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Nasdaq 30 second Opening Range Breakout (ORB) 5 replies

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MePip 5M ORB Trading

  • #61
  • Apr 2, 2025 11:23am Apr 2, 2025 11:23am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Hi Bluesteele, (was about to write hi BS but that looked wrong ) Main reason is that I dont want any overnight exposure. I want to be flat with no risk. And 2 PM is the time my backtesting suggested was a good time to close. PC
LoL.. my initials something I missed when I chose my username

2pm .. sort of what I thought that you're testing showed that.. there are many days that the market reverses at 2:00.

I think there is merit to somebody developing a breakout system bracketed around that 2:00 p.m. candle.
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #62
  • Apr 3, 2025 1:44pm Apr 3, 2025 1:44pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Second account..took +130..it was a looooong day, trade lasted almost 6 hours. Thank you PipCruiser and Mr. Market. {image}
Any chance you can share the bot here ?
  • #63
  • Apr 4, 2025 7:12am Apr 4, 2025 7:12am
Quoting ForexHelp
{quote} Any chance you can share the bot here ?
Of Course Not, it took 5 years of hard 14 hours a day work to develop it.
  • #64
  • Apr 4, 2025 8:51am Apr 4, 2025 8:51am
Quoting ForexHelp
{quote} Any chance you can share the bot here ?
The Grail is for me, I don't know for you. To each his own.
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  • #65
  • Apr 4, 2025 9:59am Apr 4, 2025 9:59am
Normally I dont trade Friday, but bcs of the volatile market I activated the bot, shorts only.

It paid off, even I broke my own rules.

Have a great weekend.

PC
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  • #66
  • Apr 6, 2025 3:20am Apr 6, 2025 3:20am
Quoting BfromG
If I may ask; it seems your TradingView bot places the orders directly with the broker. Do you interact with the broker API? Which broker do you use? Is it OANDA?
Did you read post 1?

PC
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  • #67
  • Apr 11, 2025 10:53pm Apr 11, 2025 10:53pm
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Cheers, last Wednesday was a homerun 15 R on two contracts... happy days. PC {image}
Wow PC, that was awesome! Why didn't the bot take profit at 2.5R though?
  • #68
  • Apr 12, 2025 2:18am Apr 12, 2025 2:18am
I have been digging up some data on the 5 minute ORB when trading ES (US500). That's my primary market.

It seems on the first breakout, there is a 21% win rate if you hold the position aiming for about 10 points - rather disappointing.
However it it fails and takes off in the other direction, the win rate doubles to about 42% which offers more than enough of an edge if you cut your losses quick.

I was watching the market about a week ago with profitfarmer and it became obvious that a better strategy would be to Fade the first breakout out of the 5 minute ORB then take the breakout if it moved the opposite direction as a trend trade.
This strategy only fails on trending days which normally is only a few of them if Trump stops mucking up the markets.

Looking at Liquidity levels around the 5 Minute ORB, it does seem big market players target weak breakouts by Fading these weaker trends.
I looked at 15 Minute & 30 Minute ORB's but didn't notice any big player interest here in breakouts so the 5 Min ORB is defindely traded by many smaller retail players.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #69
  • Apr 12, 2025 3:33am Apr 12, 2025 3:33am
Quoting Andy1trades
{quote} Wow PC, that was awesome! Why didn't the bot take profit at 2.5R though?
On futures I use much wider TPs.

PC
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  • #70
  • Apr 12, 2025 3:34am Apr 12, 2025 3:34am
Quoting RickM
I have been digging up some data on the 5 minute ORB when trading ES (US500). That's my primary market. It seems on the first breakout, there is a 21% win rate if you hold the position aiming for about 10 points - rather disappointing. However it it fails and takes off in the other direction, the win rate doubles to about 42% which offers more than enough of an edge if you cut your losses quick. I was watching the market about a week ago with profitfarmer and it became obvious that a better strategy would be to Fade the first breakout out of the...
Very interesting!

Is your intel based on break of ORB or closed outside on a 5 min candle?

Cheers

PC
Less is more...
  • #71
  • Apr 12, 2025 5:25am Apr 12, 2025 5:25am
Quoting RickM
I have been digging up some data on the 5 minute ORB when trading ES (US500). That's my primary market. It seems on the first breakout, there is a 21% win rate if you hold the position aiming for about 10 points - rather disappointing. However it it fails and takes off in the other direction, the win rate doubles to about 42% which offers more than enough of an edge if you cut your losses quick. I was watching the market about a week ago with profitfarmer and it became obvious that a better strategy would be to Fade the first breakout out of the...
Super cool Data!

You love the VWAP as I got.

Have you noticed anything for this logic?

