by new US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, including penalties on a Chinese refinery. Prices are also supported by additional voluntary oil output cuts announced by some OPEC members, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan.

According to the forecast for 17 April 2025, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to drop sharply to 2.2 from the previous 12.5. Such a decline would signal weakening US industrial activity, likely weighing on the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Gold (XAUUSD) resumes rally — next target: 3,405 USD

XAUUSD has broken above the upper channel boundary, signalling an end to the recent pullback. The current quote is 3,327 USD. Full analysis for 18 April 2025 below.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold remains in demand amid uncertainty over US trade policy
2. Central banks and private investors continue to accumulate gold
3. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at 3,700 USD by year-end
4. XAUUSD forecast for 18 April 2025: 3,405 USD

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD is regaining strength following a short-term pullback, still trading firmly within an upward channel. Demand for gold remains high as market participants seek refuge from ongoing US trade policy uncertainty.

Investors are reacting to shifting signals from the Trump administration, which is reportedly considering new tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Meanwhile, renewed trade talks with China are back in focus, with Beijing expressing willingness to resume dialogue — albeit under certain conditions.

Analysts highlight continued strong demand for gold from both central banks and private investors. This provides a robust foundation for further price appreciation. According to Goldman Sachs, gold could reach 3,700 USD by the end of 2025.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Crash or opportunity? IMF meeting and falling LEI weigh on USDJPY

The IMF meeting and weak US LEI data may spark a correction in USDJPY before a potential drop to the 140.00 level. Full forecast for 21 April 2025 below.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. IMF Spring Meetings begin today
2. US Leading Economic Index (LEI): previous – -0.3%, forecast – -0.5%
3. USDJPY forecast for 21 April 2025: 140.00 and 141.50

Fundamental analysis

As of 21 April 2025, markets are focused on the start of the IMF Spring Meetings. Amid persistent global headwinds — including high inflation, geopolitical risks, and sluggish growth in major economies — this event may deliver crucial policy statements regarding global financial stability, support for developing economies, and central banks’ future strategies.

In parallel, attention is on the US Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of 10 indicators designed to forecast turning points in the economic cycle. It includes metrics like jobless claims, new orders, and consumer expectations.

A further decline in LEI to -0.5%, as forecasted, would reinforce fears of a slowing US economy or even a looming recession — potentially undermining the dollar and bolstering safe-haven demand for the yen.

The fundamental backdrop for USDJPY remains fragile, with downside pressure likely to persist.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EURUSD surges as pressure mounts on Jerome Powell

The EURUSD rate is gaining for the third consecutive trading session, currently trading at 1.1530. Find out more in our analysis for 22 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. President Donald Trump intensifies criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
2. Traders are concerned about growing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve
3. EURUSD forecast for 22 April 2025: 1.1630

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate continues to rally after rebounding from the 1.1475 support level. Pressure on the US dollar has increased following fresh verbal attacks by President Donald Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Monday, Trump escalated his calls for immediate rate cuts.

Market participants are increasingly concerned about the rising tension between the White House and the Fed. Trump’s actions could be perceived as an attempt to pressure the Fed’s independence, with speculation around a possible replacement of Powell adding to uncertainty and fear in the market, undermining confidence in the US dollar.

Additional support for the EURUSD rally came from investor disappointment over stalled US-China trade negotiations. Beijing accused Washington of misusing tariffs and warned other nations about entering trade deals with the US, which has increased tensions and further weighed on the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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No rescue mission needed: falling PMI will not stop GBPUSD's climb

Positive UK data may trigger a GBPUSD rally towards 1.3420. Discover more in our analysis for 23 April 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. UK services PMI: previously at 52.2, projected at 51.5
2. US services PMI: previously at 54.4, projected at 52.8
3. GBPUSD forecast for 23 April 2025: 1.3420 and 1.3240

Fundamental analysis

The services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a vital economic barometer, reflecting the health of the largest sector in the economy. Based on surveys of purchasing managers, it captures trends in new orders, employment, business confidence, and overall activity.

A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a value below 50.0 signals contraction. Given the dominant role services play in the UK GDP, the indicator is considered crucial for assessing the country’s economic health. Its release often causes strong fluctuations in the national currency exchange rate.

The forecast for 23 April 2025 anticipates a slight dip in UK services PMI to 51.5 points. The decrease is not critical, with the reading remaining above the key 50.0 threshold, which may be potentially positive for the pound.

Fundamental analysis for 23 April 2025 also takes into account the release of the US services PMI, which is expected to decline from 54.4 to 52.8.

Today’s GBPUSD forecast considers all US and UK data, which could support the GBP and spur further gains in the GBPUSD rate once the correction is complete.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Two days of decline behind: Gold (XAUUSD) gears up for an upward spurt

XAUUSD is rebounding from the support level, currently trading at 3,331 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 24 April 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Strong fundamental factors drive demand for Gold
2. Investors view buying on price declines as the optimal strategy in current conditions
3. XAUUSD forecast for 24 April 2025: 3,465

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes are recovering after two days of losses. The decline was driven by rising risk appetite, following statements from Donald Trump about potentially lowering tariffs on Chinese goods and reaching a trade agreement with Beijing.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the current level of tariffs between the US and China is unsustainable and should be reduced before new talks can begin. However, he stressed that Trump has no plans to unilaterally lift tariffs on Chinese imports.

