MePip 5M ORB Trading

This thread is about trading the 5M Opening Range Break (ORB) of the NY session.

This strategy is nothing new, its been around for years and I did not invent nothing new, what I did
is having my coder to 100% automate the strategy so all trades are automatically executed on my
broker (Interactive Brokers). Also I play with many different filters to get the highest PF.

This trading method I have found easy, free from lagging indicators, quick and with good results trading this the last months.

I log my trading in chatGPT so I asked "her" to give a breakdown of my strategy:

ORB Method – Precision Breakout Trading Strategy

The ORB Method is a structured breakout trading strategy designed for precision, consistency, and risk management. It leverages the volatility of the first five minutes of the NY open and executes trades on the 1-minute timeframe to capture high-probability breakouts. The strategy follows strict trade execution rules to maximize returns and protect capital.

Trading Instruments

1. Stocks traded: Volatile BIG stocks like NVDIA, TSLA seems to perform best, but I also trade it on ie. QQQ and WMT.
2. Trading session: NY open to 5:00 PM ET. (but often all trades are over within 1 hour)

Entry Criteria: First 5-Minute Breakout on the 1-Minute Timeframe

1. Identify the first 5 1-minute candles at NY open.
2. Wait for a breakout above/below this range. (we do not wait for 1M candle close, we enter instantly when a level is broken.)
3. Execute the trade with a well-defined entry based on the breakout direction.

Trade Management Rules

1. Stop Loss (SL): Set at the midline of the ORB range.
2. Profit Target:
   1. At 1:1.5 RR, move SL to breakeven + SL range (so BE is 1R profit). Depending on stock, some I add one a 2. trade when I have secured BE plus 1R.
   2. Final TP: 2.5 RR.

3. Only one trade per stock per day (conservative), on some stocks I trade both directions, but max one long, one short.

Biggest Challenge
Maintaining discipline and consistency while following the strategy without interference.

The ORB Method is designed for efficiency, risk control, and disciplined execution, making it an ideal strategy for systematic breakout trading at market open on the 1-minute timeframe.

A few notes/findings:

I have applied a range of extra filters, i.e.:

If a breakout is around the same price as the opening price, dont trade as its often becomes resistance. Also if there is
a weekly/monthly/yearly high/low level close, abort trade.

If the range is huge, dont trade (or use smaller TP/SL)

It also works great on stocks which have a big (more than 3%) overnight gap. Why? Because these stocks often have great
volatility up or down at the open. You can check online there are many great scanners for GAPs, also TradingView have a good one.

I also test some extra filters, ie dont trade on Fridays, as often its a sideway momentum.

Thats it guys, enjoy.

PC


Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away. (Antoine de Saint-Exupery)

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. (Jeff Rich)

Explained very precisely. Many thanks!

Great share, thanks. Did "she" mention which stocks to focus on and ones to avoid? When you say to avoid when the range is huge, do you compare the range to the average over the past 100 days or some other metric?

You welcome buddy. Lol "She" just summarized what I already prompted her long time ago.

In general I found it best to trade only the MEGA stocks with huge volume and marketcap over 10 Bn. If you trade smaller stocks you often get bad fills (slippage) etc. I trade most often NVDIA, TSLA, NIKE, WMT, UBER, DOCU etc. So a rule of thump, if you never heard about the stock, dont trade it!

Also see above re. daily GAP stocks, they can be good also, but requires more adjustments everyday before market open. Also, even some GAP stocks fits the criteria (mcap and volume) some are not allowed to short, so also check this before selecting them.

Regarding range I use ATR 100 (chart). That being said I oversee the bot like a hawk.
As mentioned my bot executes all, so I have become a "bot babysitter" meaning, I watch/check all executions live and check at the same time my brokers trades, just to make sure all is well. (Kind of like a captain just sitting standby if something goes wrong!)

PC

Here is how MePip ORB ES Futures equity line looked March 1-15 trading both sides of the range with 1 contract per $100K, with RR 1:1, Profit 3.58% with Relative DD -3.68%.

BE filter was not used.
SL at 50% of the Profit of the Range was not used.

Today ES Futures demo trading, with BE at Profit of 50% of the Range, +10 points.

Without BE at 50% of the range it would of been BE for today. -10, +10.

My trades today 2R.

Thank you for posting. Am i understanding the numbers on the chart correctly, you broke even today, except you are profitable on UBER? If not, can you point out how you see it.

2R net.

PC

Why do you place - 175 if it was a 2R Profitable long trade?
and why short QQQ trade was not taken, as it broke the range first?

175 is the lotsize (amount of shares traded) amigo and no short (would have been BE) bcs of filter.

PC

Do you always trade the same Stocks?
If not, how do you decide which ones you want to trade and how many of those?

How long have you been trading this setup?

Sorry for the 350 questions.. I am just a curious guy..

There is always a risk for false breakout, so from my understanding, many have traded the ORB with break and retest so as to be safer.

Hi there, I have been trading ORB on/off the last year but have been busy with other things, now I tend to only trade this strategy, as it fits my schedule and all I have to do is make sure my bot executes.

I scan/backtest tickers once a week to analyze which are doing good, I trade on 5-10 different pairs.

PC

Yes, thats another way to trade the ORBs, when this happens I am mostly stopped out at 1:1R.

PC

Not a bad week...+15 today. Why 15? It is based on my ideas of volatility.

I trade hourly charts but this 5 Min idea, could be amuse-bouche in the morning..

6R day. I dont trade Fridays so no trades tomorrow.

PC

Cumulative Performance (March 17-20, 2025)
• Total Trades: 37 • Cumulative Win Rate: 62.2% (23/37) (Including BE as Wins) • Cumulative SL Rate: 37.8% (14/37)

Before somebody asks, on some stocks, I (my bot) add to winners, so when SL is moved to BR plus 1R, I initiate a 2. trade, same TP as original trade.

PC

Looking at NVDA today, the opening 5min range was 2.21. The 100 ATR (regular trading hours only) at the close of the 5min candle was 0.5617 which is 3.93x the ATR. Is this the type of calculation you look at to determine whether a range is too big?

My filter is ATR x 5, if over no trade (or adjsut TP/SL before when I was trading manually)

PC