IF Price below VWAP and Price breaks above 5min ORB then fade?
Vice versa for breaks below?
  • #72
  • Apr 12, 2025 6:01am Apr 12, 2025 6:01am
Quoting pipcruiser
{quote} Very interesting! Is your intel based on break of ORB or closed outside on a 5 min candle? Cheers PC
Hi pipcruiser

Its the break of the 5 minute ORB when the 1 minute candle closes outside range.
This is because the liquidity outside the ORB is all stacked in 1 Tick levels away from the ORB range. The Algorithm programs only seem to focussed on maybe the first 10 levels (10 Ticks) from this area before deciding whether there is enough liquidity to advance the trend more or if there is real lack of liquidity. they will Fade price.
The 5 Minute Candle is too large a range to be able to determine this information, the 1 minute candle is closer to the action.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #73
  • Apr 12, 2025 6:23am Apr 12, 2025 6:23am
Quoting CogAlpha
{quote} Super cool Data! You love the VWAP as I got. Have you noticed anything for this logic? IF Price below VWAP and Price breaks above 5min ORB then fade? Vice versa for breaks below?
Hi Cog

I suppose the big tipoff came from Ken Griffin who founded Citadel Securities in 1990. He revealed during a Senate enquiry few years back that VWAP was coded into many of his firm's Algorithm programs which they use to trade US equity markets with. Therefore many Algorithm programs will favour shorts below VWAP and Longs above VWAP.
If we look at the last 3 trading days on ES, we can see the first breakout can fail however the market direction seems to follows the above rules.
Never get trapped with short positions above VWAP or Long positions below VWAP.
But profiting from this information is a lot harder in reality because they like to shake us small guys out long before the final direction is revealed.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #74
  • Edited 11:56am Apr 12, 2025 11:41am | Edited 11:56am
Anybody ever used edgeful.com?

Looks like a handytool to get an edge....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoBI4lYB3fM
Inserted Video

Inserted Video


Will look into it...

PC
Less is more...
  • #75
  • Apr 12, 2025 3:35pm Apr 12, 2025 3:35pm
Quoting pipcruiser
Anybody ever used edgeful.com? Looks like a handytool to get an edge.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoBI4lYB3fM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNwggG4fLeU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AzDK3ErBaI Will look into it... PC
Hey PC,,,

I think it could be very useful for traders,,, I looked at it when it first came out.. But back then many of the reports could not be customized with variable start times..As I was predominately trading everything else but the indices..

And using 15min ORB with 1hr IB..I could not set Crude to 9am..nor Gold to 820 Silver 825 etc and all of my setups are based off the Opens.

But I know they have added a whole pile of new goodies and seemingly endless variables you can plug in..
Back then I think was $150 mth for the top tier subscription,,,and for not doing what I wanted then.. I passed

But now for $50 mth and alot more to the software now... I have been mulling over whether I will add it...
For me my only holdback is ive rebirthed lol ,, moving more & more into a simpler simpler mode..and do I want to add more rules and or filters ?

I know myself and how I can chase rabbits down the hole lol..It's like driving thru the backroads..
wandering whats around the next turn or hiking/wading a remote river...always looking for the next hole or beautiful tailout ....
Needless to say Ive driven thousands of miles of logging roads and hiked/waded countless kms on rivers lol...
Edgeful may put me over haha.

I have accumulated years of data on the ES for ex ..all by historical backtesting each day by hand...calculating IB single breaks double breaks..IB Retracement levels and IB expansion levels etc...and I think my biggest reason I havent subscribed is that old school part of me..

Where I am of the firm belief I am farther ahead from seeing each of those 5min charts for say 5yrs of data.
Observing the biggy of all "Nuances" things you simply cant get from software.

But then I could perhaps narrow my focus with edgeful LOL... down the hole I go hahaha !

I say go for it and I would be happy to hear what you say about it

And my short answer is Nope I havent used it..only previewed it when first came out.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #76
  • Apr 13, 2025 2:56am Apr 13, 2025 2:56am
Quoting pipcruiser
This thread is about trading the 5M Opening Range Break (ORB) of the NY session. This strategy is nothing new, its been around for years and I did not invent nothing new, what I did is having my coder to 100% automate the strategy so all trades are automatically executed on my broker (Interactive Brokers). Also I play with many different filters to get the highest PF. This trading method I have found easy, free from lagging indicators, quick and with good results trading this the last months. I log my trading in chatGPT so I asked "her" to give...
Can this also be used in the Forex market?
Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.
  • #77
  • Apr 13, 2025 8:26am Apr 13, 2025 8:26am
Quoting dokopy
{quote} Can this also be used in the Forex market?
I wont be as useful...

the NY open has a lot more meaning in the indice/stock world than in FX.
So the volatility/moves generally are a lot more inconsistent in FX for the ORB to be useful
  • #78
  • Apr 13, 2025 10:52am Apr 13, 2025 10:52am
Stumbled upon this site also: https://www.orbsetups.com/

PC
Less is more...
  • #79
  • Apr 22, 2025 2:22am Apr 22, 2025 2:22am
This indicator can be useful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 INDI STANDAR ALL TF.ex4   167 KB | 336 downloads
Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.
  • #80
  • Apr 29, 2025 5:40pm Apr 29, 2025 5:40pm
Quoting RickM
However it it fails and takes off in the other direction, the win rate doubles to about 42% which offers more than enough of an edge if you cut your losses quick.

@RickM
Was the above-mentioned 42% win rate calculated with a 10-pont Profit Target? If yes, what was the Stop Loss? Thanks!
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