Market participants believe the bullish trend in Gold will continue unless the White House demonstrates a genuine shift in its trade policy. For now, strong fundamentals continue to support demand for Gold, with buying on dips remaining the preferred strategy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Traders brace for a correction in AUDUSD

The AUDUSD rate continues its upward momentum, currently trading at 0.6404. Discover more in our analysis for 25 April 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Private sector activity in Australia continued to rise in April
2. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates in May
3. AUDUSD forecast for 25 April 2025: 0.6315

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate is rising for the second consecutive session, although buyers have yet to break above the 0.6435 resistance level. Trader sentiment shifted after US President Donald Trump stated that trade talks with China would continue, despite denials from Beijing. This uncertainty is capping further gains in the Australian dollar.

Domestic data shows continued growth in Australia’s private sector activity in April, with positive results observed in both manufacturing and services. The S&P Global composite PMI slipped slightly from 51.6 to 51.4, but remains in growth territory.

Despite the encouraging data, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points in May. This is seen as a preventive move amid concerns about the potential negative impact of the newly implemented US trade tariffs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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USDJPY rises above 143.00; will growth continue?

The USDJPY pair climbed to the 144.00 area amid easing trade tensions and ongoing negotiations. Find out more in our analysis for 28 April 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: ongoing tariff negotiations between the US and Japan
2. Current trend: correcting upwards
3. USDJPY forecast for 28 April 2025: 144.00 and 143.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate climbed into the 144 yen per dollar area on Monday, driven by easing global trade tensions. Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is expected to visit Washington this week for a second round of bilateral talks.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold its policy meeting this Thursday. The regulator is widely expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, as policymakers continue to assess the potential impact of newly imposed US tariffs on Japan’s export-oriented economy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EURUSD back at the forefront of demand: markets eye a new wave of risk

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1387 on Tuesday. Risks of a US trade war weigh against the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 29 April 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair is poised to resume growth due to US trade risks
2. China states it is not holding talks with the US, despite Washington’s claims
3. Market risks are taking centre stage again
4. EURUSD forecast for 29 April 2025: 1.1427 and 1.1442

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is holding near 1.1387. The currency market is poised to return to buying as external uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations intensifies. Yesterday, China reiterated that it is not currently engaged in negotiations with Washington.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that easing tensions depends on China, emphasising that Chinese exports to the US significantly exceed imports.

The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data due later this week. On Wednesday, the first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP will be released alongside the crucial core PCE inflation component – a key metric for the Federal Reserve. On Friday, labour market data for April will be published. These figures will provide investors with numerous signals for evaluating the prospects of the Fed’s monetary policy.

Should the data point to weakening economic indicators, expectations for an imminent monetary easing by the Federal Reserve would rise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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GBPUSD breaks three-year highs

The GBPUSD rate continues to climb confidently, setting a new three-year high at 1.3443. Market participants are awaiting key US data today, including ADP employment figures and Q1 GDP. Find more details in our analysis for 30 April 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: ADP employment data and Q1 GDP figures will be released during the American session today
2. Current trend: uptrend in place
3. GBPUSD forecast for 30 April 2025: 1.3443 and 1.3300

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair surged to a three-year high, driven by expectations that the Bank of England will proceed more cautiously with rate cuts compared to other major central banks. Markets are currently pricing in around 85 basis points of easing for 2025, similar to the Fed’s outlook.

Today’s spotlight is on key US economic indicators, with April’s ADP employment report and the Q1 GDP reading scheduled for release. The ADP reading is expected to grow by 118 thousand, with GDP up 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected results could support the US dollar and lead to a pullback in the GBPUSD pair, while weaker data would likely fuel further gains for the pound.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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Gold (XAUUSD) in the green: demand for safe-haven assets on the rise

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 3,260 USD. With elevated risk levels, the precious metal finds strong support. Discover more in our analysis for 5 May 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Gold (XAUUSD) is on the rise, driven by demand for safe-haven assets
2. The market closely follows US-China trade tensions, awaiting concrete developments
3. XAUUSD forecast for 5 May 2025: 3,276

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices climbed to 3,260 USD on Monday. Amid high uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks, demand for safe-haven assets is increasing. This is an environment in which gold traditionally thrives.

The core issue lies in the lack of clarity. US President Donald Trump claims China is inclined to strike a deal, while Beijing insists specific conditions must be met before any discussions can proceed. The ongoing holidays in China add further ambiguity.

Gold also finds support in the weakening of the US dollar, making the metal more attractive to investors using other currencies.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its policy meeting this week. Although a rate cut would benefit gold, such a move is unlikely at this stage.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team